DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Thursday, June 14

Welcome into the Thursday edition of the DFS MLB breakdown! We have nine games total and the start times are all over the place so let’s go to work.

Wednesday’s DFS MLB slates were a successful day for us as we hit 50/50s on both the early and main slates. It’s a bummer to not hit tournaments but sometimes that happens. That’s why we play cash heavy here and aim to be consistent. Today brings a weird slate. There are nine games but the Astros game is only available as part of the All Day slate or a tiny two game slate. Why FanDuel goes that route when baseball has late swap is beyond me but here we go with the eight games that you can realistically play today!

DFS MLB Early – Giants at Marlins

Giants Probable Starter – Dereck Rodriguez, RHP 

5.25 ERA, 1.83 WHIP and 19.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .286 average, .342 wOBA, 22.7 fly ball rate and 34.8 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .308 average, .393 wOBA, 44.4 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard contact rate

Rodriguez got absolutely blitzed in his last start against the Nationals and we can fairly say that we have no idea what he’ll look like against the Marlins today. He shut down the Phillies the start before that and we don’t have a track record to fall back on here. Since I have a fairly strong dislike for rotating Marlin hitters, I think you either stack their bats and hope for a second straight implosion from Rodriguez. The best options are the same as they usually are with the Marlins and that’s J.T Realmuto and Justin Bour in one tier and then Brian Anderson and Derek Dietrich one rung below. Bour is the least safe of any but has the highest ceiling other than Realmuto. If Realmuto and/or Bour sit out, you could make the case for Rodriguez as a deep tournament play.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – J.T. Realmuto

Secondary Options -Justin Bour, Brian Anderson, Derek Dietrich

Marlins Probable Starter – Dan Straily, RHP 

4.08 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 17.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .291 average, .404 wOBA, 29.7 fly ball rate and 46.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .185 average, .253 wOBA, 40.4 fly ball rate and 50.9 hard contact rate

Straily has had a couple starts this year where he was very good but they’ve been too few to consider him for cash today. I normally don’t play Andrew McCutchen against a righty but he’s been swinging a hot bat lately and he has a tendency to stay warm for a long period of time. Alen Hanson is also pretty attractive since his price is reasonable. The average and wOBA look good to righties for Straily but the fly balls and hard hit rate tell a different story. Pitching on the early slate is a disaster so I can’t say to completely cross Straily off your list, but I’m not totally confident he can have good results today. You just have to hope the park holds his mistakes.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Options – Alen Hanson

Home Run Pick – Andrew McCutchen

DFS MLB Early – Rockies at Phillies

Rockies Probable Starter – German Marquez, RHP 

4.79 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 21.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .278 average, .348 wOBA, 37.4 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .252 average, .342 wOBA, 28.7 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard contact rate

You know things are going poorly for an offense when I’m actually considering using German Marquez as a pitcher. Philly will have to break out of this slump at some point but they are putrid offensively right now. Over the past two weeks, the Phillies are 29th in average, 27th in OBP, 28th in wOBA and are striking out just a hair under 30 percent of the time. They also just got worked over by Tyler Anderson last night. Things are bad right now and I’m not terribly crazy about using any of their hitters. You can play Rhys Hoskins or Cesar Hernandez but it feels pretty gross right now. If you’re  tournament player, this is a great spot for a Phillies stack. If the flood gates open for them, you should be able to get them at very low ownership.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana

Phillies Probable Starter – Vince Velasquez, RHP 

4.95 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 28.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .286 average, .382 wOBA, 44.9 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .227 average, .282 wOBA, 37.5 fly ball rate and 31.4 hard contact rate

The Rockies really only have two hitters from the left side that you fear. One is Charlie Blackmon and he’s been hitting well lately so that is a concern. The other is Carlos Gonzalez who still has some pop. Past those two, it’s either light hitting Gerardo Parra or a whole bunch of lefties. On a slate like the early one, I’m likely to take more chances since there isn’t a pitcher without some concerns. I’ll take the ceiling play and that’s Velasquez. He got annihilated against Milwaukee, giving up 10 runs en route to a -7 performance on FanDuel. He’s still got talent and some good raw stuff and the Rockies usually aren’t good on the road with a .279 wOBA away from Coors. Their big run total might scare people off but I think Velasquez turns in a respectable day.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Options –Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story

