MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday May 30
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Tuesday’s MLB DFS slate was a bit of a mixed bag for Picks and Pivots as our Danny Duffy punt play returned value which made it easy to fit in some of the big bats of my favorite stacks – the Red Sox and Rockies – as Xander Bogaerts and Nolan Arenado were my top hitting performers but really the night was driven by one-off under the radar hitters as the top fantasy outputs were from Brett Gardner, Luis Valbuena, Ian Kinsler and Sandy Leon just as we all expected!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Starting Pitching:
We get a nice little four game MLB DFS slate to kick off this Wednesday with a handful of elite arms to build around and three teams with 5+ run totals so there is no shortage of roster build paths on this slate.
Let’s start here – lock in Alex Reyes ($13K) as one of the top prospects in baseball makes his 2018 debut after working his way back from in injury that cost him 2017. Reyes is the kind of elite strikeout prospect that MLB DFS players cannot wait to play as this is an arm with a 30% K rate throughout his minor league career with electric stuff that he has used to dominate batters in his 2018 rehab starts.
Alex Reyes in four rehab starts:
— Sammy Stava (@StavaonSTL) May 25, 2018
Peoria: 5.0 scoreless IP, 1 H, 12 Ks.
Palm Beach: 3.2 scoreless IP, 4 H, 6 Ks.
Springfield: 7.2 scoreless IP, 1 H, 13 Ks.
Memphis: 7.0 scoreless IP, 1 H, 13 Ks.
0.00 ERA, 7 H, 44 Ks. #STLCards
No seriously – look at those numbers – 44 K’s in 23 innings so far in 2018 through four minor league stops. This is a simple decision for me as Reyes is priced entirely too low for the kind of K upside he possesses and on a short slate where we want to pay up for our SP1 and a high dollar stack, this is the obvious SP2 to lock in on two pitcher sites and on FanDuel where he is only $6.2K, I would argue he could be used as your SP1.
After Reyes, the decision than likely comes down to whether you pay up for Corey Kluber ($24.2K) or Patrick Corbin ($21.4K) as both are massive favorites pitching at home today with Kluber at -300 and Corbin at -200. Both arms are obviously elite plays but there are some interesting red flags here that are worth pointing out before you simply lock them in,
After a dominant 2017 where Kluber sported a 34.1% K rate, he is down to only a 26.1% K rate this season which is actually right where he was in both 2015 and 2016, so is it possible we are paying the 2017 premium for Kluber when the larger sample size has him a lesser K arm than we normally treat him as? His swinging strike rate is only at 11%, which is way down from his 15.6% rate last season but more in line with his 12% rate from 2015-2016 so again, we could be paying for the 2017 outlier year with Kluber here.
Corbin actually has the highest K rate on the slate at 33% this season but his velocity in recent starts is way down and that is alway a big red flag for any strikeout arm. Corbin’s fastball has only sat at 88-89 MPH in his last two starts which is 3-4 MPH down from his early season starts and it is worth noting that his K rate has been at 25%-26% in four of his last six starts so are we paying the full season price on a pitcher who has shown decreased velocity and strikeout ability in recent outings.
Now I am not going to talk you off of either arm but I do think there should be SOME hesitation about simply locking in the chalk Reyes-Kluber or Reyes-Corbin builds as they may not be as safe as it seems at first glance.
Eduardo Rodriguez ($15.1K) is priced at a massive discount off the Kluber/Corbin duo and as a huge -185 home favorite with a 28% K rate, I think he deserves more consideration as a play today than he will likely get. Rodriguez has actually struck out 7 or more batters in four of his last five starts and pitched earlier this season against Toronto where he went 6+ innings, striking out 3 and giving up 3 ER in Toronto. E-Rod has actually had big time success against this Blue Jays team when facing them in Boston as he had two match-ups in Fenway last year, striking out 8 batters both teams and giving up 2-3 ER in each start so there is some sneaky upside for E-Rod here that will likely be completely ignored and his pairing with Reyes allows you a completely different hitter build than those who go with Kluber or Corbin.
