DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Friday, June 8
Welcome into the Friday edition of the DFS MLB game by game breakdown column! We have a 14 game monster slate so let’s get right into it.
We had two separate slats yesterday and we made some money on both. Joc Pederson and Jose Berrios carries us in the early slate with a combined 110+ points, but we did miss tournaments on that one. The evening saw us just hit the back of tournaments thanks to Gerrit Cole, Evan Gattis and Danny Valencia. I wish I would have played Matt Olson instead of Justin Smoak but that’s going to happen some days in DFS. We’re not going to waste any more time since there’s so much in front of us tonight and money to be made!
DFS MLB – Brewers at Phillies
Brewers Probable Starter – Jhoulys Chacin, RHP
3.39 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 17.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .276 average, .345 wOBA, 33.7 fly ball rate and 40.2 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .184 average, .243 wOBA, 41.4 fly ball rate and 39.2 hard contact rate
It’s been a tough go of things for Philly these past couple weeks offensively. Losing Rhys Hoskins in the middle of that lineup hasn’t helped and the only hitters I’d be looking at for them tonight are super cheap lefties. Carlos Santana and Cesar Hernandez are fine options but you’re not getting a discount on them. The two hitters that would get the most attention from me are Odubel Herrera and Nick Williams, if he’s in the lineup. Herrera is ice cold the past two weeks but his price has dipped to reflect that. It’s a great buy low opportunity but it also might be best served for a GPP entry. Williams has been much better in that time span and could be the better play for cash purposes. You could consider Chacin to some extent but the best outcome is likely between 30-35 points.
Phillies Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Nick Williams, Odubel Herrera
Secondary Options – Cesar Hernadez, Carlos Santana
Phillies Probable Starter – Vince Velasquez, RHP
3.82 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 29.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .286 average, .383 wOBA, 46.2 fly ball rate and 30.9 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .191 average, .236 wOBA, 38.0 fly ball rate and 28.0 hard contact rate
While we’re on the subject of GPP style plays, it doesn’t get much riskier than play Velasquez tonight. He’s not exactly cheap but he’s striking out plenty of batters and the Brewers rank seventh in strikeout rate to righties in 2018. That’s all great but there’s two hitters that have a wOBA over .380 against righty pitching the past 14 days and they hit lefty, the weak spot for Velasquez. Travis Shaw and Christian Yelich are both in prime spots to deliver gobs of points tonight and Shaw especially is attractive on FanDuel at just $3,600. You can take a stab at Jonathan Villar if you need a cheap second baseman but Shaw and Yelich are the main targets here.
Brewers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw
Secondary Options – Jonathan Villar, Jesus Aguilar
Home Run Pick – Travis Shaw
DFS MLB – Giants at Nationals
Giants Probable Starter – Andrew Suarez, LHP
4.74 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 23.5 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .180 average, .205 wOBA, 29.4 fly ball rate and 27.8 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .300 average, .383 wOBA, 31.1 fly ball rate and 45.7 hard contact rate
The Nationals have a nice matchup tonight against a mediocre lefty and one of the big decisions at third base this evening is going to be playing Shaw from the Brewers or Anthony Rendon for the Nats. Rendon has incredible numbers against lefties this year and are better than his already healthy career numbers against lefty pitching. Suarez isn’t fooling any righty hitters and I think I would lean Rendon in cash games because he’s going to be more popular. Past that, Juan Soto is a great play but you’re paying the premium for him right now. Soto just hits lefties so well I think he can get to Suarez. Mark Reynolds has dropped in price back to playable levels and he’s firmly on the radar for tonight. A stack of righty hitters for Washington is a solid GPP play.
Nationals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Anthony Rendon, Mark Reynolds, Juan Soto
Secondary Options – Bryce Harper, Trea Turner
Nationals Probable Starter – Stephen Strasburg, RHP
3.20 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 29.3 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .214 average, .273 wOBA, 28.2 fly ball rate and 27.4 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .222 average, .293 wOBA, 36.1 fly ball rate and 39.3 hard contact rate
Strasburg might fly a bit under the radar tonight since he’s only the fourth most expensive option at pitcher on FanDuel. I don’t think the Giants are going to do too much damage against him on the road and they do carry the sixth highest strikeout rate in baseball. There’s another matchup for Justin Verlander later on that look very close by the metrics. Strasburg is significantly cheaper than Verlander and that can’t be ignored. His splits look pretty good to each side of the plate and I just don’t see a reason to try and pick on him on a slate this big. The only hitter to somewhat consider is Buster Posey and that’s only if you’re a believer in BvP data(.429 average in 21 at-bats with 0 HR).
