FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups: Saturday June 2 Early Only

Welcome to the FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups column for Saturday, June 2nd 2018. This is the Early Only edition. We’re a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you build a DFS MLB optimal lineup for each slate.

Last night’s FanDuel MLB slate was frustrating for this column. Nick Pivetta was set up nicely for a great night, but was a disappointment, with only 12 FanDuel MLB points. The better bet would’ve been to either pay up for Stephen Strasburg, for 45 points, or grab Mike Foltynewicz, in a risky bet, or 70 points.

Folty pitched a heck of a game, one-hitting the Nats most of the time. There were some nice value options last night too. 25-year-old Dominican prospect Frankie Montas pitched a nice game for the Athletics, in Kansas City, for a solid 40 FanDuel MLB points on a modest $7,200 FanDuel MLB salary. But the biggest value shocker was Clay Buchholz ($5,700) fanning nine against the Marlins in Arizona.

The Yankees stack wasn’t bad, but not nearly as great as we were expecting. Instead, the best stack of the night was the Athletics in Kansas City. We liked the stack, and one of our readers pointed out the potential on Twitter, but we thought the Yankees had a better match up. They didn’t. The A’s piled on an amazing 16 runs. Also, the game in Coors Field, shocker, was the other place to be.

With yesterday’s slate in the review mirror, we’re looking forward to a split-slate Saturday for FanDuel MLB. Fortunately, it appears FanDuel has been taking notes of feedback, and they actually have a full half slate for each period.

So in the Early Only slate, we have seven games to consider, starting between 2:10pm EDT and 4:10pm EDT. That will be a little challenging with lineups, but we should be safe. We’ll get to the Main slate later, but we play the balance of the leagues games at that point of the day. We have some great pitching match ups for both slates.

Before we get there, a reminder to never take a DFS MLB optimal lineup as ‘bible’ for your personal lineup each day. Use the suggestions as guidance. Also, make sure you follow final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR or me @mattymcmatt17 look for late breaking lineup news.

Weather Note: Here we go again! Very heavy rainfall with the threat of thunderstorms will make the Yankees and Orioles game a problem for the Early Only slate. Maybe they have an incredibly long delay, but the odds of a delay are high for this one. Also, postponement is certainly likely. We’re fading the O’s and Yanks for the Early Only on Saturday.

Another potential threat is the Twins and Indians, in Minneapolis this afternoon. The storms could break up, though, as they approach the city. But there will be a period of time where we may be unsure of the outcome. Best bet is a delay for this one, and they still get it in.

With weather-related considerations addressed, let’s get to the top pitching options…

FanDuel MLB: Top Pitcher Early Only Slate

Boy do we have a conundrum for the Early Only slate with the pitching pick. If you only look at the pitching metrics for this slate, it appears to have several juicy high K-rates. Unfortunately, the match ups don’t work out well for several of the options.

J.A. Happ ($9,500) has been hot this season, with some odd mishaps (pun intended) along the way. We’d love to start a high K-rate pitcher against the Tigers, but Happ is a lefty. The Tigers have one of the lowest K-rates in baseball against left-handed pitchers, 17.5%, and a very solid 109 wRC+. That’s not where we want to be today.

Trevor Cahill ($8,400) has the best xFIP of any starter for this slate, 2.86, and a solid 24.6% K-rate, but he’s also facing the Royals in Kansas City. Sure, the A’s crushed the royals in a shutout last night, but the Royals strikeout potential is low.

Against RHP’s this season, they have a 17.7% rate, lowest in baseball. They may not get a lot of runs, leading Cahill to a 30 to 40 FanDuel MLB point play, but we need a greater ceiling.

Gio Gonzalez ($9,100) is also having a great season, averaging nearly 36 FanDuel MLB points-per-game. But the lefty is facing the Braves today. While Gio has a solid 23.2% K-rate, the Braves have a 17.3% K-rate against lefties this season, the lowest in baseball. Again, no thanks.

