MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday June 7
Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Wednesday’s MLB DFS action was a tale of two slates for me as the early slate was a complete and utter disaster which was made up by a really solid main slate. On the early slate the Indians stack barely made a peep offensively while Ryan Yarbrough scored just about 3 points more than I did pitching yesterday (fun fact, I got 0 points because I actually did not pitch yesterday). Thankfully the Main Slate made up for it as homeruns from core plays in the Angels/Rangers/A’s stacks – Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler, Joey Gallo and Khris Davis were more than enough to push us over the cash line on this night and erase the bad taste in our mouth from the day slate.
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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Pitching Overview:
Another day and another split slate as we have five early games on this MLB DFS slate to sort through with some solid but not spectacular pitching options and some potential high scoring offensive spots we can stack up so let’s jump in.
Jose Berrios ($20.5K) is one of my favorite pitchers for DFS as he has electric strikeout ability and one of the most consistent splits that make it easy to identify how to deploy him in our rosters. If Berrios is at home you play him, if he is on the road you simply do not – it is really that clear – and today Berrios is at home against the White Sox as a slate leading -210 home favorite.
This season Berrios has an ERA a full run lower than on the road while his K rate is pushing over 30% versus a paltry 19% away from Minnesota and this is a trend that we saw unfold last season as well. In 2017, his ERA of 2.41 was half of what it was on the road (5+) and his K rate of 26% was materially higher than his 20% rate on the road. This is not a statistical small sample size either here – this is two seasons of data with 100+ IP on the road and at home so this has become something as DFS players we can really hang out hats on.
Berrios has racked up between 7-10 K’s in each of his last four starts and those willing to scroll back in the game log a bit will see a home start in April against this very same White Sox team where he struck out 11 batters over 7 shutout innings. Berrios is a lock for me on one pitcher sites and is my SP1 in cash and GPP’s – even if he becomes the chalk (and honestly he should unless people play Miles Mikolas against the Marlins), I have no issue finding other ways to differentiate.
Tyler Chatwood ($13K) is not a pitcher I recommend often in DFS as usually pitchers with 18% K rates and 20% walk rates are not ones I am willing to roster, let alone pay $13K for, put this spot today at home against the Phillies is less about Chatwood and more about the Philadelphia offense. Over the last week, the Phillies have a league leading 30% K rate and every single arm that has gone against them has put up at least 5 K’s including Jose Quintana who struck out 10 Phillies last night.
The issue for Chatwood has been walks, in a big time way, as he has walked 4, 5 and 6 batters in his last three starts so even with the K potential here this is some serious control risk with the Cubs right-hander. In addition to the K upside, Chatwood is also an elite ground ball pitcher, with a slate leading 56% rate this season, so there are routes that Chatwood can escape even when he gets runners on base but frankly baserunners and double play balls aren’t overly enticing for DFS purposes.
The decision to side with Chatwood as an SP2 is really based on the Phillies high strikeout rate right now and it is just that simple. I think when you look at this slate, outside of Berrios there is just not a ton of K upside available and that is shown perfectly in the fact that most expensive arm on the slate in Miles Mikolas has a 19% K rate on the season – so finding spots for K upside with your SP2 is going to be a risky proposition.
If you need a pure punt, there is some merit to rolling out Dennis Santana ($9.6K) against the Pirates as Santana is an arm that has flashed 30% plus K rates in the minor leagues prior to his call-up to the Dodgers big league club. Santana got BABIP’d to death (.500) in his first start in Coors Field but the 14% swinging strike rate is what I would focus on here if you want a reason to roll him our versus the Pirates. Santana in many ways is the complete opposite of Chatwood in that he gets a low K opponent in the Pirates but he has the pure strikeout ability and strong control to limit walks where you are playing Chatwood completely on the match-up and throwing his walk troubles to the wind.
Pitching is simple at the top with Berrios but your SP2 decision is going to come down to some risk tolerance and how much salary you need to save to allocate elsewhere in your rosters today.
