NBA Draft 2018: 5 most overrated prospects

3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

There’s a lot to like about the Kentucky point guard. He’s got tremendous size for the position and showed a real willingness to play defense for John Calipari. Unfortunately, his lack of explosive athleticism is going to limit his ceiling at the NBA level.

The comparisons to Shaun Livingston are legitimate. Both players have amazing wing spans and can handle the ball. Each player can use his length to get off shots in the lane over opponents. Livingston is also a backup on the most talented team in the league. Gilgeous-Alexander likely isn’t going to be surrounded by that type of talent.

In other words, he’s going to need to shoulder more of a scoring load. That’s why he’s being moderately overvalued at the moment. He doesn’t have the quick first step or amazing shooting stroke to really be a team’s first or second option. That’s what teams are looking for when they’re drafting in the top 12.

Gilgeous-Alexander is a classic high floor, medium ceiling selection. He’s almost certainly going to carve out a niche on a team at the next level. He may even have a long career like Livingston. It’s hard to imagine him ever making an All-Star team though.

As a result, his draft range should be more like 15-20 instead of 10-15. Picking him won’t get a GM fired, but it’s not going to revolutionize a franchise either. Teams looking for stars should shy away from the Kentucky guard.