FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups: Wednesday June 13

Welcome back to the FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups column. This is the Wednesday, June 13th 2018 Early Only and Main slate edition. We’re a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you build a DFS MLB optimal lineup for each slate.

Last night’s FanDuel MLB Main slate was an interesting one. We were high on Jon Gray ($7,500) as a risky, buy high-reward, value play in the pitcher position. Gray gave up a big three-run home run early, and you could see the panic from Gray owners on twitter.

But as discusses yesterday, Jon has a history of hiccups, while the Rockies let him stay on the mound to work it out. That’s exactly what happened, and it still paid off. Jon stayed on the mound for six innings, and tossed an awesome ten K’s. If it wasn’t for that home run, Gray would’ve had well over 50 FanDuel MLB points, but for that salary we’ll take 36 points as well.

Jon Jay ($3,200) and David Peralta ($3,100) were lefties bats we really liked against the Pirates yesterday, and they both had great games in what ended up being a great Diamondbacks stacking opportunity with 13 total points.  The two picks, together, had over 50 FanDuel MLB points.

The big disappointment of the night was, again, the Indians. With a decent pitching match up against James Shields and the White Sox, the Indians continue to look flat on offense. All teams go through cold streaks, but the results of this week, so far, lead us to want to fade the Tribe for the rest of the week (until we don’t).

For today’s slate, there are a long list of options. With three games between 12:10pm EDT and 2:10pm EDT, FanDuel MLB has a Very Early Only slate. We took a look at the list of options, and they weren’t great.

But, smartly, FanDuel MLB has also listed an Early Only to start at 3:05pm EDT (later than usual). This was a smart move because the Early Only slate is popular, and the list of games and match ups is more attractive. For this article, we’ll focus on the Early Only slate, as well as the Main slate which begins after 7pm EDT.

Before we get there, a reminder to never take a DFS MLB optimal lineup as ‘bible’ for your personal lineup each day. Use the suggestions as guidance. Also, make sure you follow final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR or me @mattymcmatt17 look for late breaking lineup news.

Weather Note: There is some probability of showers and storms in the Atlanta, New York, Philly, and Baltimore area. However, at worst those games are delayed. That could put the pitcher plays at some risk for the Braves, Mets, Red Sox, Orioles, Nationals, Yankees, Phillies, and Rockies.

However, each of those risks seem minor (less than 50%). So we recommend assuming all of the games will play through, but keep an eye on weather alerts for those areas throughout the day, in case they change. We’ve seen that happen a few times this spring and summer. With weather-related considerations addressed, let’s get to the top pitching options…

FanDuel MLB: Top Pitcher Early Only Slate

With only three games in this slate, we only have six pitchers to consider. Yefrey Ramirez ($5,500) sticks out like a sore thumb. Five of the six pitchers in this slate, all have an xFIP of 3.58 or lower. Ramirez hasn’t pitched yet this season, so we really have little to go by, other than his minor league stats. Given recent history from call-ups, his minor league stats won’t help us much. Especially considering the Red Sox match up for the young 24-year-old hurler.

Ramirez is an interesting GPP, if you love going extremely high risk with a high reward in GPP.  But for most other formats, he’s an obvious fade. That leaves us with five pitchers who have a 1.27 WHIP or lower, 4.08 ERA or lower, 20%+ K-rate, and four of the five are only giving up about one home run per nine innings.

So, what in the world do we do? Well, play Chris Sale ($11,300) Early Only and often today. Sale’s 33.9% K-rate easily sets himself apart from the other starting pitchers in this slate. While Chris struggled against the Astros and Braves recently, he was facing hot offenses and he bounced back with a strong eight inning, ten strikeout, performance against the White Sox last week.

The Orioles may only have a 22.3% K-rate against left-handed pitchers this season, but they also have an 83 wRC+, second only to the Mets as the worst hitters against lefties in MLB. Also, the Orioles don’t always play against a lefty as dominant as Sale, so we should expect to see their strikeouts on the high-end of that average. We’re not making an argument for any other pitcher today, in this slate, go with Sale.

