MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday June 13
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Tuesday’s MLB DFS slate was quite successful for Picks and Pivots as the core build was set around a Dodgers stack against Bartolo Colon with a Mike Trout one-off and two high K arms in Lance McCullers Jr. and Jon Gray. The Dodgers went absolutely off for double-digit runs with Joc Pederson, Max Muncy and Yasiel Puig all hitting homeruns at minimal ownership across each and every contest I played. I actually liked the Dodgers stack so much that I played the FantasyDraft late slate for the first time since they started rolling it out (kudos FantasyDraft) and stacked six Dodgers (including all three that homered) with Mike Trout (who hit 2 more homers) and took down a late slate tournament. Fun fact – had I played that exact line-up on the Main Slate I would have swept all the main GPP’s FantasyDraft had to offer – go figure!
We have some BIG news at Fantasy CPR as we are now looking for PAID writers to join our team to write about fantasy sports. Seasonal or DFS, any sport you want – get your voice heard and get paid for talking fantasy sports. Apply today HERE!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS: Early Slate Pitching:
The four game early slate on FantasyDraft starts off at 2:10PM EST with the Cubs and Brewers and takes is through the 4PM EST Angels/Mariners game and might be one of the most straight forward pitching slates we will have all season long.
Chris Sale ($26.8K) is a must play on a short slate like this in my opinion as his slate leading K ability against an ice-cold, strikeout happy, Orioles line-up should put him in position to set the cash line on his own as the highest owned player on the slate. Now, you can look back at his earlier season start against the Orioles when he had a “pedestrian” 8K, 1 ER outing over 5 innings and argue that kind of line could be replicated by others (which may be true) but that is the floor for a guy like Sale and the double-digit K ability is something no other arm on this slate has. This is a spot where you simply find a way to pay for him and move on – the contest sizes on FantasyDraft especially aren’t large enough where you are competing with 20,000 people on a four game slate so the game theory angle really does not apply here – play the man.
Zack Greinke ($17.9K) is the logical pivot off Sale and I would argue becomes the top SP2 on a slate where paying up for both arms may be the best strategy. Greinke at home is just a totally different level of pitcher and this trend is something we have seen now for two seasons in Arizona so we cannot even argue that it is all humidor induced! This season, Greinke has a 1.64 ERA at home versus 5.91 on the road, with a .6 HR/9 rate at home versus 2.57 on the road while his K rate remains in the 25-26% range. In 2017 we saw similar numbers from Greinke with a 2.87 ERA at home versus 3.65 on the road while his K rate spiked drastically from 23% on the road to 29% at home.
Within the context of this slate, Sale and Greinke are the clear top strikeout arms as they rank 3rd and 23rd in baseball this season in terms of K rate, the two top marks on this early slate. It should not shock anyone that Sale and Greinke also are facing opponents with the two lowest projected run totals so this looks like a spot where paying up for both arms is the logical cash game strategy and with their un-matched K upside, I would argue it makes sense to take the same route in tournament play.
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Options on Early Slate:
This Mike Trout guy is good at baseball and I am going to keep playing him. I brought this up yesterday in regards to Trout’s insane numbers in SAFECO – In 64 games in Safeco, Trout has an absurd 18 HR’s, the most of any visiting ballpark in his career, while sporting a .329 average and .672 slugging percentage – and all he did was go out last night and hit 2 HR’s, his second straight game with 2 dongs! I know the price is high at $11.3K on FantasyDraft and it becomes a challenge to fit in Trout with the high-end arms we want but this is another spot, like Sale, where I will make fitting him in a priority and will work to build around him rather than fade this spot.
Rather than play a popular Trout as a one-off, I will look to stack the Angels today against LHP Marco Gonzales. Now Gonzales has actually been quite good against RHB this season, limiting them to a 29.8% HC rate with only a .119 ISO but when you look up and down this Angels line-up you have four hitters over the last two seasons with .200+ ISO’s against LHP in Mike Trout, Zack Cozart, Ian Kinsler and Justin Upton.
Gonzales is a high GB arm against RHB (45% GB rate versus only a 28% FB rate) which means you want to target the high fly ball hitters in this line-up and there are some interesting punt plays in this Angels line-up outside of the big four mentioned above that could fit the bill here. Chris Young ($5.1K) has a 45% fly ball rate against LHP the last two seasons while Jabari Blash ($6.3K) has a 41% FB rate with a massive 48% HC rate against LHP the last two seasons and each batter could provide some salary relief and an under-owned way to differentiate around Trout today.
My gut instinct today is to simply anchor to one offense and go all-in on this short slate and I will likely find ways to max stack the Angels with up to 6 batters on FantasyDraft, using the value plays to make this roster build work. However we will still need to find value elsewhere to make this work and thankfully with day games after a night game, we could see some funky line-ups with bench players drawing the rare start. For example – could the Cubs opt to get Tommy LaStella ($4.6K) into the line-up against Jhoulys Chacin to attack his weakness versus left-handed batters? How many right-handed batters will the Brewers roll out against LHP Mike Montgomery – meaning guys like Manny Pina ($5.9K) or Hernan Perez ($6K) could crack the line-up.
