Lonnie Walker IV has the potential to be something special

Lonnie Walker IV is a raw one-and-done prospect who was the best ranked recruit to ever play at Miami (FL). With just over a 6-foot-10 wingspan, he is incredibly malleable and may emerge as one of the best steals of the 2018 NBA Draft if placed in the proper situation. A high energy player with plus athleticism in every direction is what he brings to the table. And even though inconsistency followed him throughout the season — some of which was his fault — the pieces at Miami were not exactly complementary for his success.

Before any analysis, consider this: Jaylen Brown shot 29 percent from deep on over 100 attempts and 65 percent from the stripe in his lone season at Cal. This season Walker shot 35 percent from distance and 74 percent from the line. I am not saying Walker is better than Brown or even that he will be better. Walker has received criticism that his efficiency is not quite where it should be for someone whose shot isn’t broken. That sentiment may be true, but it’s not where Jaylen Brown was.

So, what about Walker’s shot even needs fixing? First and foremost, he needs consistency. Far too often he attempts a shot completely different than the one prior. While he dips the ball down below his waste, he successfully avoids cranking the shot and sets the ball far enough from his body in the recommended 90 degrees.

His footwork and balance lack consistency, inducing accuracy volatility. Walker entering the league projects as a spot shooter who can slowly build on each step of his game. In the clip above, he displays simple footwork that allows him to knock down a spot up 3-pointer. This is exactly where he will start at the next level.

He clearly crosses his feet sliding into the shot against UNC. This is the next progression he needs to work on.

The next shot Walker attempted in the game shows more consistent footwork, sliding his feet and stepping into the shot properly. He needs monitored repetition to build on his consistency and allow his shooting efficiency to increase and stabilize. He is able to shoot off the dribble but generally likes to put it in his left hand before going up with his shot.

As a slasher, Walker shows promise. His athleticism in every direction allows him to create space and explode into open realty waiting for a pass. He puts pressure on a defense with hard cuts and causes them to stay awake for the lethal backdoor cut.

Walker tends to palm dribble and fails to possess strong handles on the whole. Around the rim, ambidextrous potential is evident even if his finishing ability is not quite there. Opponents tend to block his lay-ups, especially with his left hand, somewhat frequently despite his length. Learning how to angle his body and sense when defenders are on his back starts an additional process to generate more offensive efficiency.

Walker has the tendency to dribble a possession out and chuck up a tough shot, which he made frequently enough to get away with at Miami. Above, he aimlessly dribbles, misses the roll man and fires an ill-advised 3-pointer. In the NBA, the reins will be tighter and he will not be allowed to do whatever he pleases, probably speeding up the process for his dribbling to become more efficient.

Walker has potential to continue to develop as a passer. The act of passing is not as much the issue as the vision required to make them. He never sees the defender on the pass from the play shown above. With the potential to be a secondary ball handler, he fails to see the roll man in pick-and-roll situations far too frequently. Occasionally it is from meaningless dribbling, but the majority of the time it is due to simply not seeing a wide open teammate.

Defensively, his length troubles passing lanes and ball handlers. Without elite lower body strength, larger opponents knock Walker off of his position sometimes. That being said, he generally is able to recover and prevent ghastly defensive possessions.

For example, Walker allows his man to drive middle but stays in front and ultimately strips the ball for a strong display of his lateral quickness and length. His quickness helps him navigate screens and offer good pick-and-roll defense.

A general lack of awareness sometimes hurts him on defense, such as the play above. He was beat on the pick-and-roll — which happens — but he should have switched it to prevent the wide open 3-pointer. He fails to even see the open man to rotate over when the ball is swung that direction, staying with his man the entire time. It was outside of their scheme but sometimes basketball plays with good basketball sense must be made.

Off the ball, Walker disrupts plays by effectively fighting over and through pin downs and flares and staying with his man. He rarely is blown by if he is paying attention and his length forces the offense to make more difficult shots.

Walker is not as assertive and forceful a player as Jaylen Brown was and it partially shows on the glass. It may develop and be part of his more submissive nature. At the moment, however, it is not present.

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Walker’s potential is just that — unpromised potential. If placed in the proper system, it would not be unexpected to see him flourish far beyond what he produced in college like Brown. That being said, each step is a process and there is still a long way to go before finding any sort of consistency in his game. An NBA system will constrain some of the freedom he had to break loose of the offense for the better next year and make some of the concerns, such as dribbling out possessions, less of a factor.

If so, Lonnie Walker IV may very well be the biggest steal in this year’s draft.