DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Saturday, June 2
Welcome into the Saturday edition of the DFS MLB daily fantasy column! We have a nice eight game slate on our hands for tonight so let’s dig in.
The debut of this DFS MLB column on Fantasy CPR came together right before it was published, so allow me to introduce the goal of the piece to the new readers. The goal here is to break down each game, highlighting players to choose from to narrow the player pool. My goal is to be as consistent as possible and I play mostly 50/50’s. It’s not the most exciting way to make money in DFS, but a consistent cash game will build your bankroll and that’s the main idea. While the pricing referenced is FanDuel pricing, hopefully this helps DFS players everywhere get that lineup set.
Last night was not the best debut as the cash lineup crashed and burned. Fading Coors for the most part did not work in our favor but you can’t win them all. The nice thing about baseball is we can get right back on the horse tonight!
DFS MLB – Red Sox at Astros
Red Sox Probable Starter – David Price, LHP
4.04 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 22.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .182 average, .248 wOBA, 33.3 fly ball rate and 18.5 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .236 average, .311 wOBA, 42.5 fly ball rate and 33.6 hard contact rate
The Astros touched up Chris Sale a little bit yesterday so I have exactly zero interest in David Price in any format today. Some of the metrics look pretty good but I personally think Price is living on borrowed time. He’s already had a couple of very poor starts and tonight could be one of those nights. Houston will likely roll the same lineup, which means nine righty hitters. One of the best way to save salary is to look at Max Stassi and Evan Gattis. I wouldn’t talk you out of either, but FanDuel has not caught up with Gattis. He’s posted double-digit points in nine of his last 16 starts and is still just $2,500. The Astros stack is full in play and any of the top four hitters can be used as one-offs.
Astros Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Evan Gattis
Secondary Options – Max Stassi, J.D. Davis
Astros Probable Starter – Justin Verlander, RHP
1.11 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and 32.3 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .131 average, .197 wOBA, 55.7 fly ball rate and 22.2 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .167 average, .212 wOBA, 57.9 fly ball rate and 24.6 hard contact rate
Even in the toughest of matchups, it’s hard not to want to play Verlander. Pitching on this slate is in relatively short supply and it’s very possible that I’ll be paying for Verlander in cash games. Any pitcher who can dominate in Yankee Stadium with the stats that Verlander has to back them up means he’s worth the price. The other factor that Verlander has in his favor is Mookie Betts is now officially on the disabled list. Betts hasn’t played in about a week but know we know he won’t be in action tonight. Boston still has a better offense than a lot of other teams without him but he’s not the leading A.L. MVP candidate for no reason. Verlander likely doesn’t have a ceiling game in front of him but he does feel safe.
Red Sox Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – J.D. Martinez
Home Run Pick – Carlos Correa
DFS MLB – Cubs at Mets
Cubs Probable Starter – Mike Montgomery, LHP
4.35 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 15.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .250 average, .284 wOBA, 10.7 fly ball rate and 20.7 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .247 average, .294 wOBA, 34.8 fly ball rate and 23.5 hard contact rate
Montgomery may not be a quality major league starter at this point in his career, but he’s an elite tournament option for one reason – the Mets cannot hit lefties for love or money. If you played Thursday night, Jose Quintana was the chalk at about 50 percent ownership. That came in the midst of him having a terrible season. Montgomery could score between 30-40 points if things go right for him tonight. New York is the best possible matchup he could ask for and he just missed a quality start last time. The Mets team is a bottom feeder in average, ISO, OPS and wOBA. I was interested in Brandon Nimmo as an against the grain play with it being a lefty on lefty matchup. However, Nimmo strikes out at a 40 percent clip against lefties. That’s too dangerous even for me.
Mets Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Asdrubal Cabrera, Devin Mesoraco
Mets Probable Starter – Jacob deGrom, RHP
1.52 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 32.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .200 average, .251 wOBA, 31.1 fly ball rate and 20.5 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .197 average, .226 wOBA, 29.7 fly ball rate and 28.4 hard contact rate
deGrom has averaged 42.6 FanDuel points a game and that number would be pushing 50 if his bullpen could help him out and stop blowing wins after he leaves the game. Much like Verlander, deGrom is in a difficult matchup on paper and I’m still having a hard time not liking deGrom tonight. There isn’t a huge price difference between the two so I’d likely find the extra salary for Verlander. You can go with a low-owned Cubs stack if you wanted but that’s not the route I would go at all. deGrom is pitching at the best level of any pitcher in baseball not named Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander. He can get the job done today even against the Cubs.
