FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups: Tuesday June 12

Welcome back the FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups column. This is the Tuesday, June 12th 2018 edition. We’re a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you build a DFS MLB optimal lineup for each slate.

Yesterday, we talked about how Carlos Carrasco appeared to be the top pick, but we expected Carlos to be chalky. We focused on lineups on Patrick Corbin, Jose Quintana, and Jack Flaherty. Of the four top pitchers, Carrasco was the best option, landing at 64 FanDuel MLB points with eleven K’s in seven innings, earning the quality start and win.

Quintana gave up two home runs, but they were also the only runs in a another quality start earning, but only three strikeouts. Flaherty was the value play we had hoped for, fanning six hitters, only giving up one run, and earning the win and quality start in 6.1 innings.

Unfortunately, Corbin was a flop giving up four in 5.1, and only giving us five strikeouts. The Chalky won the day, but you also could’ve had a great lineup with Flaherty as your starting pitcher last night.

Our stacks were so-so, with better options on the scoreboard. The Indians put up only four runs, lower than we were expecting. But a Yan Gomes ($2,300) play was high value with a double, walk, and two RBI’s for 16 FanDuel MLB points. The Giants only had five runs, but Andrew McCutchen continues to be hot, adding another 21.9 FanDuel MLB points. If you could afford him, Mike Trout had another tremendous game, with over 40 points.

Like last night, all games on Tuesday begin after the 7:05pm EDT time-frame. But, unlikely Monday, every team in baseball is on the field today. That gives us a massive slate of 15 games, or 30 teams to pick through.

There will be several pitching options that work out tonight, and we could get lost finding the right stacks. So we’ll try to focus on the top options, but providing several in case you want to continue to tinker with your lineups as the teams roll them out later today.

Before we get there, a reminder to never take a DFS MLB optimal lineup as ‘bible’ for your personal lineup each day. Use the suggestions as guidance. Also, make sure you follow final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR or me @mattymcmatt17 look for late breaking lineup news.

Weather Note: Considering the rain, showers, and storms we’ve seen in much of the country over the last couple of days, we’re surprised to report that it currently appears no games are at any type of risk of being delayed or postponed. That means, green light to play any game, regardless of the weather.

With weather-related considerations addressed, let’s get to the top pitching options…

FanDuel MLB: Top Pitcher Main Slate

One of the best, and most obvious, metrics we like to focus on for FanDuel MLB lineups at the pitcher position is strikeout (K-rate) ratio. The starting pitcher with the highest K-rate on the mound tonight is Mike Foltynewicz ($9,000).

Folty also has a decent history of going more than six innings, three of his last four starts. But, there are a few warnings signs with this pick. First, while the Mets offense struggles, it’s usually against lefties. Mike is a right-handed pitcher. Against RHP’s, the Mets K-rate drops from 26.3% to 21.4%. That’s a big drop.

So while Foltynewicz has a 28.7% K-rate, this isn’t the best match up. Also, an underrated stat in DFS MLB optimal lineups is innings pitcher per game. Folty actually typically pitches closer to five innings per game, reducing his QS point chances, and lowering his point total over all with less innings pitched points.

For such a high K-rate, 37 FanDuel MLB points-per-game should be higher. We’re not paying up for Folty today, even with this match-up.

The more intriguing game for me is the Rockies playing the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Not quite Coors Field, this ballpark in Philly typically has a higher run total than most games in major league baseball.

Looking at the salaries of the two pitchers, they’re significantly different. Jon Gray ($7,500) has a salary that signals risk, and Aaron Nola ($9,500) is the most expensive pitcher on the slate tonight. Yet, Gray’s 3.21 xFIP is only slightly behind Nola’s 3.20, which is the top two of all starting pitchers tonight.

Also, Nola’s 24.8% K-rate looks solid, but Jon has a better 25.7% K-rate. So what’s creating the price difference? Well, Aaron has a very good 0.96 WHIP and 2.35 ERA. Compared to Gray’s 5.66 EAR and 1.51 WHIP, Nola looks like the obvious pick.

That isn’t too surprising, given Gray has giving up three to six runs in each of his last five starts. However, Jon also has some impressive ten-plus strikeout games this season, and shut out the Angels while they were hot in early May.

