DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Sunday, June 3
Welcome into the Sunday edition of the DFS MLB game by game breakdown column! We have eight games in front of us so let’s get busy.
Last night was a solid night in MLB DFS as we managed to hang onto every contest we entered! We almost were going to get bit by the Zack Greinke Chalk but our 165 was enough to survive. If only we had played Jacob deGrom and Joc Pederson, we would have been in some real business. The tournament lineup I posted on Twitter did well too with over 185 points. My Reds deserted me last night but at least everything ended well. The main slate is only eight games today so we’ll have to take our opportunity to crush it! If you’re into the high-end ace pitchers, this slate isn’t for you. Fortunately that will leave us plenty of money for hitters today. Let’s dig in!
*All pricing referenced will be FanDuel pricing
DFS MLB – Yankees at Orioles
Yankees Probable Starter – Domingo German, RHP
5.45 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 27.5 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .182 average, .268 wOBA, 34.7 fly ball rate and 26.5 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .262 average, .342 wOBA, 29.3 fly ball rate and 43.9 hard contact rate
If you’re a pitcher going against the Orioles, you really don’t want to be worse against right handed hitters since Baltimore can roll a lineup that has nine righties. We’re only on the first game, but Manny Machado is almost a lock for me today. For one thing, there are no expensive aces on the mound which is going to free up the salary to comfortably pay $4,300 for Machado. He’s smashing right handed pitching with a .430 wOBA against them this year.
In addition, German throws his curveball 38 percent of the time. Machado is tied for ninth against that pitch n the majors in 2018. He has double dong potential today. Teammates Mark Trumbo and Adam Jones are also attractive as German is giving up 1.56 HR/9 so far this season. I’d have a hard time using German in any format today. The matchup is just too scary even though his strikeout rate is very high.
Orioles Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Manny Machado, Adam Jones
Secondary Options – Mark Trumbo, Trey Mancini, Joey Rickard
Orioles Probable Starter – Alex Cobb, RHP
6.80 ERA, 1.81 WHIP and 11.5 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .412 average, .473 wOBA, 29.2 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .311 average, .382 wOBA, 28.3 fly ball rate and 33.0 hard contact rate
Cobb himself is totally off the radar because he doesn’t strike anyone out. He’s yet to have an outing that he didn’t give up runs in so his high score on the season is 34. Seeing as how he’s not missing any bats and is pitching in a hitter’s park, this could be a real short day against this powerful Yankee lineup. The odds are if they make contact often, they’re going to make that pitcher pay for it.
It is interesting to note that Cobb has not given up a ton of fly balls but this is a spot where that won’t hold me back. I would be stunned if Cobb is effective in this game so it’s a matter of which New York bats to prioritize. First with a bullet point is Aaron Judge. If you’re not going to miss his bat, good luck with that. The next two would be Brett Gardner and Greg Bird. A 1-2-3 stack of the New York lineup has a great chance to put up some major points this afternoon.
Yankees Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, Greg Bird, Gleyber Torres
Secondary Options – Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez
Home Run Pick – Manny Machado
DFS MLB – Cubs at Mets
Cubs Probable Starter – Jon Lester, LHP
2.71 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 20.7 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .245 average, .300 wOBA, 38.9 fly ball rate and 31.6 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .226 average, .307 wOBA, 39.6 fly ball rate and 35.0 hard contact rate
Whenever Lester is on the hill, I’m always torn on what to do. Frankly, he’s not the pitcher he used to be and I think the ERA and the WHIP have some regression coming. I usually run at least one stack against him because it will typically be low-owned but I can’t bring myself to do that today. Lefty pitchers are the kryptonite for the Mets lineup. Jose Quintana and Mike Montgomery scored 46 and 31 points these past couple nights and Lester is a better pitcher than either one of them. I almost never play Lester but with the pitching options available and the best matchup on the board, I feel compelled to do it in cash games.
If you want to take a hitter against Lester, Asdrubal Cabrera has a .351 wOBA against southpaws and hits the fastball and cutter well, which are the primary two pitches for Lester. Past him, I just can’t get excited about Mets hitters at all.
