MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday June 6
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Tuesday’s MLB DFS slate was dominated by pitching as Max Scherzer put up a slate leading performance against the Rays with a dominant 13K outing while Andrew Heaney, on his birthday, pitching a complete game shutout against the Royals for all you DFS narrative lovers out there. Offensively it was a bit of a slog for many of the most popular teams which kept the cash line down for the majority of the night until the Braves went off for 14 runs against the Padres with Freddie Freeman as the top fantasy hitter on the night with 3 hits, a home run, 2 RBI and 3 runs scored.
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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Pitching:
For a slate without any true aces, I think it is interesting that this give game early slate does not have a single game total of 9 or higher which may actually help to spread out ownership a bit as there is no clear chalk spot to target.
At the top of the pricing spectrum we have Mike Foltynewicz ($22.4K) which at first glance may seem like a drastic overpay but this is a pitcher with a 28% K rate on the season who has double-digit K’s in two of his last four games and has given up 2 or fewer runs in all but one start this season. The advanced metrics do show some regression is coming as his xFIP and SIERA sit closer to 3.7 than his current 2.2 ERA and even though his swinging strike rate at 9% is nearly identical to his marks last year, his K rate has jumped nearly 8% which is a huge step forward.
Here is my issue – Folty has never, EVER, had a K rate over 24% at any level in his professional career so am I ready to pay a price tag for an elite K arm that I am not sure is actually that? The folks at Fangraphs did an amazing breakdown of Folty and his changes since last year which may support this change and added strikeout ability
"Foltynewicz has been able to make that change because, well, his fastball and his slider are simply much better pitches this year than they were just a year ago. He’s added about a mile an hour to his fastball — putting back to about where it was when he debuted with the Braves back in 2015, albeit with better command — and he’s subtracted about the same amount from his slider, bringing it down to around 85 mph, as opposed to the 86 or 87 it was sitting at for the past two years. The net effect has been around 2 mph of increased separation this year, without much change in either horizontal or vertical release points. The results have been, well, striking: via Fangraphs.com"
As of this writing I am a bit conflicted on how to treat Folty today becuase my gut says most people will look at this price and simply say that is too much and will not pay for a guy they do not consider to be an elite pitcher. However, I also think the simple fact hes pitching at Petco against the Padres could push him to be chalky – and that is kind of where the decision lies. If Folty is popular than I want out, but if he is going to be low-owned as people pivot down to the “names” of Carlos Carrasco and Dylan Bundy, then I actually think this becomes the spot to build around. Sure there is some regression coming but there is a change in mechanics and stuff here with Folty that is driving the increased K ability and rather than dismiss it as small sample size and an overpay as I did at first glance, look closer because there may be something to it and he has the upside to set the cash line on a slate loaded with low Vegas data.
Ryan Yarbrough ($11K) may not be the Rays starter today as bullpen arm Jonny Venters will get that designation but this is a Yarbrough “start” today for the Rays in their new school way of treating arms and he has been nothing short of nasty in this role. He now has three “starts” in this role coming out of the bullpen, going 5.2, 6.1 and 7 innings with a 27.6% K rate that has been shown with back to back outings of 8K’s or more. The match-up today against the Nationals is not one we normally want to pick on but with it being a day game after a night game we have the potential for a few key guys to sit and there is no other punt SP2 option in my opinion that has the K upside the Rays left-hander has.
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots – Early Slate:
The one thing that jumped out to me at first glance on this slate was how little respect Vegas had for the offenses here on the Early Slate and I suppose that is warranted as we have games in pitcher’s parks in San Diego and San Francisco, the Tampa Bay Rays and two teams in Citi Field (Mets/Orioles) who cannot seem to get a hit under any circumstance.
What that leaves you with in my mind is one obvious offense in the Cleveland Indians, an offense that has a ceiling that no other team on this slate can come close to, and for that very reason, I think you have to find ways to build them into your line-ups today. Now to be clear this is not an indictment of Chase Anderson, the opposing pitcher, in fact he has been quite solid this year but ultimately he is still a fly ball pitcher who gives up 33% hard contact and has minimal swing and miss ability. This becomes less about picking on the pitcher and more about playing the most talented hitters on the slate.
The top of the Indians line-up has five hitters with ISO’s of .200 or higher against RHP this season and this is a line-up that is simply cranking out hits up and down the line-up as every single batter in the projected starting line-up has a hard contact rate of 35% or higher over the last two weeks. If you dig a bit deeper, you have four hitters – Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso and Yan Gomes that have 40% or higher fly ball rates (meshing with Anderson’s fly ball metrics). Obviously you can start your builds with Ramirez, E5 and Francisco Lindor but every single one of them is going to cost you over $10K on FantasyDraft but there is some nice value potential at the bottom of this line-up with the return of Lonnie Chisenhall ($5.5K) to help you balance out any Indians stack you want to build.
