DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Thursday, June 7

Welcome into the Thursday edition of the DFS MLB game by game breakdown! We have a split slate on hand but we’ve got you covered no matter what you play!

Last night was another relatively early night for me as my offense just neglected to show up. You can’t spend the money on Mike Trout and Charlie Blackmon only to get three measly points between the two of them and expect to win. The real bummer was I correctly avoided the chalk of Shohei Ohtani as he left the game with an injury(get better soon) and didn’t play Brian Dozier or Miguel Sano. That’s just how baseball goes some nights. Even when you get some calls right, it still doesn’t go into your favor. This mini three game losing streak is why bankroll management is important. Let’s get into this split slate as I will have some action on both!

DFS MLB – Rockies at Reds

Rockies Probable Starter – Tyler Anderson, LHP

5.07 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 20.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .289 average, .399 wOBA, 37.5 fly ball rate and 27.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .249 average, .338 wOBA, 43.4 fly ball rate and 33.8 hard contact rate

This game might have some serious fireworks. Neither pitcher has been able to keep the ball in the yard to this point in the year as both pitchers have combined to give up 24 homers. If you’re playing the four game early slate, Eugenio Suarez is almost a must play. He’s destroyed lefty pitching to the tune of a .524 wOBA this season and he gets a home run prone pitcher in Cincinnati. On FanDuel, $3,700 is practically stealing. Don’t sleep on Scooter Gennett either. He’s hitting lefties extremely well and many players don’t like the lefty on lefty matchup. Since it’s just a four game slate, this is the most attractive offensive game and the key might be how many pieces you can get from here to match with the pitcher of your choice.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eugenio Suarez, Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler, Adam Duvall

Secondary Options – Joey Votto, Curt Casali if Tucker Barnhart doesn’t play

Reds Probable Starter – Tyler Mahle, RHP

4.38 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 22.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .268 average, .393 wOBA, 40.0 fly ball rate and 45.6 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .262 average, .298 wOBA, 32.6 fly ball rate and 35.7 hard contact rate

Another day, another game where we have to talk about the Rockies lefties. He’s coughed up nine home runs to lefties already and it should be more by the end of this one. Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez may have been a let down last night but you have to be looking to go right back to the well today. Blackmon especially is too good of a hitter to be quiet for long. Ian Desmond went yard last night and is a risk/reward option. He’s been roundly awful so far this season but the matchup is juicy. Nolan Arenado can take anyone deep but I generally don’t pay top dollar for him unless he’s facing a lefty. Today could be the day to make an exception.

Rockies hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado

Secondary Options – Ian Desmond

Home Run Pick – Eugenio Suarez

DFS MLB Early – Dodgers at Pirates

Dodgers Probable Starter – Dennis Santana, RHP

*First Career Start*

This won’t be the first time Santana has taken the ball on a major league mound as he pitched in Colorado last week. That did not go well at all. He gave up five runs in 3.2 innings and he draws a somewhat difficult matchup in Pittsburgh. The Pirates don’t strikeout very much and they have hitters that can hurt him. I would mostly stick with the best hitters from the Bucs. We don’t know what to really expect from Santana since he has no track record to speak of. I’m looking towards Austin Meadows, Josh Harrison and Colin Moran first and foremost. We’re getting lucky on FanDuel because the entire squad is just too cheap. They couldn’t have gotten the bump in price after their explosion last night and players should take advantage of that to fit in the Reds/Rockies matchup and the stud pitcher that we’ll get to in a minute.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Austin Meadows, Josh Harrison, Colin Moran

Secondary Options – Francisco Cervelli(if active), Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco

Pirates Probable Starter – Jameson Taillon, RHP

3.97 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 22.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .268 average, .341 wOBA, 29.1 fly ball rate and 33.7 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .203 average, .230 wOBA, 29.7 fly ball rate and 23.8 hard contact rate

