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MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Friday, June 15th Main Slate

By Juan Carlos Blanco

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MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tout Transparency Report for Thursday, June 14 Evening Slate

Before we get to today’s MLB DFS Bargain Bin recommendations, we’ll look back at how Thursday’s MLB DFS Bargain Bin play suggestions did in the MLB DFS Bargain Bin Tout Transparency Report.

In the interest of transparency and tracking trends, I’ll do a quick review after each day in which I suggest value plays to see what went right, and what didn’t exactly work out as planned.

Despite a short four-game slate, I felt there was some solid value to be had in a few spots. Naturally, the Mets’ Jason Vargas and a vulnerable New York bullpen looked particularly enticing, but the D-Backs’ Matt Koch’s metrics against righty bats also made him vulnerable in my view. That game ultimately turned out a bit on the lower-scoring side until David Peralta and Jake Lamb both went deep in the bottom of the eighth, but the Mets’ Amed Rosario came through in a pinch for us with a solo homer.

The Red Sox couldn’t capitalize against a seemingly declining Felix Hernandez, but our two underpriced Mariners bats posted serviceable, albeit unspectacular contributions versus an otherwise highly effective David Price. Across the country and earlier in the night, Matt Duffy was one of few Rays to get to the Yankees’ Domingo German before he settled in and began missing a ton of bats.

And on the pitching side, the Braves’ Anibal Sanchez outperformed the other seven starters on the slate from a fantasy-point perspective, offering the best value of the night against a Padres team that’s become exceedingly easy to target with right-handed pitching.

 

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Best Value(s):

Sanchez deals, Duffy and Rosario swat– Anibal Sanchez continued his surprising start with seven mostly dominant innings, once again helping corroborate the Padres’ utter futility against right-handers. Meanwhile, Matt Duffy wasted no time providing an excellent return with a first-inning homer and adding a single in his second at-bat. Rosario saved his best for last, taking Archie Bradley deep in the eighth to get the Mets within one run at the time.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Biggest Dud(s):

Alternate suggestion Nunez only blanking of the night- I’m glad to report the night was productive overall, as the Red Sox’s Eduardo Nunez – a last-minute suggestion on Twitter (@jcblanco22) with Brock Holt out of the lineup — drew the only “oafer” of the originally suggested or alternative plays.

On to a player-by-player fantasy-point breakdown for each value play I’d suggested for Thursday, June 14th: 

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tout Transparency Report for Thursday, June 14 Evening Slate

Pitcher

Anibal Sanchez, ATL vs. SDP- Yahoo ($35)/ FanDuel ($6,300)/ DraftKings ($5,500)/ FantasyDraft ($10,900)

Final Line: 7.0 IN, 4 H, 6K, 1 Quality Start, 1 Win

Fantasy-point return by site: Yahoo (33.4)/ FanDuel (49)/ DraftKings (29.35)/ FantasyDraft (29.35)

 

Catcher

John Ryan Murphy, ARI vs. NYM- Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($2,600)/ DraftKings ($3,500)/ FantasyDraft ($6,800)

Final Line: 0-for-3, one walk, one run

Fantasy-point return by site: Yahoo (3.9)/ FanDuel (6.2)/ DraftKings (4.00)/ FantasyDraft (4.00)

 

Additional Yahoo/FanDuel/FantasyDraft Twitter suggestion:

Gary Sanchez, NYY vs. TAM- Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($3,200)/ FantasyDraft ($7,400)

Final Line: 0-for-2, two walks, one run

Fantasy-point return by site: Yahoo (6.0)/ FanDuel (9.2)/ DraftKings (6.00)/ FantasyDraft (6.00)

First Base

Ryon Healy, SEA vs. BOS- Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($3,000)/ DraftKings ($3,600)/ FantasyDraft ($7,300)

Final Line: 2-for-4 (two singles)

Fantasy-point return by site: Yahoo (4.2)/ FanDuel (6)/ DraftKings (6.00)/ FantasyDraft (6.00)

 

Second Base

*Original selection Brock Holt was out of the lineup Thursday*

Eduardo Nunez, BOS at SEA– Yahoo ($13)/ FanDuel ($3,000)/ DraftKings ($3,500)/ FantasyDraft ($6,500)

Final Line: 0-for-4

Fantasy-point return by site: Yahoo (0.0)/ FanDuel (0)/ DraftKings (0.00)/ FantasyDraft (0.00)

 

Third Base

*Original selection Christian Arroyo was out of the lineup Thursday*

FanDuel/DraftKings/FantasyDraft Twitter suggestion:

Matt Duffy, TAM at NYY- FanDuel ($2,600)/ DraftKings ($3,300)/ FantasyDraft ($6,500)

Final Line: 2-4 (single, solo home run), one RBI, one run

Fantasy-point return by site: FanDuel (21.7)/ DraftKings (17.00)/ FantasyDraft (17.00)

 

Shortstop

Amed Rosario, ARI vs. NYM- Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($2,100)/ DraftKings ($2,800)/ FantasyDraft ($5,800)

Final Line: 1-for-3 (solo home run), one RBI, one run

Fantasy-point return by site: Yahoo (12.0)/ FanDuel (18.7)/ DraftKings (14.00)/ FantasyDraft (14.00)

 

Yahoo-only special:

*Didi Gregorius was out of the lineup Thursday*

 

Outfield

Nick Markakis, ATL vs. SDP- Yahoo ($16)/ FanDuel ($3,900)/ DraftKings ($4,300)/ FantasyDraft ($8,400)

Final Line: 0-for-3, one walk

Fantasy-point return by site: Yahoo (2.1)/ FanDuel (3)/ DraftKings (2.00)/ FantasyDraft (2.00)

 

Mitch Haniger, SEA vs. BOS- Yahoo ($13)/ FanDuel ($3,700)/ DraftKings ($4,200)/ FantasyDraft ($8,400)

Final Line: 1-for-3 (single), one walk

Fantasy-point return by site: Yahoo (4.2)/ FanDuel (6)/ DraftKings (5.00)/ FantasyDraft (5.00)

 

With our look back now complete, time to turn our attention to finding bargains for today’s slates!

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MLB DFS /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Friday, June 15th Main Slate

Welcome to the Friday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the night’s 15-game ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about both format and content:

  • The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
  • Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
  • Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft).  However, there are certainly occasions, particularly with Yahoo, where one site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as a “XYZ site-only special”.
  • On occasions when FanDuel lists a player at a different position than the other sites, I’ll note it in the player’s entry.
  • This version of the Bargain Bin isn’t a position-by-position breakdown. Rather, I try to identify where there is a particular vulnerability in terms of pitchers on the slate. Naturally, the amount of pitchers I suggest to target and the corresponding amount of value hitters to target them with will vary by slate.
  • The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s take a look at where there’s cash to be saved on Friday’s MLB Slate!:

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Bargain Pitching Spot to Consider

Reynaldo Lopez, CWS vs. DET- Yahoo ($37)/ FanDuel ($6,700)/ DraftKings ($5,900)/ FantasyDraft ($12,100)

No team has been more inept on the road against right-handers over the last month of play than the Tigers, who come into Friday’s matchup sporting an MLB-low .232 wOBA and anemic 42 wRC versus that handedness in a 208 plate-appearance sample during that stretch. What’s more, a substantial portion of those metrics were generated prior to Miguel Cabrera’s season-ending biceps injury.

Meanwhile, Lopez boasts a sparkling 1.85 ERA, .143 BAA, 0.94 WHIP and .226 wOBA over 34 home innings, and an 0.68 ERA over his first two starts of June. He’s been excellent at keeping the ball in the park as well, yielding only seven round trippers over 77.1 innings this season, good for an impressive 0.81 HR/9. While he doesn’t boast very much strikeout upside, Lopez does have four quality starts in his last five trips to the mound (one of which came against this same Tigers squad), and he already owns a 1.29 ERA and .163 BAA against the Tigers over 14 innings across two previous starts overall this season.

Finally, it’s worth noting Lopez has a solid chance at a win, considering Tigers starter Mike Fiers — despite some improved performances recently — tends to have trouble keeping the ball in the park, and the White Sox come in as solid -140 favorites with an implied run total of 4.6 (as compared to the Tigers’ 4.0).

 

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Five Bargain Hitting Spots to Consider

 

Dodgers vs. Giants

Target: Giants SP Derek Holland and Giants bullpen

 

Metric(s) to Target:

Holland: .351 wOBA (including nine homers, seven on the road) allowed to right-handed hitters/ 50.9 percent (27 out of 53 hits) extra-base hit rate allowed to right-handed hitters/ 22.4 percent line drive rate (including 23.8 percent on the road) and 44.2 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters.

Giants bullpen: 5.12 ERA and .327 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters on the road over last month of play.

