MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Friday June 1

Welcome to the Friday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Thursday’s MLB DFS slate was turned upside down by weather as the best stacking spot of the day with the Yankees and Baltimore turned into an eventual PPD as the heavy rain risk and flash flood warnings mounted throughout the day and for many, including me, caused them to make a pivot with their builds. With high upside viable pivots in the Indians and Astros, it was not worth absorbing the risk that the Yankees bats would get rained out and for those who made that change they were rewarded as the Indians went off for 9 runs with Francisco Lindor leading the way with 2 HR’s and a slate leading 44 FantasyDraft points.

We have some BIG news at Fantasy CPR as we are now looking for PAID writers to join our team to write about fantasy sports. Seasonal or DFS, any sport you want – get your voice heard and get paid for talking fantasy sports. Apply today HERE!

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

MLB DFS – Starting Pitching Overview:

Welcome to Friday in MLB DFS where we have a really intriguing slate that at first glance has no weather issues (thankfully), a ton of offense to pay up for and a handful of elite pitchers in not so elite spots to sort through so get ready to make some tough decisions.

At the top of the pricing spectrum we have Stephen Strasburg in Atlanta, Chris Sale and Gerrit Cole facing off against each other in Houston and Carlos Carrasco and Jose Berrios going head to head in Minnesota. From a pure strikeout perspective it would be hard to argue that these names listed are not the top plays from a pure talent perspective but when you consider the offenses they are going against – Braves, Red Sox, Houston and Cleveland – there is more risk here than we would normally want to pay for pitchers all sitting above $20K, with the exception of Berrios at $17.8K.

So the question becomes, in the context of this slate where we have a game in Coors Field and the Yankees against Andrew Cashner (again), do we really want to allocate our salary cap dollars to elite arms in mediocre spots or should we look to pay down?

The more I look at this slate the more I think there is a slew of cheap options we can build around tonight if we want to load up on bats with Frankie Montas ($13.8K) as one of my favorite options against Kansas City. Montas made his 2018 debut last time out against Arizona and twirled a gem, going 6 innings, allowing only 3 hits, 1 ER and striking out 7 on his way to 26.5 FantasyDraft points. Montas has an electric arm with a high 90’s heater he throws nearly 80% of the time as he did in his first start with an average velocity of 96 MPH and works a slider off that heater as essentially a two pitch pitcher. If you look at the hitting profiles of the Royals they actually really struggle against fastballs of 96 MPH or higher and for a team with very little power in a pitcher’s park, they have 4-5 hitters in their projected line-up with sub .100 ISO’s against that pitch type. It may seem like a reach to expect the same 7 K outing tonight with a Royals team that does not strike out nearly as often as Arizona, but the talent level for Montas is very real and the price tag is reasonable enough where the K upside is worth the risk in my opinion.

There are a few arms in this $9K punt range on FantasyDraft that become very interesting SP2 choices and paths to all the bats you want with some varying degree of risk. Elieser Hernandez ($9.2K) has arguably the best match-up against an Arizona team that even with Jake Lamb back, continues to strike out at a top 5 rate in all of baseball over the last two weeks. Hernandez has been solid in his first three starts, going 5 innings in each outing, with 1-2 ER allowed and 2-3K’s per outing with only one walk allowed, showing the elite control he flashed throughout the minor league level. Hernandez had only pitched 15 innings above A ball before making it to the majors but this was a guy with a 28% K rate at that level so I am not going to just look at this 3 game sample size this year and assume 2-3 K’s is his ceiling especially against an Arizona team with the fourth highest K rate in baseball against RHP this season at 25.7%.

Although Sergio Romo is listed as the starter here today for Tampa Bay, this is going to be a bullpen game with Austin Pruitt ($9.1K) taking over for Romo once he does his opening gig. I was hesitant to go this route the first two times the Rays tried it because let’s be honest, there is risk here – Romo could get blown up and the Rays could decide to completely change course out of the pen – but the results fantasy wise have been there as Pruitt put up 5.2 innings, 5 K’s and 20+ fantasy points in this exact same spot last time which was one day after Ryan Yarbrough went 7 innings out of the pen with 7 K’s and 25 fantasy points. The industry as a whole is getting more comfortable with this approach in DFS so it may not be as low owned as you would think, but if you are down in this range, I would rather take a shot on Pruitt than someone like Mike Leake at the same price point.

MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots:

OK – Yankees versus Andrew Cashner – take two! This was the top spot yesterday until Mother Nature decided to change our plans but with Cashner being pushed back, I am going right back to it today. You know what the best part is? Many of the sites dropped the prices on these Yankees bats today assuming Kevin Gausman was starting but with the confirmation that Cashner is indeed the opposing pitcher we can attack the exact same spot for cheaper than we wanted to last night!

We have a pitcher in Andrew Cashner who has limited ability to miss bats, who walks hitters over 11% of the time, gives up 37% hard contact and will be pitching in one of the best park for right-handed power on tonight’s slate. There was a reason this was the chalk spot yesterday and now on Friday with the rain cleared, 85 degree temperatures, high humidity and slight winds blowing out to LF it may be an even better play. Go ahead and lock in the big bats of Aaron Judge ($10.7K) and Giancarlo Stanton ($9K) and do not overlook Greg Bird ($7.8K) who should be hitting between them with a price that is far too cheap considering the match-up.

The nice thing about tonight is that we have Coors Field on the slate so it should siphon some of the Yankee ownership away but I actually think finding a way to stack the Yankees bats WITH Coors Field is the approach I want to take when you consider the viable punt arms we can utilize.

The Dodgers bats will take on LHP Tyler Anderson, a pitcher who has given up a .200+ ISO to hitters from both sides of the plate this season and most notably he has seen his ground ball rate plummet from 44% last season to only 31% this year and with it his HR rate has skyrocketed, especially at home with 2 HR/9 which is way up from his .8 HR/9 mark at home last season. The Dodgers are loaded with right-handed bats to attack Anderson with Justin Turner ($9.1K) and Chris Taylor ($9.3K) with .200+ ISO rates against LHP the last two seasons and Turner specifically has hammered Anderson in his career, going 9 for 17 with 1 HR and 3 doubles. If you are stacking this spot do not overlook Cody Bellinger ($9.4K) who has a .254 ISO against LHP the last two seasons and a team high 50% fly ball rate which should play quite nicely in what I have heard is a nice hitting environment in Coors Field.

The Rockies will get a Dodgers bullpen game with a pitcher in Dennis Santana making his MLB debut in Coors Field – seriously why do teams do this to prospects? Santana does have nasty strikeout stuff with a 30% K rate in the minors at AA and AAA and has an 3/4 arm slot so the Rockies COULD struggle to pick up his pitches the first time they see him – meaning do not just assume it’s a rookie in Coors, load it up. Take a look at the video above of one of his minor league starts to get an idea of his delivery.

Santana has thrown between 80-90 pitches in each of his last four minor league starts so he is stretched out and will likely get a few turns through the Rockies line-up before they turn it over to the pen. With the uncertainty around Santana, I am less interested in playing the splits and would rather just go right to the studs here and lock in Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado to get my Rockies exposure.

MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:

The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!  

More from FanSided

• Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
• USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
• NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
• Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
• MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions

SP: Frankie Montas ($13.8K)

SP: Austin Pruitt ($9.1K)

IF: Justin Turner ($9.1K)

IF: Cody Bellinger ($9.4K)

IF: Greg Bird ($7.8K)

OF: Chris Taylor ($9.3K)

OF: Aaron Judge ($10.7K)

OF: Giancarlo Stanton ($9K)

UTIL: Nolan Arenado ($11.1K)

UTIL: Charlie Blackmon ($10.7K) 

Slate Overview: On a slate with so many elite name arms it may seem crazy to fade them all but if there was every the slate to do it, I think this is the one, as the opposing offenses are just not ones I want to pay premiums to pick on. Conversely we have three high upside offensive spots with the Yankees versus Cashner and the Rockies and Dodgers in Coors Field where I think making the case to go all-in on offense makes a ton of sense. It is going to mean taking risk at SP but in my mind there are viable options here that can deliver value and if the bats go off as we expect, then you could be sitting pretty.

Next: DraftKings MLB Picks

Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis.