Welcome into the Saturday edition of the DFS MLB game by game breakdown! We have a nice split slate of games today so let’s get rolling!
The alternative title to this DFS MLB article could have been “Joc Pederson stabs me in the back” since he hit a home run at a whopping 75+ percent ownership in my cash games. I didn’t play him Friday after he hit two home runs on Thursday and we missed by about three points. Whenever a player is that highly owned, I view it as a failure in my analysis. That many people out of 100 weren’t wrong; I was.
In hindsight, Pederson was $2,400 on FanDuel and he was leading off. He had a solid matchup and was a hot bat. I should have been on him due to those factors. When we get a cheap leadoff bat with Pederson’s potential, it has to be on our radar. That goes double when there are ace pitchers and Coors Field on the slate. He should have been in the lineup instead of Nick Williams or Matt Kemp and that would have allowed us to get another Coors bat. DFS will always provide an opportunity to get better in wins or losses. We have an early five game slate and four game main slate on FanDuel today. Let’s get back on the right side of those cash lines!
DFS MLB Early – Giants at Nationals
Giants Probable Starter – Dereck Rodriguez, RHP
1.93 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 23.3 strikeout rate
The son of Hall of Fame catcher Pudge Rodriguez takes the mound in D.C today and I didn’t put the splits in here because he’s made exactly one start. The Nationals are roundly average against righty pitching so far this season and they don’t strike out a ton. I wouldn’t be using Rodriguez unless it’s a pure money-saving option and you just hope he can be decent and give you some form of a quality start. It’s a little tough to pay up for Bryce Harper right now unless it’s a total smash spot. He’s sporting a 42.3 strikeout rate over the past two weeks. Even on a small slate, I’m not terribly excited by the Nationals today. We don’t have a track record for Rodriguez to fall back on here. The range of outcomes is pretty wide. If you want Washington bats, Michael A. Taylor, Juan Soto and Anthony Rendon would be the safest bets. We need to keep an eye on the status of Adam Eaton. He could be off the DL today and is minimum price on FanDuel. He’s the stone cold lock of the century…of the week if he’s active.
Nationals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Juan Soto, Michael A. Taylor
Secondary Options – Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper
Nationals Probable Starter – Gio Gonzalez, LHP
2.27 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 24.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .175 average, .193 wOBA, 35.7 fly ball rate and 23.8 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .237 average, .302 wOBA, 29.7 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard contact rate
This is not an easy spot to decipher. I’m usually not in the camp of playing Gio Gonzalez because he has a high walk rate and today he faces a team that has some lefty killers. Gonzalez is the most talented pitcher on the early slate and if I think he’s going to be the chalk, I might just swallow my annoyance and uncertainty with him and play him in cash. I will almost always side with chalky pitchers in cash. If they are great, you don’t lose ground on a bunch of other players. If they stink, you’re in the same boat with everyone else.
I wouldn’t go nuts with Giants today. Gonzalez is a good pitcher. The one bat on FanDuel that is worth a shot is Evan Longoria. He’s dirt cheap and a lot of the other interesting bats for San Francisco are full price, which is a little scary.
Giants Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Evan Longoria, Andrew McCutchen
Secondary Options – Buster Posey, Mac Williamson
Home Run Pick – Andrew McCutchen
DFS MLB Early – Brewers and Phillies
BrewersProbable Starter – Brent Suter, LHP
4.55 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 19.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .220 average, .293 wOBA, 38.0 fly ball rate and 35.9 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .270 average, .340 wOBA, 34.3 fly ball rate and 35.1 hard contact rate
Philly got absolutely wrecked last night and times are tough for them right now. If Suter were even a remotely good pitcher, I might actually think about playing him. Heck, he might be an option on two pitcher sites. He’s not going to go deep into the game based off his track record to this point of the year because he hasn’t made it six innings once. With a low strikeout rate and a tiny chance at bonuses for wins and quality starts, it’s tough for him to turn a profit. Scott Kingery hasn’t adjusted to the majors well at this point but he’s batting third currently and is a good value punt play at shortstop. Past that, I’ll maybe take a shot at Aaron Altherr against a lefty. It’s not easy to get excited for Phillies players right this moment.
