MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, June 10th All Slates

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tout Transparency Report

Before we get to today’s recommendations, we’ll look back at how Saturday’s MLB DFS Bargain Bin play suggestions did in the MLB DFS Bargain Bin Tout Transparency Report.

In the interest of transparency and of tracking trends, I’ll do a quick review after each day in which I suggest value plays to see what went right, and what didn’t exactly work out as planned.

Saturday’s 4pm ET slate plays certainly had their high points, as Danny Duffy, Marcell Ozuna and Eduardo Nunez all managed to generate some nice returns. Duffy especially continues to confound those who roster him with is up-and-down performances, but Saturday’s effort was the product of what I thought made him a tolerable risk – the Athletics’ considerable struggles against left-handed pitching, especially in their spacious home park.

The evening slate brought a bit of scrambling, as two of my remaining suggested plays – Kurt Suzuki and Adrian Beltre – were both announced as out of their respective lineups. I recommend pivots to Tyler Flowers and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, respectively, on Twitter (@jcblanco22). One turned out much better than the other, which we’ll cover next.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tout Transparency Report

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Best Value(s):

Duffy, Ozuna, Flowers headline successes–It’s always a happy occasion when there’s multiple names to mention in this space. Duffy was brilliant against the southpaw-challenged Athletics, posting a season high in strikeouts in the process. Ozuna guaranteed a nice return in his first at-bat, when he added to Luis Castillo’s ongoing struggles against righty bats at home with a solo homer. Meanwhile, Flowers added to his successful track record against Dodgers starter Alex Wood, touching him up for a two-run double and an RBI single.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Biggest Dud(s):

Munoz comes up empty– The Cardinals put up a solid six runs on the afternoon, but Munoz didn’t produce as much as a single against Castillo and several relievers.

Let’s now look at a player-by-player fantasy-point breakdown for each value play I’d suggested for Saturday, June 9th:

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tout Transparency Report

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Pitcher

Danny Duffy, KC AT OAK- Yahoo ($31)/ FanDuel ($6,500)/ DraftKings ($4,800)/ FantasyDraft ($9,400)

Final Line: 7.0 IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 10 K

Fantasy-point return by DFS site: Yahoo (39.6)/FanDuel (61)/DraftKings (36.15)/FantasyDraft (36.15)

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Catcher

*Original suggestion Kurt Suzuki was out of the lineup Saturday*

Tyler Flowers– ATL at LAD- Yahoo ($15)/ FanDuel ($2,900)/DraftKings ($3,600)/FantasyDraft ($7,400)

Final Line: 2-for-4 (single, double), three RBI

Fantasy-point return by DFS site: Yahoo (11.7)/FanDuel (19.5)/DraftKings (14.00)/FantasyDraft (14.00)

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- First Base

Adrian Gonzalez– NYM vs. NYY- Yahoo ($8)/ FanDuel ($2,200)/DraftKings ($3,200)/FantasyDraft ($6,700)

Final Line: 1-for-3 (double)

Fantasy-point return by DFS site: Yahoo (4.2)/FanDuel (6)/DraftKings (5.00)/FantasyDraft (5.00)

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Second Base

Eduardo Nunez– BOS vs. CWS- Yahoo ($11)/ FanDuel ($2,900)/DraftKings ($3,600)/FantasyDraft ($7,600)

Final Line: 1-for-3 (single), walk, stolen base

Fantasy-point return by DFS site: Yahoo (8.4)/FanDuel (12)/DraftKings (10.00)/FantasyDraft (10.00)

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Third Base 

*Original suggestion Adrian Beltre was out of the lineup Saturday*

Isiah Kiner-Falefa– TEX vs. HOU- Yahoo ($7)/ FanDuel ($2,700)/DraftKings ($3,200)/FantasyDraft ($6,500)

Final Line: 0-4, one hit by pitch

Fantasy-point return by DFS site: Yahoo (2.1)/FanDuel (3)/DraftKings (2.00)/FantasyDraft (2.00)

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Shortstop

Yairo Munoz– STL at CIN- Yahoo ($8)/ FanDuel ($2,500)/DraftKings ($3,900)/FantasyDraft ($7,400)

Final Line: 0-4

Fantasy-point return by DFS site: Yahoo (0.0)/FanDuel (0)/DraftKings (0.00)/FantasyDraft (0.00)

