DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Friday June 1

Welcome into the Friday edition of the DFS MLB daily fantasy baseball column! We have our normal gigantic slate tonight so let’s get to work.

Last night was a very high scoring night with most 50/50’s hovering around 160 points to make any money. Fortunately for us, we were on the right side of that line thanks to a nicely balanced lineup. Jose Quintana was far chalkier than I expected and I had some Yankee hitters cooking until the weather turned for the worse. Fortunately most of the players we identified yesterday as great plays held up their end of the bargain and we came through with a 189.8 score on FanDuel! We’ve been very lucky lately but the research creates our luck. Let’s keep at it tonight!

Yankees at Orioles

*Note* This analysis is a repeat from yesterday’s column as the Thursday game was postponed. Both teams bumped Thursday’s starting pitcher into tonight.

Yankees Probable Starter – Sonny Gray, RHP

5.98 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and 18.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .240 average, .306 wOBA, 28.2 fly ball rate and 35.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .312 average, .397 wOBA, 34.5 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard contact rate

If the splits hold up in this matchup, it could be a long day for Gray and the Yanks. They have righties for days and that’s where Gray has struggled most so far. He’s given up three or more runs in six out of 10 starts this year and it’s hard to believe he’ll shut down the Orioles tonight. There’s always a concern that Gray could just ground ball this lineup to death but I certainly have some interest in the Baltimore bats tonight. Other than Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo and Danny Valencia really catch my eye at $2,700 and $2,500 respectively. Gray is nothing more than a GPP dart throw until he shows some type of consistency.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Options -Danny Valencia, Adam Jones

Orioles Probable Starter – Andrew Cashner, RHP

5.07 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and 19.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .267 average, .378 wOBA, 48.8 fly ball rate and 32.9 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .311 average, .387 wOBA, 29.7 fly ball rate and 35.9 hard contact rate

If the Orioles are in a decent spot, the Yankees are in a better one on paper, especially the lefties if you look at the fly ball rate. I don’t make a habit of playing any pitcher against New York and tonight won’t be an exception. Cashner does have a 40 point effort this season that came in New York but I would expect that to be a fluke, not the normal. I wouldn’t talk you out of too many options here but perhaps my favorite is Greg Bird. He’s still finding his groove after returning from another injury but he’s hitting between Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. He’s also a lefty who has plenty of power. Just about anyone from the Yankee lineup is viable tonight, especially towards the top of the order. Bird was about 15 percent owned yesterday and that was with the forecast of rain. He’ll be the chalk tonight for sure.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Brett Gardner, Gleyber Torres

Secondary Options – Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez

Home Run Pick – The balls could really fly in this game so I’ll go with Bird and Trumbo

DFS MLB – Cubs at Mets

Cubs Probable Starter – Tyler Chatwood, RHP

4.10 ERA, 1.76 WHIP and 19.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .264 average, .364 wOBA, 30.0 fly ball rate and 35.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .191 average, .304 wOBA, 28.6 fly ball rate and 29.8 hard contact rate

For someone who can’t keep runners off the base paths, Chatwood actually has a half decent ERA. He really limits the fly balls and hard contact, especially to righties. I basically refuse to play Chatwood with his walk rate of 20.3 even though he’s near minimum price. Yes, his walk rate is legitimately higher than his strikeout rate . He’s made 10 starts this season and has walked five or more seven times. His strikeout rate to lefties is even worse than his total and Brandon Nimmo stands out like a sore thumb. He’s got an excellent chance to get on base and if he does, he could steal second and third in a heartbeat. He might be my favorite player in the early stages of building a lineup. Michael Conforto and Asdrubal Cabrera are also fine options, though the ceiling might not be high with Chatwood’s fly ball rate.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brandon Nimmo

Secondary Options – Asdrubal Cabrera. Michael Conforto

Mets Probable Starter – Zack Wheeler, RHP

5.40 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 23.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .263 average, .337 wOBA, 40.0 fly ball rate and 45.6 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .272 average, .324 wOBA, 31.5 fly ball rate and 24.2 hard contact rate

Wheeler has shown flashes of being very good at different points throughout the season and is a name to file away in the right matchup. The Cubbies are top 10 across the board in major offensive categories, meaning this isn’t the time we want to use Wheeler. He’s giving up too any fly balls and to much hard contact to lefty hitters to totally ignore in this spot. Ben Zobrist has been swinging a hot bat lately and is easily in play at $2,900. Anthony Rizzo is only $4,000 still as well and has been hitting a lot better. Just ask the Pirates. Kyle Schwarber has been really quiet lately and that means he’s due.