Cubs Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Anthony Rizzo(BvP data if that floats your boat), Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber
Home Run Pick – Devin Mesoraco
DFS MLB – Dodgers at Rockies
Dodgers Probable Starter – Walker Buehler, RHP
2.20 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 30.0 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .194 average, .255 wOBA, 33.3 fly ball rate and 28.3 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .181 average, .194 wOBA, 19.6 fly ball rate and 33.9 hard contact rate
If this game was in Los Angeles, I would be hammering Buehler as one of the best plays of the night. Seeing as how it’s in Denver, I won’t be going there. I will say he’s got a chance to have a rock solid game but the odds are low. Coors has been my nemesis all season long so far. The nights when I go heavy, we get a 3-2 game with one home run. The nights I fade it(looking at Friday night angrily), we get a game that’s over 15 runs combined. I have a lot of respect for Beuhler and what he’s done so far and will ride the lightning once again. I’m not going to go crazy with Rockie hitters this evening. My interest for hitters is very much on the other side of this game.
Rockies Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMahieu
Secondary Options – Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story
Rockies Probable Starter – German Marquez, RHP
4.21 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 21.0 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .258 average, .310 wOBA, 36.1 fly ball rate and 30.9 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .257 average, .343 wOBA, 26.7 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard contact rate
This isn’t a huge surprise but Marquez has been getting shredded at home so far this season. Here’s the really weird part – the Dodgers hitters saw their prices drop by a couple of hundred dollars all the way across the board. I don’t understand why because this isn’t the most difficult matchup. I missed the boat on LA yesterday but I might be right back to them tonight. Matt Kemp and Chris Taylor homered last night and they could very easily do it again in this spot. Marquez is a righty, which the Dodgers are slightly worse at. Justin Turner has been a little quiet against righties but it’s important to note it’s a very small sample size due to injury. You could play any big name from the Dodgers offense and you don’t have to pay an arm and a leg to do it.
Dodgers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Matt Kemp, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Yasmani Grandal
Secondary Options – Cody Bellinger
Home Run Pick – Cody Bellinger
DFS MLB – Reds at Padres
Reds Probable Starter – Matt Harvey, RHP
5.63 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 17.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .300 average, .416 wOBA, 46.3 fly ball rate and 44.6 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .253 average, .304 wOBA, 46.3 fly ball rate and 34.7 hard contact rate
We’re only on the fourth game of the slate but I think I might have three core players in Justin Verlander, Evan Gattis and Travis Jankowski. The latter is only $2,500 and Harvey has just been wrecked by lefties so far. If you lock those three in, you’re left with about $3,100 for each spot left to fill. Jankowski hits for a high average, could score a couple runs and might even steal a base tonight. The power bat I might chase is Eric Hosmer. He has a .384 wOBA against righties so far this year and has the power to leave the yard, Petco or not. I don’t think I’ll really go after the righty hitters because of the park factors at work here. Harvey isn’t remotely usable for me this evening, even though San Diego is a good matchup on paper.
Padres Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Travis Jankowski, Eric Hosmer
Secondary Options – Cory Spangenberg(minimum price is always a good thing)
Padres Probable Starter – Eric Lauer, LHP
7.67 ERA, 2.08 WHIP and 19.1 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .333 average, .410 wOBA, 45.5 fly ball rate and 34.8 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .352 average, .428 wOBA, 35.9 fly ball rate and 43.2 hard contact rate
I really wonder how many players will want to play Reds hitters tonight since their in San Diego but we need to pay attention to this matchup no matter where they play. Lauer is minimum price and I still wouldn’t go near him this evening. He’s really struggled and the Reds could smash everything in sight. The top four hitters are interesting with the possible exception of Joey Votto. I’m a big fan of his but his wOBA is .291 at this stage of the season. He could break out at any point but I want the other three hitters near the top of the lineup.
Tucker Barnhart might be the best cheap play of the slate. He’s just $2,200 and hits second in the lineup. I will take all the Eugenio Suarez this evening and even Scooter Gennett is a great play because he thrives in lefty vs lefty matchups. If the Reds fly under the radar with Houston and Coors on the slate, they could be a tournament winning stack.