Mets Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Asdrubal Cabrera
Secondary Options – None
Mets Probable Starter – Steven Matz, LHP
3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 21.0 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .172 average, .299 wOBA, 9.1 fly ball rate and 8.7 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .229 average, .334 wOBA, 42.6 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard contact rate
If you forced me to play just one stud between Aaron Judge and Kris Bryant today, it might well be Bryant in his matchup. Matz doesn’t look like a bad pitcher by many of his metrics until you get the fly ball rate and hard contact given up to righties. That points me to the direction of the numbers getting a lot worse for that side of the split. Bryant is carrying a .578 wOBA against lefties and an OBP of .490. He’s also way past due for a bomb since it’s been 15 games since his last one. On the cheaper end of things, both Willson Contreras and Addison Russel rate well against lefties. Don’t take for granted that Contreras will start since they played 14 innings last night. Addison Russell has a .375 wOBA against the handedness and I don’t mind him as a cheaper SS to make everyone else fit.
Cubs Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Kris Bryant, Albert Almora
Secondary Options – Addison Russell, Willson Contreras, Ian Happ
Home Run Pick – Kris Bryant
DFS MLB – Blue Jays at Tigers
Blue Jays Probable Starter – Aaron Sanchez, LHP
4.77 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 16.7 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .308 average, .400 wOBA, 30.8 fly ball rate and 30.8 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .205 average, .290 wOBA, 30.9 fly ball rate and 33.0 hard contact rate
I think there’s enough lefty or switch hitters in the Tigers lineup to give Sanchez trouble and I won’t be playing him everywhere. He’s throwing most a fastball and a change and there’s a player that stands out with that pitch data, wOBA against the pitcher handedness and Sanchez’s weakness. That’s Jeimer Candelario because he hits those pitches well and is just flat out a good hitter. He’ll bat lefty against Sanchez and while he’s better against lefty pitching, he’s no slouch against righties. Leonys Martin and Niko Goodrum are also in the good side of the split and very affordable. This whole game is hitters or bust for cash purposes but the next pitcher on our list has at least a glimmer of potential today.
Tigers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Jeimer Candelario, Leonys Martin
Secondary Options – Niko Goodrum
Tigers Probable Starter, Michael Fulmer, RHP
4.60 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 20.1 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .250 average, .349 wOBA, 33.0 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .252 average, .308 wOBA, 32.5 fly ball rate and 39.3 hard contact rate
The splits are about dead even for Fulmer and that doesn’t really help us too much when figuring out potential targets. The pitch type data is mostly contradictory in the respect of Fulmer throws mostly fastballs and slider. The good slider hitters for Toronto don’t the fastball well and vice versa. The best hitter by that metric is Justin Smoak, who rates well against the fastball and pretty good against the slider.
The Toronto offense is poor across the board in a lot of offensive categories with one exception – ISO, and that means they’ve hit for power when they’ve hit. I may not have very much exposure to the Blue Jays hitters and there’s at least an argument to be made to play Fulmer in a GPP. Toronto does have the seventh highest strikeout rate against righties in baseball. If Fulmer keeps them in the yard, he could approach 40 points.
Blue Jays Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Justin Smoak
Secondary Options – Curtis Granderson, Devon Travis, Teoscar Hernandez
Home Run Pick – Jeimer Cadelario stays hot
DFS MLB – Nationals at Braves
Nationals Probable Starter – Jeremy Hellickson, RHP
2.30 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 21.0 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .233 average, .300 wOBA, 28.6 fly ball rate and 29.6 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .203 average, .231 wOBA, 27.7 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard contact rate
When someone can figure out how in the world Hellickson has been so good this season, please tweet me and let me know. This isn’t even a situation where he’s gotten lucky, the metrics are legitimately good. If you put these stats with a more recognizable name, he’d be more than $6,600 even in a tough matchup against the Braves. Since he’s facing Atlanta, that will be a hard pass for me. The Braves squad is worse against right handed pitching but there’s to much talent for me to hit “submit” on a lineup with Hellickson as an anchor. He’s only hit the quality start bonus once despite how well he’s pitching. This isn’t a day that I’m on the Braves but I suppose any of their lefties isn’t a terrible play.
Braves Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Freddie Freeman
Secondary Options – Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis, Johan Carmago
Braves Probable Starter – Anibal Sanchez, RHP
3.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 20.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .241 average, .362 wOBA, 36.8 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .237 average, .309 wOBA, 28.1 fly ball rate and 15.6 hard contact rate
Sanchez got lit up by the Mets in his last start and that’s not terribly surprising because it was his first start off the disabled list. Now that we’ve got that out of the way, we have to figure out how heavy we want to go on Nationals. I don’t know if I’d pay all the way up to Bryce Harper today but I’m trying to see the trap that is Juan Soto’s price. All the young stud has done since his callup is hit just about .350, hit two home runs, walk six times and steal a base. He’s just $3,000 and it doesn’t seem right. I’m finding it hard to not play him already.
