Miami Dolphins: Offseason Fantasy Football Outlook
NFL rosters are mostly set at this point and it’s time to start figuring out how the Miami Dolphins will shake out for the 2018 fantasy football season.
Get set for our Miami Doplphins Fantasy Football Outlook as we dive right into the Dolphins offeason and look forward to the upcoming season. The Dolphins finished 6-10 last season and weren’t even close to sniffing the playoffs. The season started off horribly as quarterback Ryan Tannehill tore his ACL in training camp. Bringing Jay Cutler out of quasi-retirement didn’t exactly work out for Coach Adam Gase. Miami finished 28th in points per game and it might have had something to do with Cutler giving about as much effort as we do on the couch, watching the games.
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Even with the struggles they had, Miami possibly unearthed a fantasy gem in running back Kenyan Drake, who finished the season very well. Not many teams saw as many high profile changes on the roster that Miami did this offseason. The offense has a lot of new pieces to integrate and parsing through everything that happened is key to fantasy success when targeting Dolphins players for 2018.
Coaching Changes – Former coordinator Clyde Christiansen is out, Dowell Loggains is the new offensive coordinator
Loggains is a familiar face to Adam Gase as he was the quarterbacks coach in Chicago when Gase was the offensive coordinator. The early reports have pegged Loggains as more of a game planner and overseer and Gase will continue to call the plays on game day. The weaponry these two are working with is a little questionable, but the defense might not be that good. Miami could wind up chasing points and even if the offense isn’t efficient, they have some potential. This is a very important season because Gase’s reputation as an offensive guru is starting to be questioned just a little bit. Loggains shouldn’t have any significant effect on the 2018 offense.
Impact Departures – Quarterback Jay Cutler, wide receiver Jarvis Landry, center Mike Pouncey, defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh, running back Jay Ajayi was traded during the 2017 season
Impact Arrivals – Running back Frank Gore, wide receivers Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson, defensive end Robert Quinn, guard Josh Sitton
Impact Draft Picks – Defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick, tight ends Mike Gesicki and Durham Smythe, running back Kalen Ballage
There’s a lot of big names that were just thrown out there. The Miami offense lost a good running back, a great wide receiver and a key offensive lineman since the middle of last season. It’s a little hard to envision either Amendola or Wilson taking over the Jarvis Landry role. Maybe they both combine for that production, which is fine for the Dolphins in real life. Their going to be annoying to predict for fantasy production every week. Suh might not be exactly the player he used to be but he leaves a gaping hole through that defense. It’s hard to see how they got any better on that side of the ball, even though they were unwilling to pay Suh his bloated salary anymore.
The draft for the Dolphins was very interesting. They were rumored to be on the hunt for a quarterback in the first round as reports suggested they might try to trade up. That never came to fruition and they must not have been very high on Josh Rosen or Lamar Jackson if they really wanted a quarterback. Both players could have been had as the Cardinals moved up for Rosen and Jackson wasn’t taken until pick 32. Miami then used their second pick on a mountain of a man in Gesicki and snagged intriguing running back prospect Ballage late.
Miami Dolphins: Offseason Fantasy Football Outlook
Quarterback – Ryan Tannehill, Brock Osweiler, Bryce Petty
The Dolphins had better hope Tannehill and this knee are fully healthy this year because they have about zero depth behind him. As far as Tannehill goes, there’s a possibility he could provide some sneaky value as a streamer or in two quarterback leagues. He actually does have a top 10 finish under his belt, albeit in 2014. Coincidentally, that’s more recent than the last time Josh Gordon dominated for the Cleveland Browns, but that’s a discussion for another time.
The supporting cast around Tannehill isn’t all that great but they seem to be in position to accumulate a lot of garbage time points this year. The roster is worse than it was last year and they only won six games. Tannehill is basically free in a regular one quarterback league as his ADP doesn’t even rate on fantasyfootballcalculator.com and he’s going behind players like Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson, who might not even start this year. This is a make or break season for Tannehill. While he still has too much dead money left on his contract next season to be released, he won’t go into the season without competition if he plays poorly this year. Tannehill is a bargain where he’s going in drafts and if he doesn’t play well, you can cut him without hurting your team. He’s a perfect all reward and no risk gamble in 2018.
Running Back – Kenyan Drake, Frank Gore, Kalen Ballage
I want to love Kenyan Drake but the coaches in Miami have to love him first. The Dolphins have gone out of they way to talk about how the running back position is an open competition. It’s also important to realize that even that Drake closed the 2017 season in excellent fashion. Once Week 12 hit, he racked up 91 carries, 444 yards, 17 receptions, 150 yards and two touchdowns. So what happened Week 12 that gave Drake this new role? Damien Williams didn’t play another snap for the Dolphins due to injury. That’s why I’m concerned about Drake at his ADP(RB20 in PPR and standard). The coaches didn’t trust Drake until they had no other choice. They then turned around in the offseason and added two more running backs.
I have a very difficult time sinking a third round pick into a back that has to constantly fend off other players and can’t get a stamp of approval after the way he closed the season. That performance should have locked in Drake as the guy in this backfield. Gore didn’t come to Miami to never carry the ball. Miami ran the ball 360 times last year, dead last in football. If they don’t dramatically increase their attempts and Ballage is taking some passing work, how much meat on the bone will be left for Drake? In fantasy football, it’s not enough to love a player’s talent. If he’s not getting the opportunity for sustained fantasy production, you have to be aware of that. This situation will need to be monitored and if you’re drafting now, I’d rather have Ravens running back Alex Collins and Washington running back Derrius Guice who are right around Drake in ADP.