Taillon looked awesome in his last start in St. Louis en route to a 50 point performance but this is not a great spot for him today. The Dodgers went nuts offensively as well last night and Taillon is worse against lefties. That’s not a good mix against a team that can throw some good lefties out there. Cody Bellinger has hit a home run two days in a row and might be coming out of his lengthy slump. Hitters like Max Muncy, Joc Pederson and Yasmani Grandal fit against Taillon’s weakness well. Matt Kemp is having a heck of a season and is firmly in play. Taillon’s one solid start doesn’t have me convinced enough to play him.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, Yasmani Grandal(if he plays), Cody Bellinger(GPP only)

Secondary Options – Matt Kemp, Chris Taylor

Home Run Pick – Austin Meadows

SAN DIEGO, CA – AUGUST 1: Jose Berrios #17 of the Minnesota Twins pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on August 1, 2017 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)

DFS MLB Early – White Sox at Twins

White Sox Probable Starter – James Shields, RHP

4.48 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 16.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .169 average, .255 wOBA, 38.0 fly ball rate and 24.8 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .276 average, .330 wOBA, 44.3 fly ball rate ad 35.8 hard contact rate

I full expect this to blow up in my face today but here it goes – the past few times Shields has started, players have stacked up against him and not had good results. He’s hit the quality start mark in six of his last seven starts and has only had a “gas can” start once lately. The book last year was lefties against Shields but this year has been completely different. It’s not that you can’t roster some hitters against Shields but a stack is likelier to fail you than the perception is. I’d lean towards the power righties in this spot with Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano. Other than that, I think I’d prefer pieces from the other two games more.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options -Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano

Secondary Options – Eddie Rosario

Twins Probable Starter – Jose Berrios, RHP

3.86 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 25.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .200 average, .261 wOBA, 37.4 fly ball rate and 29.4 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .211 average, .275 wOBA, 40.6 fly ball rate and 29.7 hard contact rate

Especially if you’re playing cash games, Berrios is the guy you have to play. He’s exceeded 30 points in four straight starts and there’s no other pitcher that matches his potential upside today. The floor is generally lower with Berrios than I like in a pitcher that is so expensive but there’s not another choice. The White Sox are a slightly above average offense against righty pitching but they strikeout at a 23.4 percent clip. The metrics suggest that Berrios is a fantastic pitcher and I won’t be rostering White Sox hitters today. In addition, Berrios has absolutely owned the Twins in his career that spans 93 at-bats.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu

Home Run Pick – Brian Dozier

DFS MLB Early – Marlins at Cardinals

Marlins Probable Starter – Elieser Hernandez, RHP

4.29 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 11.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .300 average, .411 wOBA, 45.2 fly ball rate and 46.5 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .303 average, .323 wOBA, 48.3 fly ball rate and 36.7 hard contact rate

There’s not a ton of redeeming factors in any metrics for Hernandez and even though I typically target Cardinals hitters against lefties, it’s hard to deny the spot they’re in today. He’s getting crushed by both side of the plate and I don’t think we need to be picky about how we attack him. I think my favorite might be Jose Martinez but some other options include Tommy Pham, Matt Carpenter, Harrison Bader and Marcell Ozuna. I’d probably lean towards hitters from the Pirates offense because they are cheaper and in potentially an even better spot. Still, the top of the Cardinals lineup is especially attractive.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham, Jose Martinez

Secondary Options – Yadier Molina, Harrison Bader

Cardinals Probable Starter – Miles Mikolas, RHP 

2.49 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 18.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .275 average, .306 wOBA, 30.5 fly ball rate and 37.7 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .179 average, .215 wOBA, 19.6 fly ball rate and 30.1 hard contact rate

This spot is fairly short and sweet for me because I’m not rostering any Marlins hitters with possibly one exception. Mikolas has been awesome so far in 2018 but he doesn’t have the strikeout rate that Berrios does. Considering they’re relatively close in price, it’s no contest to pitch someone with the upside that Berrios has. Plus, I’ve had exactly zero luck targeting pitchers against the Miami offense in 2018 and I’m pretty much over the Marlins ruining my night all the time. The one Marlins player I might throw a dart at is Justin Bour. With his power, he could run into a ball and is on the right side of the splits to do it.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Justin Bour

Home Run Pick – Jose Martinez

DFS MLB Main – Orioles at Blue Jays

Orioles Probable Starter – David Hess, RHP 

3.47 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 12.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .300 average, .381 wOBA, 51.5 fly ball rate and 30.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .204 average, .274 wOBA, 47.7 fly ball rate and 34.1 hard contact rate

There’s some pretty distinct splits starting to develop with Hess and it’s definitely about finding the lefty hitters to play. The two that I really want are in two different spectrums salary wise. One is Justin Smoak, who’s fairly priced. The second that you could head towards is Curtis Granderson. He’s super cheap because he hasn’t been very good this season. I would also still side with the crafty veteran in this matchup with Hess, who doesn’t strike out anyone and is giving up a ton of fly balls. I can’t really think of any reason to play Hess tonight.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Justin Smoak, Curtis Granderson

Secondary Options – Yangervis Solarte, Kevin Pillar

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Jaime Garcia, LHP

6.08 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and 20.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .240 average, .361 wOBA, 50.0 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .305 average, .391 wOBA, 39.6 fly ball rate and 41.1 hard contact rate

I played the combo of Danny Valencia and Manny Machado the other night against a poor lefty and that didn’t work out. A short memory is a good attribute in DFS because I’m really thinking about playing the exact same combo again this evening. If we roster the big gun pitcher that’s lurking, we’re going to need some savings somewhere and Valencia is exactly that. Garcia isn’t a good pitcher at all at this stage of his career and he’s going to face a bunch of righties tonight in the Baltimore lineup. Any of the combo of Trey Mancini, Mark Trumbo and Adam Jones are fine. Once you get past Machado and Valencia, the other plays are better served as a stack.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Manny Machado, Danny Valencia

Secondary Options – Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Trey Mancini

Home Run Pick – Curtis Granderson

DFS MLB Main – Tigers at Red Sox

Tigers Probable Starter – Matthew Boyd, LHP

3.23 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 18.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .146 average, .194 wOBA, 50.0 fly ball rate and 41.7 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .217 average, .288 wOBA, 48.6 fly ball rate and 31.1 hard contact rate

The fly ball rates that Boyd is sporting says regression should be on the way and it could come quickly tonight against the Red Sox lineup. If you read this yesterday, I made a case for Blaine Hardy since the Sox haven’t hit lefties well but that ended very poorly. The Red Sox lineup is just too good to continue to be poor against lefties. J.D. Martinez is one of the players dragging the team down with his stats but he’s been one of the best hitters against lefties in baseball in the past. I’d want to play Xander Bogaerts in a vacuum. However, Machado is $100 more on FanDuel. That’s a lean for Machado and it’s not very close.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Options – Brock Holt, Eduardo Nunez, Mitch Moreland

Red Sox Probable Starter – Jalen Beeks, LHP

Major League Debut

The Sox are calling up Beeks to make his debut and give the rotation a bit of a breather. What we know about Beeks is he’s been very solid in AAA this year. His strikeout rate and ERA are good but here’s the catch. The fly ball rate is over 40 percent and the Tigers smash lefties in a major way. Players will likely be off them after last night but Eduardo Rodriguez is a quality pitcher. We have no idea what we’ll get from Beeks but I’m ready to attack it. The two I’m most interested in are Nicholas Castellanos and James McCann. One is expensive and one is super cheap so it’s a solid combo. If you don’t like the shortstop options, you could drop back and punt with Jose Iglesias and his .379 wOBA. Some of the cheaper Detroit hitters really help with salary tonight.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – James McCann, Nicholas Castellanos

