Fantasy Football: Dynasty League Sleeper Targets For 2018: QB
By Rob Wilson
Fantasy Football Dynasty League Sleepers – QB
The NFL offseason can be one of the tougher parts of the year from a fantasy perspective, but thankfully fantasy football dynasty leagues rarely take a break and neither do we. I’ll be focusing on those of you undergoing startup drafts this summer and are looking for some later round talent to help mold your team when draft day comes around. Dynasty picks can make or break your league for the next few years at least, so it’s important to identify three vital attributes when evaluating a pick: age, value, and potential upside.
For the purpose of these countdowns, we will use the current ADP data from MFL. A ‘sleeper’ will be determined by a player that’s currently falling past the 48th pick, which would signify the end of the fourth round for a typical twelve team league. Although this can give us a glimpse into the current landscape of fantasy drafts, always keep in mind one of the ten commandments of fantasy football: thou shall know your league-mates. Every league can run differently, especially dynasty ones. If you know you have some buddies who will run up and grab a rookie right away, use that to your advantage. ADP can be a dangerous tool if you allow yourself to be a slave to it, so just use it as a guideline as opposed to a clearcut rule. Let’s take a look at the QB position and some guys that will give you great value later in drafts:
5. Mitchell Trubisky
Current ADP: Pick #117 (QB21)
Trubisky will begin his second season under an entirely new regime that has fantasy owners everywhere more than intrigued. Matt Nagy is a product of the Andy Reid coaching tree, and he arrived just in time with the additions of Trey Burton and Allen Robinson. The entire offense will be contingent upon Trubisky taking that second year leap, but he has all the tools around him to make it happen. The running game will be strong enough to keep defenses honest, and the scheme Nagy will implement should give Trubisky a chance to show that his raw talent can be honed in.
From a fantasy perspective, his ADP still doesn’t reflect his potential as a long-term option in a good offense, mostly because of what we saw last season. He’s certainly not a lock to be a QB1, but he’s only twenty-three and he has everything in front of him to truly shine. Pair him with someone like Drew Brees or Tom Brady, and you’ll have a good shot at a QB dynasty for the next 6-8 seasons.
Fantasy Football Dynasty League Sleepers – QB
4. Dak Prescott
Current ADP: Pick #101 (QB16)
If someone wants to stay away from Dak completely, I can’t sit here and say I blame them. The film wasn’t pretty, and there were times on the field when he looked like a lost puppy trying to find Dez Bryant at the humane society. Those things aside, if I were to offer super bowl tickets if you could tell me where Prescott was ranked to end the season, I can almost guarantee you I’d end up at that game by myself. Dak ended the year as the QB9. He’s finished both of his first two seasons in the top ten and he’s only twenty-four. Last year was ugly, but it shouldn’t be ignored that Dallas was without a pro bowl left tackle and an elite running back for a huge chunk of the year.
Dak is currently going off the board as a mid-tier QB2, and that’s the type of value that you shouldn’t ignore in a player that has a lot of growing to do. As crazy as it may seem, Dak might be one of the biggest dynasty steals available right now. Fantasy leagues are won by those who aren’t scared to pivot when a trend goes too far, and this is one of those times. If you can handle the smack talk from your league-mates when you snag him, you’ll benefit in the long run.
3. Andrew Luck
Current ADP: Pick #81 (QB11)
This is one of those rankings that comes with a very large asterisk. Luck hasn’t played a game since 2016, and so far the reports coming out of Indianapolis aren’t very promising. It’s a sad turn of events for someone who looked like the next big thing in the NFL, but that doesn’t mean it’s all over.
If he is available for this season, and that’s a huge “if”; then he’s a steal. Upside is king when it comes to fantasy football, and if you have a chance to snag the guy who finished as the QB1 and QB4 in consecutive full seasons at the back of the sixth round, you do it. Fans of both fantasy football and the game as a whole hope to see Luck back in action this year, as the league is lacking something without him. He still has plenty of years ahead of him if he can move past the injury.
Fantasy Football Dynasty League Sleepers – QB
2. Marcus Mariota
Current ADP: Pick #94 (QB14)
According to Pro Football Focus’ 2018 QB Annual, Mariota finished in the top-tier of QB’s when it came to plays that had a high risk of resulting in a turnover vs. plays that had an opportunity to result in big time gains, trailing only Alex Smith and Tom Brady. This compiled with his insane turnover ratio in 2016 tells you that Mariota isn’t the type of guy to turn the ball over on a consistent basis. In other words, some of the uglier games we saw last season weren’t the norm for his small sample size in the league. He does a good job of taking care of the football and can make plays happen outside the pocket. If he can increase his accuracy in the pocket (21st among active QB’s), then he has a real chance to be a star in this league.
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The Titans will have a new look offense in 2018 under the command of Matt Lafleur, someone who was a part of the incredible turnaround we saw from the Rams last season. If Lafleur can produce any of the same magic he brought to Jared Goff, then Mariota just might live up to the hype he had going into last season. The fantasy community has a habit of overreacting, and that’s evident in his current ADP. Mariota is only entering his third season, and he’s someone who could propel himself into the elite group of QB’s, and his rushing ability should give him a strong floor too. Those two ingredients make up a breakout candidate at a great value.
1. Jameis Winston
Current ADP: Pick #98 (QB15)
There’s not a lot of “no brainers” in fantasy football, but famous Jameis as the fifteenth QB off the board might just hit the mark. A lot of people are waiting to see Winston breakout without realizing he already did. His shoulder held him out of three games last season, but he was still able to accumulate over 3500 yards and 225 fantasy points. If you spread those out on a per-game basis, it would be good enough for the QB9 spot. This includes games he was pulled early, so the data expands even further. Winston has improved both seasons he’s been in the NFL, and anyone who watched the Bucs last season know he had plenty of near-miss TD’s down the field to both Desean Jackson and Mike Evans.
Winston is a steal in redraft, and an absolute robbery in dynasty. If he improves his accuracy even slightly and is able to connect on just a few of those missed opportunities, we’re staring at twenty-four year old top five fantasy QB with a workhorse rookie running back and an elite WR option in Mike Evans. Winston should be rostered by every single owner looking for an every week starter, and should be paid up for in dynasty. The fact he’s going this late in drafts is nothing short of astonishing, and if you have a chance to draft this early at his current ADP, click that ‘make selection’ button and sleep easy.
Next: Fantasy Fallout From the 2018 NFL Draft
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