Cubs Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Options – Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez

Home Run Pick – Anthony Rizzo

DFS MLB – Blue Jays at Tigers

Bleu Jays Probable Starter – Jaime Garcia, LHP

5.52 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 21.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .245 average, .368 wOBA, 51.4 fly ball rate and 35.9 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .275 average, .370 wOBA, 42.3 fly ball rate and 38.8 hard contact rate

Garcia has struggled through the 2018 campaign and he’s walking into what is quietly a pretty bad matchup. The Tigers lineup certainly isn’t what it used to be and they could be without Jeimer Candelario since he was hit by a pitch yesterday. I would be surprised if he played so we’re left with options such as Nicholas Castellanos, James McCann, John Hicks and Niko Goodrum. McCann and Hicks are the cheapest options with Hicks holding the edge in wOBA at .422. At just $2,400, he appears to be a great value option. Castellanos is having a great season so far but is priced up at $3,800. That gives me a little pause and I’m not sure I’d force him in despite being in a fantastic matchup.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nicholas Castellanos, John Hicks, James McCann

Secondary Options – Niko Goodrum

Tigers Probable Starter – Blaine Hardy, LHP

2.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 20.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .208 average, .283 wOBA, 57.9 fly ball rate and 42.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .264 average, .297 wOBA, 46.2 fly ball rate and 29.3 hard contact rate

I want to love the Blue Jays tonight and maybe they come through. There’s a no name lefty on the mound and he’s giving up an absurd amount of hard contact and fly balls to lefties. What’s weird is the Blue Jays don’t have a lot of lefty hitters to really love. Justin Smoak and Yangervis Solarte both hit switch so they’ll bat righty. Josh Donaldson will hopefully be back in the lineup and maybe that’s the way to head. It is worth noting that he has not hit well so far this season. Yes, this is a daily column but we can’t ignore what a player has been doing all season long. I won’t be playing Hardy in any format.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Justin Smoak, Yangervis Solarte

Secondary Options – Josh Donaldson, Teoscar Hernandez, Kevin Pillar

Home Run Pick – John Hicks

DFS MLB – Nationals at Braves

Nationals Probable Starter – Stephen Strasburg, RHP

3.13 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 28.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .213 average, .282 wOBA, 29.8 fly ball rate and 26.9 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .214 average, .284 wOBA, 36.7 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard contact rate

My goodness, the splits don’t get much more even from an average and wOBA standpoint. The fly balls and hard contact are higher than I would have thought given all of the other metrics. I don’t think I’d use Strasburg in cash games because the Atlanta offense is dangerous. Strasburg could be a great GPP options because the normal top four hitters for the Braves right now are all left handed hitters. That’s the better side of the split for Strasburg. This really isn’t a spot I’m cray about for Atlanta. I would either stack three or four hitters or none at all. Finding the one-off would be like finding a needle in a haystack. The lone exception would be Freddie Freeman, who owns a .357 average and four home runs in 42 at-bats.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Options – None

Braves Probable Starter – Mike Foltynewicz, RHP

2.55 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 27.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .216 average, .324 wOBA, 40.0 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .211 average, .267 wOBA, 31.6 fly ball rate and 33.8 hard contact rate

If we combine pitch type data with the fly ball rate and hard contact rate to lefties, Bryce Harper is in an incredible spot tonight. Foltynewicz is having a great season to this point but he throws a fastball over 60 percent of the time. Harper is a lefty hitter who is the 12th best hitter against fastballs in the majors. He is very expensive as always but is certainly a fine play. Juan Soto is back down to a decent price as well and in a short sample size he’s hitting the fastball well. I wouldn’t pay for Matt Adams tonight although he crushes fastballs as well. I have enough respect for Foltynewicz that I won’t stack too many Nats tonight.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Bryce Harper, Juan Soto