MLB DFS – Early Slate Hitting:
Normally I look at a slate and I can pick out 1-2 stacks I want to build around but on this early slate, there are so many good spots for offense that it becomes tough to narrow it down (also probably why it is tough to find an SP2 you like). The chalk stack here today is going to be the Twins against James Shields and this is where I will let the Vegas total people go chasing and I will look basically everywhere else for offense as Shields is simply NOT a bad pitcher this season – stacking against him as been a losing proposition all year and yet on a small slate people are still going to flock here.
The Twins will likely put out a lefty heavy line-up here today and that is just fine with Shields who is sporting a .082 ISO and 27% HC rate against LHB this season. The high Vegas total is going to draw people here and I think this is where you fade and differentiate from the field as there are simply too many good offensive spots to eat the chalk against a pitcher who is not as bad as people will make you believe.
The Reds and Rockies have the best hitting environment on this slate in Great American Ballpark and I think this is where you start your builds from an offensive perspective. LHP Tyler Anderson has a .235 ISO and .329 wOBA against RHB this season and will face off with Eugenio Suarez and Adam Duvall who have elite numbers against LHP as they each sport a .300+ ISO with a 56% plus hard contact rate and make for the preferred way to get exposure to this match-up. One name that will likely not stick out at first blush is Scooter Gennett but his .254 ISO against LHP matches up well with Anderson who is giving up a .217 ISO versus LHB this season.
On the Rockies side against Tyler Mahle, I would focus solely on the left-handed batters here as over the last two seasons, LHB have a massive .266 ISO and 39% HC rate against Mahle which puts Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez firmly in play today.
The Cardinals have the second highest implied total on the slate at just over 5 runs against RHP Trevor Richards and as he typically does – Matt Carpenter stands out as one of the best one-off plays on the entire slate. Carpenter is red-hot over the last two weeks, leading the team in hits, HR’s and sporting a 55% HC rate and at only $7.2K on FantasyDraft is going to be one of the best cash game plays on the day. If you need a pivot in the same price range, Cody Bellinger has homered in back to back games and will face off with Jameson Taillon who is giving up a .332 wOBA and 33% HC rate to LHB this season.
The one team that may get over-looked today at first glance is the Cubs against Nick Pivetta which may end up being a spot where we can pivot from the field. Now Pivetta has been quite good this year but this is still a pitcher who gives up a .232 ISO to RHB the last two seasons with a 38% HC rate so you can roll out Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and even Anthony Rizzo in a three-man stack that may get over-looked with so much focus (I expect) on the Twins, Cardinals and Rockies/Reds match-up.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
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SP: Jose Berrios ($20.5K)
SP: Dennis Santana ($9.6K)
IF: Eugenio Suarez ($9.7K)
IF: Joey Votto ($8.6K)
IF: Matt Carpenter ($7.2K)
OF: Charlie Blackmon ($10K)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez ($8.2K)
OF: Adam Duvall ($7.3K)
UTIL: Anthony Rizzo ($9.3K)
UTIL: Kris Bryant ($9.2K)
Slate Overview: On a short slate like this I think there is going to be good chalk and bad chalk, with logical pivots in some cases and merit to simply eating the chalk in others. Jose Berrios in my mind is the good kind of chalk with no realistic pivots that have even close to his upside and I am fine differentiating with my offenses as I would argue there are 4-5 teams on the board today you can stack up including the Rockies, Reds, Cubs, Cardinlas and the Twins. With that in mind, I think I may not even stack because there are SO many good spots and will likely look to play 1-2 guys from each team and spread out my roster with the best batters in each game environment.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Pitching:
Just. Play. Gerrit Cole.
That’s it. Now on to hitters.
In all seriousness, there is no reason to get cute and even though Cole is priced at $27.6K, I think you need to make him the priority play as his 38% K rate on the season is so far and away the best on this slate that the opportunity cost in fading him is just something I would not recommend.
You can look at his recent string of “pedestrian” starts where he has struck out “only” 7-8 batters per game and gotten to 20-25 point fantasy points and make the case for the fade but there is no pivot play to even go to. You want to pivot to Cole Hamels, Mike Leake or Jaime Garcia? Those are the actual next three best/priciest option so to say the opportunity cost in fading Cole is high would be an understatement. The Astros right-hander faced this strikeout heavy Texas team twice earlier in the year and punched out 25 batters in only 14 innings putting up 36.75 FantasyDraft points in each start and that is the kind of upside he has that if you fade it and he goes off, you are dead in the water.