We don’t like the weather odds in Baltimore, so Masahiro Tanaka ($8,700) and Kevin Gausman ($7,300) are crossed off our list. Even if the game is eventually played, we do NOT wait our starting pitchers sitting around waiting to get the game going. In fact, in many cases like this, teams sometimes have to turn to another set of pitchers to play the game.

OK, so who do we like for this slate? We’ve narrowed it down to a top pick and value play. Trevor Bauer ($10,000) is only a little risky because of the delay/PPD potential in Minneapolis. Bauer has a 28.6% K-rate, highest of any starting pitcher in this slate, and the Twins have mediocre success this season against RHP’s.

If you don’t want to stomach the weather-related risk, and/or you’re looking for better value out of your pitcher pick, Chad Kuhl ($7,800) is a decent play. The problem with Kuhl is lefty bats. When Kuhl has a right-heavy lineup, he generally does well, fanning six to eight hitters.

But lefties have been crushing Chad this season. Fortunately, the Cardinals do not have a lot of lefties on their roster, with only two to three likely in the lineup today. So we think this is a safer way to get 30 to 40 FanDuel MOB points, while also affording plenty of expensive bats, and avoiding the rain.

FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Early Only Slate

For the same reason the pitcher picks were so difficult, finding the right Early Only offensive stack is also not easy. Many of the starting pitchers have K-rate challenges with their match ups in the first half of the day, but they also have low home run rates, a decent xFIP’s.

However, there are some interesting outcomes as you dig further into some of these decent xFIP results. Braves hurler Brandon McCarthy has an appealing 3.82 xFIP, which looks like something you’d want to fade against for an offense.

However, upon further review, we think that xFIP will get worse as the season progresses. For one, McCarthy has a .352 BABIP, suggesting regression. But also, Brandon has a 5.02 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. So while McCarthy has kept his walk rate below 8%, and his home runs per nine are just below 1.3, he’s giving up a ton of hits and runs.

That bodes well for a Nationals stack in SunTrust park today, where the air should be fairly hot and humid. Value plays like Pedro Severino ($2,000) and Wilmer Difo ($2,700) are of course in play for that stack, but we’re going to also be able to afford someone like Bryce Harper ($5,200) if we’re taking the value play with Kuhl at pitcher.

While we’re worried about some weather-related delays in Minneapolis, it does appear the weather should clear out at some point in the evening, allowing the game to eventually play. Delays concern me for pitchers, but for offense we should be fine. So the Indians are in play for an offensive stack against Lance Lynn, who’s sporting a miserable 5.94 ERA and 1.82 WHIP.

FanDuel MLB: Summary and Example Lineup

Before we jump into the summary, we need to re-address affordability. Even if you have Kuhl slated as your pitcher, affording the Indians and Nationals on offense today is going to be difficult. You can either try to find a cheaper pitcher, or you can use a mini-stack with the Nats or Tribe, while also using a mini-stack with the Athletics in Kansas City.

The A’s bats are hot, and there are some sneaky plays for today like Mark Canha ($2,400) or Marcus Semien ($3,600). Both weren’t in the lineup yesterday, but should be in the lineup today. Semien just came off of Paternity leave, and was in the stadium yesterday. Today, he should be on the field (and congrats to Marcus!).

So with the Nats, Braves, and A’s in your lineup for offensive stacks, we’ll grab either Trevor Bauer or Chad Kuhl as our top pitcher picks. With Bauer, you’ll need to find better value in each lineup, and with Kuhl, you can grab more expensive offensive options like Harper or Ramirez (or both).

With that summary in mind, here’s a look at a sample lineup for the Early Only FanDuel MLB slate on Saturday, June 2nd:

FanDuel MLB Early Only Slate Sample Lineup:

P             Chad Kuhl ($7,800)

C/1B      Pedro Severino ($2,000)

2B          Wilmer Difo ($2,700)

3B          Jose Ramirez ($5,400)

SS          Marcus Semien ($3,600)

OF          Bryce Harper ($5,200)

OF          Greg Allen ($2,800)

OF          Juan Soto ($3,100)

UTIL       Mark Canha ($2,300)

Remaining Salary: $0

Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for today. You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel NHL lineups.  We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.

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