Secondary Options – Matt Adams

Home Run Pick – Bryce Harper

Red Sox at Astros

Red Sox Probable Starter – Chris Sale, LHP

2.76 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 34.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .233 average, .271 wOBA, 24.0 fly ball rate and 25.9 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .183 average, .267 wOBA, 43.3 fly ball rate and 28.2 hard contact rate

This is the heavyweight game of the day and might be one of the premier matchups of the season so far. It’s a real shame it’s not that great for fantasy because the range of outcomes is so great on both sides, any single player is just a GPP player. Nobody is priced down due to matchups and that’s where the rub is. Chris Sale is awesome but he’s coming off a poor start and is still full price. The Astros are top five in most offensive categories against lefties so it could be another rough go for Sale. The flip side is it’s still Chris Sale and all of the Astros are still near or over the $4,000 mark. It’s another spot where you stack the offense or don’t play anyone. If you stack, fully expect it to not work.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, George Springer, Max Stassi

Astros Probable Starter – Gerrit Cole, RHP

2.05 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 39.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .180 average, .246 wOBA, 47.5 fly ball rate and 29.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .158 average, 2.229 wOBA, 45.1 fly ball rate and 36.9 hard contact rate

We can copy and paste what we said about Sale for Cole against the Red Sox offense today. Cole has come back down to Earth just a little bit in his past couple starts but is still excellent. Lance McCullers showed last night that it is possible to contain the Red Sox offense. Cole is having a far better season and maybe he gets up for this matchup. Boston offensive pieces are all costly. I can’t justify paying $4,900 for J.D. Martinez tonight, for instance. Mookie Betts hasn’t played in almost a week and it would be pretty difficult to walk into a face off against Cole. Stack them up or let them be. I’m looking forward to this game for in real life than daily fantasy and expect the players involved to have a little extra juice. If you forced me to play one high end pitcher, I’d lean towards Cole.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – J.D. Martinez, Mitch Moreland, Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi

Home Run Pick – I can’t pick anyone with these two pitchers duking it out

DFS MLB – Indians at Twins

Indians Probable Starter – Carlos Carrasco, RHP

3.98 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 24.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .219 average, .269 wOBA, 33.8 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .245 average, .303 wOBA, 35.8 fly ball rate and 37.2 hard contact rate

This is a very interesting spot for Carrasco tonight. He’s usually not my favorite pitcher to show out there but the splits against lefties are eye-opening. Minnesota has quite a few lefties near the top of the lineup and if Carrasco can control Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano, he could be in good shape. $9,400 isn’t exactly cheap but once you get under five digits, any pitcher is not a bad play if you can find the right bats. I wouldn’t play any lefties at all but Dozier and Sano are really solid GPP options. I won’t force Carrasco into a lineup but he’s got every chance to throw a really good game tonight.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier

Twins Probable Starter – Jose Berrios, RHP

3.67 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 24.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .205 average, .268 wOBA, 37.2 fly ball rate and 27.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .204 average, .265 wOBA, 39.8 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard contact rate

When you look at the metrics, it’s a little hard to figure out how the ERA is so high. His curveball is evil when he’s got things working well. This is where it gets tough to figure out which way to go. The Indians are 20th as a team against the curve. Edwin Encarnacion is the highest rated regular player against the pitch and he’s not that far into the positive. At the same time, Cleveland is just white hot on offense right now. As in over 50 runs in the last six games hot. I’m leaning the way of Berrios at least controlling the lineup, though I don’t think he throws a gem. He’s seen this Indians team before and scored 40 points. I’m not rushing to put an Indian hitter in my lineup and Berrios is a great GPP tournament play.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley

Home Run Pick – Edwin Encarnacion

Brewers at White Sox

Brewer Probable Starter – Chase Anderson, RHP

4.42 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 16.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .217 average, .324 wOBA, 48.8 fly ball rate and 33.7 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .240 average, .353 wOBA, 44.9 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard contact rate