A’s Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Scott Kingery, Aaron Altherr
Secondary Options – Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez
Phillies Probable Starter – Jake Arrieta, RHP
2.66 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 17.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .262 average, .287 wOBA, 26.8 fly ball rate and 27.7 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .216 average, .266 wOBA, 26.9 fly ball rate and 22.9 hard contact rate
Maybe this isn’t the hottest of hot takes but I think Arrieta is going to get rocked today. Don’t get me wrong, his metrics say he’s a good pitcher in real life. The name of the game is to get hitters out and Arrieta has done that a lot this year. He also doesn’t strike out a lot of batters and if you’re not striking out Brewers, they’re likely to smack you around. Our modus operandi in this article is to follow metrics and stats to give us answers. I’m not going to play Brewers hitters in cash very much but I will have lineup with a Brewers stack in a GPP for sure. I’d stick with the lefty hitters like Christian Yelich because I think it’s likelier that a player steals a base off of Arrieta than hit a home run. Jonathan Villar would also be a fine play.
Royals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw
Secondary Options – Jesus Aguilar, Jonathan Villar
Home Run Pick – Aaron Altherr
DFS MLB Early – Orioles at Blue Jays
Orioles Probable Starter – Kevin Gausman, RHP
4.63ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 22.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .260 average, .326 wOBA, 39.4 fly ball rate and 28.1 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .302 average, .365 wOBA, 27.9 fly ball rate and 40.2 hard contact rate
I’ve almost given up ever getting Gausman right at this point. He’s been a little bit worse to righties so far but gives up more fly balls to lefties so I wouldn’t focus too much on the splits here. We want the Blue Jays bats that do damage against righties. Randall Grichuk just came back from the disabled list and has three 20 point efforts in six games since then. He bats a little lower in the order which is a bummer but he’s also cheap. That last sentence could be said for Aledmys Diaz as well. You could use a tag team of Grichuk and Teoscar Hernandez as a wraparound combo for a very reasonable price. It’s important to note that only Curtis Granderson rates above average against the splitter. That’s one of the best weapons that Gausman has in his arsenal so this side of the game is likely mostly GPP plays.
Blue Jays Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Randall Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, Justin Smoak
Secondary Options – Kevin Pillar, Curtis Granderson, Aledmys Diaz
Blue Jays Probable Starter – Aaron Sanchez, RHP
4.48 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 17.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .301 average, .403 wOBA, 31.9 fly ball rate and 30.9 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .192 average, .269 wOBA, 31.8 fly ball rate and 35.5 hard contact rate
If there’s a matchup that Sanchez could be able to exploit, this is it. The Orioles have a top five strikeout rate, which should help Sanchez out a little bit. Baltimore are also 25th or sores in average, OPS and wOBA against right handed hitting. If these splits remain true, Baltimore is going to struggle against Sanchez. They just don’t have many quality lefties to throw against Sanchez at all. Chris Davis is just a joke at this point and even Pedro Alvarez is striking out at a big clip, as usual. I’m not suggesting that you play Sanchez in cash because that would be quite risky. He’s a wonderful GPP option and there’s only two Orioles hitters that I would want and that’s Alvarez and Manny Machado.
Orioles Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Manny Machado
Secondary Options – Pedro Alvarez
Home Run Pick – Pedro Alvarez, if he doesn’t start I’ll go with Randall Grichuk
DFS MLB Early – Angels at Twins
Angels Probable Starter – Tyler Skaggs, LHP
3.27 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 25.1 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .160 average, .204 wOBA, 42.0 fly ball rate and 37.3 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .279 average, .344 wOBA, 33.3 fly ball rate and 38.4 hard contact rate
Skaggs is a solid pivot today off Gio Gonzalez but he’s likely a little riskier. The average and wOBA against lefty hitters look good but the fly ball rate and hard contact rate do not. If the latter wins out, the Twins could put up some runs on this slate. The best hitters for Minnesota are all lefty like Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler. Those two especially should go under owned since it’s a lefty on lefty matchup. Brian Dozier is also in the running but there’s no discount to be had. It’s not my favorite play on the slate although he’s been hitting a little better these past couple games. Skaggs is in play and I really think he’s going to find success today.