Secondary Options – John Hicks, Jose Iglesias

Home Run Pick – Nicholas Castellanos

DFS MLB Main – Mariners at Rays

Mariners Probable Starter – Mike Leake, RHP

4.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 15.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .267 average, .315 wOBA, 31.5 fly ball rate and 37.8 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .279 average, .359 wOBA, 31.5 fly ball rate and 40.2 hard contact rate

I typically don’t target many Rays hitters unless they’re in an amazing spot and I don’t think this is it. Leake enters this game in very good form, netting a quality start in four of his past five starts. I wouldn’t make an effort to play Leake especially with an ace on the mound tonight. Leake could be perfectly fine in real life and still put up a weak fantasy score because he doesn’t strike hitters out. Tampa also has a below average strikeout rate so he may not have a lot of opportunity to rack up the K’s. Even on a small slate, I have little to no interest in this game. Watching Leake generate ground balls isn’t that exciting for fantasy.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Wilson Ramos, C.J. Cron

Rays Probable Starter – Ryne Stanek

I’m not going to worry about the splits for Stanek because he’s the “opener” for the Rays tonight. It appears to be Austin Pruitt on deck to take over after a few hitters. This isn’t the spot to use this strategy, but players need to get attuned to the idea of pitching the Rays pitcher on the bullpen days. I’m not talking about whoever starts, I’m talking about who will come in and throw the bulk of the innings. If you can get a Pruitt or Ryan Yarbrough at near minimum price, it’s well worth the savings to forego your shot at the quality start bonus. Pruitt is worse against lefties and that would be all I’m really chasing tonight. Dee Gordon and Denard Span are nice prices and have upside outside of home runs. It’s also a #RevengeGame for Span so we have that narrative in play tonight.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Dee Gordon, Denard Span

Secondary Options – Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura

Home Run Pick – Nelson Cruz

DFS MLB Main – Astros at Rangers

Astros Probable Starter – Gerrit Cole, RHP 

2.20 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 38.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .180 average, .248 wOBA, 47.2 fly ball rate and 30.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .162 average, .234 wOBA, 45.6 fly ball rate and 34.8 hard contact rate

We haven’t really seen a ceiling game from Cole in his last four starts but he’s also drawn Boston, Cleveland and the Angels in three of those games. Tonight’s matchup against the Rangers is the third time that Cole has seen them so far. The first two encounters have resulted in 14 innings pitched, 25 strikeouts, two quality starts and three earned runs given up. That’s particularly dominant and the Rangers are still striking out at an immense clip this season. In daily fantasy, strikeouts are king. That’s why I was off Shohei Ohtani last night. Even if Cole gives up a couple runs, the strikeouts should be there. He’s locked in for me tonight.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Rangers Probable Starter –Cole Hamels, LHP 

3.63 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 23.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .277 average, .330 wOBA, 30.6 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .215. average, .315 wOBA, 37.0 fly ball rate and 46.7 hard contact rate

There’s a lot of metrics that look good for Hamels but he’s had trouble with the long ball this season. He’s given up 14 homers to righties(15 total), and the 15 is almost the most in baseball. Multiple pitchers are at 16 as of this writing but that’s not something to be proud of for Hamels. George Springer and Evan Gattis both have multiple home runs off of Hamels and I want the players that have the highest chance of hitting the ball a long way. Buyer beware for Carlos Correa tonight. He’s 2-for-21 against Hamels with seven strikeouts.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Evan Gattis, Max Stassi, George Springer

Secondary Options – Jose Altuve

Home Run Pick – Evan Gattis

OAKLAND, CA – JULY 15: Khris Davis #2 of the Oakland Athletics celebrates after hittting a walk off two run home run during the ninth inning against the Cleveland Indians at the Oakland Coliseum on July 15, 2017 in Oakland, California. The Oakland Athletics defeated the Cleveland Indians 5-3. (Photo by Jason O. Watson/Getty Images)