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots – Early Slate:
There are two high-priced offenses on this slate in the Indians and Red Sox that both have big time run totals and will likely be the popular stacking decision people make when pairing them with Kluber or Corbin. The key word there is CHOICE – you will need to pick EITHER the Indians or the Red Sox if you go up to Kluber or Corbin, which is another reason why I like going with E-Rod/Reyes as my pitchers because I can stack the best bats from both which is something the Kluber/Corbin owners will not have the ability to do.
The Indians get a great match-up with Reynaldo Lopez, a pitcher who has surrendered a .214 ISO to left-handed batters the last two seasons with a 11.8% K rate versus a 9.5% walk rate and a near 50% fly ball rate. So we get a loaded left-handed Indians line-up against a pitcher who gives up power, can’t miss bats and walks guys – seems like a good stack recipe to me. Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez and Yonder Alonso are my favorite plays here as each of these bats has a .230 plus ISO against RHP this season with Brantley, Lindor and Alonso all sporting 36% plus hard contact rates so there is massive potential with a lefty heavy line-up to support their slate high 6.1 run projection.
The Red Sox will likely be without Mookie Betts again today which should push more focus on the Indians stack in my opinion but over-looking the Red Sox against Sam Gaviglio could be a big mistake. The Jays RHP has given up over a .200 ISO to hitters from both sides of the plate over the lats two seasons, with well over a 30% hard contact rate and will have to navigate through a Boston order that remains loaded with power. J.D. Martinez, Mitch Moreland and Xander Bogaerts should make up the 2-3-4 spots again today and each of them has .250+ ISO against RHP this season with JD and Moreland sporting massive .350 marks.
The one cheaper stack I would use as a pivot is the Cardinals as even though Junior Guerra has been able to limit the damage this year, he is giving up tons of hard contact with a 45% rate to right-handed batters and a 35% rate to left-handed hitters and considering he has a .220+ ISO to hitters from both sides of the plate last season, I expect regression to hit hard and it could start today with the best play being the red-hot Matt Carpenter who remains simply too cheap at $7.6K on FantasyDraft.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
SP: Eduardo Rodriguez ($15.1K)
SP: Alex Reyes ($13.5K)
IF: Matt Carpenter ($7.6K)
IF: Mitch Moreland ($8K)
IF: Xander Bogaerts ($8.3K)
OF: J.D. Martinez ($11K)
OF: Jose Ramirez ($10.2K)
OF: Michael Brantley ($9.2K)
UTIL: Francsico Lindor ($9.2K)
UTIL: Yonder Alonso ($7.6K)
Slate Overview: Alex Reyes is the lock chalk play of the slate and my guess is the pairing with Kluber or Corbin is where the majority of people go but why are we so quick to dismiss a cheaper arm in E-Rod who is a massive home favorite with a K rate of 28% that rivals the more expensive players mentioned? Not only can we chase the same K upside but his price savings allow me to stack the two best offenses on the slate which is something Kluber and Corbin owners simply cannot afford to do. Food for thought on this early slate for sure.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Pitching:
We have no shortage of elite pitching on this Main Slate with Max Scherzer ($26.9K) at the top but I am more inclined to take the $4k savings and pay down to James Paxton ($22.9K) as the biggest favorite (-250) on the Main Slate. Paxton has been incredible this year with a 33% K rate and double-digit strikeouts in three of his last five outings and will take on a Rangers that strikes out at a 26% clip against LHP with is the third highest mark in baseball. Yes, I know Paxton’s last rough start came against this same Rangers team when he gave up 5 ER and only struck out 6 batters but that start was in Texas and this game is in Seattle, in a great pitching environment where Paxton has thrived this year to the tune of a 2.67 ERA and a 35% K rate. For the salary savings, I am happy to plug-in Paxton tonight who has every bit the upside of Mad Max as my SP1.
