DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Sunday, June 10

Welcome into the Sunday edition of the DFS MLB Breakdown article! We have a nice sized nine game slate ahead of us today.

The split DFS MLB slate on Saturday was a mixed bag for us. I rostered Gio Gonzalez against my better judgement and he got worked over. He netted us a whopping seven points on FanDuel and you can’t hang with a chalk Jon Lester with seven points. That was one of the lowest scores of the year so far but the evening was much better. Domingo German and Paul Goldschmidt single-handedly carried us to glory. German especially was impressive after giving up three earned in the first inning and slamming the door after that to log a quality start. Let’s get ready for some afternoon baseball!

DFS MLB – White Sox at Red Sox

White Sox Probable Starter – Reynaldo Lopez, RHP 

3.42 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 16.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .233 average, .319 wOBA, 50.0 fly ball rate and 32.4 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .183 average, .263 wOBA, 44.6 fly ball rate and 27.7 hard contact rate

Playing any pitcher against Boston that isn’t a really good pitcher is generally a fool’s errand and Lopez doesn’t qualify as really good. The amount of fly balls he’s giving up has to be cause for concern today and the number one target for Boston is going to be Andrew Benintendi. Sure, J.D. Martinez is closely behind but I’ll take the hitter on the better side of the splits if I’m spending up for one. It also doesn’t hurt that Benintendi rates a little better than Martinez against Lopez’s three pitch mix of fastball, slider and change-up. If you’re heading towards cheaper options, I’d look towards Mitch Moreland and Brock Holt. Not to brag, but I’m starting to feel like I’m the Holt whisperer. I can’t remember the last time I played him and he didn’t hit double-digit points. Boston is a great stacking option as well.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez, Mitch Moreland

Secondary Options – Xander Bogaerts, Brock Holt, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Red Sox Probable Starter – Rick Porcello, RHP 

3.59 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 22.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .233 average, .324 wOBA, 44.0 fly ball rate and 38.7 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .240 average, .262 wOBA, 25.7 fly ball rate and 22.2 hard contact rate

Porcello has bounced back nicely since his disaster start in Tampa Bay a couple of weeks ago and this spot shapes up to be a solid one for him. The White Sox have a good bit of right-handed bats and the lefties they do have aren’t all that formidable outside of one or two. Yoan Moncada would be the standout play here as he’s a lot better against righty pitching and that’s where Porcello struggles a little bit. The issue is he’s still fairly expensive and has been ice-cold recently. Yolmer Sanchez and Daniel Palka are in the mix here as well but I’m not sure I’m going to force any White Sox in my lineup tonight.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Yoan Moncada, Yolmer Sanchez, Daniel Palka

Home Run Pick – Brock Holt

DFS MLB – Orioles at Blue Jays

Orioles Probable Starter – Alex Cobb, RHP 

6.19 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and 13.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .364 average, .413 wOBA, 32.5 fly ball rate and 34.6 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .304 average, .376 wOBA, 28.8 fly ball rate and 32.4 hard contact rate

He’s still not at the point where I really want to play him but Cobb is continuing to settle in a little bit after his atrocious start to the season. He’s posted a quality start in five of his last seven and he’s still giving up runs. It’s just not always to the extent that we can go nuts on him. There is still opportunity given his struggles against lefty hitters. One of the cheapest hitters to play against Cobb is Curtis Granderson and he’s likely to be very popular.