More from FanSided

 

Dodgers bargain bats to consider:

Justin Turner– Yahoo ($15)/ FanDuel ($3,600)/ DraftKings ($4,000)/ FantasyDraft ($7,500)

Yasmani Grandal– Yahoo ($11)/ FanDuel ($2,800)/ DraftKings ($3,700)/ FantasyDraft ($7,400)

Kike Hernandez– Yahoo ($9)/ FanDuel ($2,700)/ DraftKings ($3,300)/ FantasyDraft ($6,400)

A.J. Ellis (if Grandal out of lineup)- Yahoo ($9)/ FanDuel ($2,300)/ DraftKings ($3,000)/ FantasyDraft ($5,700) 

FanDuel/FantasyDraft-only special:

Chris Taylor– FanDuel ($3,800)/ FantasyDraft ($8,400)

 

Pirates vs. Reds

Target: Reds SP Matt Harvey

Metric(s) to Target:

.406 wOBA (including eight homers) allowed to left-handed hitters, including a.463 wOBA on the road/ 5.47 xFIP allowed to left-handed hitters, and .370 BAA and 1.96 WHIP allowed to left-handed hitters on the road/ 23.8 percent HR/FB rate, 25.8 percent line drive rate and 42.9 percent hard contact rate allowed to left-handed hitters on the road/ 7.20 ERA, .293 BAA (including three homers) allowed over 10.0 innings (two starts) at PNC Park the last three seasons.

 

Pirates bargain bats to consider:

Austin Meadows– Yahoo ($18)/ FanDuel ($3,100)/ DraftKings ($4,300)/ FantasyDraft ($8,500)

Corey Dickerson– Yahoo ($14)/ FanDuel ($2,800)/ DraftKings ($3,900)/ FantasyDraft ($7,200)

Gregory Polanco– Yahoo ($14)/ FanDuel ($3,200)/ DraftKings ($3,700)/ FantasyDraft ($7,200)

 

White Sox vs. Tigers

Target:  Tigers SP Mike Fiers

Metric(s) to Target:

.339 wOBA (including seven homers) allowed to left-handed hitters, including .374 on the road/ 3.38 HR/9 allowed to left-handed hitters on the road/ 33.3 percent HR/FB rate, 24.2 percent line drive rate and 36.4 percent hard contact rate allowed to left-handed hitters on the road.

White Sox bargain bats to consider:

Yolmer Sanchez– Yahoo ($13)/ FanDuel ($2,700)/ DraftKings ($3,600)/ FantasyDraft ($7,300)  

Daniel Palka– Yahoo ($13)/ FanDuel ($2,700)/ DraftKings ($3,600)/ FantasyDraft ($7,200) 

Yoan Moncada– Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($3,200)/ DraftKings ($3,700)/ FantasyDraft ($7,500) 

Rockies at Rangers

Target: Rangers SP Yohander Mendez and Rangers bullpen

Metric(s) to Target:

Mendez: 5.26 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 10 home runs allowed over 51.1 innings (10 starts) at Triple-A Round Rock/ .300 BAA, 1.67 WHIP and 6.34 ERA allowed to right-handed hitters at Triple-A Round Rock. 

Rangers bullpen: 47.5 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters at home over last month of play

 

Rockies bargain bats to consider:

Chris Iannetta– Yahoo ($16)/ FanDuel ($2,700)/ DraftKings ($3,500)/ FantasyDraft ($6,500) 

Tom Murphy– Yahoo ($9)/ FanDuel ($2,900)/ DraftKings ($3,000)/ FantasyDraft ($5,500) 

 

FanDuel/DraftKings/FantasyDraft-only special:

Ian Desmond– FanDuel ($3,400)/ DraftKings ($3,900)/ FantasyDraft ($7,400) 

Phillies at Brewers

Target:  Brewers SP Brent Suter and Brewers bullpen

Metric(s) to Target:

Suter: .304 BAA and .370 wOBA (including six homers) allowed to right-handed hitters at home/ 22.2 percent HR/FB rate, 36.1 percent line drive rate and 41.9 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters at home.

Brewers bullpen: NL-high 47.7 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters at home over the last month of play.

Phillies bargain bats to consider:

Rhys Hoskins– Yahoo ($13)/ FanDuel ($3,900)/ DraftKings ($4,300)/ FantasyDraft ($8,000)

Scott Kingery– Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($2,900)/ DraftKings ($3,400)/ FantasyDraft ($6,800) 

Aaron Altherr– Yahoo ($9)/ FanDuel ($2,400)/ DraftKings ($3,300)/ FantasyDraft ($6,700) 

Jorge Alfaro– Yahoo ($8)/ FanDuel ($2,400)/ DraftKings ($3,100)/ FantasyDraft ($5,500) 

Maikel Franco– Yahoo ($8)/ FanDuel ($2,400)/ DraftKings ($3,400)/ FantasyDraft ($6,800) 

Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots

Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!