Also, the Phillies have a sub-par 90 wRC+ against RHP’s, and a 26.9% K-rate, the highest in MLB. While their run production climbs to around 97 at home, their K-rate is still top-five worst in baseball. So what are getting at? If Gray can keep his run total down to three, he’s very likely to go six to seven innings.

The Rockies have a history of letting Gray sit on the mound, even when struggling. So we have another high K-rate potential from Jon tonight. It’s a risky play, but we could get 50 to 60 FanDuel MLB points from Gray, on a cheap salary.

If you’re looking for safer plays at pitcher tonight, the Padres are facing efficient RHP Miles Mikolas ($9,300) and the Orioles have a tough lefty in Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,500). Of the two, Rodriguez has significant K-upside with a 27.6% K-rate against a struggling O’s offense.

While Mikolas has a low K-rate (18%), he’s been consistent, and efficient, on the mound providing 30 to 40 FanDuel MLB points nearly every game. Of the two, we’d rather go with the K-upside from Rodriguez, but Mikolas is a great safe way to start your lineup tonight.

FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Main Slate

Boy are there a lot of offensive stacks you could target tonight. What likely will happen with our lineup, is that we’ll find one stack we’re stick with, and we’ll use the other four picks to grab top players, or hitting match ups (lefty vs. righty) from other lineups we like

David Hess is starting for the Orioles tonight, and while he has a solid 3.07 ERA, he might be one of the most obvious stack targets. The problem with Hess, is that in a limited five outings, he’s giving up 1.84 home runs per nine innings, and has a high 5.32 xFIP.

Oh, and he’s facing a very difficult Red Sox lineup. They’re expensive, but the BoSox are affordable to stack with a pitcher like Gray on the mound tonight.

With a similar 5.08 xFIP, James Shields is a popular stacking target, again, this season. Shields and the White Sox continue to host the Indians, whom we liked last night. Fortunately, ownership of the Indians will likely drop with more options on the board tonight, and after a four-run flop last night. But we think moving away from the Indians offense is a mistake, especially with this match up.

We’re not seeing the type of run production we’d expect from the Diamondbacks in Chase Field. Maybe it’s the humidor, but Trevor Williams actually might have a decent match up tonight against the D-Backs.

But, Williams likely has trouble with some lefites in the lineup, like Jon Jay ($3,200) and David Peralta ($3,100). Jay has been leading off lately, and Peralta is crushing the baseball in that fifth lineup spot.

If you’re focused solely on home run rates, Brewers Chase Anderson and Indians Adam Plutko lead us to stacking the Cubs or White Sox. The two starting hurlers are giving up around around two home runs per nine innings this season, and each lineup has some big bats.

FanDuel MLB: Summary and Example Lineup

We didn’t talk about the Giants offense in Miami or the Cardinals offense hosting the Padres today. But Brandon Crawford ($3,400) and Marcell Ozuna ($3,600) are each red-hot lately. In a night were you could stack a long list of teams, we’re likely picking one stack and making sure we have these tow in our lineup. Along with Crawford and Ozuna, we’ll likely add two pitching match-ups, like lefties against Williams in Chase Field.

We really like Jon Gray‘s K potential today, but he’s a super risky play. For GPP’s, Jon is a great way to go, and if you really want to load up on offense for cash games, he’s still in play. But the safer picks at the pitcher position are Mikolas and Rodriguez. Foltynewicz has the most K upside, but we don’t love his match up, even though many FanDuel MLB players will.

With that summary in mind, here’s a look at a sample lineup for the MAIN FanDuel MLB slate on Tuesday, June 12th 2018:

FanDuel MLB Main Slate Sample Lineup:

P              Jon Gray ($7,500)

C/1B       Yonder Alonso ($3,600)

2B            Erik Gonzalez ($2,500)

3B            Jose Ramirez ($5,200)

SS            Brandon Crawford ($3,400)

OF            Greg Allen ($2,900)

OF            Jon Jay ($3,200)

OF            David Peralta ($3,100)

UTIL         Marcell Ozuna ($3,600)

Remaining Salary: $0

Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for today. You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel NHL lineups.  We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.

Next: MLB DFS Game by Game Breakdown

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