Finding an SP2 on this slate is not easy but as I usually do in this situations, I dig for K upside and Jalen Beeks ($10.9K) is exactly the kind of guy I look for as he has put up a massive 35% K rate in AAA this season prior to his call-up for this start against the Tigers. In 10 games in AA this year for Boston, Beeks has struck out 80 batters in 56 innings while only walking 14 for a tidy 6% BB rate when compared with his lofy K metrics. Digging deeper into Beeks scouting profiles, this is not an overpowering arm with “can’t miss” K stuff but in the context of this slate he possesses the tools to provide ample value at his price point. Beeks is the largest favorite on the board today pitching at home against the Tigers which really has more to do with the respect fo the Red Sox offense than anything else but by rostering the left-hander you are taking a shot on K upside to pair with Cole while still leaving yourself with $7.7K per batter on FantasyDraft.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Hitting:
One of the tricky parts of the hitting on the Main Slate is that we have a handful of elite bats we want but the challenge is can you afford them AND Gerrit Cole when build your roster. Matthew Boyd is a pitcher I respect but any time I have a left-handed pitcher in Fenway, I am going to find a way to roster J.D. Martinez ($10.8K) who has a .392 ISO against LHP over the last two seasons. The challenge with getting JD and Cole in the same build is price which is where Sam Travis ($5.6K) comes in as a punt IF who will likely get the DH start again today against the left-handed pitcher.
The Royals have the lowest projected run total on the board and Vegas actually has them projected to score .5 run lower than their season average which is a but puzzling to me considering they will take on a pitcher in Paul Blackburn who has yet to pitch in 2018 due to injury and will only pitch 50-75 pitches in any event. Blackburn has been a solid arm at the ML level with a mid 3 ERA but he also has a tiny 9% K rate at this level so what exactly are we afraid of here?
The Royals have two hitters in the heart of the order – Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez – that each have a .200+ ISO against RHP the last two seasons while having a 45% plus HC rate this year. This is a stack that will get completely over-looked and although I do not intend to put 6 Royals in my line-up, I do think a core of Moose, Perez with someone like Jorge Soler is a viable build on this slate.
The Orioles are one of those teams that I have a feeling will be popular tonight because the price points are so reasonable (outside of Manny Machado) that they seem to fit perfectly with a Gerrit Cole build. Now I know this team has been ice-cold offensively (which is why the prices are down) but they are facing off with LHP Jaime Garcia who has a .380 wOBA allowed and a .200+ ISO to hitters from both sides of the plate so there is merit to rolling out the right-handed heavy Orioles here. Danny Valencia ($6.8K) has a .200+ ISO this season against LHP so is probably the hitter with the best current form at a punt price but I am not going to overlook guys like Jonathan Schoop (.239 ISO last season), Adam Jones or Trey Mancini who all had 33% HC rates against LHP in 2017 and have some of the best pure talent/upside considering their price that allow me to fit in someone like Cole as my SP1.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
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- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
SP: Gerrit Cole ($27.6K)
SP: Jalen Beeks ($10.9K)
IF: Sam Travis ($5.6K)
IF: Mike Moustakas ($8.1K)
IF: Salvador PErez ($8.5K)
OF: J.D. Martinez ($10.8K)
OF: Adam Jones ($7.3K)
OF: Trey Mancini ($6.6K)
UTIL: Danny Valencia ($6.8K)
UTIL: Jonathan Schoop ($7.5K)
Slate Overview – The main slate is simply all about Gerrit Cole and then how you differentiate from there. Much like the early slate I think Cole/Berrios are the kinds of chalk you eat and look to be contrarian elsewhere and one of the ways I think you can do that on this slate is to target the Royals bats that will get over-looked having the lowest run total against a pitcher making his first start since 2017 with his 9% ML K rate. Good luck all and enjoy your day of MLB DFS.
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