This is Germany’s chance to join the greats

Germany enter the World Cup as defending champions and expect to win again this summer.

Franz Beckenbauer, after guiding West Germany to the World Cup in 1990, becoming the second man to win the tournament as both a player and manager in the process, was asked how the reunification of Germany would impact the national team. “We’ll probably be unbeatable for years,” he said.

The quote proved to haunt Germany’s greatest ever player, as Die Mannschaft waited 24 years to win the World Cup as a unified nation. Beckenbauer may yet be proven right, however — just a quarter century later than expected.

Germany transformed their talent development program in the 2000s, and have been reaping the benefits ever since, reaching at least the semifinals of every major tournament since they hosted the World Cup in 2006.

The fact they’ve only won one of those has been cause for some consternation back home, but the consistency is a sign of a program in rude health, as was their Confederations Cup victory last summer with what was essentially a B-team. Die Mannschaft head to Russia expecting to win their second straight World Cup.

The manager

Joachim Low is entering his sixth major tournament in charge of Germany, after taking over from Jurgen Klinsmann following the 2006 World Cup. Low’s position is as strong as any national team manager in the world after victory in Brazil, but it hasn’t always been that way. He was a big departure from the popular and charismatic Klinsmann, and his sideline nose-picking and general stubbornness didn’t win him many fans in the media as he failed to get over the semifinal hump in his first three tournaments.

Over the years, however, appreciation for his quality has grown. Since losing to France in the semifinals of Euro 2016, his focus has been on the future. He gave his senior players a break last summer, taking a squad of youth players to the Confederations Cup, and winning anyway. The decision was a masterstroke. It gave the likes of Leon Goretzka and Timo Werner, who will play a big role in Russia, valuable experience while ensuring the more senior players didn’t enter this summer overly fatigued after so many consecutive summers of tournament soccer.

The Confederations Cup also allowed Low to experiment with new formations. During most of his tenure, Low has used a 4-5-1 formation, but he experimented with a back three last summer, providing himself a level of tactical flexibility his rivals in Russia lack.

The squad

Germany’s strength in depth might be the most impressive of any team to make it to Russia. Low has multiple elite options in almost every position on the pitch, and the flexibility to use multiple formations.

Goalkeepers

Low has said that if Manuel Neuer is fit, he’ll be the first-choice keeper in Russia. That’s a big if. The Bayern Munich number 1 has missed most of the last 18 months, undergoing two surgeries after breaking his foot. Since April 1, 2017, Neuer has played only five games for his club. He started Germany’s pre-World Cup friendlies, but it remains to be seen whether Low was convinced he’s ready to go in a competitive match.

If Neuer isn’t ready, or if he struggles in the group stage, Low will turn to Marc-Andre ter Stegen. The Barcelona keeper is coming off a breakout season in Spain, where he helped his club to a nearly-unbeaten Liga title. Ter Stegen also started during Germany’s successful Confederations Cup run last summer. There may be no better second-choice keeper in the tournament.

Defenders

Mats Hummels and Jerome Boateng form one of the best center-back partnerships in the world at club level, and started together for Germany in Brazil four years ago. They’ve experienced some injury problems over the past couple of seasons — Boateng, in particular, has struggled with fitness — but again, Low has strong options in reserve.

Antonio Rudiger, a key member of the Confederations Cup run and coming off a strong first season with Chelsea, is strong in the tackle and probably the fastest defender in the squad. Mathias Ginter, a member of the World Cup-winning squad in 2014, is the fourth option and, like Rudiger, is coming off one of the best seasons of his career. Also capable of playing capable of full-back, he’ll be a valuable reserve.

If there’s a weakness in the squad it’s at full-back. Joshua Kimmich, till only 23, is one of the world’s best right-backs, while Jonas Hector is a reliable, experienced option on the other side. Hertha Berlin’s Marvin Plattenhardt is the only other natural full-back in the squad, but it’s unlikely he’ll any action in Russia. An injury to either Kimmich or Hector may lead to a change in formation.

Midfielders

If you want to get an idea of how good Germany’s midfield options are, look at the players who will start on the bench: Julian Draxler, Ilkay Gundogan, Leon Goretzka and Julian Brandt. Leroy Sane didn’t even make the squad. The starters are likely to be Toni Kroos, Sami Khedira, Thomas Muller, Mesut Ozil and Marco Reus.

Kroos, Khedira, Muller and Ozil have all been regulars since the 2010 World Cup, and have all won multiple major trophies with their club teams since, while Reus, arguably the best player in the team,  is set to play in his first major tournament with Die Mannschaft after overcoming lingering injury issues.

Between the five of them, Low has an ideal combination of physicality, technical quality and big-game experience. The only real questions are whether Reus can stay fit and which Muller shows up. The Bayern forward has scored 10 goals over his two World Cups, but has failed to score in the past two Euros.

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Strikers

Despite their immense depth of talent, Germany have failed to produce an elite number 9 since Low took over the national team. Muller has been their primary goalscorer since Miroslav Klose retired, but he’s not an out-and-out center forward. In Russia, 22-year-old RB Leipzig forward Timo Werner will get his first chance to prove he can be the man.

Werner has scored seven goals in his last nine games for the national team, and scored 21 goals for Leipzig this season. He also offers the sort of pace in behind Germany have been lacking in recent years. If Werner, and Reus out wide, play to their potential, the attack takes on a whole new dimension.

Werner’s backup will be Mario Gomez. The Stuttgart striker’s international career has been disrupted by injuries. After being forced out of the 2014 tournament, this is likely to be his last chance to represent his country on the world stage. He scored eight goals in the final 16 games of the season and, while he’s a very different player to Werner, he could have a big impact if the youngster struggles.

The verdict

Arguably the most talented squad in the tournament. Elite depth in (almost) every position. The experience of having a won World Cup before. What could go wrong? Germany are bidding to become the first team to win back-to-back World Cups since Brazil in 1958 and 1962. There’s a reason no one’s repeated the feat since then.

Low’s side are talented enough to win the tournament, but, provided the favorites win their groups, they’ll meet an equally talented Spain side in the semifinal. Brazil or France, also equally talented, are favorites to make it the final on the other side of the draw. It’s been a long time since all the World Cup favorites have been so talented.

Against those other sides, will Germany’s 2014 win lead to complacency, or will the experience see them through? If their record under Low is any indication, complacency hardly seems realistic. And they’ll know that a win will cement their status as one of the all-time great World Cup teams, just as Beckenbauer predicted.