Anderson is a pitcher that pitches to contact and doesn’t have the stuff to get away with it. I can’t get behind playing him in any format. He’s displayed some reverse splits this season which means that Jose Abreu could be a really good option. I normally don’t play him unless he draws a lefty but at $3,600, he is awfully tempting. The same can be said for Yoan Moncada. He’s been a little quite since returning off the disabled list and will bat as a lefty but Anderson is giving up so many fly balls it’s hard not to target that. Both players have a wOBA over .365 against righty pitching and are slightly cheaper than normal. Yolmer Sanchez is a fine option as well given his price point.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada

Secondary Options – Yolmer Sanchez

White Sox Probable Starter – Hector Santiago, LHP

4.87 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 20.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .290 average, .397 wOBA, 33.3 fly ball rate and 30.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .256 average, .359 wOBA, 58.4 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard contact rate

I was kind of hoping the pricing algorithm didn’t adjust to Santiago being worse off against lefty hitters but that was not to be. Christian Yelich and Travis Shaw were going to be my two standouts in this matchup but there’s no question they are expensive. Yelich at $4,300 really seems high and Shaw isn’t far behind at an even $4,000. The fly ball rate to righties could really give Santiago fits today as well. You could conceivably go with a full on Milwaukee stack and round it out with Ryan Braun, Jesus Aguilar or Lorenzo Cain. Aguilar is my favorite form a per dollar standpoint but I might try to find the extra couple hundred to play Cain. He owns a .481 wOBA against south paws this season. The Brewers are definitely a premier stacking option this evening.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Travis Shaw, Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar

Secondary Options – Ryan Braun

Home Run Pick – Lorenzo Cain

DFS MLB – A’s at Royals

A’s Probable Starter – Frankie Montas, RHP

*all stats from one start* 1.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 30.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .067 average, .098 wOBA, 55.6 fly ball rate and 20.0 hard contact rate(16 batters)

Vs RHH – .333 average, .353 wOBA, 50. fly ball rate and 25.0 hard contact rate(7 batters)

Obviously when we talk about one start, we can’t lean too far into the splits. What I’ve tried to put a little more weight into is the pitch type data and Montas throws the fastball a ton through his career. It’s closing in at 70 percent so I want to see who hits the pitch well and we land on Jorge Soler. He’s been one of the best hitters against the pitch in baseball and I think he might go very low owned on a slate this large. It doesn’t hurt that he’s a righty hitter on top of that. There’s always the fear of the unknown with a pitcher like Montas so I’m treading lightly with Royals hitters. Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez would be the other hitters I’d consider.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jorge Soler, Mike Moustakas

Secondary Options – Salvador Perez

Royals Probable Starter – Ian Kennedy, RHP

5.15 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 20.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .283 average, .345 wOBA, 42.9 fly ball rate and 40.5 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .291 average, .369 wOBA, 38.2 fly ball rate and 40.2 hard contact rate

Ian Kennedy is not close to consideration for me anymore and the power bats from the A’s might have a field day with him in this game. He gives up gobs of hard contact and fly balls. When I see that, I’ll head right to the hitters that can do the most damage and that’s Khris Davis and Matt Olson. Davis came back off the disabled list yesterday and Olson hit two home runs. I also don’t mind Jed Lowrie but he’s came back to Earth in a pretty major way lately.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options -Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman

Secondary Options -Jed Lowrie

Home Run Pick – Mike Moustakas

DFS MLB – Pirates at Cardinals

Pirates Probable Starter – Jameson Taillon, RHP

4.53 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 22.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .284 average, .363 wOBA, 30.4 fly ball rate and 29.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .213 average, .242 wOBA, 33.0 fly ball rate and 25.0 hard contact rate

I don’t know what happened to Taillon after the hot start to his season, but he’s not playable given his current form. Even if you can get him on a day when he goes deep into the game, the strikeouts haven’t been there to rack up a ton of points. Right off the hop, Matt Carpenter is a target because of how hot he’s been lately and he does have some BvP magic against Taillon. The Pirates took a gut punch last night with a brutal walk off loss and this Pirates squad is in some kind of funk right now. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Cards put up a crooked number. Taillon just pitched against them last week and was just OK. I just can’t target the righty bats due to potential lack of upside with no fly balls and hard contact rate.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Options – Tommy Pham, Jose Martinez, Dexter Fowler

Cardinals Probable Starter – Miles Mikolas, RHP

2.53 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 19.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .273 average, .301 wOBA, 29.8 fly ball rate and 37.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .177 average, .209 wOBA, 21.4 fly ball rate and 28.2 hard contact rate