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Outfield

Marcell Ozuna– STL at CIN- Yahoo ($16)/ FanDuel ($3,400)/DraftKings ($3,800)/FantasyDraft ($7,700)

Final Line: 1-4 (solo home run)

Fantasy-point return by DFS site: Yahoo (12.0)/FanDuel (18.7)/DraftKings (14.00)/FantasyDraft (14.00)

With our look back now complete, time to turn our attention to finding bargains for today’s slates!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – June 10 Picks and Plays

Welcome to the Sunday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide you with at least one selection that would be considered a “value play” relative to the top-priced players at each position for that particular slate.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about both format and content:

• The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
• Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
• Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft).  However, there are certainly occasions, particularly with Yahoo, where one site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note them as a “XYZ site-only special” underneath the main selection.
• On occasions when FanDuel lists a player at a different position than the other sites, I’ll note it in the player’s entry.
• Depending on the slate, I may recommend only one outfield value option. Again, when sticking to the true spirit of what constitutes a viable value play, the pool of candidates can narrow pretty quickly. I don’t want to forcibly recommend three players in the outfield when I only feel one might be worthwhile, as this would be a disservice. However, if there’s more than one candidate I feel comfortable with, I’ll certainly deviate from that model.
• The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out-of-the-way, let’s take a look at where there’s cash to be saved on Sunday’s MLB slates!:

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – June 10 Picks and Plays

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Pitcher

Clayton Richard, SD at MIA- Yahoo ($33)/ FanDuel ($7,400)/ DraftKings ($7,300)/ FantasyDraft ($14,700)

Richard has produced quality starts in five of his last six trips to the mound, including one against this same Marlins squad on May 30. The veteran southpaw has been a workhorse overall, going between six and eight innings in each of his last six starts.

Meanwhile, the Marlins have produced a paltry .284 wOBA and have struck out 22.5 percent of the time in 142 plate appearances against left-handed pitching at home in the last month of play. They’ve also generated an anemic .098 ISO against that handedness over that stretch, along with a -3.4 RAA that certainly bodes well for Richard.

Finally, the fact that Marlins Park checks in with the fourth-lowest park factor rating (.0823 runs) certainly works in his favor as well, making him a strong value play as a complement to one of the several appealing high-priced options on two-pitcher sites, or as a low-owned pivot on single-pitcher rosters.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Catcher

Brian McCann, HOU at TEX- Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($2,200)/ DraftKings ($3,200)/ FantasyDraft ($6,700)

McCann walks into Sunday’s same-handed matchup against Matt Moore with a successful track record against both the veteran southpaw and left-handed pitching overall.

McCann has touched Moore up for a .600 average with a homer and four RBI over five career encounters, and he owns a .385 wOBA and 21.1 percent line drive rate over 34 plate appearances against lefties thus far this season. Meanwhile, Moore has been decimated by left-handed hitters to the tune of a .516 wOBA, 6.60 xFIP, 2.86 WHIP and 58.1 percent hard contact rate.

It’s also worth noting that Moore’s extensive struggles when throwing his cutter (.481 average,.505 wOBA allowed over a 93-pitch sample) could be a recipe for disaster against the mammoth .682 wOBA McCann owns against the pitch this season, and the .352 wOBA he boasts against it in his career.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – June 10 Picks and Plays

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- First Base

Miguel Cabrera, DET vs. CLE- Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($3,000)/ DraftKings ($3,900)/ FantasyDraft ($7,800)

As I’ve mentioned before, value plays often go hand-in-hand with taking chances. Such is the case with Cabrera on Sunday, as his matchup against Corey Kluber will understandably scare even GPP players off him in droves.

However, there’s some reasons to give Cabrera consideration as a tournament-only flyer. To begin with, he’s got a rare stellar track record versus Kluber that consists of a .383/.422/.733 line with six homers and 12 RBI over 60 career at-bats. That’s certainly much larger than your average batter vs. pitcher sample, giving it a bit more relevance.

There’s also the fact that Cabrera is enjoying a resurgent season at the plate, one that includes a .326 average, 11 extra-base hits (eight doubles, three homers) and a .383 wOBA against right-handed pitching, with the latter figure rising to an impressive .453 when facing that handedness at Comerica Park. Cabrera also owns an elevated 28.6 percent line drive rate and 50.0 percent hard contact rate against righties at home, furthering his case.