Giants Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Buster Posey
Home Run Pick – Anthony Rendon
DFS MLB – Orioles at Blue Jays
Orioles Probable Starter – Andrew Cashner, RHP
5.02 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and 19.3 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .282 average, .382 wOBA, 47.4 fly ball rate and 30.6 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .308 average, .382 wOBA, 30.0 fly ball rate and 34.8 hard contact rate
I’m still trying to come to grips with Jaime Garcia and David Hess each throwing good games last night while breaking this game down. That was insanely frustrating but we can try and figure out how to attack Cashner. Toronto hits for power and not much else so I’d focus my energy mostly on righties that have the power to hit homers. Teoscar Hernandez is the first player to jump out in the split since he’s not too bad against righty pitching and he’s a power hitter. The two off the wall plays are Kevin Pillar and Aledmys Diaz. Both have good wOBA’s against righty pitching. Pillar could be a stolen base threat and Diaz would be a pure punt to help afford the ace and big bat of your choice.
Blue Jays Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Teoscar Hernandez, Kevin Pillar, Kendrys Morales
Secondary Options – Aledmys Diaz, Justin Smoak
Blue Jays Probable Starter – J.A. Happ, LHP
4.08 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 30.0 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .155 average, .187 wOBA, 26.3 fly ball rate and 21.1 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .244 average, .318 wOBA, 40.4 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard contact rate
This is a very poor matchup for Happ but it will depend on what Orioles offense shows up tonight. If it’s last night’s version(fine, I’m still a little biter they let me down), Happ could be a very sneaky play. However, the Orioles can go big against Happ very easily and they have righty bats that should hurt him. Baltimore is in the same boat as the Jays. They hit for power but not much else. They strikeout 23 percent of the time against southpaws meaning there is certainly a scary low floor. I’m going to keep heading back to the same plays for Baltimore against a lefty but won’t attack Happ too heavily. It’s Manny Machado, Danny Valencia and maybe Adam Jones for me tonight. No outcome of this game would be all that surprising and I really believe that Happ is an elite GPP option to differentiate yourself from the aces up top.
Orioles Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Manny Machado, Danny Valencia
Secondary Options -Adam Jones
Home Run Pick – Kevin Pillar
DFS MLB – White Sox at Red Sox
White Sox Probable Starter – Dylan Covey, RHP
2.82 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 22.1 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .256 average, .312 wOBA, 24.1 fly ball rate and 48.3 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .240 average, .244 wOBA, 17.9 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard contact rate
Through four starts, Covey has actually looked like a quality major league pitcher. That’s pretty cool for him but he’s walking into the lion’s den tonight The Red Sox have smashed righties all year long and they have hitters that are very goo fastball hitters, which Covey throws close to 70 percent of the time. Andrew Benintendi has overtaken J.D. Martinez in salary on FanDuel and I have to admit, I’ve given the youngster short shrift. Over the past 30 days, he’s been a destroyer of baseballs with an average of .355, OBP of .427, a .355 ISO and a .470 wOBA. That’s MVP type levels of offense and he’s in a great spot tonight. We’ll see if we can fit him in salary wise. The much cheaper lefty bat is Mitch Moreland and both players hit the fastball equally well. Martinez himself ranks third against the pitch in 2018. It’s going to be a tough road for Covey tonight. Also, get well soon Mookie Betts. DFS players everywhere miss you.
Red Sox Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez, Mitch Moreland
Secondary Options –Xander Bogaerts, Brock Holt
Red Sox Probable Starter – Chris Sale, LHP
3.00 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 34.0 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .233 average, .271 wOBA, 24.0 fly ball rate and 25.9 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .189 average, .268 wOBA, 43.4 fly ball rate and 26.3 hard contact rate
This side of the game is fairly easy because Sale is my favorite pitcher by a hair over Justin Verlander. The White Sox have the highest strikeout rate against lefties in baseball by a whopping 1.4 percent. That’s a pretty massive gap and they also rank 25th or lower in average, OPS and wOBA. The only category they rank above average is ISO and I have a hard time seeing the White Sox hitting for power against Sale. The big lefty for Boston has had two very subpar outings against the Braves and Astros but that streak is in line to end tonight. You can play Jose Abreu and Tim Anderson as low owned GPP options but good luck with that.