You could also play Justin Smoak if you’re looking to hit the platoon advantage. One righty I would consider is Randall Grichuk. This was a guy I was excited for in spring training but he was terrible and got hurt. I mentioned he was hot yesterday and he kept it going with another home run. He may have figured something out in his rehab assignment.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak

Secondary Options – Randall Grichuk, Aledmys Diaz, Kevin Pillar

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Marco Estrada, RHP 

5.29 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 17.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .267 average, .357 wOBA, 49.5 fly ball rate and 26.9 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .306 average, .380 wOBA, 55.5 fly ball rate and 35.3 hard contact rate

This could be a rough day for Estrada since the Orioles are righty heavy. However, Baltimore is also so hit or miss that it also wouldn’t surprise me if Estrada cruised to a quality start. Many members of the lineup are going to be just GPP options with the exception of Manny Machado. He’s cash viable for sure and I probably wouldn’t be too worried about playing Mark Trumbo in any format. At least he’s cheap if he doesn’t do much for you. It’s not like Estrada has been a good pitcher but it’s weird his hard contact rates are as low as they are. Given his other metrics, I expected much worse. This really feels like a game where the Orioles are either going to score 12 runs or 2 without much in between.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Options – Adam Jones, Trey Mancini, Danny Valencia, Jonathan Schoop

Home Run Pick – Mark Trumbo

Indians at Tigers

Indians Probable Starter – Corey Kluber, RHP 

1.96 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 27.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .191 average, .234 wOBA, 29.5 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .213 average, .248 wOBA, 29.5 fly ball rate and 36.6 hard contact rate

I’ve been fairly steadfast in not playing Kluber on bigger slates most nights because his strikeout rate has dropped significantly from last season(almost eight full percentage points). Today will be another day in that run because there’s a starter that is $1,500 cheaper on FanDuel with the same upside. This side of the game is easy because there’s not a single Tiger hitter that I would play, even in tournaments. Betting against Kluber doesn’t seem smart whatsoever. Just because I won’t play Kluber doesn’t mean he’s going to have a poor game.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Tigers Probable Starter – Artie Lewicki, RHP 

3.86 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and 16.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .290 average, .326 wOBA, 29.6 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .311 average, .346 wOBA, 31.4 fly ball rate and 48.6 hard contact rate

There’s really no reason to play Lewicki because it doesn’t appear he’s going to go deep into the game and he’s in a poor matchup. I’m not really going to take the splits here as gospel because the sample size is so small. The big guns are all over $4,000 on FanDuel and if you want a piece of the Cleveland offense at a more reasonable price, Jason Kipnis and Yonder Alonso are both hitting well over .300 the past 14 days. Having those guys hit well is not good news for the rest of the American League and Lewicki has a massive challenge in front of him. The Indians are a prime stacking option and you might be able to fit in Alonso, Kipnis and one of the big names. I might side with Edwin Encarnacion in that case.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley

Secondary Options – Jason Kipnis, Yonder Alonso

Home Run Pick – Edwin Encarnacion

DFS MLB – Padres at Marlins

Padres Probable Starter – Clayton Richard, LHP

4.67 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 19.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .222 average, .260 wOBA, 7.5 fly ball rate and 29.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .261 average, .361 wOBA, 24.3 fly ball rate and 41.3 hard contact rate

Maybe I’ll mis the points parade but I can’t stomach rostering Marlins hitters today against Richard in Miami. They’re in a massive park and Richards gives up virtually no fly balls. The strikeout rate is nothing to write home about but I think Richard could be in play for GPP entries. He might not have a ton of upside but he should hit the 30 point mark without too much of an issue and then you can load up on bats after that. If he can avoid damage from Starlin Castro and J.T. Realmuto it should be a good day for Richard.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Starlin Castro, J.T. Realmuto, Brian Anderson, Lewis Brinson

Marlins Probable Starter – Jose Urena, RHP 

4.60 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 19.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .269 average, .324 wOBA, 30.7 fly ball rate and 43.4 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .246 average, .302 wOBA, 29.5 fly ball rate and 42.7 hard contact rate

Man, this game couldn’t be much more unexciting for fantasy and for real life purposes. The lefties appear to be at least mildly interesting for the Padres but Eric Hosmer is overpriced for the matchup. You can look towards Travis Jankowski and he’s cheap enough to have some profit for you. The downside is you’re almost totally reliant on him stealing a base. There’s just too many factors that could work against each offense today. The pitchers are GPP options at best but I think the smartest play today is to pretend this game doesn’t exist. It’s just going to wind up with some ow point totals from your hitters.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Eric Hosmer, Travis Jankowski

