Group H preview: The Group of Life
Colombia, Senegal, Poland and Japan will compete in Group H at the 2018 World Cup in Russia. Here’s what to expect from each side.
There’s no clear Group of Death in this summer’s World Cup, but Group H, along with Group A, is one of two obvious Groups of Life. Colombia are the standout team, but they no longer possess the element of surprise that helped propel them to the quarterfinals in 2014, and they’ve struggled in major tournaments since then, failing to score a single goal in the knockout rounds of the Copa America in 2015 and 2016.
Poland, who made it to the quarterfinals of Euro 2016, boast the best player in the group in Robert Lewandowski and perhaps a slightly underrated supporting cast, while Senegal, competing in their first World Cup since their wonderful run in 2002, boast their strongest team in a generation. Even the supposed group minnows, Japan, feature a few important contributors on teams in Europe’s top five leagues.
The top two of the group will face the top two from Group G (Belgium, England, Tunisia, Panama), likely Belgium and England — not an easy draw, but certainly less daunting than one against Germany, Brazil, Spain or even France. Group H may not be the most star-studded in the tournament, but it’s evenly-matched and, as one of only two groups featuring teams from four different FIFA confederations, should present a fascinating clash of styles. Here’s what to expect from each side.
Colombia
Colombia were the neutral’s favorite in Brazil in 2014, scoring the second most goals of any team in the group stage before losing to the hosts in the quarterfinals, partly as a result of an injury to James Rodriguez.
They were young, they were fun to watch, they danced together after their goals and, best of all, no one saw them coming. A perfect World Cup team. That, of course, won’t, can’t, be the case this time around.
Not only have Colombia struggled in major tournaments since Brazil, but they only just about squeaked through South American qualifying (they weren’t the only ones, to be fair) after Brazil beat Chile on the final matchday.
They scored the second fewest goals in qualifying of all five CONMEBOL teams who made it to Russia, and their recent pre-World Cup friendlies, 0-0 draws against Australia and Egypt, suggest goals may be hard to come by this summer.
Rodriguez will be the key cog in an attack featuring Radamel Falcao, rejuvenated at Monaco since the last World Cup, and Juventus’ Juan Cuadrado, while Davinson Sanchez, after a superb season with Tottenham, will lead the defense.
Key player: James Rodriguez
Rodriguez was the breakout star in 2014, scoring six goals on his way to the Golden Boot and earning a move to Real Madrid. It didn’t work out for him with Los Blancos, but he’s coming off an excellent season with Bayern Munich. Colombia will look to him to provide a creative spark.
Biggest question: Can they get Falcao going?
Falcao was arguably the best center forward in the world in his time with Atletico Madrid, before a steep decline that coincided with the 2014 World Cup. Over the past few seasons with Monaco, he’s returned to something approaching his old form. He’s scored over 50 goals in all competitions over the past two seasons, and after failing to find the net in Brazil, will be hoping to make the most of what is likely to be his last World Cup.
Senegal
If it feels like a long time since you watched Senegal at a World Cup, it’s because it has been. The Lions of Teranga haven’t qualified for the tournament since 2002, when they shocked defending champions France on their way to the quarterfinals, the joint best finish of any African side at FIFA’s showpiece tournament.
They cruised through their group in the third round of African qualifying, and boast a strong squad with no obvious area of weakness. Napoli’s Kalidou Koulibaly, Everton’s Idrissa Gueye, Stoke’s Badou Ndiaye and Liverpool’s Sadio Mane form the spine of a team of players who almost all ply their trade in a top five European league.
Recent friendlies haven’t been encouraging — they’ve drawn three in a row, to Uzbekistan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Luxembourg — but if everything clicks at the right time, they have the potential for another fairytale run.
Key player: Sadio Mane
The Liverpool winger went somewhat under the radar this season as Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino dominated the headlines, but he played a crucial role in the most prolific front three in Europe, scoring 20 goals in all competitions. It will be hard for him to have the same impact as the primary attacking threat for his national side, but he’s capable of producing the sort of individual magic often required to win games at this level.
