NBA Draft 2018: 5 most overrated prospects

OMAHA, NE - MARCH 25: Marvin Bagley III #35 of the Duke Blue Devils looks on during their game against the Kansas Jayhawks during the 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Midwest Regional Final at CenturyLink Center on March 25, 2018 in Omaha, Nebraska. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images) /

6 of 6

OMAHA, NE – MARCH 25: Marvin Bagley III #35 and Gary Trent, Jr. #2 of the Duke Blue Devils walk off the court following their 85-81 OT loss to the Kansas Jayhawks during the 2018 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Midwest Regional Final at CenturyLink Center on March 25, 2018 in Omaha, Nebraska. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images) /

1. Marvin Bagley

Twenty years ago, Bagley would have battled DeAndre Ayton to be the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft. Unfortunately for the former Duke star, the game is changed. His lack of perimeter skills and his questionable defensive credentials should push him comfortably out of the top five this year.

Offensively, Bagley has a chance to be an above average NBA player. He’s got terrific post moves and his ability to rebound should give him extra chances to score at the rim. He may struggle to score over above average rim protectors at the next level.

It’s also debatable as to whether or not Bagley can add a 3-point stroke to his offensive game. If you believe he can, it’s easy to project him as a quality second or third scorer for a team. If he can’t stretch his jumper out, he’s going to be much more of a garbage scorer. That isn’t a bad thing, but it’s not what you want out of a top-five selection.

Defensively the prognosis for Bagley is much more severe. Duke switched to a zone defense for the first time in Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s career. That was largely as a result of Bagley’s inability to stay in front of anyone. Things aren’t going to get easier for him at the next level. In fact, they will be much more difficult. If he plays the four he’s going to need to guard opposing bigs all the way out to the 3-point line. He simply doesn’t have the lateral quickness to do that effectively.

His lack of ability to protect the rim will show up wherever he plays. There’s a reason he didn’t go to the Draft Combine to get tested. His height and wingspan aren’t going to profile well against other big men in this draft. He cannot protect the rim against bigs in the NBA.

Next: 5 best fits for Jaren Jackson, Jr.

Bagley is a pretty safe bet to have a long, pretty good career at the next level. That doesn’t mean he’ll ever deserve to make an All-Star game. Teams picking in the top five should be looking for game-changing talents. Bagley is too limited defensively to ascend to that level.

Home/NBA Draft