MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Saturday May 26
Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Friday’s MLB DFS slate was dominated by starting pitching as the four top fantasy performers were all pitchers with James Paxton, Ross Stripling, Joe Musgrove and Patrick Corbin all topping the slate while Max Scherzer, the “can’t miss” SP1 managed only 11 fantasy points on the back of 6 IP, 4 ER and only 4 K’s and those who chose to fade him, made out nicely on this night.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Pitching:
Happy Memorial Day weekend all! We have an interesting split slate here to attack on Saturday with a solid eight game early slate on FantasyDraft which starts at 4PM EST where every single game starts within a 5 minute span – so no late slate hammers or line-up issues to worry about, we should have all the information we need.
When looking at the pitching on this slate you will notice a decided lack of elite options with the top priced arms in many cases over-priced relative to their upside. Aaron Nola ($23.9K) is the top arm on the slate and does have some interesting K upside when you consider he has a 30% K rate against RHB over the last two season and will likely face a Blue Jays team with only three left-handed bats. The issue with Nola is really just the price, it becomes tough to pay this price when you consider he only has one double-digit strikeout game in the entire season.
I wonder however if the price tag on Nola will scare enough people away where we can take advantage in GPP’s. Think about it this way – Nola’s K rate of 30% plus against right-handed batters is simply worlds above the K upside of any other arm on this slate and the last time Nola faced a right-handed heavy team at home he struck out 12 San Francisco Giants so there is upside here that frankly no other arm available to us can match and that alone makes him worthy of discussion as our SP1. Keep an eye on the Blue Jays line-up today as if we get a right-handed heavy squad with only Granderson, Smoak and Solarte hitting from the left side, I think you find a way to fit in Nola.
Daniel Mengden ($13.7K) headlines the ho-hum SP2 range of solid home favorites (-155) against weak opponents that strike-out with a start against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona on the season has a 26% K rate against right-handed pitching which is the third highest mark in all of baseball this season so there is certainly K upside to be had here with Mengden. What I like about Mengden as my SP2 is he gives you a solid cash game floor due to his run prevention ability – giving up 2 or fewer runs in four straight starts and although he has typically been a guy that will only give you 4-5 K’s per outing, there is a bit more ceiling in this spot due to the opponent.
If you are looking for a YOLO play, keep in mind that the Rays will employ their reliever/starter strategy again today with RHP Ryne Stanek “starting” the game and then turning it over to LHP Anthony Banda as the “starter.” We saw Ryan Yarborough excel in this spot last night with 7 innings and 8 K’s and Banda did have a 27% K rate at AAA this season so if you need a deep GPP play as your SP2, Banda is an intriguing option.
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots for Early Slate:
Alright Jason Vargas, I see what you did there – you tried to trick us with your “gem” against the Marlins and you think people will believe you are actually not awful – well my friend, I am not fooled! Vargas is a pitcher who on the season is giving up a .246 ISO and 35% HC rate to right-handed batters and will have to face a Brewers team loaded with actual pop (unlike the Marlins) from the right side. Ryan Braun, Jesus Aguilar and Lorenzo Cain all have .230+ ISO’s against LHP this season with 35% hard contact rates and will sit at the core of my roster builds on this slate.
Another soft-tossing left-handed we can target today is Jaime Garcia who will head to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies and with a .214 ISO and 39% HC rate against right-handed batters so far this season. There are some intriguing cheap bats on the Phillies side that makes paying up for Nola as our SP1 a bit more feasible as we can lock in guys like Maikel Franco ($7.4K) and Aaron Altherr ($6.7K) who both have .220+ ISO’s against LHP this season with 35% hard contact rates and can be paired with the big bats of Rhys Hoskins and Odubel Herrera. Although Hoskins has struggled this year, remember this is a guy who had a .400+ ISO versus LHP last season and the price now down $8.5K represents a nice discount on a player with massive power upside.
MLB on-base percentage leaders (minimum 100 PA):
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) May 25, 2018
1. Brandon Nimmo, .444
2. Mike Trout, .443
3. Mookie Betts, .436
4. Freddie Freeman, .424
5. Kris Bryant, .418
This may be a but of a homer pick, but check out this tweet about Mets OF Brandon Nimmo ($7.2K) and peruse his recent game logs and tell me you aren’t intrigued. Nimmo on the season has a 197 wRC+ which is the third highest mark in all of baseball, just behind Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani and above guys like Mike Trout and J.D. Martinez – yes I know it is a small sample size but with his recent form, Nimmo is one of my favorite one-off plays on this slate. The Mets will take on RHP Chase Anderson, a pitcher who has been able to generate swings and misses and tons of soft contact against LHB so this is not a spot I would stack the Mets bats but the heart of their order with guys like Nimmo, Conforto, Bruce and Cabrera are all priced in this $7-8$K range which makes them a nice mini-stack option if you are paying up for Nola and need the salary savings.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
SP: Aaron Nola ($23.9K)
SP: Daniel Mengden ($13.7K)
IF: Rhys Hoskins ($8.5K)
IF: Maikel Franco ($7.4K)
IF: Jesus Aguilar ($8K)
OF: Ryan Bruan ($8.2K)
OF: Lorenzo Cain ($9K)
OF: Aaron Altherr ($6.6K)
UTIL: Brandon Nimmo ($7.2K)
UTIL: MIchael Conforto ($7.3K)
Slate Overview: As much as I believe Aaron Nola is overpriced today, I also recognize his 30% K rate against RHP sets him up as the sole pitcher capable of setting the cash line on his own and for that reason, I think you should find a way to build around him. I believe there is enough value/mid-tier bats with upside in Philadelphia and Milwaukee specifically where you can easily pay up for Nola without having to sacrifice much offensive upside and this looks to be a viable build in both cash games and GPP’s.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Pitching:
The Main Slate pitching is pretty intriguing as we have two aces facing off against each other in Lance McCullers and Carlos Carrasco with Houston and Cleveland’s dynamic offenses on the other side of those match-ups which makes me more inclined to pay up for Alex Wood ($19.7K) as my SP1 in a home start versus the Padres.