Kluber has naturally been a black hole for fantasy production for the most part, but he has allowed 11 home runs overall, as well as a 36.6 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. He’s also allowing a .331 wOBA on his trademark sinker, a pitch that Cabrera has generated a .550 wOBA, .294 ISO and 1.315 OPS against over a 91-pitch sample this season.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Second Base

Yangervis Solarte, TOR vs. BAL- Yahoo ($14)/ FanDuel ($3,100) *listed as 3B*/ DraftKings ($3,800)/ FantasyDraft ($7,600)

The switch-hitting Solarte gets a crack at the vulnerable Alex Cobb, who’s allowed a .417 wOBA and 26.3 percent line drive rate to lefty hitters, along with a 40.7 percent hard contact rate when facing them on the road. Solarte has split his 12 homers evenly between right-handed and left-handed pitchers, even as he’s been a bit unlucky against righties at Rogers Centre with a .212 BABIP.

There’s also some synergy between Cobb’s troubles when throwing his sinker (.330 wOBA, 27.4 percent line drive rate allowed) and Solarte’s success against the pitch (.341 wOBA over his career).

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – June 10 Picks and Plays

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Third Base

Yolmer Sanchez, CWS at BOS- Yahoo ($13)/ FanDuel ($2,700)/ DraftKings ($3,600)/ FantasyDraft ($7,200)

Sanchez carries a solid track record against Red Sox starter Rick Porcello, one that comprised of a .417 average over 12 career at-bats. The switch hitter has also been much better against right-handed pitching, posting a .340 wOBA and 25.7 percent line drive rate versus righties, along with a 32.9 percent hard contact rate when facing them on the road. He’s also sporting a 14.3 strikeout rate against righty arms that’s almost 18 full points lower than his 32.2 percent figure against southpaws.

Meanwhile, Porcello’s one consistent vulnerability has been lefty hitters, especially at Fenway, where they’ve tagged him for a .376 wOBA (including five homers) and a 35.3 percent hard contact rate. He’s also yielding considerably more flyballs to them at home (54.9 percent flyball rate), which has led to a 17.9 percent HR/FB rate.

Also of note is that Sanchez has enjoyed some success against the curve (.331 wOBA, 37.5 percent line drive rate), a pitch Porcello has allowed a .364 average and .404 wOBA on over a 151-pitch sample.

ALSO CONSIDER: Matt Carpenter, STL at CIN- Yahoo ($17)/ FanDuel ($3,700)/ DraftKings ($4,100)/ FantasyDraft ($8,000)

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Shortstop

Marcus Semien, OAK vs. KC- Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($3,300)/ DraftKings ($3,900)/ *Game not available on FantasyDraft* 

Semien isn’t available on FantasyDraft as the 4pm ET and later games aren’t included in their Sunday slate, but given their flexible roster construction, Matt Carpenter can be substituted in the INF position for Semien if desired.

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Meanwhile, the A’s shortstop is priced reasonably across the other three sites and comes in sporting a career-high 31.3 percent hard contact rate this season, while also equaling a career best with a 23.1 percent line drive rate.

He’s boasting a season-high 35.7 percent hard contact rate over his first 32 plate appearances of June as well, and he’ll face a rookie in Brad Keller on Sunday.

Keller has been impressive overall, but he’s allowed a 32.8 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters, along with a 4.26 xFIP over 16.2 road innings.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Outfield

Adam Jones, BAL at TOR- Yahoo ($19)/ FanDuel ($3,300)/ DraftKings ($3,500)/ FantasyDraft ($6,900)

Jones is a tad higher priced on Yahoo relative to the top player at his position (but still discounted) as compared to the other sites, so for those needing a less expensive alternative, Polanco is noted below.

Jones owns a .360 average with two homers and four RBI over 27 career plate appearances against Jays starter Marco Estrada, who also comes in allowing a .380 wOBA (including eight homers) and a 35.3 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Jones counters with a .334 wOBA (including nine homers) and .218 ISO versus right-handed pitching, along with a 25.7 percent line drive rate and 43.7 percent hard contact rate when facing that handedness outside of Camden Yards.

The pitch-split profile also looks highly favorable for Jones on Sunday, considering Estrada is allowing a .431 wOBA, 12.5 wRAA and 30.8 percent line drive rate when throwing his trademark four-seam fastball, a pitch that Jones owns a .366 wOBA (including six homers) against.

Yahoo-only special: Gregory Polanco, PIT at CHC ($12)

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