Warriors’ sloppiness catching up to them against physical Rockets

The Golden State Warriors find themselves on the brink of elimination thanks to turnovers and an offense that has lost the plot.

Since the Steve Kerr era began, the Golden State Warriors have played with an arrogant panache that often toes the line between brilliance and sloppiness. More often than not the brilliant side wins out thanks to the immense talent on the floor, but this season saw the Warriors lose their most regular-season games under Kerr thanks in part to a season-long battle against holding their focus.

Kerr lamented time and time again throughout the season about creating bad habits, though the consensus was that Golden State would lock in during the postseason and tighten things up. As long as the Warriors didn’t beat themselves, they would again cruise to the championship.

While the defending champions coasted through the first two rounds against inferior teams, the top-seeded Houston Rockets have made them pay for some of those bad habits and an overall lack of consistent offensive execution. The result has Golden State on the brink of elimination with the series heading back to Oracle Arena for Game 6.

The Warriors finished 26th in the NBA in turnovers this season with 15.4 per game, and it’s turnovers that have plagued them in all three losses against Houston. Golden State committed a whopping 18 miscues in Thursday’s 98-94 Game 5 loss, with Draymond Green fittingly putting the final nail in the coffin by fumbling away a pass from Stephen Curry in the waning moments:

This was Green’s sixth turnover of the night and second of the fourth quarter, with the other a dreadful inbounds pass that gave James Harden two easy points:

The Warriors’ 18 giveaways led to 18 Rockets points and also helped result in the Dubs attempting only 72 field goal attempts:

Golden State coughed the ball up 15 times in its Game 2 loss and 16 times in its Game 4 loss at home that featured an epic offensive meltdown in the fourth quarter. It has been jarring to see arguably the greatest offensive team of all time fritter away games with horrible offense, but their sloppiness combined with a physical, switching Rockets defense that has made it a point to extend well out on the perimeter has thrown the Warriors out of sorts.

Not only have turnovers plagued Golden State, but the entire offense has shifted away from what makes it so dynamic. Ball movement and assists are way down, while isolations are way up. Prior to this series, the Warriors only had four sub-20 assist games all year. They only had 18 dimes in Game 5 and 14 in Game 4, and their 49.5 assist percentage for the series is well below their 68.5 percent mark in the regular season and 69.6 percent in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Furthermore, Golden State completed a series-low 257 passes in Game 5 to give them an average of 269.8 for the series, per NBA.com’s Second Spectrum tracking data. They recorded 322.7 passes per game in the regular season and 323.2 per game in the first two postseason rounds.

Meanwhile, Tom Haberstroh highlighted before Game 5 the huge leap in isolation possessions:

The Warriors “only” had 14 isolations in Game 5, per Haberstroh, but that’s still about double of their usual amount before this series.

Kerr and Kevin Durant have taken the brunt of the blame for this shift in approach. While Durant is scoring 31.2 points per game with a 59.9 true shooting percentage in the series, he has three assists total in the three losses and really struggled down the stretch of Games 4 and 5. He has frequently been isolating in the mid-post area, and while he has had some individual success doing this, the offense as a whole has suffered from a lack of rhythm. Kerr was defensive about this strategy after Game 5:

However, Kerr was also caught on the TNT broadcast imploring Durant to trust his teammates more:

It’s no coincidence that the Warriors were at their most dominant in this series when Durant had six assists, Curry went off (35 points) and turnovers were limited (eight) in Game 3. Letting Steph cook and having everything else flow from that is typically the best version of the Dubs, with Durant isolations a terrific safety valve when needed.

That’s still easier said than done, though, against a confident Rockets team that is making life difficult on the Warriors with their physicality. Houston’s effort and toughness can’t be overstated, with Curry and Klay Thompson both clearly being bothered by it on the perimeter.

Next: The Warriors are missing Andre Iguodala

The Andre Iguodala injury has also loomed large. Iguodala’s basketball IQ and ability to stabilize the offense when it starts to get sloppy is important, and he’s also good at speeding things up and getting the Warriors out in transition. His crumbling jumper sometimes poses problems, but Golden State doesn’t have a reliable fifth player to turn to without him. Quinn Cook even got crunch-time minutes in Game 5 and missed a crucial wide-open 3-pointer in the final minute.

Despite their predicament, the Warriors are still confident about winning the series. They’re hoping Iguodala will return for Game 6, and Chris Paul’s hamstring injury could change the series’ entire complexion.

Still, Golden State needs to find that focus and get back to the offense that got them here, with or without Iguodala. There are still four All-Stars in place who need to execute better. The margin for error is gone, and one more slip-up will cost them a championship.