This game in general is a pretty easy one to mostly ignore, which we need on a 15 game slate. Mikolas is a good pitcher but the strikeout upside just isn’t there. He doesn’t strike out a lot and the Bucs don’t strike out a ton either. That’s not a good mix for Mikolas at his price tag. Having said that, I don’t want to play any Pirates hitters. If you want to chase the chance that Mikolas gets blown up, it would make sense to do it with Bucco lefties. Austin Meadows isn’t cheap but he’s my favorite play from this side. I won’t have a lot of exposure outside of Carpenter.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Austin Meadows, Corey Dickerson, Colin Moran, Francisco Cervelli

Home Run Pick – Matt Carpenter

Dodgers at Rockies

Dodgers Probable Starter – Dennis Santana, RHP

Major League Debut

This side of the game is difficult to breakdown as of this writing. Manager Dave Roberts has deemed it a “bullpen day” and we think it will be Santana who gets the ball. That doesn’t mean they expect him to go for long so we’ll have to monitor it during the day. Regardless of who’s pitching, you can go with the normal suspects for Colorado. Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon in Coors are always playable. I’ll update this on Twitter once we get some more conformation of who’s pitching for the Dodgers and what the plan is.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon

Secondary Options – Trevor Story, TBD

Rockies Probable Starter – Tyler Anderson, LHP

4.72 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 20.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .317 average, .410 wOBA, 31.0 fly ball rate and 30.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .234 average, .320 wOBA, 43.1 fly ball rate and 33.8 hard contact rate

One player who I’d be shocked if he’s not chalk even on this big of a slate is Kike Hernandez. He’s the resident lefty specialist for the Dodgers. In additions, he’s only $3,00 so it’s probably best to lock him in and walk the other way. Maybe I’m wrong about this but I’m not sure this is the best Coors game we’ve ever had. I might not have a ton of exposure to this game in general past Hernandez and possibly some others depending on the pitching situation for Los Angeles.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Kike Hernadez, Chris Taylor, Matt Kemp

Secondary Options –Max Muncy

Home Run Pick – Matt Kemp

DFS MLB – Marlins at Diamondbacks

Marlins Probable Starter – Elieser Hernandez, RHP

2.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 12.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .262 average, .302 wOBA, 41.7 fly ball rate and 44.4 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .333 average, .363 wOBA, 39.1 fly ball rate and 41.7 hard contact rate

To say Hernandez has some regression heading his way based off the metrics would be kind. There’s just no way a pitcher who strikes out so few can give up this amount of fly balls and hard contact and be this good. It’s almost impossible. Paul Goldschmidt is kind of, sort of coming to life and nobody is going to play him against a righty given his current form. He’s an unreal tournament play, though I don’t think I can go there in cash. Jake Lamb is another player who normally smashes righties but hasn’t done that in his action so far. He did miss a large chunk due to injury and maybe this spot will get him going.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Paul Goldschmidt

Secondary Options – Jake Lamb

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Clay Buchholz, RHP

1.64 ERA, 0.45 WHIP and 13.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .044 average, .089 wOBA, 65.0 fly ball rate and 20.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .214 average, 3.49 wOBA, 58.3 fly ball rate and 50.0 hard contact rate

This might be the grossest matchup of the night. I will not belive that Buchholz is a good pitcher, despite the metrics looking ok through some spots. I just wish the Miami offense was one I really wanted to target and I will normally not be on board. Maybe they smack Buchholz around tonight, but I won’t be a huge part of that. I’ll take the power hitters from Miami and that would be about it. The slate is too big to mess around with any other options.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – Paul Goldschmidt

DFS MLB – Rangers at Angels

Rangers Probable Starter – Bartolo Colon, RHP

3.55 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 16.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .200 average, .251 wOBA, 34.5 fly ball rate and 38.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .230 average, .313 wOBA, 29.6 fly ball rate and 41.7 hard contact rate