The reality is, we have no single team with a run total on this slate over 5 so there is not this “must-have” hitting spot we need to get exposure to. My perspective is simply that I must find a way to get Mike Trout in and will build a stack around him with the cheap Angels batters who all hit left-handed pitching well. Keep an eye on the line-ups and grab 1-2 value pieces and call it a day.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
More from FanSided
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
SP: Chris Sale ($26.8K)
SP: Zack Greinke ($17.9K)
IF: Tommy La Stella ($4.6K)
IF: Ian Kinsler ($7.4K)
IF: Zack Cozart ($6.6K)
OF: Mike Trout ($11.3K)
OF: Justin Upton ($8K)
OF: Chris Young ($5.1K)
UTIIL: Jabari Blash ($6.3K)
UTIL: Hernan Perez ($6K)
Slate Overview: On a four game slate I simply see no reason to get cute – you play the two best arms in Sale and Greinke who have the highest K upside, lock in Mike Trout and go from there. My goal is to plant my flag with one offense and try to go all-in and hope that is the one stack that goes off. If we get some funky value line-ups then we could alter our approach and I will say – watching the line-ups on this early slates and not getting married to your initial build is critical – you need to stay flexible and watch for value that comes up as the usual starters get a day of rest.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Pitching:
After getting Chris Sale on the early slate, we have Gerrit Cole ($25.8K) and his slate leading 37.8% K rate which is second only to Max Scherzer in all of baseball this season. Cole will take on Oakland for the third time this year after dominating them (and seemingly everyone else) in his first two outings:
- At Oakland: 6 IP, 9 K’s and 1 ER
- In Houston: 6.2 IP, 12 K’s and 3 ER
Whenever we have an ace on the mound you need to sell me more on why I should pivot off him rather than simply lock him in and in the context of this slate, I see no reason to make that move. The next best arms from a strikeout perspective are Trevor Bauer and Caleb Smith, solid plays for sure but what exactly are you saving the salary for – we do not have a single game total of 10 or higher so there is no Coors Field spot we simply have to load up on which for me means I would rather lock in the top arm with the elite K upside and simply fill in around him.
Nike Pivetta ($14.7K) is one of the reasons I think you lock in Cole as your SP1 as I can target a high K arm like Pivetta at a low salary while still having more than enough room leftover for bats. Pivetta may not be an arm that most consider an elite K option but this is a guy with 30% K rate against right-handed batters this season and he will take on a Rockies line-up that is primarily right-handed. The Rockies strike out at a 24% clip this season against RHP and Pivetta has been nasty at home this season with a 31% K rate in Philadelphia (versus only 22% on the road) and against right-handed batters that number at home is Cole/Sale level 35.7%!
I say this all the time but K’s are King in MLB DFS and pairing Cole with Pivetta gives you a high ceiling to build around while also keeping over $7.4K remaining to fill out the rest of your line-up which makes this a nice high-low strategy in both cash games and GPP’s.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Hitting:
If you do not think that the late games get over-looked on these larger slates by the majority of the DFS community than let me submit to you the ownership of some of the Dodgers last night in the $25 Home Run GPP on FantasyDraft – Grandal (6%), Kemp (6%) and Joc (2%). These were batters with a team total near 5 facing off against Bartolo Colon and people just keep over-looking them – but not me, they have been red-hot lately, printing me money and I am going right back to it again today against Cole Hamels.
Hamels on the season is giving up a .235 ISO and 47% HC rate to right-handed batters and you have four guys at the top of this Dodgers line-up with high ISO’s against LHP the last two seasons. Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Matt Kemp and Enrique Hernandez all have .180+ ISO’s against LHP the last two years with Turner (.292) and Hernandez (.279) leading the pack while all of Kemp, Turner and Hernandez are sporting 38% or higher HC rates against southpaws. The beauty of the Dodgers is that the stack is SO cost-effective as you can get these four hitters for an average cost of $7.6k per batter and with their 4.32 run total, they could easily get over-looked again.It would seem likely the Dodgers give Grandal a day off which means Austin Barnes ($5.5K) will likely draw the start as a nice salary saving option but also do not ignore Max Muncy ($8.2K) in the L/L match-up as even in a small sample size, this is a hitter who is sporting a .409 ISO aith a massive 50% HC rate. Basically what I am saying – stack the Dodgers again and count all the moneys.
Outside of the Dodgers, I would look to go home run hunting with your other bats with my favorite one-off play being Rhys Hoskins ($7.2K) against LHP Tyler Anderson. Over the last two season, Hoskins as a .287 ISO, 59% FB rate and 40% HC rate against LHP and Anderson this season is giving up a .210 ISO with a 34% HC rate and 42% FB rate which sets up perfectly for Mr. Hoskins. Looking at pitch types, Anderson throws a 91 MPH fastball over 40% of the time, a pitch Hoskins has a .429 ISO against with an average exit velocity of 92 MPH and distance of 376 feet. I am calling my shot with a Hoskins bomb tonight.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
More from FanSided
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
SP: Gerrit Cole: ($25.8K)
SP: Nick Pivetta ($14.7K)
IF: Chris Taylor ($8K)
IF: Justin Turner ($7.5K)
IF: Kike’ Hernandez ($6.8K)
OF: Matt Kemp ($8.4K)
OF: Max Muncy ($8.2K)
OF: Rhys Hoskins ($7.2K)
UTIL: Austin Barnes ($5.5K)
UTIL: Joey Gallo ($7.7K)
Slate Overview: With Cole and Pivetta locked into my builds I believe I have elite K upside and the pricing on Pivetta allows me to be able to pay up for bats without much issue. The Dodgers I hope will be over-looked again tonight – I mean if they were low owned against Colon will people really rush to use them against the name value of Cole Hamels? I hope not and I am going right back to it for the third straight night to keep this gravy train rolling.
Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!