Home Run Pick – Carlos Gonzalez

DFS MLB Early – Twins at Tigers

Twins Probable Starter – Lance Lynn, RHP 

5.08 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and 22.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .289 average, .373 wOBA, 19.0 fly ball rate and 45.6 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .252 average, .325 wOBA, 34.3 fly ball rate and 37.4 hard contact rate

Some players are going to look at the ERA and WHIP and start locking in Tigers. Lynn isn’t the greatest pitcher out there but he’s been much different for almost a month and it’s a trap game for a lot of Tigers hitters. In his last four starts, Lynn has gone 24.2 innings with 21 strikeouts, four earned runs given up, four quality starts and three wins. While I think Velasquez is the tournament play, Lynn might just wind up being my cash pitcher. The Tigers are way worse against righty pitching, ranking 19th in average, 25th in OPS, 25th in ISO and 26th in wOBA. The strikeout rate isn’t very high and I don’t believe Lynn gets more than 5-7 but the floor should be there for him. There aren’t a lot of Detroit hitters I’m looking at today. The switch hitters are mostly better against lefty pitching and Leonys Martin is over $3,000 on FanDuel.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options -Leonys Martin, Nicholas Castellanos, Jeimer Candelario

Tigers Probable Starter – Michael Fulmer, RHP 

4.40 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 20.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .232 average, .322 wOBA, 32.5 fly ball rate and 37.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .262 average, .311 wOBA, 28.0 fly ball rate and 41.2 hard contact rate

If anyone can figure out Fulmer, please let me know because this is a guy I can never get a handle on. He’s really not that great of a pitcher but he has these annoying 40+ point outings against an offense like the Indians sprinkled in that make you think he’s turned a corner. The metrics are all pretty average so I’m sticking with the Twins best hitters against righty pitchers. Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar both have identical .397 wOBA against righties. Ehire Adrianza has been hitting well lately but $3,200 on FanDuel seems like a prime spot for a letdown. My gut is telling me Fulmer gets whacked tonight after controlling the Indians in his last start.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar

Secondary Options – Logan Morison, Ehire Adrianza, Brian Dozier

Home Run Pick – Eddie Rosario

DFS MLB Early – Indians at White Sox

Indians Probable Starter – Mike Clevinger, RHP 

3.31 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 20.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .221 average, .286 wOBA, 35.5 fly ball rate and 32.4 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .249 average, .302 wOBA, 38.4 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard contact rate

I’m sure a lot of people are wondering why Clevinger wouldn’t be my cash pitcher. After all, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer have destroyed the White Sox with strikeouts, surely Clevinger will do the same, right? The rub here is Clevinger is far more expensive and has a lower strikeout rate than Lynn. I’d rather take the extra $1,300 on FanDuel to build an offense than roll with Clevinger. Even Bauer last night was carried by strikeouts, not anything else. The White Sox are likely going to struggle against Clevinger but I’m leaning in a different direction for today’s slate.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu

White Sox Probable Starter – Carlos Rodon, LHP 

3.60 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 28.0 strikeout rate (1 start)

Vs LHH – .286 average, .452 wOBA, 20.0 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .250 average, .316 wOBA, 27.3 fly ball rate and 36.4 hard contact rate

Rodon had himself a very nice showing during his first start in Boston and I think he might be the contrarian play on the short slate. The Indians rank with the top 12 in most of the major offensive categories we typically look at. I’d love to play Francisco Lindor and his .424 wOBA against lefties but $5,000 on FanDuel is steep. I think I might go very light on Indians, especially at the top end. I have some respect for Rodon and think he could have a good game today. Cleveland hasn’t exactly lit up the White Sox pitching in this series and Rodon is the most talented starter they’ve seen yet. Both sides of this game are more GPP than cash.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Francisco Lindor

Secondary Options – Jose Ramirez, Yan Gomes, Roberto Perez, Erik Gonzalez(if active)

Home Run Pick – Francisco Lindor

DFS MLB – Rays at Yankees

Rays Probable Starter – Blake Snell, LHP 

2.30 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 27.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .130 average, .173 wOBA, 32.0 fly ball rate and 37.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .207 average, .287 wOBA, 41.1 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard contact rate