Twins Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario
Secondary Options – Brain Dozier, Miguel Sano
Twins Probable Starter – Kyle Gibson, RHP
3.54 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 25.5 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .229 average, .293 wOBA, 39.7 fly ball rate and 36.0 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .195 average, .279 wOBA, 26.7 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard contact rate
Gibson has a quality start under his belt agains the Angels already this season and he’s got a reasonable shot at a second one today. The Angels lineup is obviously dangerous with Mike Trout and Justin Upton. They still don’t have a lineup that features a really good left handed-hitter and that sets up well for what Gibson does. He also continues to be solid almost every time he pitches. The price is one of the things that keep me from locking him in. He’s not the most expensive player out there but he’s got to be pretty good to hit value over his price tag. I don’t know if that’s an outcome within reach against this Angels lineup.
Padres Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Mike Trout, Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler
Secondary Options – None
Home Run Pick – Brian Dozier
DFS MLB Early – Pirates at Cubs
Pirates Probable Starter – Nick Kingham, RHP
4.03 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 25.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .260 average, .312 wOBA, 36.6 fly ball rate and 29.3 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .177 average, .246 wOBA, 43.9 fly ball rate and 48.8 hard contact rate
Here’s my issue with Kingham – he doesn’t strike out enough batters to reach a ceiling, which is the only way you would want to play him in Chicago. Also, the fly ball rate and hard contact rate to righty hitters is terrifying in Wrigley Field. I was impressed in real life with Kingham last start because he gave up a grand slam four batters into his start and slammed the door after that point. That shows the kid has some mental toughness but drawing the Cubs is no easy task.
The other big factor for me is Kingham just saw this lineup the start before last. It was arguably his worst start as a pro. Maybe this is the Pirates fan of 30+ years talking but I feel like the Cubs roll today. I’d fire up any hitter and Kris Bryant is in the running for the high-end play of the early slate for me. It’s now 20 games since he hit a home run. He’s so past due it’s not even funny.
Cubs Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber
Secondary Options – Willson Contreras, Ben Zobrist
Cubs Probable Starter – Jon Lester, LHP
2.44 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 21.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .194 average, .253 wOBA, 41.3 fly ball rate and 29.2 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .225 average, .305 wOBA, 38.6 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard contact rate
One of the reasons that Gonzalez might be the pitching chalk is because you have to have some concern about Lester against the Pirates. They’ve gotten to him both times this season to an extent and they hung 10 runs on Lester in Wrigley the last time they met in Chicago last season. Now, we’re not going to make a habit about referencing a game 11 months ago when making a case against a pitcher. It’s just to note that the struggles are real for Lester against the Pirates. That’s three of the last four starts that Lester has made against the Bucs that he’s gotten touched up. Starling Marte and Josh Harrison would be among my favorites because if they get on, they should be able to steal off of Lester. Two hitters that might not get a ton of love are Sean Rodriguez and Jordy Mercer. Both hit lefties well and have success against Lester in the past.
Pirates Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Starling Marte, Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer
Secondary Options – Francisco Cervelli, Sean Rodriguez, Josh Bell
Home Run Pick – Kris Bryant
DFS MLB Main – Diamondbacks at Rockies
Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Matt Koch, RHP
3.76 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 13.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .186 average, .286 wOBA, 34.5 fly ball rate and 42.4 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .308 average, .390 wOBA, 35.2 fly ball rate and 50.0 hard contact rate
I almost never pay full price for the big name righties from the Rockies unless there is a lefty on the mound but the splits displayed by Koch have me thinking a bit differently tonight. The catch for this four game slate is how many Rockies and Astros can you fit in with Charlie Morton. DJ LeMahieu is under $4,000 on FanDuel and that’s a major surprise. I still want to find a way to squeeze in Nolan Arenado but it’s going to be difficult to pull it off. Seeing as how it’s Coors, the splits probably aren’t the most important thing here. Koch is an average pitcher who pitches to contact. He’s in line to get ripped. It’s only four games and this one is going to be super high owned. If you fade it and it goes off, your night is sure to be over quickly.