White Sox Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson
Home Run Pick – Mitch Moreland
DFS MLB – Indians at Tigers
Indians Probable Starter – Trevor Bauer, RHP
2.77 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 29.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .215 average, .274 wOBA, 35.9 fly ball rate and 39.8 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .211 average, .274 wOBA, 34.3 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard contact rate
If you forced me to play a pitcher not named Sale or Verlander tonight, Bauer might well be my choice. His strikeout rate is just so good lately as he’s hit double digits in three of the past four starts. The Tigers haven’t struck out as a team as much as you might think but I’m not tied to that for this start. One of the double digit starts came against the Tigers just a few weeks ago when Bauer went for 64 points on an afternoon slate. As good as the Tigers are against lefty pitching, they’re close to the opposite end of the spectrum against righties. They rank 20th or worse almost across the board. Bauer is in a great spot to dominate tonight and I won’t be suing Tigers at all this evening.
Tigers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Leonys Martin, Miguel Cabrera, Nicholas Castellanos
Tigers Probable Starter – Michael Fulmer, RHP
4.73 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 19.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .237 average, .339 wOBA, 34.3 fly ball rate and 36.9 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .265 average, .316 wOBA, 28.9 fly ball rate and 41.5 hard contact rate
This is not a good spot for Fulmer at all tonight and it’s even deeper than “he’s pitching against the Indians”. His fly ball rate and hard contact actually don’t look terrible and it would lead me to think that the high ERA might just be an oddity. Here’s the deal – Fulmer uses a fastball and a slider about 85 percent of the time and that doesn’t mesh well against Cleveland’s best hitters. Jose Ramirez is the best fastball hitter in baseball and it’s not really that close. He rates well against the slider as well, as does Francisco Lindor who is the best Cleveland hitter against the slider. You certainly can’t go wrong with Michael Brantley either. Those three hitters are among the best on the slate tonight.
Indians Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley
Secondary Options – Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis
Home Run Pick – Jose Ramirez
DFS MLB – Yankees at Mets
Yankees Probable Starter – Masahiro Tanaka, RHP
4.79 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 23.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .235 average, .308 wOBA, 32.5 fly ball rate and 27.9 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .228 average, .338 wOBA, 40.9 fly ball rate and 38.4 hard contact rate
I think Tanaka is borderline cash viable tonight. The Mets have average offensive metrics against righty pitching but a good chunk of that comes from Brandon Nimmo and Asdrubal Cabrera, who will bat left handed against Tanaka. That’s the better side of the split for Tanaka since he’s given up a lot more homers to righty hitters. Also, no regular hitter other than Nimmo has a good rating against the split fingered fastball. It’s not the most common pitch but that’s where the data is at this point in the season. Anyone who has ever rostered Tanaka likely knows that things can go south in a hurry. I say borderline cash viable because I don’t think I would play him over one of the elite pitchers but I;m not sure I’d totally blame you if you wanted save money to spend on offensive pieces.
Mets Hitters to Target
Elite Optons – None
Secondary Options – Brandon Nimmo, Todd Frazier, Asdrubal Cabrera
Mets Probable Starter – Jacob deGrom, RHP
1.49 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 33.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .221 average, .262 wOBA, 30.6 fly ball rate and 20.2 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .186 average, .218 wOBA, 29.9 fly ball rate and 28.2 hard contact rate
deGrom is one of the few pitchers who could actually give Max Scherzer a run for his money in the N.L. Cy young race if he keeps pitching like he is right now but I won’t play him against the Yankee lineup in cash at all. It’s just not a wise investment. Now, GPP is totally different. The public loves the Yankees lineup and he won’t be highly owned. I wouldn’t mess around with Yankees hitters in cash either because Ive got plenty of respect for deGrom. For what it’s worth, the Mets ace doesn’t have a good track record in this matchup. Giancarlo Stanton especially sees him well as he’s hit four home runs in 22 at-bats.