FanDuel MLB: Top Pitcher Main Slate

The Main FanDuel MLB slate offers a wider array of pitching talent starting on the mound tonight. There are plenty of pitchers to avoid with this pick, like Matt Boyd ($7,000), Jason Hammel ($7,300), Tyler Anderson ($5,900), and Eric Lauer ($5,500). All four have the worst xFIP of this slate, three of for have a horrendous WHIP, and they all have a low K-rate.

But, much like there Early Only slate, there is still a strong stable of starters to pick through. The most obvious is Gerrit Cole ($11,800) who seems to be lightening in a bottle since being traded to the Astros, from the Pirates, last season.

Cole has an insane 37.8% strikeout rate and very low 2.68 xFIP. Cole’s WHIP is also an incredibly low 0.84. So it’s no surprise Gerrit is averaging around 51 FanDuel MLB points-per-game. In most slates, we’d jump all over Cole, but there are some concerns in comparison to other starters tonight.

For one, while Cole’s K-rate is incredible, he hasn’t piled up more than 9 K’s in his last six straight starts. As a result, most of his outcomes have been more toward the 30 to 40 FanDuel MLB point range. That isn’t the result you’re paying for at $11,800.

Still, with the right match up, Gerrit is a great pick. Which presents the second problem tonight. Cole is pitching against the Athletics in Oakland. The A’s are quietly efficient against RHP’s, with a 104 wRC+ and .421 slugging percentage. So it’s likely Gerrit has a less than 50 FanDuel MLB point result today.

This is what lead us to landing on Trevor Bauer ($10,200) as our top pitching pick instead. Trevor is giving up a low 0.52 home runs per nine innings after 13 starts. His WHIP is a very solid 1.15 and he has a 3.15 xFIP, third best tonight. But the most appealing part of Trevor’s pitching lately is the 30.3% K-rate.

Sure, Bauer’s strikeout rate is below Cole’s for the season. But in his last five starts, Trevor has ten or more strikeouts in four games. That includes a 13-K event against the Astros, when Buaer put up 49 FanDuel MLB points in 7.1 innings. Even better, the White Sox have a 24.5% K-rate against RHP’s, eight worst in baseball. So with this match up, and salary, we’re going with Bauer in all formats.

FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Early Only

One of the obvious stacks for this slate is the Red Sox against the young 24-year-old moving into the bigs from Norfolk today. But the stack will be incredibly expensive to do with Sale, and you need to diversify your lineup with at least three teams anyway.

So we’ll likely grab a cheap play like lefty Jackie Bradley Jr. ($2,800) against the right-hander, to take advantage of some value in their lineup. From there, we’re looking at other games to stack, fading the Orioles, of course, against Sale and the Red Sox.

But in this slate, the hitting options are limited. Stacking the Diamondbacks after their offensive onslaught yesterday is a tempting option. But the Diamondbacks have a 79 wRC+ against RHP’s this season, and it doesn’t get better at home. Worse, they have a 25% K-rate (sort of making a case for Taillon at pitcher).

And Zack Grinke facing a cold Pirates offense makes the Bucs unattractive as well. We initially considered fading the Mariners and Angels because Garrett Richards and Marco Martinez are each having decent years. But, both offense have some hot players in their lineups.

If it’s at all feasible, we’re going to spend a good part of the day trying to figure out how to plug Mike Trout ($5,400) into our lineup with Sale. It’ll be easier to know if it’s possible once lineups are released. We could also pay down to Justin Upton ($3,700) against the lefty. And Jean Segura ($4,100) is finally getting expensive, after a long value ride. Dig for value in these lineups today, and plug one or more of these guys into your lineup with Sale.

FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Main Slate

You may recall back to the Main Slate pitching discussion, we immediately faded Lauer, Boyd, Hammel, and Anderson. While we’re fading all four of those arms, we’re not necessarily targeting them for offensive stacks.

But Lauer is pitching against the Cardinals today in St. Louis. We mentioned yesterday about the hot bat from Marcell Ozuna ($3,900) and we’re poised again to play Ozuna tonight. Some of the Cards picks are expensive, like Jose Martinez ($4,400) at first base or Tommy Pham ($4,000) in the outfield. But there is also value in picks like Yairo Munoz ($2,900) at shortstop.

With so much offensive talent in the Cards lineup, and some value plays, they’re attractive against a low xFIP pitcher. But the big reason we like this stack is the 1.6 home runs per nine innings we’re getting from Eric, on the mound for the Padres. That is the general theme for our stacking targets tonight, home runs.

So who else is giving up a lot of long-balls? Cole Hamels is really struggling this season, with a 4.28 xFIP. Hamels has a solid 1.24 WHIP and 3.86 ERA, but he’s giving up an astounding 1.93 home runs per nine. Meanwhile, the red-hot Dodgers offense faces Cole and the Rangers in L.A. tonight.

The Dodgers have some expensive picks, but they’re surprisingly affordable against the southpaw. They have a 104 wRC+ against LHP’s, 12th best in baseball. Yet players like Justin Turner ($3,200), who is battling some injury issues, Joc Pederson ($2,800), and Yasiel Puig ($3,400) are fairly cheap. Pederson may not get the start tonight because of the lefty-on-lefty match up, but he’s hot. So we may see Joc in, although if he isn’t, stick with the theme here in your Dodgers stack.

Finally, Tyler Mahle and the Reds are in Kansas City again tonight facing the Royals. Again, the Royals have some very cheap, but very productive, hitters in their lineup like Salvador Perez ($3,300) and Whit Merrifield ($3,200). And Mahle is giving up 1.7 home runs per nine with a WHIP over 1.4. So, we’re getting several affordable and productive hitters making Bauer and easy play at pitcher.

FanDuel MLB: Summary and Example Lineup

For the Early Only, there is a plethora of great pitching talent on the mound this afternoon. We’re going to assume the O’s rookie Ramirez struggles against the Red Sox today, and pay up for Sale as the top pitcher option.

On offense, we like stacking the Angels and Mariners, playing each other in Seattle this afternoon. But mixing in some Diamondbacks or Red Sox is also a smart move. If we can afford it, we want Trout, Upton, or Segura in our lineup with Sale.

For the Main slate, Gerrit Cole is tempting, but we think Trevor Bauer is the better play at the pitcher spot. While Bauer is expensive, we have plenty of value picks in the Dodgers, Cardinals, and/or Royals stack tonight.

With that summary in mind, here’s a look at a sample lineups for the MAIN and Early Only FanDuel MLB slates on Wednesday, June 13th 2018:

FanDuel MLB Early Only Sample Lineup:                          FanDuel MLB Main Slate Sample Lineup:

P              Chris Sale ($11,300)                                               Trevor Bauer ($10,200)

C/1B       Albert Pujols ($3,300)                                            Salvador Perez ($3,300)

2B            Jose Fernandez ($2,200)                                       Whit Merrifield ($3,200)

3B            Kyle Seager ($3,500)                                              Justin Turner ($3,200)

SS             Jean Segura ($4,100)                                             Yairo Munoz ($2,900)

OF            Mitch Haniger ($3,400)                                         Marcell Ozuna ($3,900)

OF            Guillermo Heredia ($2,100)                                 Joc Pederson ($2,800)

OF            Jabari Blash ($2,200)                                             Yasiel Puig ($3,400)

UTIL        Jackie Bradley Jr. ($2,800)                                    Ryan Goins ($2,000)

Remaining Salary: $100                                                        Remaining Salary: $100

Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for today. You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel NHL lineups.  We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.

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