Rockies Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, DJ Lemahieu
Secondary Options – Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story, Ian Desmond
Rockies Probable Starter – Chad Bettis, RHP
4.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 16.0 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .212 average, .286 wOBA, 30.0 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .272 average, .331 wOBA, 34.6 fly ball rate and 34.4 hard contact rate
To the surprise of absolutely nobody, Bettis has been significantly worse at home this year. He’s reverse splits there as well so we’re on the hunt for Diamondbacks right-handed hitters. I typically want to pay Jake Lamb and David Peralta against righty pitching but I’m at least giving it a second thought know how the splits work for Bettis. Maybe instead of Arenado, I’ll take the small savings on Paul Goldschmidt, who has finally woke up this year. You could “punt” with Nick Ahmed or Chris Owings but the appeal isn’t the greatest with the Coors Field premium baked into their price tags. John Ryan Murphy would be a solid play as well if he’s in the lineup.
Diamondbacks Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Paul Goldschmidt, John Ryan Murphy
Secondary Options – David Peralta, Jake Lamb
Home Run Pick – Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt
DFS MLB Main – Yankees at Mets
Yankees Probable Stater – Domingo German, RHP
5.44 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 24.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .210 average, .286 wOBA, 40.3 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .247 average, .332 wOBA, 32.7 fly ball rate and 42.3 hard contact rate
Even though German has been better against lefty hitters so far, this isn’t the greatest spot for him. The Mets are a lot better against righty pitching than they are against lefties. The strikeout rate is good as well, meaning the ceiling for German might not be there. It almost feels like a trap that Brandon Nimmo is so cheap and he’s a very attractive option outside of Coors and the Houston lineup. I might wind up playing another Met or two but they are not the main focus tonight. It’s just a matter of taking a cheap Mets option if it helps.
Mets Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Brandon Nimmo
Secondary Options – Michael Conforto, Devin Mesoraco, Todd Frazier
Mets Probable Starter – Steven Matz, LHP
3.42 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 21.7 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .154 average, .261 wOBA, 10.3 fly ball rate and 8.5 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .234 average, .332 wOBA, 40.0 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard contact rate
As much as Goldschmidt in Denver calls to me, I’m not sure he’s in a better spot than Giancarlo Stanton. The Yankees slugger has ripped apart lefty pitching this season with a .498 wOBA and a .456 ISO already. If you had to put me at a guess, I would say that Goldy is sitting around double the ownership of Stanton. I’m not sure it should be that big of a gap, even though leaving off Coors bats can be scary. Gary Sanchez keeps seeing his price drop because he’s not hitting that well but this is a spot that could wake up his bat. It’s a rare slate that a Yankee stack might come in under owned but I think at least two other offenses will be higher owned, if not three. New York is a great GPP option all the way around.
Yankees Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge
Secondary Options – Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks
Home Run Pick – Giancarlo Stanton
DFS MLB Main – Astros at Rangers
Astros Probable Starter – Charlie Morton, RHP
2.84 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 31.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .188 average, .273 wOBA, 34.2 fly ball rate and 42.7 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .231 average, .306 wOBA, 25.7 fly ball rate and 26.7 hard contact rate
Morton might be coming off his worst start of the season but he’s not even a question for me tonight. The pitching outside of him is just brutal tonight and he’s an absolute must in any cash game. Texas is flirting with the league lead in strikeout rate against righties so even if Morton gives up a run or two, he should be fine. Lock him in and the only reason to play a Rangers hitters is to stack them up in GPP’s to hope that Morton gets lit up for the second start in a row.
Rangers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Adrian Beltre, Joey Gallo, Jurickson Profar, Nomar Mazara, Shin-soo Choo
Rangers Probable Starter – Mike Minor, LHP
5.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 20.1 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .231 average, .306 wOBA, 26.7 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .285 average, .379 wOBA, 46.1 fly ball rate and 40.7 hard contact rate
Coors or the Astros, Astros or Coors? That’s a very difficult question to answer tonight because the Astros bats are in a smash spot against Mike Minor in Texas. He’s really struggling with righty hitters and that top of the Houston lineup is full of incredible righties. I’m really hoping that Max Stassi plays tonight. Brian McCann should take it easy with that knee injury and take a night off. Don’t rush back to full time action just yet, big fella. Stassi is one of the cheapest plays on the board that I would deploy with full confidence. I fully expect the top of the Astros order to do some serious work tonight.