Home Run Pick – It’s gross but I guess I’ll go with Lewis Brinson

DFS MLB – Mariners at Rays

Mariners Probable Starter – James Paxton, LHP 

2.95 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 30.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .346 average, .441 wOBA, 31.4 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .169 average, .224 wOBA, 46.6 fly ball rate and 33.9 hard contact rate

When I spoke earlier of a pitcher who had the same upside of Kluber and he was cheaper, it was indeed James Paxton. I know of feel like this is an easy decision between the two. Since the start of May, the Rays have the seventh highest strikeout rate against lefty pitching. They also rank 26th in the league in average, OPS, ISO and wOBA in that span. Tampa is a pitcher’s park and Paxton should be able to cruise through this one with 40 points being around the floor. I’m not going to roster any Rays hitters.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Rays Probable Starter – Nathan Eovaldi, RHP 

3.27 ERA, 0.55 WHIP and 20.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .177 average, .289 wOBA, 35.7 fly ball rate and 35.7 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .048 average, .077 wOBA, 37.5 fly ball rate and 6.3 hard contact rate

The metrics look spectacular for Eovaldi but it’s only been two starts for him so far in his return from Tommy John surgery. I’m not sure if I’d go with a full stack of Mariners but I do have some interest in lefty speedsters today. Dee Gordon and Denard Span are both very reasonably priced and you wouldn’t be relying on a home run to rack up the points. Gordon actually had a stolen base get overturned in the series opener on Thursday. Span hit a homer in that same game and I suspect that neither player would carry a high ownership. Both of those players would be on the “worse” side of the splits but we won’t put a ton of weight in that. I’m likely only heading towards Nelson Cruz or Mitch Haniger for righty hitters in this matchup. Jean Segura is a little too pricey on FanDuel at the very least at $3,900.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Dee Gordon, Denard Span

Secondary Options – Mitch Haniger, Nelson Cruz

Home Run Pick – Mike Zunino

DFS MLB – Cardinals at Reds

Cardinals Probable Starter – Carlos Martinez, RHP 

1.83 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 22.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .174 average, .258 wOBA, 30.8 fly ball rate and 32.9 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .205 average, .283 wOBA, 24.1 fly ball rate and 34.4 hard contact rate

Some players might try to catch Martinez at a low price and lower ownership today but I won’t be one of them. His velocity was down in his last start and manage Mike Matheny said he did that on purpose as he’s working his way back from an arm injury. That’s a giant red flag and I have zero interest given that he’s pitching in Cincinnati. If he’s walking hitters like he did in his last outing, that start can go south really fast with one cheap home run. I also don’t have a ton of interest in the Reds offense because if the real Martinez shows up, he can shut them down. This is a steer clear spot unless you want to take a swing in a tournament with a hitter like Scooter Gennett or Joey Votto. It just won’t be where I’m heading today.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Scooter Gennett, Joey Votto

Reds Probable Starter – Anthony DeSclafani, RHP

7.20 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 25.0 strikeout rate(1 start)

Vs LHH – .333 average, .371 wOBA, 33.3 fly ball rate and 42.9 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .300 average, .408 wOBA, 42.9 fly ball rate and 71.4 hard contact rate

It may have only been one start for DeSclafani but one thing remains true – he can’t get lefty batters out. That means that Matt Carpenter might be one of the best hitters on the slate and will be super chalky in cash games. That’s likely going to be chalk I’m willing to eat because I don’t want to fall too far behind if he goes off. If you need a cheap flier as your last man into your lineup, Kolten Wong fits the bill being a lefty. It’s the same thing that we did Friday night when Matt Harvey pitched. . Wong isn’t usually someone who we would consider but the starting pitcher is that bad against a certain handedness and Wong is so cheap that he enters consideration.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter, Jose Martinez, Marcell Ozuna

