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Where Dale Earnhardt Jr. can help NASCAR ratings the most

By Nick Tylwalk

WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 04: (L-R) Jeremy Roenick and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. are seen on the pre-game telecast prior to Game Four of the Stanley Cup Final between the Washington Capitals and Vegas Golden Knights during the 2018 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Capital One Arena on June 4, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/NHLI via Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 04: (L-R) Jeremy Roenick and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. are seen on the pre-game telecast prior to Game Four of the Stanley Cup Final between the Washington Capitals and Vegas Golden Knights during the 2018 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Capital One Arena on June 4, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/NHLI via Getty Images) /
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There doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of doubt that some NASCAR fans will tune in to hear Dale Earnhardt Jr. as part of the broadcast team, but where can he help NBC Sports the most?

When it comes to Dale Earnhardt Jr. and his impending debut as an announcer, we might have been asking the wrong question this whole time.

The obvious point of speculation is still a worthwhile one, and eloquently summed up by veteran journalist Dave Caldwell: Can Dale Earnhardt Jr. help keep NASCAR ratings from continuing their multi-year slide? No one knows until NBC Sports takes over from Fox in July, but there’s reason to be optimistic on that front. Put another way, if Junior can’t at least help stabilize TV viewership for the second half of the season, no one can.

NBC definitely has a tough task carrying the second part of the NASCAR Cup Series slate. The summer months are sometimes a grind, and the races down the stretch and into the playoffs compete directly with the NFL, a gargantuan hurdle that no one has quite figured out how to clear. Still, not every race that NBC or NBCSN carries is created equal, and some don’t need Dale Jr. quite as much as others.

Take Indianapolis, for instance.  The Brickyard 400 can sometimes be a snoozer in terms of on-track action, but the cachet of racing in Indy still carries some weight, as evidenced by the fact that over the last four years, the live audience has actually ticked up slightly, from 5.2 million viewers in 2014 to 5.6 million in 2017. The 2018 scheduling change might hurt it since the race is now during the NFL season, but it doesn’t stand out as one that needs an Earnhardt Jr. bump.

Even though Junior is closely associated with both tracks, neither the summer Daytona race nor the fall Talladega date need any help either, as both have held up well over the past four years, and their overall audiences seem to hinge more on whether they are shown on NBCSN or NBC (wisely, both are on NBC this year). However, there are plenty of other tracks that aren’t known for either their historical significance or excitement, and it’s there that Earnhardt might actually make a difference.

Let’s dig into four of them:

Chicagoland – July 1

It’s kind of a bummer that Dale Jr. is making his announcing debut here, simply because it would be so fitting that his booth premiere would come at Daytona. But this could turn into a blessing in disguise, because there are few more character deficient tracks and races than the annual stop in Joliet. Chicagoland has lost more than 1.4 million viewers over the past four season, a decline of nearly 40 percent, but because it’s Junior’s first day in his new office, it would not be shocking to see that trend reversed, at least for this year.

Kentucky – July 14

While its fall-off has not been as dramatic as Chicagoland, the annual Kentucky night race has also witnessed declining TV ratings for each of the last four seasons. It’s also not known for white-knuckle finishes, and it falls right smack dab in the middle of the summer, when many people are on vacation. This will be Earnhardt’s third race, and even if fans get tired of tuning in just for him later on, they likely won’t this early on, making this a good bet for a race that sees stable or even slightly improved numbers versus 2017.

Richmond – Sept. 22

Few races need their fortunes to change in the second half of the NASCAR season as badly as the Cup Series’ second trip to Richmond. In 2014, ABC had 4.9 million viewers for this race, while NBCSN managed just 2.1 million in 2017. Yuck. But there’s real hope for a Dale Jr. effect this fall, because not only is he calling the Cup Series race, he’s driving in the XFINITY Series race as well. Expect NASCAR and NBC Sports to pull out all the stops to promote that fact, which should help driver interest for the entire weekend.

Next: Is NASCAR planning further limits on Cup drivers in lower series races?

Homestead – Nov. 18

By the time the Cup Series finale rolls around, we’ll already have an idea about whether the Dale Earnhardt Jr. Experience is a real thing. If it is, there could be a real benefit for the sport’s championship race, which has fallen off dramatically from 7.6 million viewers in 2015 to 4.7 million last year. Clearly, the current crop of drivers and title-crowning format aren’t enough to do it for fans, but might Junior be able to stem the bleeding? We’ll find out for sure this fall.

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