This Week in Stats: Liverpool, Real Madrid promise goals

As Real Madrid and Liverpool prepare for the Champions League final in Kiev on 26 May, we take a look at the key stats from their 2017-18 campaigns.

Real Madrid and Liverpool both have strong love affairs with the Champions League. With 12 titles to their name, the Spanish giants are the most successful team in the tournament’s history. But Liverpool have won five themselves, and will hold the third most titles outright if they win in Kiev.

The teams have met in the final before, way back in 1981. Liverpool emerged triumphant in Paris on that occasion, but the far more recent meetings (in 2014-15) went the way of Real.

Ahead of the final, This Week in Stats has taken a look at their 2017-18 numbers from domestic and European soccer. How do the two sides match up?

Attack

Believe it or not, these two teams have scored an identical number of goals in the league and Champions League proper this season. Real Madrid netted 94 in Spain and 30 and Europe, while Liverpool bagged 84 in the Premier League and a stunning 40 in the Champions League.

They even have similarly performing top scorers. Mohamed Salah has found the net 42 times in the two main competitions this season, while Cristiano Ronaldo has just one goal fewer.

However, Liverpool have the edge for variety of scorers in the Champions League. Ronaldo may be the tournament’s top scorer with 15, but next in line for Real is Karim Benzema on four. Liverpool’s front three have all scored freely in Europe this season, with Salah and Roberto Firmino on 10, and Sadio Mane just behind on nine.

Jurgen Klopp’s team have prospered by having a spell of intense goalscoring against all of their European opponents this season. They scored three goals in the opening 20 minutes in matches with Hoffenheim, Maribor and Spartak Moscow. The first half hour of matches with Sevilla and Manchester City saw them rattle in three too.

The scoring may have taken a little longer against Porto and Roma, but in both examples Liverpool scored at least four in 45 minutes in the middle of the match. They may need to blitz Real Madrid in similar fashion.

Real’s scoring has been more balanced, time-wise, but they’ve scored lots of key goals late on, and none more so than Ronaldo’s 97th-minute penalty to knock Juventus out in the quarterfinals. Tottenham, Borussia Dortmund and PSG all also conceded in the final 10 minutes of matches as well. With Liverpool known to fade late on, this could make the difference.

Defense

It’s rare to see Liverpool have an edge in the goals against column, but that’s the case when they’re compared to Real Madrid.

The Reds have conceded 51 goals in the league and Champions League proper, keeping 23 clean sheets along the way. As for Zinedine Zidane’s team, their figures are 59 and 13 respectively. While Liverpool have a 6-3 clean sheet lead in this competition, they’ve had a much easier run to the final; half of their clean sheets came against Maribor and Spartak Moscow.

Even so, keeping Manchester City at bay at Anfield proved vital in securing their passage to the last four. No other side in England or the Champions League restricted City to one goal across 180 minutes this season either.

Real may have had a tough run to the final, but they’ve only kept one clean sheet against teams from somewhere other than Cyprus. Zidane’s side conceded the first goal of the tie against both PSG and Bayern Munich, while Juventus scored three at the Bernabeu. As both teams have fearsome attacks, the difference in defensive performance may make all the difference in Kiev.

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Underlying statistics

While Real Madrid finished their La Liga campaign with 76 points, their lowest tally since 2006-07, they actually had a better expected goals difference than Barcelona. Granted, it was just 0.2 better, but the league table doesn’t suggest they were so closely matched.

It was Barca’s defensive strength which edged it, as they conceded 48 percent fewer goals than the underlying numbers expected, while Real largely performed to par.

However, in Europe they’ve over-performed at the back, and particularly in the knockout stages. Keylor Navas has conceded eight goals from chances worth a total of 13.6 expected goals in the last three rounds.

It’s just as well Real’s defense has done well, as they’ve performed below par up front both in league and Europe. Their 124 goals came from chances valued at 134.1 xG by FiveThirtyEight, and the semifinal was the only knockout round where they outscored the quality of chances they had. Bayern Munich could easily be the side preparing for the final this week.

It won’t surprise anyone to hear Liverpool’s over-achievement has come in attack, but their numbers at both ends are strong. The Reds had the second best expected goals difference in the English top flight, and nobody is catching City there, while they have the best figure in the Champions League.

Klopp’s team deservedly beat Roma, but scoring a goal more than expected in both legs against City proved the difference there. In total, they’ve scored about 12 goals more than their chance quality would suggest, but have conceded about the right amount.

The bookmakers have Real Madrid as narrow favorites, but as the numbers in this article will attest, this match could easily go either way. It’s an incredibly tough one to call, but goals look to be guaranteed.