Wood is the largest favorite on the board at -195 and will take on a Padres team that he already beat this year with a 5 plus innings of shut out ball with 7K’s and 24 fantasy points. Wood is never going to be a guy who goes deep into games but it seems like FantasyDraft has factored that risk into his price here and for under $20K he becomes an easy SP1 choice in my opinion against a Padres team that has a paltry 2.7 run total.
Finding an SP2 on this slate is a bit dicey and although going all the way down to LHP Wade LeBlanc ($8.4K) may seem risky, LeBlanc has actually been much better this season than I honestly had realized. The Mariners LHP has now gone three straight starts with 5+ innings and had given up only 3 ER’s total in his last four starts which covers 20+ innings. This is not a case of smoke and mirrors either as LeBlanc has given up only a 29% hard contact rate and this Minnesota team is one that has some sneaky K upside which adds to the potential value for LeBlanc here.
The Twins on the season have a 25.7% K rate which is fifth highest in baseball against LHP this season and when you consider that LeBlanc is a -142 home favorite who has returned 12+ fantasy points in each of his last four starts, this seems like a price point that LeBlanc should have no issue paying off and the salary savings allow you to get any and all the bats you could possibly want.
MLB DFS – Top Main Slate Hitting Spots:
One of the benefits of dropping down to LeBlanc as an SP2 is that you can load up on bats and although we have a game in Coors Field that will certainly draw its fair share of ownership, I actually think the Yankees-Angels game is the spot to stack tonight if you have the salary savings. With 80+ degree temperatures and 10 MPH winds blowing out to left fied and Sonny Gray and Jaime Barria on the mound, there is a lot to like with the big bats on both sides here and I think it makes for a great pivot stack off the chalky Coors Field.
Sonny Gray has been a disaster at home in his Yankee career as he has pitched to a 6.48 ERA thus far in 2018 with 18 ER and 5 HR allowed in only 24 IP after pitching to a 5.65 ERA in Yankee Stadium last year with 18 ER and 8 HR in only 28 innings. The right-handed batters have been the issue for Gray at home this year with a 3 HR/9 mark and overall RHB have a 39% HC rate against Gray this season so I am going to lock in Mike Trout ($11.1K) and Justin Upton ($7.3K) and fill out the stack with Shohei Ohtani ($8.3K).
On the Yankees side, although Barria has been exceptional this season and limiting the HR ball and opposing ISO, he has not had to face the Yankees in Yankee Stadium. Aaron Judge ($10.8K) and Didi Gregorious ($8.1K) both have .300+ ISO’s against RHP this season and a 37% hard contact rate and for Didi specifically this sets up as a great match-up as Barria is a heavy slider pitcher, throwing it nearly 35% of the time which is a pitch that Didi has hammered for a .242 ISO since 2016.
Outside of this game, I plan to fade Coors entirely and instead focus on the Cubs bats against Chris Stratton, a pitcher with a 4.71 xFIP and a massive 46% hard contact rate to opposing batters. Stratton has surrendered a .209 ISO to LHB this season with a 41% HC rate which puts Anthony Rizzo ($9.1K) in play as one of my top bats on the slate but do not overlook the righted handed batters like Kris Bryant ($10K) as Stratton has given up an absurd 53% HC rate to RHB this season. The wind looks to be an immaterial factor (only 5 MPH) so the Cubs bats will not get the same buzz as the Rockies or even the Yankees/Angels which makes them a great pivot stack against arguably the worst pitcher on the slate.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
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SP: Alex Wood ($19.7K)
SP: Wade LeBlanc ($8.4K)
IF: Anthony Rizzo ($9.1K)
IF: Kris Bryant ($10K)
IF: Ben Zobrist ($7.2K)
OF: Mike Trout ($11.1K)
OF: Shohei Ohtani ($8.3K)
OF: Justin Upton ($7.3K)
UTIL: Aaron Judge ($10.8K)
UTIL: Didi Gregorious ($8.1K)
Slate Overview: Although Alex Wood feels like the chalk SP1, I think pivoting down to LeBlanc as an SP2 will be a low-owned move that I not only believe has great point per dollar upside, but it opens up the salary to stack up the best hitters on the board. If you want to go Coors Field you certainly have the option to with LeBlanc as an SP2 but I think stacking up the other top bats from the Cubs, Yankees and Angels has every bit the upside at a fraction of the ownership! Good luck today all and enjoy the day.
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!