My goal on this early slate is to max out my Indians exposure and then mix in one-off power bats with home run upside and the best spot for this in my mind is in New York as the Mets face Dylan Bundy. Bundy has impressive K ability but he is also a pitcher with a .200+ ISO to hitters from both sides of the plate with a 36% HC rate so I think you can pick and choose from the Mets power bats here as one-offs as the price point for guys like Jay Bruce ($6.3K) allow you to stack up the Indians and still pay up at SP.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
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SP: Mike Foltynewicz ($22.4K)
SP: Ryan Yarbrough ($11K)
IF: Francisco Lindo ($10.3K)
IF: Edwin Encarnacion ($10.1K)
IF: Yonder Alonso ($8.3K)
OF: Jose Ramirez ($10.9K)
OF: Michael Brantley ($9K)
OF: Lonnie Chisenhall ($5.5k)
UTIL: Jay Bruce ($6.4K)
UTIL: Chris Davis ($5.7K)
Slate Overview: My gut reaction on this slate after sorting through the options was to prioritize an Indians stacks first and foremost as the most talented line-up on the board and see if I could find a way to fit them in with the most expensive arm on the slate in Mike Foltynewicz. There is certainly a path to this build with a cheaper SP2 like Yarbrough and utilizing some of the more inexpensive bottom of the order Indians bats so once we have a line-up for Cleveland we can get a clearer picture of exactly how we want this build to come together. Remember this is a day game after a night game slate so we may get some watered down line-ups and value plays that open up totally different builds from what you may see at first glance.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Pitching:
The Main Slate is stacked with elite pitching and although I respect Aaron Nola and Lance McCullers, I am happy to pivot down to Shohei Ohtani ($19.7K) as my SP1 on this slate. Ohtani is a slate leading -260 home favorite against the Royals, with a 31% K rate on the season that is the top mark among all pitchers going tonight and will take on a KC team with by far the lowest total on the board (2.7). So to recap – we have the largest favorite against a team with the lowest total who also happens to be the best K arm on the slate – where do I sign?
After a 10 day break between starts last time out, Ohtani is now back into his regular routine and I think that is a really important aspect of targeting him today. Ohtani walked 3 batters in only 5 innings his last start out (14.3% BB rate) which was the highest walk rate he had in four starts and I firmly believe that lack of control was due to the lay-off in between starts. Now tonight back on regular rest and pitching at home where he has an absurd 37% K rate, I am all in on Ohtani in this spot and I think the price point is simply too cheap relative to his upside every time he takes the mound.
Jon Gray ($14.8K) outside of Coors Field is going to be in play every time for me and although the ballpark in Cincinnati is still a great hitters park, the price point on Gray is reflecting his home ballpark and not the K upside he has when you take him out of there. Gray has a strong 26% K rate with a near 50% GB rate and an elite 13% swinging strike rate which are metrics you just don’t normally see for guys priced this low.
If you think about what people tout about Lance McCullers as an example – it is his GB rate and K rate upside and this season comparatively, McCullers has a 54% GB rate with a 25% K rate – nearly identical numbers to Gray (even his 12.6% swinging strike rate), yet he is priced $6K higher against the hottest team in baseball right now (Mariners) – so why not take the discount on Gray and use those savings to pay up for bats?
MLB DFS – Main Slate Hitting:
With Ian Kennedy on the mound, surrendering a .360+ wOBA to hitters from both sides of the plate with a .200+ ISO, the Angels bats are going to be a popular option on this slate and the fact they have a 5.3 run total in their massive ballpark tells you everything you need to know about what Vegas thinks about Kennedy tonight. Mike Trout ($11.4K) is pricey but you can easily balance that out with guys like Justin Upton ($8.1K) and Luis Valbuena ($6.3K) in a nice 2-3-4 mini-stack here tonight. Over the last two seasons, all three of these bats have .210+ ISO marks versus RHP with roughly 40% HC rates and with Kennedy on the hill, this is going to be a core three-man stack in all formats for me tonight.
The Rangers and A’s game will likely be a popular target with 90+ degree temperatures, a slate high 10 run total and Bartolo Colon and Daniel Mengden on the mound. The Rangers will likely be the less popular side of this stack but it is worth noting that all of Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara and Adrian Beltre have 40%+ HC rates over the last two weeks. Conversely on the A’s side of this game, Khris Davis and Matt Olson are both sporting 58% plus HC rates during that time period so you have a core group of bats all squaring the ball up with authority in hot weather against Colon and Mengden – oh boy.
Mengden has a solid 2.91 ERA in the season but regression is coming as he has a 4 xFIP/SIERA and his 39% HC rate to LHB could spell big time trouble when facing someone like Joey Gallo here today. With Beltre back in the line-up this Rangers team is much easier to stack with and they make for a nice mini-stack with the Angels/A’s as they have multiple players at flexible positions that help you fill out a high upside DFS MLB roster.
I love Bartolo Colon ans hate stacking against him because he’s just so damn lovable but the metrics tell me to forget the man crush on Big Sexy and go all-in against a guy with a .289 ISO and 40% plus hard contact rate against RHB this season which puts Khirs Davis and Matt Chapman firmly on the right side of the splits here. Matt Olson will likely be batting right in between these two making this a great 4-5-6 stack in the heart of the Oakland line-up, building around three hitters with .220+ ISO’s against RHP over the last two seasons.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
More from FanSided
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
SP: Shohei Ohtani ($19.7K)
SP: Jon Gray ($14.8K)
IF: Joey Gallo ($7.3K)
IF: Adrian Beltre ($7.2K)
IF: Luis Valbuena ($6.3K)
OF: Mike Trout ($11.4K)
OF: Justin Upston ($8.1K)
OF: Matt Olson ($8.4K)
UTIL: Khris Davis ($9.5K)
UTIL: Matt Chapman ($7.3K)
Slate Overview: This Main Slate is a juicy one as we have a ton of elite arms and some gas can arms which give us multiple stacking paths but in my mind the Angels/A’s and Rangers stand out as the best bats and they correlate quite well in terms of position eligibility. The fact that I can stack up three of the best offenses and still get two of the best K arms on the slate makes this a build that is safe for cash games and has real GPP appeal. Enjoy these slates all!
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!