Nationals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Bryce Harper, Juan Soto
Secondary Options – Mark Reynolds, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner
Home Run Pick – Anthony Rendon
DFS MLB – Indians at Twins
Indians Probable Starter – Mike Clevinger, RHP
3.14 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 21.5 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .227 average, .284 wOBA, 31.2 fly ball rate and 29.8 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .248 average, .300 wOBA, 35.9 fly ball rate and 31.4 hard contact rate
I’m struggling to understand exactly why Clevinger is so expensive on FanDuel. Minnesota has one of the lower strikeout rates in the majors and Clevinger’s 21.5 in 2018 looks pretty solid…until you realize his rate for the 2017 season was 27.5. He’s still a very good pitcher and is capable of 40+ point efforts. It’s not the likeliest in my eyes and I can’t get on board with him being the most expensive option. I’d rather just use Lester and pocket the savings. Eddie Rosario is probably being severely overlooked by the public but even with how well he’s been hitting, I’m not rushing to get him in my lineup today. I don’t think I’ll have a ton of exposure to this side of the game. Even a Twins stack doesn’t seem super attractive on paper.
Twins Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Eddie Rosario
Secondary Options – Max Kepler, Miguel Sano
Twins Probable Starter – Kyle Gibson, RHP
3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 24.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .247 average, .311 wOBA, 40.9 fly ball rate and 32.4 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .196 average, .277 wOBA, 26.7 fly ball rate and 37.3 hard contact rate
I wouldn’t want to roster a pitcher like Kyle Gibson against the Indians on a good day because the odds are he doesn’t have the stuff to shut down a good offense. Once you add in the left handed hitter splits, I’m all the way out on Gibson. Maybe I wind up missing a great start. I’d rather play in that style than play Gibson to watch him get waxed by the top of the order lefties for Cleveland. Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor and Michale Brantley all have a wOBA over .385 against righties and that is a poor matchup for Gibson. A 1-2-3 stack is perfectly in play in GPP’s but I’m probably not going to spend up to play all three of them in cash. It’s taking too many chances on the rest of your lineup. Those three and Lester leaves you under $2,500 per player to build the rest of your team.
Indians Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley
Secondary Options – Yonder Alonso
Home Run Pick – Michael Brantley
DFS MLB – Brewers at White Sox
Brewers Probable Starter – Brent Suter, LHP
4.63 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 19.1 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .224 average, .292 wOBA, 36.7 fly ball rate and 36.5 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .279 average, .352 wOBA, 35.6 fly ball rate and 35.8 hard contact rate
When there’s a mediocre lefty pitching against the White Sox, we go to Jose Abreu and Tim Anderson. I guess FanDuel knows that because they are both priced up. Anderson is interesting because the actually has a lower strikeout against lefties so far this year. If we play Machado, I’m not sure I’ll play Time Anderson on top of that. Both should be popular and if I’m just taking one, I’d likely side with Abreu ever so slightly. You could also add Daniel Palka if you were getting into stacking the White Sox bats.
White Sox Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu
Secondary Options – Daniel Palka
White Sox Probable Starter – Dylan Covey, RHP
3.63 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 18.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .323 average, .360 wOBA, 24.0 fly ball rate and 52.0 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .211 average, .217 wOBA, 16.7 fly ball rate and 36.7 hard contact rate
Covey has made three starts this season and only one of them was actually any good. That came against the Orioles but also appears to be an anomaly. Travis Shaw and Christian Yelich jump to the top of this list once you look at the splits and Shaw has the advantage by pitch type data as well. Shaw is the best fastball hitter on the Brewers squad and Covey pumps in a ton of fastballs. The Milwaukee lefties are rightly expensive and I wouldn’t go with a full stack here. I’d stick with the lefties because Covey has been surprisingly effective against righties. I can’t see a spot where I would want to pitch Covey past a GPP dart throw. I don’t see how he gets through this matchup while putting up a good score for fantasy.