Secondary Options – Kolten Wong, Harrison Bader, Dexter Fowler(he got expensive quick)

Home Run Pick – Matt Carpenter

DFS MLB – Brewers at Phillies

Brewers Probable Starter – Brandon Woodruff, RHP 

6.05 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 23.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .340 wOBA, 24.0 fly ball rate and 48.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .262 average, .313 wOBA, 33.3 fly ball rate and 39.4 hard contact rate

Woodruff hasn’t proven to be a good pitcher at the major league level and a popular play is likely going to be Rhys Hoskins. He made his return to the lineup with a bang on Saturday with a three run homer and his price is only $3,000 on FanDuel. I’m not sure how anyone is going to turn away from that type of value in cash games. Other than that, I might stay clear of this side of the game. The Philly offense is struggling badly. A stack might work out in tournaments but it doesn’t seem like the best idea in cash. You could talk me into Nick Williams or Aaron Altherr, whoever draws the start. I would assume it’s going to be Williams since he hits lefty. Odubel Herrera continues to be a solid GPP play because he can’t stay this cold for much longer.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Options – Nick Williams, Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Cesar Hernadez

Phillies Probable Starter – Zach Eflin, RHP

3.74 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 21.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .281 average, .361 wOBA, 50.0 fly ball rate and 34.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .231 average, .281 wOBA, 37.9 fly ball rate and 23.3 hard contact rate

There’s a clear Achille’s heel for Eflin and that’s lefty hitters. I’m strongly considering a three-man stack from the Brewers with Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw and Jonathan Villar. It’s a little hard to not have some recency bias with the first two because I played them on Friday and they combined for over 40 points. That’s not the best way to approach DFS but those two are flat-out good hitters in a positive hitters park. As far as Villar goes, he holds more upside than Wong and is only $300 more on FanDuel. Unless I desperately need that salary, I’d play Villar over Wong in juts about every lineup. I wouldn’t go overboard with righties but Lorenzo Cain and Jesus Aguilar aren’t bad plays in case the Milwaukee offense goes nuts once again. They’ve enjoyed Philly and have scored 12 runs in each of the first two games.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Travis Shaw, Christian Yelich, Jonathan Villar

Secondary Options – Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar

Home Run Pick – Jonathan Villar

DFS MLB – Angels at Twins

Angels Probable Starter – Nick Tropeano, RHP

4.35 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 20.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .303 average, .342 wOBA, 33.8 fly ball rate and 46.5 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .225 average, .334 wOBA, 51.4 fly ball rate and 44.6 hard contact rate

There is a legitimate argument that we’re looking at the best stacking option on the slate since Tropeano scuffles against lefties. The Twins have a lot of lefties and power righties, which profile extremely well when we look at the splits. Most of the Twins are priced up for this matchup but with teams like the Red Sox and Indians in great games, they could go really under-owned. I will likely have a GPP lineup with a Minnesota stack. I’d start it with Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar and Brian Dozier. If we’re looking at the bargain basement plays, Robbie Grossman is actually hitting a lot better over the past 14 days and could be a supreme value. Ehire Adrianza is also a great value in the shortstop slot if you’re not spending up. Tropeano hasn’t been sharp lately and numbers suggest this won’t be the game to turn it around.