Yankees Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres
Home Run Pick – Giancarlo Stanton
DFS MLB – Padres at Marlins
Padres Probable Starter – Eric Lauer, LHP
6.82 ERA, 1.98 WHIP and 19.1 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .343 average, .403 wOBA, 46.7 fly ball rate and 35.5 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .336 average, .421 wOBA, 36.9 fly ball rate and 45.5 hard contact rate
These two teams just faced each other and both pitchers today pitched on May 28th. Lauer got crushed and scored one point on FanDuel. If you’ve tagged along with this article for any amount of time, it’s appreciated and you’re awesome. You also would know that I can’t stand the Marlins in DFS. When I play pitchers against them, they put up five runs. When I play offensive pieces, they give me a single if I’m lucky. I might need to break my own rule since they get to face Eric Lauer this evening. The young gun for the Padres has struggled massively this season and it’s hard to completely ignore this spot. I’d side with either Brian Anderson, Derek Dietrich or J.T. Realmuto if you go this direction. Dietrich is the cheapest on FanDuel while Realmuto has the most upside. It’s a little gross and scary to play Miami but they’re not bad plays in a vacuum.
Marlins Hitters to Target
Elite Options – J.T. Realmuto
Secondary Options – Derek Dietrich, Brian Anderson
Marlins Probable Starter – Caleb Smith, LHP
4.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 29.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .288 average, .327 wOBA, 34.8 fly ball rate and 39.1 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .161 average, .267 wOBA, 57.7 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard contact rate
Smith pitched well against the Padres last time out but his strikeouts have taken a dip and that really drops his appeal. The Padres are also better against lefty pitching this season and there’s only two hitters that I’m considering in cash. It’s the same song and dance when the Padres play a lefty in Christian Villanueva and Hunter Renfroe. I can see Myles playing two third baseman on FanDuel tonight because Villanueva has a .552 wOBA against lefty pitching in 62 at-bats this year and he’s only $3,000. He comes with some risk with a 32 percent strikeout rate but the price tag is just too low for a hitter with those platoon stats. Renfroe is more expensive than normal and is a bit of a tougher decision. I likely won’t take the risk on Smith tonight given his recent form.
Padres Hitters to Target
Elite Options -Christian Villanueva, Hunter Renfroe
Secondary Options – Franmil Reyes
Home Run Pick – Christian Villanueva
DFS MLB – Mariners at Rays
Mariners Probable Starter – Marco Gonzales, LHP
3.38 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 21.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .242 average, .285 wOBA, 27.6 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .278 average, .320 wOBA, 25.3 fly ball rate and 31.9 hard contact rate
Coming into the season, the Rays were thought to be a weak team against lefty pitching. The first part of 2018 turned that on its head because they were actually pretty good for a while. Since May first, they are 23rd or worse in average, OPS, ISO and wOBA. They’re also carrying the fifth highest strikeout rate as a team in that span. Gonzales has gone at least 6.2 innings and struck out six in each of his last three starts. He definitely needs a quality start and a win to reach his ceiling but he’ll definitely get lost in the shuffle tonight despite the solid matchup. C.J. Cron and Denard Span would be abut the only hitters I’d chase. Cron could hit a home run and Span could swipe a base or two.
Rays Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – C.J. Cron, Denard Span
Rays Probable Starter – Wilmer Font, RHP
We’re going to pay no attention to who the “starter” is for the Rays a lot of days because they continue to use a pitcher for a short time and then go with a long relived after an inning or two. For those who don’t already, make sure to follow Marc Topkin on Twitter. He’s great beat reporter for the Rays and always updates the pitching info DFS players need. Just remember to be gracious to him because it’s not his job to answer fantasy questions. Beat reporters are a massively important resource for us. Once we have an idea of who’s going to be the long man tonight, we can have a better idea of who to target for the Mariners.
Mariners Hitters to Target
Elite Options – TBD
Secondary Options – TBD
Home Run Pick – Nelson Cruz
DFS MLB – Cardinals at reds
Cardinals Probable Starter – Luke Weaver, RHP
4.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 21.5 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .290 average, .347 wOBA, 35.6 fly ball rate and 30.4 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .200 average, .256 wOBA, 39.1 fly ball rate and 33.7 hard contact rate
I wouldn’t be rushing to put Weaver into any lineup tonight. The Reds aren’t a great overall offense against righty pitching. They’re below average in most offensive categories but the key here is Weaver has struggled with lefties. That’s where the strength of the Reds lineup is with Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler and Jesse Winker. Votto is having a mediocre season overall but is still excellent against righties. He may not have the power upside that other players with his price tag do so keep that in mind. Gennett has been swinging a hot bat as well lately. If you need cheaper options, Schebler and especially Winker fit the bill. There’s power to be had in Cincinnati tonight for sure.