DFS MLB Main – Royals at A’s

Royals Probable Starter – Jason Hammel, RHP

5.17 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 14.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .246 average, .323 wOBA, 49.1 fly ball rate and 46.8 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .312 average, .347 wOBA, 30.4 fly ball rate and 41.9 hard contact rate

Hammel has actually been pretty effective his last thee starts but it’s tough to trust him on the road against a solid offense. The A’s don’t hit for the higher average but they can hit the ball a long way. Hammel is reverse splits and the hitter that stands out is Khris Davis because he’s reverse splits as well. Even at a higher price tag, he’s got to be on the radar and would be a good pivot from Nicholas Castellanos. Matt Chapman and Dustin Fowler are rock solid options. If you want the lefties it has to be Matt Olson and Jed Lowrie. Olson especially can hit homers with the best of them and Hammel is giving up a lot of fly balls and hard contact to a power style lefty. I don’t trust Hammel to continue being any good.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Khris Davis, Dustin Fowler, Matt Olson

Secondary Options – Jed Lowrie, Matt Chapman

A’s Probable Starter – Frankie Montas, RHP

0.64 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 17.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .100 average, .119 wOBA, 45.8 fly ball rate and 24.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .368 average, .393 wOBA, 20.0 fly ball rate and 60.0 hard contact rate

Maybe I’m missing the boat on this one but I likely won’t be heavy on Royals tonight. That doesn’t mean I’m scared of Montas because I’m not. The sample size is too small to put a ton of weight into. You could dart how him if you want to but he’s got a low strikeout rate and is going up against a tough team to strikeout. If it turns out that Montas is for real, the Royals offense could struggle. The only reason I’d want to use Kansas City hitters is if you stack them up in the hopes of a Montas implosion.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Whit Merrifield, Mike Moustakas

Secondary Options -Jorger Soler, Salvador Perez

Home Run Pick – Khris Davis

DFS MLB FanDuel Sample Lineup Early Slate  

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P – Jose Berrios 

C/1B – Jose Martinez

2B – Josh Harrison

3B – Eugenio Suarez

SS – Jose Peraza

OF – Austin Meadows, Joc Pederson, Harrison Bader

Utility – Charlie Blackmon

After we lock in the best pitcher on the small slate, we can move to building the offense. Shortstop is pretty slim pickings so I’m just hoping for some base hits and some runs with Peraza. Maybe we luck into a stolen base as well. From there, a couple of cheaper Pirates fit in nicely. Eugenio Suarez is locked in without much thought. I’ll take a couple of Cardinals with Jose Martinez and Harrison Bader. The last bat in is Charlie Blackmon because I just don’t think he’ll ghost us again.

The Core(Early) – Jose Berrios, Eugenio Suarez, Austin Meadows

Stacks to Consider – Rockies and Reds game stack, Pirates and Dodgers game stack

DFS MLB FanDuel Sample Lineup Main Slate 

P – Gerrit Cole 

C/1B – James McCann 

2B – Jonathan Schoop

3B – Danny Valencia

SS – Jose Iglesias

OF – Nicholas Castellanos, Khris Davis, Dustin Fowler

Utility – Evan Gattis

Cole isn’t even a question to me tonight. I would be more surprised if he doesn’t end up with double digit strikeouts than if he does and he will almost certainly be cash game chalk. We’ll need to get creative to find some nice bats to go with him and a key offense to get it done is the Detroit Tigers. I’m not thrilled with Schoop in a lineup but that’s just how bad Jaime Garcia is. I’m much happier with Danny Valencia in there. I think Castellans is as good a bet as anyone to go deep tonight. We’ll follow that up with a double dose of A’s and then take a chance on Gattis, who is hitting a lot better lately.

The Core(Main) – Gerrit Cole, Danny Valencia, Nicholas Castellanos

Stacks to Consider(Main) – Orioles(at Toronto), A’s(vs Kansas City) and Tiger or Red Sox

Next: DraftKings MLB Picks

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.