Reds Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Eugenio Suarez, Tucker Barnhart, Scooter Gennett
Secondary Options – Joey Votto, Adam Duvall
Home Run Pick – Eugenio Suarez and Eric Hosmer
DFS MLB – Rangers at Angels
Rangers Probable Starter – Cole Hamels, LHP
3.74 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 23.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .296 average, .351 wOBA, 32.4 fly ball rate and 32.4 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .214 average, .323 wOBA, 35.3 fly ball rate and 45.3 hard contact rate
I came into the season fully expecting that Hamels would be washed up by this point but he’s actually been a pretty solid option. He might be a pretty good tournament pick this evening. You would think that the Angels would smack around lefties since they have a lot of righty hitters but that hasn’t been the case. They are 21st or worse in average, OPS, ISO and wOBA against southpaws this season. The strikeout rate is still pretty low but I don’t think anyone will play Hamels. What’s weird is Hamels has displayed reverse splits in 2018 and that end of things meshes well against the Angels. The only lefty they have is Shohei Ohtani but he’s not figured out lefty pitching with a .262 wOBA against the handedness. If Hamels drops a 40 point performance tonight, I wouldn’t be surprised.
Angels Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Mike Trout
Secondary Options – Andrelton Simmons, Luis Valbuena(if he plays)
Angels Probable Starter – Garrett Richards, RHP
3.67 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 25.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .194 average, .289 wOBA, 30.4 fly ball rate and 31.9 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .245 average, .319 wOBA, 30.3 fly ball rate and 42.1 hard contact rate
Much like his opponent, Richards is tournament viable tonight because this is a sneaky good matchup on paper for him. Most of the big boppers for Texas are lefty hitters. Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo and Shin-soo Choo are all lefties. Adrian Beltre is on the better side of the splits but has seen his season be derailed by injury. He has one home run right now. I’d be willing to take a chance on Richards because if he’s got his good stuff working, he could have a big time game. I don’t think I’m going to have much exposure to the Rangers offense at all.
Rangers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Delino DeShields, Adrian Beltre, Joey Gallo
Home Run Pick – Luis Valbuena
DFS MLB – Phillies at Giants
Phillies Probable Starter – Vince Velasquez, RHP
4.08 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 28.5 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .295 average, .357 wOBA, 46.5 fly ball rate and 29.9 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .186 average, .236 wOBA, 40.6 fly ball rate and 26.9 hard contact rate
I locked into Nick Pivetta very early in the process last night and it didn’t work out at all. Just because the play didn’t work yesterday doesn’t mean it can’t work tonight. The Giants play a lot of righties and they carry a high strikeout rate. Velasquez strikes out a ton of batters and neutralizes righties in a major way. Even though his fly ball rate is high to both sides of the plate, the hard contact is extremely low. I think Velasquez is in the running for the second best pitcher on the slate but I do like two other pitchers slightly better. The only two Giant hitters I would consider would be Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford, although I will say both are just a little more expensive on FanDuel than I’m really willing to pay.
Giants Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford
Giants Probable Starter – Andrew Suarez, LHP
5.65 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 23.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .200 average, .229 wOBA, 30.0 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .327 average, .420 wOBA, 33.3 fly ball rate and 49.4 hard contact rate
If players are just hunting the box score number, Suarez looks like a terrible option tonight. He’s not an amazing play but his past schedule has been absolutely brutal. The last six starts have come in Colorado, in Houston, vs Cincinnati, at Pittsburgh, at Atlanta and vs San Diego. That’s a start at Coors and he drew three of the top five offenses in baseball against lefty pitching. Philly lost Rhys Hoskins for the foreseeable future to a broken jaw and the best hitter left is lefty Odubel Herrera. It’s really just a matter of price with Suarez and he’s got potential for a game out of nowhere tonight. he needs to control Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana and Maikel Franco. If he can manage that, he might be able to hit the 30-35 point range. With the game in San Francisco, I think you either play the pitchers or let the game be.