Reds Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Scooter Gennett, Jesse Winker
Secondary Options – Joey Votto, Scott Schebler
Reds Probable Starter – Matt Harvey, RHP
5.79 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 17.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .306 average, .410 wOBA, 43.2 fly ball rate and 42.2 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .250 average, .299 wOBA, 25.0 fly ball rate and 36.1 hard contact rate
Let me preface this by saying this would be the deepest of shots in the dark only, but Harvey could actually be serviceable tonight against the Cardinals. I know it might seem weird but the Cardinals lineup is loaded with righties. Harvey hasn’t been bad at all against the handedness. If he can navigate Matt Carpenter, Kolten Wong and Dexter Fowler, he could have a nice game. Carpenter is expensive since he’s been coming out of his slump but you can’t say the matchup isn’t worth the price. Fowler is firmly in the mid-range of players tonight and I’m not sure he’ll make the final player pool. Wong is a great punt play with the low salary and the split he’s in tonight.
Cardinals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Matt Carpenter
Secondary Options – Kolten Wong, Dexter Fowler, Jose Martinez, Tommy Pham
Home Run Pick – Kolten Wong
WEST PALM BEACH, FL – MARCH 09: Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros delivers a pitch during the third inning of a spring training game against the St. Louis Cardinals at FITTEAM Ball Park of the Palm Beaches on March 9, 2018 in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
DFS MLB – Astros at Rangers
Astros Probable Starter – Justin Verlander, RHP
1.24 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and 31.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .120 average, .185 wOBA, 53.2 fly ball rate and 24.1 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .174 average, .217 wOBA, 56.6 fly ball rate and 25.1 hard contact rate
Verlander has throughly dominated the Rangers during his career and he’s on track to win a Cy Young this year. I think he’s going to be awesome tonight and I will roster exactly zero hitters from the Rangers lineup. If I’m trying to paint the worst case scenario, Verlander has a worse matchup than Sale because the Rangers lineup has more power potential. Still, it’s a true coin flip between Verlander and Sale. I don’t think either pitcher is a bad play at all. I’m almost surely going with Sale.
Rangers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Joey Gallo, Adrian Beltre
Rangers Probable Starter – Doug Fister, RHP
4.13 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 14.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .241 average, .317 wOBA, 32.6 fly ball rate and 45.3 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .301 average, .362 wOBA, 20.5 fly ball rate and 34.8 hard contact rate
We almost never play pitchers against the Astros, even though Fister hasn’t been terrible against the Astros in the previous two starts he’s made this year. I still tend to side with the Astros in this spot because they’re that good of an offense and Fister is reverse splits. Houston should be able to put out a bunch of righties and all the normal suspects are in play. Other than the big names, the two players that may not get a lot of attention are Josh Reddick and Evan Gattis. The bearded big man for Houston was chalky last night but it was only a five game slate. He should fall through the cracks and is just as good a play as he was yesterday. Reddick is making his way back from a stint on the disabled list and is at a every reasonable price.
Astros Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, George Springer,
Secondary Options – Josh Reddick, Evan Gattis, Carlos Correa
Home Run Pick – Jose Altuve
ANAHEIM, CA – SEPTEMBER 16: Justin Upton #9 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim is greeted by Mike Trout #27 as he returns to the dugout after hitting a solo home run in the eighth inning, his second of the game against the Texas Rangers on September 16, 2017 at Angel Stadium of Anaheim in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
DFS MLB – Angels at Twins
Angels Probable Starter – Garrett Richards, RHP
3.25 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 26.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .178 average, .266 wOBA, 29.1 fly ball rate and 32.9 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .229 average, .301 wOBA, 30.4 fly ball rate and 418 hard contact rate
This profiles to be a spot that is right up Richards’ alley because the Twins lineup has a ton of lefties. The righty hitters that worry you are Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano and neither payer is that scary right now given current form. The strikeout rate for Richards is higher against lefties and he’s a worthy pivot from the big name pitchers. Even if you don’t want to play Richards tonight, I’m not crazy about Minnesota bats. This definitely seems like a spot where you either play Richards, stack the Twins hoping he blows up or you just let it be. Eddie Rosario is white hot and he could be the lefty hitter that gets to Richards if anyone does.
