Can Tiger Woods win the 2018 U.S. Open?

A look at Tiger Woods’ chances of winning the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills.

For the first time in three years, Tiger Woods is back at the U.S. Open and the question lingers: Can he actually win?

Oddsmakers certainly think so, as he’s right near the top of the list of favorites alongside guys like Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas, who just so happen to be the top two players in the world and just so happen to be the two guys that Tiger is paired with for the first two rounds at Shinnecock Hills.

Think anybody will be following that group?

So how do we actually look at this question on whether or not he can win the U.S. Open? Before I get to that specifically, it needs to be addressed that there are still plenty of people out there saying that TIger Woods won’t officially be “back” until he wins again. I asked the “Is Tiger Woods really back?” question a few months ago after he nearly pulled out a victory at the Valspar Championship, coming up just a shot short of Paul Casey, who nobody was beating that day. To save you the suspense, Tiger Woods is back and he is going to win again. That’s just going to happen.

Outside of some minor discomfort at the Memorial, the 79-time PGA Tour winner has been pain-free during this latest comeback from back surgery, which now sits at 10 full events, and has certainly shown that he can compete with these young guys. He’s finished 12th or better in half of those events so to all the people saying that he’s embarrassing himself (yes, those are tweets that are out there)….just stop it. You’re only embarrassing yourself. See how I flipped it?

While he hasn’t quite been able to put everything together for four consecutive rounds, which is difficult to do for anyone, we’ve seen the brilliance that has won him 14 major championships. Look no further than the 10-under stretch he shot over the weekend at The Players Championship last month or his recent Friday-Saturday run at Jack’s place for that. But since we’ve come around to those 14 major championships, let’s go ahead and get into the U.S. Open.

It’s crazy to think that it’s been 10 years since Tiger Woods won that 14th major championship, which just so happens to have an anniversary this week. Who can forget that gutsy performance in 2008 at Torrey Pines when he won his third U.S. Open title? Oh yeah, he did it with a broken leg. I don’t care how many times I watch that putt on the 18th on Sunday that got him into the playoff with Rocco Mediate; it just never gets old. The “Expect anything different?” call from Dan Hicks that day remains one of my favorite calls of all time but it’s a question that comes into play this week, doesn’t it?

The truth is that we almost have to expect something different from Tiger Woods these days. And I say that as someone who just made a point to say that he will win again, which I truly do believe.

But let’s face it. We got spoiled watching him dominate the sport for so many years. Those of us that were lucky enough to witness the Tiger Slam and the countless awe-inspiring moments saw something that’s likely never going to be done again. Whenever Tiger teed it up, we expected him to win and that’s still what a lot of people are doing even today. That’s simply not fair. I addressed this when I wondered if Woods could win The Masters this year and I’ll say it again here. It’s really hard to win a golf tournament, especially a major championship, which is what makes tournaments like the U.S. Open so special.

We should feel lucky that we’ve watched him win this tournament three times and should feel lucky that we even get to watch him compete here again, especially because for a while there we didn’t know if he’d ever play another round of competitive golf.

So back to the original question: Can Tiger Woods win the 2018 U.S. Open? Absolutely. However, it’s going to be very tough for him to do that.

As I mentioned, he’s had an issue with putting everything together for an entire tournament and with this field and this golf course, he’s going to have to be very sharp.

Let’s start on the tee box. When stretched out, Shinnecock Hills can play nearly 7,500 yards. That’s long. But length and power really has never been an issue for Tiger, even today. He’s averaging 304.8 yards off the tee, which is good for 26th on the PGA Tour. Certainly respectable there.

The problem has been his accuracy. If the wind gets going and the long par-4s are playing downwind, Tiger may be able to take advantage of his power and use a 3-wood or those long-iron stingers to put himself in position. However, if he has to continue to use the driver, he may run into some trouble. He currently sits 182nd in driving accuracy, hitting just 54.66 percent of fairways, which knocks him down to a tie for 106th in total driving and that could cause some big numbers in a hurry with U.S. Open rough lurking, even on a links-style course. Some of those issues off the tee is likely why he’s only ranked 99th in greens-in-regulation percentage, which currently sits at 65.69 percent. That number dips by ten more points when he’s not in the fairway so finding the short grass is going to be key for Tiger this week.

However, it should be noted that Tiger has been able to scramble well when missing the green, still making par 63.81 percent of the time, good for 22nd on the PGA Tour.

However, the biggest hurdle that Woods may have to overcome this week is his putting. Long known for being one of the most clutch putters in the history of the sport, he’s coming off his worst putting performance of the season at the Memorial, not something you want coming into a U.S. Open.

Tiger hit the ball very well but he took himself out of the running with the short stick. A three-putt from Tiger Woods is usually a rare thing but he did so five times at Muirfield Village. In addition, he missed 15 putts from inside 10 feet and five from four feet.

Three-putts are going to happen at the U.S. Open, especially at a track like Shinnecock Hills. The last time the tournament was played here in 2004, all but five players in the field had at least one. One of those was winner Retief Goosen, who was out of his mind on the final day with 11 one-putts. Nobody is expecting that but keeping the strokes to a minimum is always a good thing. Of the last 10 U.S. Open champions, nine of them have averaged one three-putt or less per round. Brooks Koepka had just one last year at Erin Hills. As it usually happens, Tiger’s best finishes this year have come when he avoids three-putts and where he finishes this week will rely heavily on that.

While stats are always going to play a part in the outcome of a golf tournament, there’s always that other factor to consider as well. Who’s going to want it come Sunday afternoon on the back nine? That’s what always set Tiger apart from the field. He seemed to want it more than everyone else and then just went out there and took it. The U.S. Open is different than any other golf tournament in the world and he knows how to win it. If he’s playing well, he can win this golf tournament. So maybe he will and maybe he won’t. What we do know is that Tiger Woods is finally back at the U.S. Open. The spotlight is on and fair or not, he’s going to get more attention and more scrutiny than anyone in the field.

Expect anything different?

Next: 2018 U.S. Open preview: Predictions, picks & upsets

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