What in the world does Ross Stripling ($14.7K) need to do to get a price boost? The Dodgers RHP has now struck out 7, 9 and 10 batters in his last three outings and has only surrendered 3 ER in those starts combined and will now take on a Phillies team that leads the league in K rate versus RHP at 26.4%. Stripling is a solid -170 home favorite and with this game being in LA it only adds to his appeal being in a great pitching environment and frankly I am having a hard time finding a reason to fade him as my SP2 when you consider his K upside.
For me this slate really is just this simple – If you want to make the case for Scherzer against Baltimore I certainly understand but the Paxton/Stripling combination gives me every bit the K upside as a pairing and I still have $7.8K per batter when filling out the rest of my roster.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Hitting:
What am I missing? Seriously, someone help me out here. Jason Vargas versus Julio Teheran in Atlanta’s hitting environment that has produced back to back games with 13 runs and this total is only at 8 runs? Could this be a result of Noah Syndergaard having originally been scheduled here? I cannot believe that is the case as we got the news Thor was going to the DL early yesterday so why are there Vegas totals showing only 8 runs – honestly I am flabbergasted. FLABBERGASTED I SAY!
This is my favorite game to stack on the Main Slate and that is mostly because Jason Vargas is the worst pitcher to ever don a Mets uniform and as a Mets fan I have lived through some truly terrible arms. The last time Vargas faced this team he gave up 11 hits and 6 ER in only 4.2 IP and even without Ronald Acuna Jr., this Braves stack is primed to go off again with Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies being the big dollar items. What is nice about the Braves stack is they have cheaper fill-in pieces to make this work while still paying up for pitching as we can lock in Kurt Suzuki and Dustin Peterson who was called up to take Acuna’s spot and allows us to attack a pitcher in Vargas who is giving up a .260+ ISO and 38% hard contact rate to right-handed batters this season. If you are stacking up the Braves, do NOT leave off Nick Markakis who went 3 for 3 with a home run off Vargas earlier this season and it is worth noting that Vargas has a .348 ISO to LHB this season.
The last time Teheran faced the Mets he almost pitched a no-hitter but that was in Citi Field and this game is in Atlanta where his ERA is nearly 2 runs higher this season and he is surrendering 2 HR/9 with lefties having a 2.25 HR/9 mark against him in 2018. This Mets team has quietly been on fire, scoring the third most runs in baseball over the last seven days and with Teheran’s home run issues versus lefties in this ballpark – I am locking in Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo and Asdrubal Cabrera who are all priced at $7.6K-$7.7K and allow you a cost-effective high upside stack in this spot to run back with the Braves power.
Now listen, we also have Coors Field on this slate and most notably Derek Holland pitching so if there was ever a spot to one-off Nolan Arenado, then this would be it. Holland is giving up a .250 ISO and 43% HC rate to right-handed hitters so paying the freight for Arenado here at $10.8K.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
More from FanSided
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
SP: James Paxton ($22.9K)
SP: Ross Stripling ($14.7K)
IF: Nolan Arenado ($10.8K)
IF: Ozzie Albies ($10.2K)
IF: Kurt Suzuki ($6.7K)
OF: Nick Markakis ($8K)
OF: Dustin Peterson ($4.9K)
OF: Brandon Nimmo ($7.7K)
UTIL: Asdrubal Cabrera ($7.6K)
UTIL: Adrian Gonzalez ($6.5K)
Slate Overview: This slate really was simple for me to isolate where I wanted my focus with Paxton/Stripling as my high upside K arms which give me a huge ceiling and the salary flexibility to still pay up for bats. With an awful lefty in Coors I am not sure how you avoid Arenado here as the first bat in and then you can easily game stack a Braves/Mets game that I expect will be another 10+ run outing as the last two games have been. Enjoy the slates today and we will see you back here tomorrow.
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!