Brewers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Travis Shaw, Christian Yelich
Secondary Options – Jonathan Villar, Jesus Aguilar
Home Run Pick – Jose Abreu
DFS MLB – A’s at Royals
A’s Probable Starter – Daniel Gossett, RHP
6.05 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 13.1 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .304 average, .398 wOBA, 42.1 fly ball rate and 57.9 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .296 average, .368 wOBA, 34.0 fly ball rate and 40.9 hard contact rate
I really wish I had a little more faith in the Royals because this is a great spot for their offense. Gossett has been getting beat up from both sides of the plate and the big park in Kansas City likely won’t save him. The best hitter, Mike Moustakas, is too expensive for me. He’s only $200 less than Kris Bryant. I’ll find that extra money to get to Bryant somewhere in the rest of my lineup. Jorge Soler and Salvador Perez are more attractive to me since they are both significantly cheaper. I think a stack of the Royals offense would certainly come in low-owned, especially considering some of the other offenses on the slate and the lack of expensive pitchers. It’s probably not where I would go but I think this spot will see the best results if you stack it as opposed to trying to find the one bat.
Royals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Salvador Perez, Jorge Soler
Secondary Options – Mike Moustakas(price point keeps him out of elite), Whit Merrifield
Royals Probable Starter – Jakob Junis, RHP
3.61 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 22.1 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .239 average, .312 wOBA, 47.9 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .224 average, .304 wOBA, 36.3 fly ball rate and 34.6 hard contact rate
I’m completely off of Junis today. I absolutely think he’s rock solid pitcher but this isn’t the best matchup for him. Not only does Oakland have a good offense, they are also one of the best teams in the majors at hitting the slider. Seeing as how Junis throws it just about 40 percent of the time, that might not end well for him. The player that catches my eye is Matt Olson. Not only is on the better side of the splits, he’s ranked sixth against the slider this year. Dustin Fowler is a wonderful way to save some salary on this slate because he’s good against the fast ball and slider in his minimal sample size. Junis doesn’t have an incredible amount of strikeout stuff, which means it can be harder for him to recover from any mistakes as far as racking up points goes. Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Dustin Fowler hit 4 through 7 in yesterday’s order. That would be a really fun stack this afternoon if it happens.
A’s Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Matt Olson, Khris Davis, Dustin Fowler
Secondary Options – Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien
Home Run Pick – Matt Olson
DFS MLB – Pirates at Cardinals
Pirates Probable Starter – Nick Kingham, RHP
3.75 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 26.0 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .261 average, .312 wOBA, 32.4 fly ball rate and 29.7 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .178 average, .254 wOBA, 48.3 fly ball rate and 44.8 hard contact rate
KKingahm has acquitted himself pretty will since being recalled and is quietly in a solid matchup. The Crds have a lot of righty hitters that can do well but they are a little short with lefties outside of Matt Carpenter. The issue with him is he’s $4,100 and that’s too rich for my blood when you compare it to what you can spend on in that price range. I think I might take a shot at Kingham and hope the Bucco bullpen doesn’t squander this game away like they’ve done the first two out of three.
Cardinals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Matt Carpenter
Cardinals Probable Starter – Michael Wacha, RHP
2.71 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 20.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .191 average, .225 wOBA, 26.4 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .231 average, .313 wOBA, 28.9 fly ball rate and 44.1 hard contact rate
Wacha has been fantastic for real life and much better than anyone expected in fantasy. He’s made a quality start four times in a row and I’m not going to have too many Pirates, if at all today. About the only one I’d make an exception to is Austin Meadows. He’s desperately trying to force the Pirates’ hand in the outfield. About the only way he’s not putting up point is if he doesn’t get the start that day. He also came down to $3,300 which is a solid value. This game is mostly a huge fade for me other than the pitchers and a scattered hitter or two.
Pirates Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Austin Meadows
Secondary Options – Fransisco Cervelli, Starling Marte
Home Run Pick – Tommy Pham
LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 15: Jon Lester #34 of the Chicago Cubs reacts after the last out of the third inning during Game Two of the National League Championship Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on October 15, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
DFS MLB FanDuel Sample Lineup
More from FanSided
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
P – Jon Lester
C/1B – Matt Olson
2B – Jonathan Villar
3B – Kris Bryant
SS – Manny Machado
OF – Juan Soto, Dustin Fowler, Brett Gardner
Utility – Greg Bird
I’m going to reluctantly play Lester, even though I’m not totally happy with it. I do firmly believe that he represents the best value and safety for the pitching options. I just personally don’t enjoy playing him. Matt Olson’s numbers against the slider have me sold today and we’ll couple him with a cheap Dustin Fowler. Jonathan Villar is our last man in so we can fit two lefties from New York and two studs in Manny Machado and Kris Bryant. Everything came together nicely and it’s fairly balance.
The Core – Manny Machado, Juan Soto, Matt Olson
Stacks to Consider – Yankees and Orioles game stack, A’s(at Kansas City), Cubs(at New York Mets)
As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4lifeas MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.