Phillies Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Cesar Hernandez
Secondary Options – Carlos Santana, Maikel Franco
Home Run Pick – Maikel Franco
DFS MLB – Rays at Mariners
Rays Probable Starter – Chris Archer, RHP
4.29 EA, 1.30 WHIP and 23.5 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .283 average, .361 wOBA, 29.2 fly ball rate and 39.2 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .230 average, .290 wOBA, 38.1 fly ball rate and 43.8 hard contact rate
When Archer is on the mound, one of the first things I check is the opposing team’s pitch data against the slider. Seattle doesn’t have a ton of good hitters against the pitch, with Dee Gordon being the best. He’s not exactly the player you worry about hitting a home run but he could hit value on stolen bases alone. Archer has really been pitching well of late and I’m tending to ignore the Mariners low strikeout rate as a team. Mitch Haniger has really cooled off(home run last night notwithstanding) and Robinson Cano has been lost to suspension. I really never play Archer in cash because he’s too volatile but he’s a great play this evening in a tournament setting. When Archer is pitching well, he can be in the Cy Young conversation. That’s not a player you want to target tonight.
Mariners Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary options – Dee Gordon, Mitch Haniger Kyle Seager
Mariners Probable Starter – Marco Gonzales, LHP
3.60 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 20.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .242 average, .286 wOBA, 27.6 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .285 average, .328 wOBA, 24.2 fly ball rate and 32.9 hard contact rate
Gonzales hasn’t been an abject disaster too far in 2018 and he’s coming off back-to-back 40+ performances. That might be a little high tonight but I really don’t mind taking a stab with Gonzales at all. Tampa has made strides in being a better team against lefties this year and some of them have worked. However, they started off hot and are starting to get that crash course, becoming just an average offense against lefties. That’s actually the perfect description for this game, “just average.” I won’t be heavy on it at all unless something drastic changes. The only real exception is C.J. Cron, who has worked over lefties with his wOBA over .400 all season long. Both pitchers are fine, but Archer definitely holds a much bigger upside.
Rays Hitters to Target
Elite Options – C.J. Cron
Secondary Options – Wilson Ramos, Denard Span
Home Run Pick – C.J. Cron
DFS MLB – Marlins at Diamondbacks
Marlins Probable Starter – Caleb Smith, LHP
3.51 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 29.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .279 average, .308 wOBA, 34.1 fly ball rate and 41.5 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .153 average, .250 wOBA, 55.4 fly ball rate and 32.6 hard contact rate
From a point-per-dollar standpoint Smith is my favorite play on the entire slate. Smith draws the Arizona lineup in Arizona, where the humidor is. It should be noted that Arizona has a solid offense against lefty pitching as they are in the top half of baseball all the way around. I’m a big believer in what Smith is capable of and past Paul Goldschmidt(still hitting lefties very well despite his putrid season), the D-Backs don’t have the most dangerous squad ever against the handedness. Even if Smith lets in a run or two, his strikeouts should make up for it. Goldy himself is an excellent tournament play at $3,600. The only other hitter I might play in a GPP is John Ryan Murphy, who is destroying lefty pitching in his limited playing time. No Diamondbacks make a cash lineup for me because I think Smith is the real deal.
Diamondbacks Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Paul Goldschmidt, John Ryan Murphy
Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Zach Greinke, RHP
3.65 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 27.1 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .238 average, .311 wOBA, 35.5 fly ball rate and 43.4 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .228 average, .284 wOBA, 39.6 fly ball rate and 44.3 hard contact rate
There will be a day that we actually attack Greinke because that amount of fly balls and hard contact is coming back to bite him at some point. I can’t play any Marlins with that much confidence with so many other offenses in big spots. I would also help if Miami would field a realistic team but we can’t control that. Miami has ruined that party before for chalk pitchers, but Greinke is likely one of the safer plays on the board. He should get 30-40 points but I’m not sure he can go higher today.
Marlins Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour
FanDuel DFS MLB Sample Lineup
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P – Justin Verlander
C/1B – Evan Gattis
2B – DJ LeMahieu
3B – Eugenio Suarez
SS – Chris Taylor
OF – Matt Kemp, Adam Duvall, Travis Jankowski
Utility – Cory Spangenberg
For now, I’m spending cheap on thee players with Gattis, Jankowski and Spangenberg. With all that salary, I lock in Verlander then I move on to take a still far too cheap DJ LeMahieu to pair with two other Coors hitters in Taylor and Kemp. We polish this lineup off with two Reds to call it a day.
The Core – Eugenio Suarez, Travis Jankowski, DJ LeMahieu, Justin Verlander
Stacks to Consider – Reds(at San Diego), Astros(vs Boston) and Dodgers(at Colorado)
As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4lifeas MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.