What role can Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have in the NBA?

Heading into the college basketball season, Kevin Knox seemed like he was going to be Kentucky’s best player. The forward was a potential top-10 pick, and seemed clearly ahead of his other freshman teammates. However, thanks to some flaws exposed in Knox’s game and an injury to Jarred Vanderbilt, the Wildcats struggled early on. They still made the Sweet 16, though, thanks to a late charge led by a different prospect, one that carried the team throughout their late surge, and has appeared to overtake Knox on NBA Draft rankings: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s draft stock has been one of the highest-rising of the class through the year, as he’s seemed to pass every test thrown at him. He started the year as a role player, with Kentucky giving creation duties to Knox and Quade Green, and SGA supported by playing sound defense and picking his spots as a secondary creator. As Green fizzled, John Calipari gave SGA more ball-handling duties, and he excelled at that, too, getting to the rim consistently and heating up from 3. By the end of the year he had averaged 14.4 points, 4.1 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 1.6 steals per game, shot 40.4 percent from 3, and won the SEC Championship game with a 29-point performance. To further strengthen his case, he impressed with his NBA Combine measurements, measuring 6-foot-6 with a 6-foot-11 wingspan, and an incredible 3.0 percent body fat.

Gilgeous-Alexander clearly has the tools to be an NBA player. He’s strong, lean, and long, and couples that physical frame with an innate understanding of the game on both ends. That has some very excited about him, to the point where he might break into the top-10 of the NBA Draft. However, it’s difficult to figure out exactly what SGA’s role in the NBA should be because he has real weaknesses that might limit his upside. He has the profile of an effective player, but how is that going to look? And is that type of player worth a potential top-10 pick?

It’s pretty clear that SGA will have some sort of role in the NBA, because he’s too good of a team defender to not find a way onto the floor. With his length, he should be able to defend both backcourt spots, and he makes excellent reads when defending on and off-ball, which helped him routinely disrupt offenses with steals.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s shooting is also a draw. His late-season surge was very promising, and it’s reasonable to expect that he will be at least passable as a catch-and-shoot option. His form isn’t ideal, but it’s consistent, and he is confident in his abilities.

At the very least, Gilgeous-Alexander fits the mold of a 3-and-D wing that can take some on-ball responsibilities. He is a sound pick-and-roll decision-maker, and while he’s not a very crafty passer, his vision is an NBA-ready skill that will allow him to be a nice ancillary passer, at worst.

However, to be worth the draft rating that many have of him, SGA needs to be capable of more. Coming from the pedigree of being a Kentucky point guard, the expectation is that he will be able to handle at least some on-ball creation duty. To be rated ahead of Collin Sexton of Alabama at point guard, it would be nice to see some sort of hint at primary creation. This is where his skill set offers the least clear answers.

The biggest red flag for Gilgeous-Alexander’s on-ball abilities is his shooting, which is significantly lacking. While he hit over 40 percent from 3 this season, it came on just 57 attempts which was less than many of the draft’s top centers. Over 70 percent of those attempts were assisted. And while he showed some ability to pull-up from mid-range, his gather to shoot off the dribble is slow and awkward, making it easy to contest.

Without that shooting threat, it’s going to be very difficult for Gilgeous-Alexander to be an NBA initiator, especially with his athleticism issues. SGA didn’t do any of the strength or agility tests at the Combine, which is problematic, because we don’t get a good gauge of what looks like questionable athleticism. He doesn’t get much explosiveness off the bounce going towards the rim, and while he averaged 5.6 free throw attempts per 40 minutes, he struggled to get separation off the dribble, and doesn’t get all the way to the rim.

Of course, this isn’t hopeless, because SGA is perhaps the most crafty finisher in the class. He shot 58.3 percent at the rim despite his athletic concerns, because he has an impressive combination of change of direction moves and floaters against rim protection.

The path to SGA becoming a primary initiator does exist. With that craft and his diagnostics out of the pick-and-roll, he can become a starting point guard in the NBA thanks to his defense and decision-making, which is advanced compared to many of the other guards in this class. All he really needs is to become a more confident shooter, and get a little stronger so that he can power to the rim more. Both of those are things that can, in theory, be worked on.

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Gilgeous-Alexander’s NBA role isn’t very well defined, which is both enticing and nerve-wracking for NBA front offices to sift through. His ultimate role will likely fall between that baseline of talent and ultimate ceiling, especially if he lands in a situation where he can play to his strengths and hide his weaknesses. With his size, playmaking ability and team defense, he could excel as a secondary initiator behind a more ball-dominant lead guard, like next to Ben Simmons on the Philadelphia 76ers. On a team with even more weapons, he could fill the role as a Shaun Livingston type, creating mismatches with his size and becoming more of an off-ball slasher, which would allow him to hide his 3-point shooting. Should he fall to Denver at No. 14, this could be the ultimate outcome.

If you’re expecting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to become a better player than Collin Sexton or Trae Young, it’s unlikely to be the case because of how far behind he is as an initiator. But thanks to his feel, intelligence, and craft, he should be able to easily find a role in the league.