Twins Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Eddie Rosario, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano
Twins Probable Starter – Lance Lynn, RHP
5.46 ERA, 1.75 WHIP and 21.3 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .290 average, .376 wOBA, 18.4 fly ball rate and 46.1 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .264 average, .345 wOBA, 33.3 fly ball rate and 40.2 hard contact rate
The metrics still look awful for Lynn but beware if you’re looking to stack against him. He’s not in play with mediocre strikeout potential but he’s also hit a quality start three straight times out. That’s not barely scrapping by either, he’s only given up three earned runs his past 18.2 innings pitched. You could always use Mike Trout and he’s excellent against the fastball. Lynn throws it almost 80 percent of the time. Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton also hit the pitch well but he’s giving up a limited amount of fly balls. I really don’t think I’m going to have much exposure to this game. On a large slate, it’s easy to scratch this one off past Richards.
Angels Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Mike Trout, Justin Upton
Secondary Options – Shohei Ohtani
Home Run Pick – Justin Upton
DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Rockies
Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Zack Greinke, RHP
3.44 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 26.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .231 average, .295 wOBA, 32.6 fly ball rate and 43.0 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .239 average, .297 wOBA, 39.7 fly ball rate and 46.6 hard contact rate
I’m not sure how Greinke has an ERA that low with the fly ball and hard contact rates the way they are. That sure points to regression and maybe it starts to come in Coors Field tonight. I’m not going to forego an ace pitcher tonight to play a bunch of Coors bats and I feel like I’ll be in the majority on that. I wouldn’t be surprised if Greinke struggles tonight but I’m not going to pay up and be wrong. You can always go with Nolan Arenado or Charlie Blackmon but it will cost you. I usually hate any night that Coors is one the slate because it can mess with your head. I don’t think that’s going to be an issue for me tonight.
Rockies Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon
Secondary Options – Carlos Gonzalez
Rockies Probable Starter – German Marquez, RHP
4.38 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 21.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .273 average, .334 wOBA, 37.7 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .248 average, .333 wOBA, 28.0 fly ball rate and 34.1 hard contact rate
I definitely want a little piece of Jake Lamb tonight and maybe even Paul Goldschmidt. Marquez sees all his stats take a significant downturn at home, including giving up a .355 average and .423 wOBA to lefties. Lamb is up at $3,900 and I’m not sure if any Coors hitter will be in my cash lineup. It’s going to be hard to strike a balance of an ace, a hitter from this game that you believe in, and still have enough left over to build a competent offense. Goldy has been better but is $4,600 on FanDuel and that’s little scary. At least Lamb is a bit more palatable although there’s third baseman in just as good a spot and they’re cheaper elsewhere.
Diamondbacks Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb
Secondary Options – David Peralta
Home Run Pick – Carlos Gonzalez and Jake Lamb
DFS MLB – Royals at A’s
Royals Probable Starter – Jakob Junis, RHP
3.62 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 22.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .244 average, .311 wOBA, 47.5 fly ball rate and 35.4 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .217 average, .292 wOBA, 37.9 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard contact rate
Junis is a pretty safe pitcher usually netting you at least 30 FanDuel points. While there is value to that, you could be 30-40 points behind any player that has Sale or Verlander. This slate just isn’t the spot to start Junis and he just pitched against this A’s team last time out. We highlighted Matt Olson on Sunday because Junis throws his slider so much and Olson excels at hitting that pitch. Olson did connect for a three run bomb very late in that game that won us some money. It also doesn’t hurt that Olson is white hot, hitting five homers in his last seven games. I would only chase the lefties here so that also means Dustin Fowler and Jed Lowrie. Unless you’re stacking the A’s offense, I can’t see playing the righty bats because Junis has been so good against them.
