DraftKings PGA: US Open Primer
US Open Course Primer
There are four tournaments on the golf calendar that really get golf – and more notably DraftKings PGA – fans hyped. The US Open is the second grand slam event of the year, and we are truly in for a treat. Shinnecock Hills is set to host the 2018 edition for the first time since Retief Goosen (-4) held off Phil Mickelson (-2) for the 2004 US Open. Oh by the way, those two golfers were the only ones under par for the tournament. Additionally, a +7 would have netted you a top 10 finish in that 2004 US Open. Legend has it that the 7th hole (189 yard par 3) played so difficult that the only option to make par was to land the ball in the green-side bunker, and that flying the green meant bogey or worse. That same 7th green would have to be watered every three groups in the final round – and the ball still wouldn’t hold.
That anecdotal conquest is not meant to terrify those playing US Open Draftkings tournaments. I just want to make sure you know how difficult this course can play. But it’s not 2004 anymore. The 2018 edition of Shinnecock Hills has been given a face-lift. The par 70 course is set at 7,445yards (6.996 yards in 2004), the fairways have been widened (not Aaron Hills wide, but about an average of 15 yards wider than 2004), trees have been removed for more wind, and some rough has been replaced with native fescue. This course is already going to play difficult, and if the winds get greedy we could see a winning score close to par.
Key Stats
The keys stats that I am focusing on this week for DraftKings PGA GPP contests:
Tee To Green: Strokes Gained
Off the Tee: Strokes Gained
Approach: Strokes Gained
Birdie or Better: Strokes Gained
Long Courses – Future of Fantasy stat
Wind – Future of Fantasy stat
Performance on Poa – Future of Fantasy stat
As always, you should be building your own models. FantasyNational.com and FutureOfFantasy.com are great tools to use.
The reason why I chose these key stats is because I believe this course will suit bombers who can strike approaches. The greens are a wash – lighting quick and poa is a poor putter’s best friend. The Future of Fantasy stats are more for tie-breakers and long-term (since 2014) analysis, as I weight 2017 stats above that of past years.
US Open – Golfers to Target
Dustin Johnson $11,700
My model loves Dustin Johnson all across the board. DJ ranked number one in SG:TTG, SG:OTT, SG:BOB, Long Courses, and Poa Greens. Johnson sets up nicely for this course. He has been playing stellar this year (11/12 top 20’s), and he knows what it takes to win this event (2016 US Open Champion). His price tag may be annoying, but he deserves to make your lineup.
Justin Rose $9,900
Rose has been incredibly consistent this year. In 12 PGA events, Rose has 2 victories, 6 top 10’s, and a perfect 12/12 made cuts. Rose is hitting on all cylinders with a 1st and a T6 in his last 2 starts. Rose also pops in every category in my model, ranking top 15 in most categories.
Paul Casey $8,000
Casey shed the “he doesn’t win” moniker this year at the Valspar Championship, another difficult course suited to ball-strikers. Casey is the prototypical “bomber ball-striker” that I am looking for and he pops in every category of my model. At that price I may have him in 100% of my lineups.
Adam Scott $7,900
Full disclaimer, I am not an Adam Scott fan whatsoever. I think his putter is illegal, I am jealous of his good looks, and I was secretly pleased when he was 61st in the world (needed to be 60th OGWR to automatically be invited to the US Open). But he qualified anyways in a tough Cleveland qualifier, and my model absolutely adores the guy. So I have to show him some love here. He is that “bomber ball-striker” that I keep on yammering about. The only category in my model in which he fell short was a pedestrian SG:BOB.
Golfers my model liked a lot, but a little less than these 4 (in order):
$10,000+ (Spieth, Thomas, McIlroy, Day)
$8,000-10,000 (Stenson, Rahm, Reed, Matsuyama)
US Open – Values to Target
Patrick Cantlay $7,700
Cantlay is the type of guy I will be targeting in GPPs – a bomber who can get hot with his irons. His MC at the Fort Worth Invitational (American links course with no trees and a lot of sand) and his sand kryptonite may temper my ownership percentage.
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Tony Finau $7,500
Hallelujah soft pricing! Finau is a favorite of the daily fantasy PGA community, but his ownership may be slightly depressed due to a MC at the St. Jude. Despite his popularity, I am willing to roll out Finau. 7 straight made cuts with 4 top 20’s before the St. Jude, plus he fits my model and the “bomber ball-striker” mold.
Ian Poulter $7,300
If the wind picks up and this course plays like a British Open rather than a US Open, then I need some Poulter exposure. Although he does not bomb the ball, Poulter is an excellent ball-striker and he can get hot with his putter. I love the recent form, and he ranks well in my model.
Brendan Steele $6,800
It’s better not to question the model when a near minimum salary pops. Steele started on a tear, winning his first PGA tournament of the year and amassing a streak of 10 straight made cuts until the Masters. Recent form is nothing to write home about, but he is 51st OWGR and has had success in the past 2 US Opens (2 straight top 15’s). Did someone say “bomber ball-striker?”
Next: DFS Golf - US Open Preview
Best of luck in your DFS PGA contests for the US Open and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your DFS news and analysis across all your favorite sports!