There might be players who run to target against Colon and that’s understandable. An 88 MPH fastball getting fed to Mike Trout and his teammates sure sounds attractive. AS for Trout, he is one of the best fastball hitters in baseball. Just remember that with a speed so low, it’s not truly a fastball. There are changeups faster than that and Colon makes his living by getting hitters to just make soft contact. So the stack could work, but the big man for the Rangers could troll everyone and pitch very well against the Angels tonight. I lean towards not paying up for Trout in this spot but I haven’t fully ruled him out either. Justin Upton would be the only other Angels hitter I had a lot of interest in.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mike Trout

Secondary Options – Justin Upton, Andrelton Simmons

Angels Probable Starter – Jamie Barria, RHP

2.97 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 19.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .179 average, .217 wOBA, 38.6 fly ball rate and 29.6 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .263 average, .343 wOBA, 40.0 fly ball rate and 36.9 hard contact rate

By the splits, this isn’t the toughest matchup for Barria. The Rangers are very lefty heavy and that’s where a lot of their power comes from. I might like this matchup a little better for him had Adrian Beltre not just got activated of the disabled list but it’s still solid. The Rangers strike out so much against righties that it’s hard not to chase that maybe a little bit. Barria doesn’t have the biggest strikeout rate but Texas isn’t always picky about what they’re swinging at. I’m not going to have a ton from this game on either side. If I had to pick a lane, I’d side with Barria to have decent start, even if it’s nothing special.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Adrian Beltre

Secondary Options – Delino DeShields, Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo

Home Run Pick – Mike Trout

DFS MLB – Reds at Padres

Reds Probable Starter – Tyler Mahle, RHP 

4.76 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 22.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .283 average, .413 wOBA, 43.0 fly ball rate and 44.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .248 average, .292 wOBA, 32.2 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard contact rate

I don’t know if I’ll say this very often this season, but man does Eric Hosmer look too cheap. Mahle hasn’t figured out lefty hitters so far and the Padres could roster three or four lefties this evening. Hosmer is sitting at $3,200 and has to be considered for sure. Another great way to save salary is by playing Travis Jankowski. He and Hosmer are basically neck and neck in wOBA against righty pitching and hit lefty. If you desperately need a punt option, Cory Spangenberg is bare minimum of FanDuel. I don’t know if I’ll really need that type of savings because of the pitcher I might wind up playing. If for some reason the Padres roll out a righty heavy lineup, Mahle could actually be a viable GPP option.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eric Hosmer, Travis Jankowski

Secondary Options  – Cory Spangenberg, Raffy Lopez

Padres Probable Starter – Walker Lockett, RHP

Major League Debut

It’s pretty hard for me to not get excited for Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett tonight. They both have a wOBa of right around .400 against righty pitching so far this season and will face a young righty making his big league debut. Those two have a huge advantage and could go way under the radar. First, they play in the late games. Secondly, it’s in a pitchers ball park. Most will be hesitant to take on those factors and will likely just try to avoid the game altogether. Votto himself hasn’t had a particularly great season so far but anytime he’s under $4,000 is a good time to play him. As with most major league debuts, I’m not going to go all-out with Reds. The only other Reds hitter that I would be interested is is Jesse Winker if he’s near the top of the lineup.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Secondary Options – Jesse Winker

Rays at Mariners

Rays Probable Starter – Sergio Romo, RHP

As is the standard when the Rays have a bullpen day, I’m not rolling out splits because we’re not entirely sure who is pitching after Romo’s on inning or so. The smart money is Austin Pruitt or Anthony Banda. I’m hoping for Banda as he’s a lefty and that would put me right back on my normal hitters from Seattle, Jean Segura and Nelson Cruz. If it turns out to be Banda, I’d probably have a little less interest in this side of the game as a whole. This is where the Rays pitching Romo for one inning is kind of annoying. If you like Segura and Cruz against a lefty, you have to take an at-bat vs Romo to get to that matchup. This side isn’t the most attractive game of the evening.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – TBD, but likely Jean Segura and Nelson Cruz

Secondary Options – TBD, but likely Dee Gordon, Mitch Haniger

Mariners Probable Starter – Mike Leake, RHP

4.93 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 13.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .277 average, .329 wOBA, 31.1 fly ball rate and 37.7 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .274 average, .352 wOBA, 30.3 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard contact rate