Biggest question: Will the front three click?
Joining Mane up top will be Monaco’s 23-year-old winger Keita Balde and M’Baye Niang, also 23, who played last season for Torino, on loan from AC Milan. Mane is by far the most accomplished of the three, but Balde and Niang are both hugely talented. With a midfield and defense anchored by some experienced old heads, the difference for Senegal between a group stage exit and a potential run to the quarters is whether their front three click at the right time.
Poland
The temptation with Poland, like Portugal and Argentina, is always to reduce them to their star player. Robert Lewandowski, who scored 16 goals in qualifying (Poland’s next highest scorer was Kamil Grosicki, with three goals), is almost good enough to merit that attention.
Given, however, Poland made it to the quarterfinals at Euro 2016 with Lewandowski scoring only a single goal (in the match they ended up losing on penalties, no less), it’s fair to say there’s a little more to them than their star player.
Grosicki and Napoli’s Piotr Zielinksi join Lewandowski in attack, while Lukasz Piszczek and Kamil Glik hold things down at the back. Manager Adam Nawalka used a back four in qualifying, but has tried out a back three in Poland’s recent friendlies.
Whichever formation he opts for in the tournament, expect to see goals. Poland’s qualifying matches featured 42 goals (28 for, 14 against), more than any team in UEFA but Belgium and Germany. They conceded more goals than Montenegro and Romania. Only one of their last 11 matches, a 1-0 friendly loss to Nigeria, featured fewer than three goals.
Recent World Cups have generally been defensive tournaments. Here’s hoping Poland break the mold.
Key player: Robert Lewandowski
Poland aren’t a one-man team, but their star player is far and away their best player. Not only is Lewandowski the best player in Group H, he’s probably one of the five or six best players in the tournament. He scored 42 goals in all competitions this season, and 44 the season before that. His reported interest in a move away from Bayern Munich will only add more incentive to perform in what could very well be his only World Cup.
Biggest question: Can they defend?
Their defensive record in qualifying left much to be desired, something of a surprise given they conceded only twice in five matches at Euro 2016 under the same manager and with many of the same players. If they want to go far in the tournament, they’ll likely have to improve at the back. Then again, their attacking approach wouldn’t be unwelcome at a tournament that has become increasingly defense-focused in recent editions.
Japan
The big news about Japan is that they fired the manager who guided (pushed, might be more to the point) them through qualifying, Vahid Halilhodzic, in April, giving his replacement, Akira Nishino, mere months to prepare for the World Cup.
The decision came in response to Halilhodzic’s abrasive personality and bizarre choice to phase out some of his most talented and experienced players, including Keisuke Honda, Shinji Kagawa and Shinji Okazaki. It’s a wonder he lasted as long as he did, really.
While Nishino has welcomed those players back into the side, it’s a big ask for any manager to get a team up to speed in such a short space of time. The group opener against Colombia will be only his fourth game in charge.
As a result, it’s hard to know what to expect. There’s talent in the squad — Kagawa is a wonderful playmaker, while Okazaki has an exemplary scoring record for his country — but the lack of a coherent tactical plan could prove costly.
Next: The best player on every team at the World Cup
Key player: Shinji Kagawa
Kagawa started only 12 Bundesliga games this season, a sign of how far he has fallen since he left the Westfalenstadion for Manchester United in 2012. And yet he still contributed five goals and an assist. The talent is undeniable, and at age 29, he still has more to offer. This tournament, after all the drama that preceded it, will be a welcome opportunity for the playmaker to remind the world just how good he is.
Biggest question: How will the coaching change impact them?
Will the dismissal of Halilhodzic and the subsequent return of Honda, Kagawa and Okazaki galvanize the squad? Or will they suffer for their lack of preparation? They’re in a relatively forgiving group, but the potential for disaster remains high.