Fantasy Football Dynasty Running Back Sleepers For 2018
We continue the deep dive into current Fantasy Football Dynasty ADP to identify late round targets for startup drafts. Although this is the main focus, these players can also serve as potential trade bargains for dynasty owners with a solidified roster. We will break down each players value above ADP, age, and potential upside.
When undergoing a startup draft, always remember to pivot when your league-mates panic. One of the common trends I’ve seen in these early drafts are running backs flying off the board quickly. I can’t stress this enough: if you want to build an RB heavy roster, expect to reach on nearly every one of your picks. If there was ever a season for the Zero RB strategy to make a comeback, it would be this one. I’m not suggesting this as the optimal choice, but depending on draft position and league structure it might not be a bad one.
With that being said, there’s still a solid group of running backs that will be available after the fourth round, but a few of these guys are being hyped up to the point it might become dangerous to let them fall too far.
Reminder: We use ADP data from MFL, and these rankings are based on value vs current draft position.
5. Alex Collins – Ravens
Current ADP: #65 (RB25)
Age: 23
Potential Upside: B+
Collins seems to be trending up so if you still have a chance to get him late, do it. He was given the nod to be ‘the guy’ in Baltimore after week nine last year, and he had at least thirteen carries per game the rest of the season. According to PFF, Collins logged over half a fantasy point per opportunity, and nearly half a point per snap. These two statistics are a phenomenal way to measure efficiency among running backs. To put his performance into perspective, let’s take a look at an anonymous comparison for dramatic effect:
Player A: .46 Points Per Snap, .54 Points Per Opportunity
Player B: .43 Points Per Snap, .47 Points Per Opportunity
Curious yet? You should be. Player A is Captain Collins himself (nickname pending), and Player B?….. Le’Veon Bell.
I’m not saying Collins is anywhere near the asset that Bell is from a fantasy perspective, but it’s a very clear indicator that when he gets a chance between the tackles, he makes the most of it. If Collins’ role increases at all this season, than fantasy owners will be in for a treat.
Fantasy Football Dynasty Running Back Sleepers For 2018
4. Corey Clement – Eagles
Current ADP: #147 (RB45)
Age: 23
Potential Upside: B-
What are two things those of us in the fantasy community love the most? Elite receivers paired with top end quarterback talent, and pass catching running backs. If you caught a glimpse of the Superbowl last season then you certainly caught a glimpse of Corey Clement seemingly coming out of nowhere. With LeGarrette Blount out of the picture and Darren Sproles contemplating retirement, it leaves two options in Philly.
Of those two options, I personally believe one of them is the most overrated player in fantasy. That player is Jay Ajayi. Even if Ajayi turns out to be a strong early down back, there will still be a great deal of points to go around in the Eagles offense. Clement proved he can come up big and efficiently catch passes, and when given the chance at the goal line he can deliver. He probably won’t light the world on fire, but at his current ADP he is basically free. Clement will be a flex consideration every week at the minimum, and has an RB2 ceiling if Ajayi continues to be inefficient. He’s worth the late pick, even if it’s a scoop and stash.
3. CJ Anderson – Panthers
Current ADP: #126 (RB41)
Age: 27
Potential Upside: C+
What if I told you that two seasons ago CJ Anderson was the darling of the fantasy sports scene? You’d probably remain unimpressed with my sports knowledge, because it wasn’t that long ago. Anderson has come a long way since then in terms of value, but I still believe in him. A lot of his struggles had to do with a truly terrible offensive situation in Denver and a lack of consistent QB play. Anderson will get his next and likely final chance to be a relevant back, and he chose a good spot to do it.
The Carolina coaching staff was comfortable giving Jonathan Stewart nearly two-hundred carries last season. Anderson is a more efficient and much more talented back than Stewart ever was. It’s clear Carolina doesn’t want to wear down Christian Mccaffrey, which only means a locked in role for Anderson. Volume is the biggest indicator of fantasy success, and he will get a lot of it. It’s quite rare to find someone with that type of opportunity this late in drafts, so it’s time to take advantage. He is nearly guaranteed to outperform his current draft price, and he’s young enough to stick around for a bit in Carolina as well.
Fantasy Football Dynasty Running Back Sleepers For 2018
2. Tevin Coleman – Falcons
Current ADP: #71 (RB28)
Age: 25
Potential Upside: A-
More from FanSided
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
Always the bridesmaid, never the bride. Coleman has played second fiddle to Devonta Freeman for most of his career, and that likely won’t change much this season. This speaks more to Freeman’s talent than Coleman’s inefficiency, but it still hurts just as much to see him as the 1B. Coleman is a very capable back who has proven he can handle the workload by himself, he just doesn’t get the chance to very often.
The biggest reason to snag him at his current ADP is for the long-term upside. Coleman becomes a free agent after this season, and barring any serious injury he will get a lot of phone calls. If he follows the Jerick McKinnon path then owners will be scrambling to take him significantly earlier next year. If you’re in a dynasty startup, get ahead of the pack and snag Coleman. He’s going off the board as an RB3, but has the potential to be an RB1 next season, or even this one if anything happens to Freeman. Dynasty is about long-term potential, and Coleman has it.
1. Aaron Jones – Packers
Current ADP: #95 (RB34)
Age: 23
Potential Upside: A-
If a motion picture studio ever allows me to develop a fantasy themed horror movie, the first plot I’d suggest would be Bill Belichick terrorizing all of us with conflicting reports about who will get the goal line carries in New England, while Matthew Barry forces every league to have their championship in week 17.
The sequel to that film? A bunch of fantasy analysts stranded in the woods trying to figure out the Green Bay backfield.
Given what we saw last season, it’s hard to guarantee who will come out on top of the….’pack’, but I think Jones has a better chance than anyone. He flashed on the field, he was efficient when healthy, and he has the best collection of tools on the roster to be a workhorse. Whichever guy decides to separate himself as the season goes on will likely yield RB1 value with Rodgers behind center. If you were to combine Jamaal Williams and Jones into one back, he’d be going in the first round, so I see no reason to allow both backs to fall to the eighth. Jones is your best bet.
Next: Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings
Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the lastest Fantasy Football Dynasty previews as we get you set for the 2018 NFL season!