A few weeks ago, Leake had one of the worst starts of the season when he got destroyed byt the White Sox. Since that start, he’s actually not been too poor but I can’t get on board using him tonight. If his ground ball stuff isn’t working, he has nothing to fall back on. There’s no upside with his strikeout rate and Tampa is a top 10 team in strikeout rate against righty pitching. I also usually don’t target Leake because it can be tough to predict when he’s going to get rocked. You can take a stab at Wilson Ramos or C.J. Cron because they have the power to take Leake out of the park. This game looks very mediocre on paper and there’s a lot of better spots to attack.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Wilson Ramos, C.J. Cron

Home Run Pick – Wilson Ramos

DFS MLB – Phillies at Giants

Phillies Probable Starter – Nick Pivetta, RHP

3.26 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 28.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .245 average, .300 wOBA, 41.0 fly ball rate and 28.2 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .207 average, .249 wOBA, 35.3 fly ball rate and 26.4 hard contact rate

I might have found my favorite pitcher on the entire slate given the matchup and price point. The Giants have a very righty heavy lineup and Pivetta has absolutely owned that side of the split so far this year. He gets to pith in one of the best pitcher’s parks in the league and is under $9,000. Since the big name pitchers are all in tough matchups tonight, I wonder if Pivetta winds up being popular. Even if he is, that’s fine with me. The Giants carry the six highest strikeout rate in baseball against righty pitching. Even if Brandon Belt or Brandon Crawford hit him a little bit, there’s a clear path to 40 points for Pivetta tonight.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford

Giants Probable Starter – Chris Stratton, RHP

4.97 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 19.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .264 average, .361 wOBA, 34.0 fly ball rate and 39.4 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .247 average, .310 wOBA, 37.1 fly ball rate and 48.6 hard contact rate

This isn’t the toughest matchup for Stratton by the numbers, especially with Rhys Hoskins on the disabled list. If he were a more talented pitcher, I might actually lean towards attacking Philly since they have the highest strikeout rate in baseball against righties. There’s two hitters that will hit lefty against Stratton that I would likely play in a vacuum and that’s Odubel Herrera and Cesar Hernandez. Herrera can hit the ball out of any park and is at a great price point. My outfield is a little crowded and I’m not sure I can find room for him. Hernandez doesn’t carry lot of power, so you’re hoping for hits, stolen bases and runs if you play him. Pivetta is far and away the best play from this game.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Odubel Herrera

Secondary Options – Cesar Hernandez

Home Run Pick – Odubel Herrera

DFS MLB – FanDuel Sample Lineup number one

P – Nick Pivetta

C/1B – Greg Bird

2B – Yoan Moncada

3B – Matt Chapman

SS – Manny Machado

OF – Khris Davis, Kike Hernandez, Lorenzo Cain

Utility – Matt Kemp 

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For a 15 game slate, I think ownership might be a bit more concentrated that normal. There’s a few games that really standout for offense and a bunch of others that are very average at best. This lineup plugs in Pivetta then we focus on the Coors game with Hernandez and Kemp. The A’s hitters should be able to tee off on Ian Kennedy and they fit nicely with Lorenzo Cain. Bird and Machado both have massive home run potential given their matchup and we’ll finish off with Yoan Moncada against a pitcher with a low strikeout rate.

DFS MLB – FanDuel Sample Lineup number two 

P- Carlos Carrasco

C/1B – John Hicks

2B – Cesar Hernandez

3B – Justin Turner

SS – Amed Rosario

OF – Odubel Herrera, Travis Jankowski, Nicholas Castellanos

Utility -Jorge Soler

This lineup is the textbook definition of a GPP play. Carrasco is in a solid matchup but Minnesota is still a dangerous offense. Hicks and Castellanos mini stack against Jaime Garcia, Hernandez and Herrera mini stack against Chris Stratton and then we take some one-offs in Turner, Jankowski and Soler. There’s a lot of under the radar plays here that could pay off handsomely if they all hit.

The Core – Greg Bird, Khris Davis, Kike Hernandez, Lorenzo Cain

Stacks to Consider – Yankees or Orioles, Brewers or White Sox(might be offensive game of the night), Dodgers(at Colorado), Tigers(vs Toronto) and A’s(at Kansas City)

Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4lifeas MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.