Twins Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, Brian Dozier, Max Kepler

Secondary Options – Ehire Adrianza, Robbie Grossman, Miguel Sano

Twins Probable Starter – Fernando Romero, RHP 

3.96 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 21.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .228 average, .290 wOBA, 33.3 fly ball rate and 37.8 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .265 average, .334 wOBA, 28.3 fly ball rate and 39.3 hard contact rate

This side of the game isn’t a much better matchup for Romero than Tropeano. He’s got to face down the Angels lineup that plays a lot of righties and one of them is the best player in baseball. Romero pitched in LA against these Angels about a month ago and he pitched well, scoring 30 FanDuel points. I think that might be the ceiling today. The Angels don’t strike out enough to feel comfortable with Romero as an option today. He’s basically got zero wiggle room for error and if he gets dinged for a couple runs that’s really going to hurt his potential. Mike Trout is a fine play but not someone I’m moving heaven and Earth for. Ian Kinsler has really come alive recently and the price tag hasn’t fully adjusted yet. Justin Upton has been hitting better as of late too but his price is getting up there in a hurry.

Angels Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Mike Trout, Ian Kinsler

Secondary Options – Justin Upton, Zack Cozart

Home Run Pick – Robbie Grossman

DFS MLB – Pirates at Cubs

Pirates Probable Starter – Ivan Nova, RHP 

4.96 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 17.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .339 average, .385 wOBA, 34.9 fly ball rate and 33.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .239 average, .339 wOBA,  22.9 fly ball rate and 36.4 hard contact rate

So Ivan Nova is coming off the disabled list after a ligament issue in his finger issue. He hasn’t pitched in about two weeks and the Pirates are putting him out there after a 30 pitch simulated game with no rehab assignment. That seems like it could blow up in their face and I’m happy taking shots at lefty hitters from Chicago. Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and Ben Zobrist are all pretty attractive options. I have no issue with a Cubs stack in tournaments because Nova looked awful before he went on the DL for a lengthy period. However, if the finger issue was the reason he was pitching poorly, Nova is a groundballer at heart. He can annoy the heck out of fantasy players who loaded up on hitters against him.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist

Secondary Options – Kris Bryant, Ian Happ, Jason Heyward

Cubs Probable Starter – Kyle Hendricks, RHP 

3.59 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 19.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .214 average, .313 wOBA, 39.8 fly ball rate and 30.8 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .238 average, .281 wOBA, 26.8 fly ball rate and 32.6 hard contact rate

While admitting that not playing Jon Lester on the early slate wouldn’t have made me any money, his start yesterday was so deceptive. It looks like he went out and dominated but I’m here to tell you he didn’t pitch as good as his line would indicate. Multiple Pirates hitters just missed connecting on a big hit. I bring this up because it’s reasons like that is why I won’t play Buccos against Kyle Hendricks. The name of his game is limiting hard contact and fly balls and Hendricks is sort of in play. His ceiling is low because the Pirates don’t strike out much as a team. The best play form this game would be to stack the best Pirates hitters and hope for Hendricks to struggle. Past that, this side of the game is better in real life than it is for fantasy.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Austin Meadows, Josh Harrison, Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson

Home Run Pick – Kyle Schwarber

DFS MLB FanDuel Sample Lineup

P – James Paxton  

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C/1B – Mitch Moreland 

2B – Kolten Wong 

3B – Travis Shaw 

SS – Ehire Adrianza

OF – Rhys Hoskins, Christian Yelich, Robbie Grossman

Utility – Matt Carpenter

Taking the step down to Paxton from Kluber allows us to squeeze in a couple bigger bats that we couldn’t use otherwise. Moreland is in a prime matchup and might fly under the radar just a little bit. I really do want to play Villar, but I’m not willing to move another $300 to make it work as things stand. I still made room for Shaw and Yelich, which are some of my favorite plays on the slate. Adrianza and Grossman are both sort of punt plays that have a real shot to have a great game against an average righty on the mound. I’m way too scared to not have Carpenter and I really believe he’s going to be the highest owned hitter today. I don’t want to be on the wrong side of that when he’s in a glorious spot.

The Core – Rhys Hoskins, Matt Carpenter, James Paxton

Stacks to Consider – Boston(vs Chicago White Sox), Twins(vs LA Angels), Orioles(at Toronto) and Cubs(vs Pittsburgh)

Next: MLB DFS Bargain Bin Plays for Sunday

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.