Welcome to the FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups column for Monday, June 11th 2018. We’re a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you build a DFS MLB optimal lineup for each slate.
After an exciting weekend of baseball, the Monday June 11th 2018 FanDuel MLB Main slate calms things down a bit with only eight games, or 16 teams to pick through. With no game starting prior to 7pm EDT, we only have one slate to focus on today.
Monday also offers the start to several new series, with lots of eye-candy at the pitcher position. But there’s plenty of offensive stacking targets taking the mound as well. We will find a nice balance between a top pitcher pick and hot expensive bats, along with an emerging value play on offense.
Before we get there, a reminder to never take a DFS MLB optimal lineup as ‘bible’ for your personal lineup each day. Use the suggestions as guidance. Also, make sure you follow final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR or me @mattymcmatt17 look for late breaking lineup news.
Weather Note: Five of the eight games today play in a dome. That’s fortunate because there are weather-related issues across the country today. However, the only risk of any delay in the action will be in St. Louis, were rain could slow things down for the Padres and Cardinals.
But we think all games are played today, easily, and we’re giving a green light to play all teams. With weather-related considerations addressed, let’s get to the top pitching options…
FanDuel MLB: Top Pitcher Main Slate
There are some obvious pitcher plays today, and even with several top pitching names on the mound, there will only be a couple of chalky picks.
With an 86 wRC+ and horrendous 27.8% K-rate, the White Sox are a popular target for starting RHP’s in FanDuel MLB. Tonight, Carlos Carrasco ($9,700) is that RHP facing the White Sox in Chicago. In fact, when you look at the White Sox metrics against righties, it’s surprising, at first, that Carlos has such a ‘cheap’ FanDuel MLB salary.
Carrasco has a decent 3.52 xFIP, solid 1.19 WHIP, and a .304 BABIP suggesting he’s settled into the season. However, when you look at Carlos’ game log, we see nothing suggesting his pitching is settled. Carlos has been inconsistent throughout the season.
Carrasco hurled a 14 strikeouts quality start win over the Brewers on May 9th. Carlos pitched nine innings in that game, and piled up 73 K’s. So we know Carrasco has a high ceiling. But Carlos also has seven games with less than 35 FanDuel MLB points, more than half his starts, and three games under 20 points, making him an expensive loser at times.
While Carlos had another great outing against the Brewers last week, ten K’s and 58 FanDuel MLB points, he was also destroyed by the Twins five days earlier, lasting only 3.2 innings and giving up six runs with just two K’s. In fact, Carrasco had a negative point result.
We want to pick Carrasco tonight, but there are some warning signs. We also know some FanDuel MLB players will see the K-rate in the White Sox splits and immediately jump on him, making him chalky tonight. So if there’s another great pick, we’re going to jump on it.
Dylan Bundy ($9,000) has an awesome 27.5% K-rate this season, but he’s also giving up nearly two home runs per nine innings and is hosting a very good Red Sox offensive lineup tonight.
Madison Bumgarner ($8,800) just got off the DL, and we have yet to see if he’s back into his normal form. Although Bum has a solid match up against the Marlins in Miami, and likely will hive high ownership as a result. Still, we want to see more from Madison before we jump on his play. We also may have better options tonight.
So we have several decent options to consider, but after scanning the list of pitcher metrics tonight, we’ve narrowed down our top options to three pitchers. First, our favorite pick tonight is Patrick Corbin ($9,300). His match up may not be as ideal as Carrasco’s, but Corbin has been consistently pitching at an elite level all season.
In 13 starts, Patrick lasted at least six or more innings in ten games. Corbin has seven quality starts in 13 games, so better than half of his mound appearances. Also, Patrick has a 32.7% K-rate, easily the highest of all starting pitchers today.
In fact, Corbin has only thrown under six-or-more K’s once (Dodgers) this season. The only concern is the match up. The Pirates are actually decent against lefties, with a 107 wRC+ and 19.6% K-rate. Still, with Corbin’s metrics and consistent dominance, we’re comfortable calling him the top pitching play.
But, there’s more to consider. Fortunately, if you need a cheaper option tonight, there’s two. Jose Quintana ($8,500) and Jack Flaherty ($7,700) have two great match ups against the Brewers and Padres tonight.
Quintana already has 52 FanDuel MLB points against the Brewers with seven K’s a shut out seven innings pitched, and a win. Flahtery has only thrown in seven starts this year, but has a high 26.1% K-rate and is facing a team who fans over 25% of the time against RHP’s. If the Pirates offense scares you off of Corbin, take the value from either of these two pitchers for your lineup.
FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Main Slate
We did talk about a lot of hot pitching picks tonight, so you have to wonder if there will be any good offensive stacking targets on the mound. Fortunately, there are plenty. Even though Dylan Bundy could be a pitching pick target, it’s also likely several FanDuel MLB players stack the Red Sox against Bundy.
The Red Sox have the best wRC+, 120, against RHP’s this season, and Bundy is giving up nearly two home runs per nine innings. So while they may pile up some K’s tonight, the Red Sox bats could produce a lot of double-digit FanDuel MLB points.
Still, the Red Sox are likely chalky and expensive. For an expensive set of bats, we actually prefer the Indians over the Red Sox. The White Sox seem hell-bent on proving they made a good trade to grab Lucas Giolito, as he consistently struggles in his major league starts.
Giolito has an absolutely horrendous 6.73 xFIP after 12 starts. With a 1.66 WHIP, Lucas is actually walking (13%) more hitters than he’s fanning (10%). Giolito’s home run rate of 1.2 per nine innings isn’t terrible, but it’s not great either. And the Indians bats are also top-ten in MLB against right-handed pitchers like Lucas. So we’re stacking the Tribe tonight.
Another fairly obvious stack tonight it the Giants. However, we think they could be overlooked. Wei-Yin Chen had some decent starts lately, but he’s still giving up two home runs per nine innings in eight starts.
Chen also has a 6.19 xFIP, and similar starts to Giolito’s, just not quite as terrible. Meanwhile, as we saw in D.C. over the weekend, the Giants bats are heating up. And we think we can grab some sneaky options like switch-hitting Alen Hanson ($3,300) at 2B, if in the lineup. Top Giants bats are affordable even the Indians stack and Corbin at pitcher.
FanDuel MLB: Summary and Example Lineup
While we think most of the FanDuel MLB community will be focused on the Red Sox bats tonight, our primary offensive stacking focus is on the Indians, against Giolito, and the Giants, again Chen. Another sneaky, likely off the radar, stacking pick is the Cardinals against Jordan Lyles.
For the pitching pick, we have lots of eye-candy today. Carlos Carrasco has a tremendous match up, and is likely owned in many formats by likes of players. But we’re fading that chalky play for Patrick Corbin. Even better, there are two solid value plays at the position tonight, with either Quintana or Flaherty.
With that summary in mind, here’s a look at a sample lineup for the MAIN FanDuel MLB slate on Monday, June 11th 2018:
FanDuel MLB Main Slate Sample Lineup:
P Patrick Corbin ($9,300)
C/1B Yan Gomes ($2,300)
2B Alen Hanson ($3,300)
3B Jose Ramirez ($5,000)
SS Brandon Crawford ($3,100)
OF Greg Allen ($2,500)
OF Andrew McCutchen ($3,000)
OF Mac Williamson ($2,600)
UTIL Justin Upton ($3,900)
Remaining Salary: $0
Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for today. You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel NHL lineups. We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.
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