Triple Crown 2018: What are Justify’s odds in the Belmont?

(Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
(Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

Justify may win the Triple Crown, but at his current odds for the race, he won’t be making the people who bet on him much richer.

A horse like Justify, who has won all his races fairly convincingly, deserves to go off as the favorite. A horse on the verge of winning the Triple Crown even more so. This is despite history telling us that most of those who come into the Belmont with a chance at the hat trick leave disappointed.

Justify’s talent was enough to make him the favorite in the Kentucky Derby despite only running 3 races beforehand. His stock has only risen since. At this point he is listed as almost even money to win. His odds, 4-5, mean that if you bet $5 on him to win, and he doesn’t, you will win $4. That’s… not great. In the Kentucky Derby he went off at  3-1 odds, and in the Preakness they were 1-2.

Justify’s odds mean that the smart (Read: most profitable) bet will be on another horse. You just have to choose which of the ‘long shots’ has the best upset potential, and then that horse has to follow through. The current longest shots in the race are Free Drop Billy and Restoring Hope, both listed at 30-1.

You can also increase, exponentially, the profitability of a bet on Justify by using one of the more complicated bets. An Exacta will probably pay out several times what a flat bet-to-win does, and a well thought out Superfecta could set you up for a long time. The key, for either of those scenarios is the scouting (and, let’s be honest, research) that goes into it beforehand. Yes, you could get one right simply through luck, and luck is involved.

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Regardless, don’t be looking to make much money betting on Justify in the Belmont. Win or lose he is sure to go off as the heavy favorite, and deservedly so. He hasn’t given any reason to doubt him, and could run straight into history tomorrow.