Who the Rockets play in place of Chris Paul will tell us how they want to play

Chris Paul is out for Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals. Mike D’Antoni now has a very big decision to make. For the last two games, D’Antoni has rolled with a seven-man rotation consisting of only Paul, James Harden, Trevor Ariza, and Clint Capela in the starting lineup, and Eric Gordon and Gerald Green coming off the bench.

We know Gordon will slide in with the starters in place of Paul. Given how D’Antoni works, we also know Green is likely to see an uptick in minutes. But who picks up the remainder? How D’Antoni decides to play things will tell us a lot about how the Rockets want to play without Paul.

Option 1: Luc Mbah a Moute

Based on his early-series rotations, it’s pretty clear D’Antoni planned on playing Mbah a Moute in this series. Mbah a Moute’s shoulder injury has basically made that impossible, as he is unable to even attempt proper shots near the rim because he’s in such great discomfort.

That said, using Gordon as the secondary playmaker, boosting Green’s minutes, and turning to Mbah a Moute for as long as he can go until the Warriors figure out how to play him off the floor is Houston’s best chance of replicating the strategy they’ve used to take a 3-2 lead. Mbah a Moute was Houston’s best and most switchable defender during the regular season. He was one of just seven players in the NBA who defended point guards, shooting guards, small forwards, and power forwards on at least 15 percent of his defensive possessions, per an analysis of Second Spectrum matchup data performed by Krishna Narsu and myself. He would rather easily slide into the heavy-switching scheme the Rockets are employing in this series because, well, he slid into it rather easily during the season.

The problem comes on the other end of the floor, where the Warriors would obviously be comfortable just ignoring him on the perimeter. Mbah a Moute has always been a great cutter, but if he can’t finish, that doesn’t really matter. If he’s progressed to the point where shooting layups is physically possible, though, he is pretty clearly the best available option.

Option 2: Ryan Anderson

Remember him? The guy who the Rockets gave $80 million two summers ago?

He was a huge part of the Rockets supercharging their offense last season, playing 30 minutes a night and knocking down 40 percent of the seven 3s per game he launched. Of course, the Spurs rendered him completely unplayable in the second round because he just could not defend in open space. Anderson lost a bunch of weight over the summer and came out hot to start the season. He was knocking down his shots like usual and he looked far more capable defensively. But he got hurt in the middle of the year and when he returned, the Rockets began inoculating themselves from needing him on the floor during the playoffs.

"Once the Rockets proved through the first 50 or so games of the year that they were a legit contender as close to being on par with the Warriors as a team could get, D’Antoni made the move to Warrior-proof his squad. The Rockets will pretty much always have the best possible spacing, whether Anderson is on the floor or not. Their shooters stand a few feet outside the line above the break and as deep in the corners as possible, stretching the defense to its horizontal limits while Clint Capela provides a vertical element. Those forces together give James Harden and Chris Paul enough room to work their individual magic.So D’Antoni made the prudent move: he made sure to figure out how to run rotations that don’t depend on Anderson’s skill set, while still being sure to utilize him in situations where he won’t become a liability. The Rockets can play Anderson whenever he won’t be victimized, but they can also just use Tucker or Mbah a Moute alongside Harden, Paul, and Trevor Ariza, which, by extension, allows them to be as flexible defensively as possible."

This series is the exact situation where he would become a liability. It’s why the Rockets signed Tucker and Mbah a Moute and it’s why D’Antoni began moving away from Anderson. He can’t switch with the rest of these guys, and the Warriors would just run him through the ringer every time down the floor. But if Mbah a Moute can’t play, the Rockets could do worse than just dusting off Anderson as another shooter to create space around Harden, Gordon, and Capela. The Warriors aren’t just going to let him fire away from deep, at least. If D’Antoni decides that jacking up as many 3s as possible is the way to give without Paul, Anderson would be the guy he turns to.

Option 3: Joe Johnson

This has been a popular suggestion basically since the moment Paul crumpled to the floor while trying to drive past Quinn Cook. The idea, I guess, is that the Rockets are running a bunch of isolation stuff and so turning to the guy whose nickname is Iso Joe is a wise move.

I’m not so sure I see it that way. He’s another like-size defender on the perimeter but Johnson doesn’t quite have the foot speed to hang in the switch-happy system Houston’s employing. (Note that he’s played in only six playoff games and even then, just 6.8 minutes per game.) He seems ripe for targeting isolation by Stephen Curry and/or Kevin Durant. He also shot horribly during his regular-season stint with the team, and his somewhat slow release is not the best fit in this series that has necessitated doing everything as quickly as possible if and when the ball swings to the shooters on the perimeter.

Next: The Warriors are searching for a fifth man

Option 4: Nene

If Steve Kerr is going to continue finding minutes for David West and/or Jordan Bell, D’Antoni could just match Nene’s minutes to theirs. Not much to say here other than that he is an ambulatory Rocket who at least has some of D’Antoni’s trust and would keep the ball moving offensively while hopefully not being killed on the other end.

Option 5: Play six guys

This would be the D’Antoni-est move possible, right? He’s already been rolling with a seven-man rotation. The seven guys he’s been playing are pretty clearly the only ones he’s comfortable using in this series, given the state of Mbah a Moute’s shoulder injury. So why even use anyone else, if you don’t think they belong on the floor against the Warriors? Just play Harden, Gordon, Ariza, and Tucker for 40-plus minutes apiece, get Capela into the high-30s, and ramp up Green’s minutes to make up for the absence of Paul. It’s a risky move given that Game 7 comes after just a one-day break, but if the Conference Finals against one of the best teams of all time isn’t the place to put all your chips on the table by sticking firmly to that in which you believe; when is?

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