Leo Santa Cruz vs. Abner Mares 2 should mimic first fight
Leo Santa Cruz and Abner Mares meet for the second time in three years. Will the outcome change the second time around? Most likely it won’t
On Saturday, June 9, Leo Santa Cruz (34-1-1, 19 KOs) and Abner Mares (31-2-1 15 KOs) finally come together in a rematch. Santa Cruz won their 2015 contest by majority decision. In most cases, rematches tend to follow a similar path as the first fight and this matchup is no different.
In the first fight, Mares came out aggressively. For the first several rounds, Mares cut down the distance and stood toe-to-toe with Santa Cruz. He dinged Santa Cruz to the body and head. Mares let his hands go and he wasn’t afraid to take risks.
Santa Cruz has all of the physical advantages over Mares. He’s three inches taller than Mares and he has a 3-inch reach advantage. Santa Cruz at 29, is also three years younger than Mares.
Mares was effective early in their first fight because he was able to negate Santa Cruz’s physical advantages. He pushed forward nullifying Santa Cruz’s longer reach. Mares is the better inside boxer of the two.
Santa Cruz doesn’t fight well on his back foot. He’s better coming forward than as a counter puncher. In the first two rounds, Mares got his punches off first and he didn’t give Santa Cruz a chance to get his offense rolling. He stifled Santa Cruz with pressure.
Unfortunately, Mares didn’t pace himself. He was too aggressive and wasted a lot of energy throwing reckless punches. He couldn’t keep up his punch output.
Santa Cruz made Mares pay for his pacing error in rounds four and five. He kept Mares at arm’s length and had Mares fighting going backward. Mares briefly returned to his advancing style in round six, but he couldn’t sustain his energy.
Santa Cruz pushed the action for the rest of the fight. Mares had his moments, but they were fleeting. One judge had it an even 114-114. The other two had it 117-111 for Santa Cruz which gave him the victory. The 117-111 scores were accurate.
Mares and Santa Cruz are the same men physically today that they were three years ago. Neither fighter is any stronger or faster. The big difference is Santa Cruz’s growth mentally. His ring IQ has matured immensely since their first bout.
After his fight with Mares, Santa Cruz fought Carl Frampton twice. He lost their first bout by a close majority decision, but he won the rematch by a close margin. Frampton is one of the most talented boxers in the world. Santa Cruz evolved mentally to outbox Frampton in their rematch. Frampton brought out the best in Santa Cruz which is bad news for Mares.
Today, Santa Cruz is a much more strategic fighter than he was three years ago. He understands how to avoid brawls and can correctly assess the best times to throw power punches. He doesn’t waste his punches as much as he did in his youth.
According to CompuBox (via ESPN), Santa Cruz out-landed Mares in their first fight by 146 punches. He was also more active, throwing 77 more punches than Mares. The gaps in both of these categories should widen the second time around.
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Mares is a great boxer, but Santa Cruz is even greater. Mares gave it his all in their first meeting and there’s nothing to suggest that he’s able to make up his deficiencies as a boxer. Look for Santa Cruz to win their rematch by a decisive unanimous decision. He’s the best featherweight in the game and will prove it Saturday night.