Astros Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, George Springer, Max Stassi
Secondary Options – Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis
Home Run Pick – Carlos Correa if he plays, Jose Altuve if he doesn’t
DFS MLB Main -Braves at Dodgers
Braves Probable Starter – Anibal Sanchez, RHP
2.16 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 20.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .184 average, .287 wOBA, 28.0 fly ball rate and 32.0 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .208 average, .297 wOBA, 36.4 fly ball rate and 15.6 hard contact rate
Kudos to Brian Tulloch of our very own FantasyCPR for pointing this out last night –
The Dodgers have a ton of power through the top of that order and I refuse to believe that Anibal Sanchez is going to be a real thing in 2018. It will just shatter everything I think I know about baseball and I’ll need to start from scratch. Our friend/nemesis Joc Pederson is still very affordable across the industry and I fully expect him to get a zero if I play him. You’re welcome in advance. Sanchez could come back to Earth in a hurry and that might start tonight. Cody Bellinger is still under $4,000 on FanDuel and he’s been a monster lately. I don’t think I’ll pay the premium for Matt Kemp unless I stack the whole Dodgers team.
Dodgers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, Yasmani Grandal
Secondary Options – Yasiel Puig, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner
Dodgers Probable Starer – Alex Wood, LHP
4.48 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 23.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .268 average, .265 wOBA, 15.8 fly ball rate and 32.8 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .230 average, .294 wOBA, .36.2 fly ball rate and 39.5 hard contact rate
There’s about a zero chance that I’d play Wood tonight since the Braves are one of the best offenses in baseball against left handed pitching. I’m still going to wind up leaving any left-handed batters off my roster today. Wood has controlled them from a standpoint of fly balls given up in a major way. The only Braves hitters in consideration for cash games for me are Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson. Past that, this would be a great spot to stack Braves. All the attention has go towards other offenses on the slate and this should be very low owned. I love the Braves lineup but Wood being so good against the handedness of lefties has to give you some pause. This should be a fun little slate after Morton gets locked in as pitcher.
Braves hitters to Target
Elite Options – Ozzie Albies
Secondary Options – Dansby Swanson
Home Run Pick – Chris Taylor
DFS MLB Early FanDuel Sample Lineup
P – Gio Gonzalez
C/1B – Francisco Cervelli
2B – Cesar Hernandez
3B – Kris Bryant
SS – Jordy Mercer
OF – Starling Marte, Aaron Altherr, Mike Trout
Utility – Adam Eaton
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I’m reluctantly playing Gonzalez at the pitcher spot but easily could change my mind here before lock. At east he’s the most expensive so if we change, it’s easy to get the job done. I do have a mini Pirates stack but it totals just $8,300 so it’s not eating up much of my budget. Bryant has seen his price slowly come down and he’s got to leave the yard sooner or later. We attack Brent Suter with a couple of reasonably priced Phillies and that lets us fit in Mike Trout. I’d rather lose with Trout than risk not playing him on a five game slate. I have Eaton in there to illustrate just how much of a lock he is if he plays. Frankly, FanDuel made a mistake here. A player like Eaton should never be minimum when they get close to a return. It’s just a free square at this point.
The Core – Kris Bryant, Adam Eaton, Jordy Mercer
Stacks to Consider – Pirates and Cubs game stack, Nationals(vs San Francisco), Angels(at Minnesota)
DFS MLB Main FanDuel Sample Lineup
P – Charlie Morton
C/1B – Max Stassi
2B – DJ LeMahieu
3B – Johan Carmago
SS – Amed Rosario
OF – Giancarlo Stanton, Brandon Nimmo, Joc Pederson
Utility – Max Muncy
It’s pretty difficult to possibly fit in whatever offense you want and this one would likely get tweaked a little bit. The easiest path is to drop Stanton since he’s so pricey but he’s really hitting well lately. A punt at third base and shortstop make’s everything else work. The Dodgers are a good mix of in a good spot and cheap enough to still fit other bats. I still feel like I’m too light on Coors but maybe the lineup cards smile upon us later tonight.
The Core – Charlie Morton, Max Stassi, Joc Pederson, Brandon Nimmo
Stacks to Consider – This sounds like a cop out but the only two offenses that I don’t want a lot of exposure to is the Mets and Rangers.
As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.