New York is the spot of arguably Snell’s worst start of the year but one factor that has changed is the weather. It was brutally cold for baseball during the last start for Snell and he’s in the middle of  a breakout season. Snell is the highest priced pitcher on the slate and he might actually make me break my rule of not usually playing pitchers in Yankee Stadium. It’s a dangerous matchup since the Yankees own the highest OPS, ISO and wOBA in baseball against lefty pitching. You have to take a stand here. Either play Snell and hope he can strikeout enough hitters to be effective or you play three to four Yankees and hope he gets hit hard. If you go the latter route, you want Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge. All three of those players are priced just a little less than normal due to the matchup with one of the best pitchers in the American League. I think Snell gets the job done tonight.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres

Secondary Option -Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge

Yankees Probable Starter – Domingo German, RHP 

5.32 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 26.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .202 average, .289 wOBA, 42.3 fly ball rate and 33.8 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .253 average, .340 wOBA, 35.1 fly ball rate and 42.1 hard contact rate

I played German in his last start and it was a bit of a roller coaster. He was getting roped at the start and gave up three runs in the first inning. German proceeded to slam the door for the next five innings and struck out nine batters for a quality start. The Tampa offense isn’t that much different than the Mets against righty pitching and if you really want to pay for bats, I think German could get you around 35 points today. I’m a little concerned that the Rays don’t strike out enough to make this play worth it. However, it’s a four game slate again. It’s going to force you into decisions that you’re not totally on board with. If you’re playing any Rays, I’d run Wilson Ramos, Willy Adames or C.J. Cron. They” be more of a last man into the lineup than a core player.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – C.J. Cron, Wilson Ramos, Willy Adames

Home Run Pick – Willy Adames

DFS MLB – Padres at Braves

Padres Probable Starter – Tyson Ross, RHP 

3.43 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 24.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .302 average, .364 wOBA, 23.1 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .165 average, .227 wOBA, 32.7 fly ball rate and 41.0 hard contact rate

These splits aren’t exactly gospel but they give us a good starting point. The lefty splits are an Achilles heel for Ross and he’s got to deal with plenty of lefties. The best of the bunch is Freddie Freeman and he has about every factor lining up for him tonight. Not only does Ross have poor splits against lefties, he throws his slider over 44 percent of the time. Take a guess at who the best slider hitter baseball is. That’s right, it’s Freddie Freeman. He’s a lock for me on this small slate with 100 percent certainty. Freeman is scorching hot and is on double dong alert. I usually like Ross a good deal but won’t go there against the Braves.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis

Secondary Options -Johan Carmago, Ender Inciarte, Ozzie Albies

Braves Probable Starter – Anibal Sanchez, RHP 

2.37 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 21.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .196 average, .321 wOBA, 30.0 fly ball rate and 36.7 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .191 average, .266 wOBA, 38.5 fly ball rate and 15.1 hard contact rate

I typically don’t like the Padres bats and the metrics don’t point towards any direction to attack him with tonight. It’s weird that Sanchez looks this good throughout this season but here we are. This is a six start sample size as well so it’s not just a few innings. I won’t be forcing any Padres into a lineup tonight but if I need one or two, I’m going to head towards the lefties. I would side with Travis Jankowski and possibly punt with Corey Spangenberg if he’s active. I can’t get too excited about Eric Hosmer with Freeman and another first baseman in a wonderful spot.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Travis Jankowski

Secondary Options – Corey Spangenberg, Eric Hosmer

Home Run Pick – Freddie Freeman

DFS MLB – Mets at Diamondbacks

Mets Probable Starter – Jason Vargas, LHP 

7.71 ERA, 1.75 WHIP and 18.8 fly ball rate

Vs LHH – .290 average, .417 wOBA, 46.2 fly ball rate and 23.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .320 average, .376 wOBA, 37.3 fly ball rate and 37.2 hard contact rate

If there’s any way to make it work without killing the rest of the lineup, I want to play Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt together. They are expensive but they could both could be the highest scoring hitters tonight. Even though Vargas has been a little better his past two starts, Goldy has been so much better lately and he’s been hammering lefty pitching even through his struggles so far this year. His wOBA is .498 for the season and he’s going to smash in this spot. Baseball can be a fickle game but there’s just no way he ghosts in this matchup. I also have some major interest in Jon Jay because the lefty/lefty matchup doesn’t have any effect on his skills.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Paul Goldschmidt, Nick Ahmed, Ketel Marte, Jon Jay