Miami Dolphins: Offseason Fantasy Football Outlook
Wide Receivers – DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills, Danny Amendola, Albert Wilson
We’re already getting puff pieces about how hard DeVante Parker is working this offseason and I’m sick of hearing it in June. We heard the same thing last year and Cutler compared him to Alshon Jeffery, which shot up his ADP to about the fifth round. He proceeded to fall on his face again and is going roughly 40 picks ahead of his more productive teammate, Kenny Stills. Here’s how they stacked up in 2017 –
Parker – 96 targets, 57 receptions, 670 yards and 1 TD
Stills – 105 targets, 58 receptions, 847 yards and 6 TD’s
They have been at almost the exact same level of production as far as yards and receptions in 2016 and 2015. During those two seasons, Stills has 12 touchdowns to seven for Parker. Stills is only a few months older than Parker on top of that. There’s virtually no reason Stills should be going so far behind Parker in drafts. He’s been the more productive player for three seasons running on the same team. Maybe Parker winds up fulfilling his potential but I won’t be a part of it. I’m taking Stills later every time. He’s also an elite target for best ball leagues as Stills has a tendency to be boom or bust.
As I said earlier, Amendola and Wilson will likely be the shot and intermediate targets while Parker and Stills work deeper. Amendola should be a PPR asset as long as he’s on the field. The issue is he’s always banged up and may not see the field a whole lot. Albert Wilson is a receiver to keep tabs on through the preseason. He got better in every season with Kansas City and eclipsed 40 receptions for the first time in his career last season. If he overtakes Amendola and is the new “Jarvis Landry”, he’s a steal for fantasy this year. Tannehill has always been partial to the possession receiver when he’s played.
Tight End – A.J. Darby, Mike Gesicki, Durham Smythe
The reason I included Smythe as an impact draft pick is because the scouting report suggests his best attribute is blocking. That’s a great thing for Gesicki because that can help get him off the line of scrimmage and into passing routes. Gesicki can’t block and is an athletic mismatch against linebackers and can out-muscle safeties and corners. He’s my number one rookie tight end in dynasty formats with a bullet point. However, rookie tight ends tend to struggle to acclimate to the NFL. As excited as I am for the long-term future, the odds are very long for Gesicki to make a fantasy impact this season. Put him on your watch list after the draft and be ready to pounce if he bucks the trend.
Miami Dolphins: Offseason Fantasy Football Outlook
Defense/Special Teams and Kicker
While the Dolphins did bring in Robert Quinn via trade and they spent a very high pick on Alabama standout defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick, it’s hard to say they improved this unit that finished 25th in fantasy points last year. Quinn and Cameron Wake do form a nice pass rushing duo and there might be games where they rack up the sacks. They would be a lot better if Suh was still there in the middle wreaking havoc and doing his thing. Past the very top end defenses, most owners stream on a week to week basis to pick on the bad offenses. There’s little interest in the Dolphins at this juncture.
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Cody Parkey was the kicker for Miami last year and the Dolphins drafted Jason Sanders in the 7th round of this year’s draft. Parker finished outside the top 20 last year. There’s little incentive to take a rookie kicker on a potentially bad team. If the Dolphins are trailing late, they’ll be gunning for touchdowns and not kicking field goals. Also, petition your league to stop using kickers and add another flex position. There is no skill in picking a kicker every week. I will proudly fly the #NoKicker flag on Twitter all season this year.
Sleeper – Kenny Stills, wide receiver – The man is just being disrespected right now. He finished as a top 30 receiver last season and Jarvis Landry is not there to suck up 26.7 percent of the targets in the offense. Stills should see a few more targets and is going outside the top 50 of receivers in PPR and standard! Maybe he doesn’t win you a league and he’s not the sexiest pick but he provides insane value at his current ADP. You can take him a full two or three rounds earlier than his ADP and still get a very handsome return.
Bust – Kenyan Drake, running back – Man, this one just hurts me to say. I’m 100 percent sure that Drake is a talented back at the NFL level and he should be getting at least 65 percent of the work in Miami. He’s also the prime case right now of why it’s important to pay attention through the offseason. Teams speak the truth in their draft picks and free agency signings. For some reason, they are not convinced Drake is the starter in this offense. I won’t draft a back in the top 20 that could be in an ugly three-man committee on a very average offense.
Overview – Miami is kind of all over the map here. Tannehill is going to be a lesser version of Balke Bortles in 2015 and 2016 when all his production came when the Jaguars were trailing. Tannehill is the new garbage man of points but it doesn’t matter when they come, as long as the pints are there when the clock hits zero. Drake is talented but doesn’t seem to have the trust of the coaches at this juncture. Hopefully that changes the closer we get to the season. I’m letting anyone else take Parker and gobbling up Stills. With Mike Gesicki in the fold, the offense has some athletic guys in the passing game. The Dolphins are a bit of an unknown, but many of the pieces are going late enough in drafts that it won’t kill your team. Take your shots late and hope Tannehill and Gase can make it all work.
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