A’s Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Matt Olson
Secondary Options – Dustin Fowler, Jed Lowrie
A’s Probable Starter – Frankie Montas, RHP
0.64 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 17.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .100 average, .119 wOBA, 45.8 fly ball rate and 24.0 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .368 average, .393 wOBA, 20.0 fly ball rate and 60.0 hard contact rate
I could be missing the boat on Montas but I just can’t get on board with him tonight, especially at his price. I don’t fully understand why his price is so high after two (admittedly great) starts. He drew the Royals last time as well and I think Kansas City could be a very sneaky stack tonight. Pitchers tend to struggle when they see a team often in close proximity and Montas only struck out two hitter last time. Whit Merrifield and Jorge Soler are the only two I’d have any real interest in outside of a stack. The very small track record for Montas is suggesting reverse splits. If you want to stack, add in Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez.
Royals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler, Salvador Perez, Mike Moustakas
Home Run Pick – Matt Olson
DFS MLB – Braves at Dodgers
Braves Probable Starter – Brandon McCarthy, RHP
4.83 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 18.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .257 average, .337 wOBA, 23.9 fly ball rate and 36.4 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .326 average, .364 wOBA, 23.9 fly ball rate and 29.1 hard contact rate
I think the clear best play on the board for the Dodgers tonight is Matt Kemp. The crafty old veteran is having a throwback season and is competing for a batting title with double digit home runs. McCarthy has been reverse splits and Kemp has been crushing righty pitching. This isn’t a good matchup for McCarthy individually but the Dodgers have some lefties that McCarthy could take advantage of. I want to play Justin Turner but his wrist is bothering him. That kind of injury saps power and even a lower price tag might not be enough to make him worthwhile. The lone lefty that I want is Cody Bellinger, who has hit a home run for three straight days. You could side with Chris Taylor but shortstop is fairly loaded. I have a tough time hitting submit with him as a part of the lineup.
Dodgers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Matt Kemp, Cody Bellinger
Secondary Options – Justin Turner, Chris Taylor
Dodgers Probable Starter – Walker Buehler, RHP
2.74 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 27.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .208 average, .261 wOBA, 33.3 fly ball rate and 27.3 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .213 average, .234 wOBA, 22.7 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard contact rate
Buehler is cheap enough on FanDuel to tempt me into playing him in tournament formats. The Braves could explode at any time but Buehler has been showing exactly why he was so highly regarded prior to his call up this season. If you want the one-off bat, it has to be either Freddie Freeman or Ozzie Albies. Freeman is hot coming into this game and should be very low owned. Albies is on the wrong side of his split but the young second baseman can hit any pitcher in the league. This side of the gem is definitely a GPP special and nothing else.
Dodgers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Freddie Freeman
Secondary Options – Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis
Home Run Pick – Cody Bellinger
DFS MLB FanDuel Sample Lineup (with Ace)
P – Chris Sale
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C/1B – Kendrys Morales
2B – Kolten Wong
3B – Travis Shaw
SS – Brock Holt
OF – Josh Reddick, Dexter Fowler, Christian Yelich
Utility – Christian Villanueva
As I’ve mentioned, Sale is basically locked up for me tonight. Morales draws another solid matchup with Andre Cashner and put some good swings on the ball last night. I wonder if Wong is going to be super sneaky. I’m definitely siding with Shaw and Yelich from the Brewers lineup and we’ll take old reliable at the shortstop spot, Brock Holt. Josh Reddick is a solid value, as is Dexter Fowler and then we’ll gamble that Villanueva doesn’t strikeout three times tonight.
DFS MLB FanDuel Sample Lineup(without an Ace)
P – Garrett Richards
C/1B – Matt Olson
2B – Kolten Wong
3B – Anthony Rendon
SS – Daniel Robertson
OF – Matt Kemp, Odubel Herrera, Andrew Benintendi
Utility – Travis Shaw
I do really like almost all of the hitters in this lineup and this might find its way into a GPP. Second base is kind of gross today I think so I’ll take the savings there. A nice punt at shortstop and in one of the outfield spots lets us do whatever else we want to. Benintendi, Olson and Kemp are scorching hot and we’ll try to ride that wave. I’m all in on Travis Shaw and Anthony Rendon is a nice compliment at third.
The Core – Chris Sale, Travis Shaw, Dexter Fowler
Stacks to Consider – Red Sox(vs White Sox), Blue Jays(vs Baltimore), Cardinals(at Cincinnati), Coors Field, Astros(at Texas) and Angels(at Minnesota)
As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.