Secondary Options – John Ryan Murphy

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Matt Koch, RHP 

4.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 13.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .180 average, .253 wOBA, 34.1 fly ball rate and 43.5 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .333 average, .433 wOBA, 36.6 fly ball rate and 47.6 hard contact rate

Don’t get me wrong, Matt Koch is an awful pitcher. Like, his metrics scream that he has regression coming for him in a major way. I’m actually gong to venture to say that he could throw a good game tonight simply because the Mets have a non-existent offense right now. They’re the worst offense in the league for the last two weeks. Koch is sort of better against lefties and that’s the side of the plate that the Mets have the best hitters. Brandon Nimmo is fantastically cheap and he’s a lock for me not matter how you plan to handle Koch tonight. There’s not an outcome from this side of the game that would surprise me. Koch could give up zero or 10 and it would make sense.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brandon Nimmo, Todd Frazier

Secondary Options – Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera

Home Run Pick – Paul Goldschmidt and Brandon Nimmo

DFS MLB – Red Sox at Mariners

Red Sox Probable Starter – David Price, LHP 

4.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 23.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .162 average, .234 wOBA, 34.5 fly ball rate and 20.7 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .239 average, .309 wOBA, 41.1 fly ball rate and 33.7 hard contact rate

I’m not sure if there’s a way to comfortably do it but Nelson run is right behind Goldy and Freeman for the best hitter on the slate. He destroys lefty pitching at home and I don’t think David Price is the pitcher he used to be. Even if Price gives up a bomb to Cruz, he’s in play on this slate because the Red Sox are heavy favorites. This isn’t a spot for a ceiling game for Price because Seattle has a strikeout rate under 20 percent against lefties. If you think Price gets beat up tonight, you can include Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura and maybe even Mike Zunino. West Coast games can sometimes go under-owned and I’m hoping for a way to present itself to get to Cruz as well.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Eilte Options – Nelson Cruz

Secondary Options – Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura

Mariners Probable Starter – Felix Hernandez, RHP 

5.70 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 18.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .241 average, .351 wOBA, 42.2 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .264 average, .340 wOBA, 29.0 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard contact rate

There’s just no reason to play King Felix against Boston tonight because the Red Sox have Mookie Betts back and rolling. Both he and J.D. Martinez hit a home run yesterday and those two can hit anywhere at anytime. The lefty hitters have a better fly ball rate and you can look at Mitch Moreland, Brock Holt and especially Andrew Benintendi. If it appears everyone is on Freeman and Goldy, Betts and Martinez are great pivots. A full on Red Sox stack could be the late night hammer that takes you flying up the leaderboard. Hernandez could easily walk into a buzzsaw tonight with Betts back in the lineup.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Andrew Benintendi

Secondary Options – Mitch Moreland, Brock Holt

Home Run Pick – Nelson Cruz

DFS MLB Sample FanDuel Lineup, Early

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P – Lance Lynn

C/1B – Yan Gomes

2B – Alen Hanson 

3B – Brian Anderson 

SS – Francisco Lindor 

OF – Eddie Rosario, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Gonzalez

Utility – Justin Bour

I’m still feeling comfortable rolling with Lynn because of the offense it lets me build. It would be harder to get to Lindor with Clevinger and would require more of a sacrifice. This offense looks well-balanced on paper and I feel like I’m too heavy on the Marlins game but that’s going to happen no matter what with four games.

The Core – Carlos Gonzalez, Eddie Rosario

Stacks to Consider – Twins(at Tigers), Indians(at White Sox), and Phillies(vs Colorado

DFS MLB Sample FanDuel Lineup, Main

P – Domingo German

C/1B – Freddie Freeman 

2B – Gleyber Torres 

3B – Todd Frazier 

SS – Freddy Galvis

OF – Jon Jay, Brandon Nimmo, Ender Inciarte

Utility – Paul Goldschmidt

I’m struggling to figure out the pitching angle for tonight and German is not locked in by any stretch. I love Freeman and Goldy and would hesitate to give either one up. I’m taking a couple of Mets hitters because I think Koch is a bottom feeder pitcher. Those two Mets can do plenty of damage even if the offense as a whole isn’t good right now. Freddy Galvis is a total punt and Jon Jay and Ender Inciarte have some serious stolen base upside tonight.

Stacks to Consider –  Mets and Diamondbacks game stack, Yankees(vs Tampa) and Red Sox(at Seattle)

Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.