MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Friday June 15
Welcome to the Friday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Thursday’s MLB DFS slate was quite odd, especially on the Main Slate, where we had a short slate with awful pitching options but yet we really had no must have offensive spots to build around either. I found myself leading up to lock stacking up the Red Sox and Yankees more on their talent then the match-up and looking back at the slate it is interesting to note that four of the top five scorers were actually pitchers – so no offenses really performed all that well even against a mediocre crop of arms.
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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Main Slate Pitching Overview:
After a day without much pitching to like we get a loaded Friday Night pitching slate where I think you can make the case for up to 10 arms as viable MLB DFS targets. We have three arms priced over $20K on FantasyDraft today with Corey Kluber, Charlie Morton and James Paxton all elite options but sitting right below them is a guy I have used every time out and I am not going to stop today as Ross Stripling ($18.7K) remains an elite SP1 option at a discounted price off the other aces.
Over the last month of baseball, Stripling has a 35% K rate which is third in all of baseball and just behind guys like Trevor Bauer and Max Scherzer and ahead of stud arms like Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom and Stephen Strasburg. Seriously, just look at that list and then realize you’re getting the same K upside with Stripling for a discounted price point off the guys all over $20K today. Stripling checks off literally every single box for me as an SP1 as he is at home as a -220 home favorite against a San Francisco team with a slate low 2.78 projected runs which sets him up as cash game “safe” all while having the strikeout ceiling to make him a high-end GPP target.
Zack Godley ($16.1K) immediately jumped out to me on this slate as the top SP2 target pitching at home in Chase Field with the roof closed against the Mets offense. If Matt Koch can go 6 innings, strike out 5 and only give up 2 ER, how much more upside does Godley have in the exact same spot?
Godley’s overall numbers are not something that is going to jump off the page but it is worth noting he has had significantly more success at home this year verses on the road with a 2.93 ERA versus 6.53 and a K rate of 23.4% versus only 21% away from home. Overall, Godley’s K rate is down from 26% last season to 21% this year and his swinging strike rate is down from 13% a year ago to 11% this season so there are some “red flags” but the price drop on Godley in my mind is already reflecting those reduced metrics.
Yes the Mets scored 3 runs last night, a herculean achievement considering they had scored 15 total runs in the previous 14 days but this is a team that is just completely lost at the plate right now and Godley has already had success against them this year with a 6 IP, 6 strikeout, 1 ER game back on May 18th in New York.
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Options
We may not have a game in Coors Field tonight technically but with the Rockies and Rangers facing off in Texas with 90-95 degree temperatures, we have a very Coors-like 11 projected run total and a great stacking environment with RHP Chad Bettis and LHP Yohander Mendez on the mound.
Let’s start with the known arm in Bettis, who over the last two seasons has surrendered a .200 ISO to hitters from both sides of the plate with a 33% HC rate but with his reverse splits tendencies it has actually been the RHB that have hit him the hardest with the higher exit velocity and distance traveled on balls in play. The results this year very much support that with a .363 wOBA to RHB which means Adrian Beltre ($7.4K) is one of the first guys into any Texas stack on this slate. The interesting thing about Bettis versus left-handed batters is that he has a near 53% GB rate which means we want to target guys with high fly ball rates to balance that out – meaning Joey Gallo ($7.4K) is the preferred option here as he has a 49% FB rate versus only a 31% GB rate so assuming he can make contact here, he has the ability to counter-attack Bettis high ground ball rate where someone like Nomar Mazara ($7.2K) and his 55% GB rate would seemingly play right inot Bettis strengths.
On the Rockies side of this game we get to face off with a complete unknown in LHP Yohander Mendez but by all accounts this is an arm we need to stack up against based off his minor league numbers. In 51 innings at AAA this season, Mendez has a 5+ ERA, surrendering 10 HR’s in those 51 innings, good for a 1.75 HR/9 mark and with only a 17% K rate versus a 10% walk rate – stacking up the Rockies tonight feels like a must!
Nolan Arenado ($9.3K) versus a bad lefty in elite hitting conditions feels like stop number 1 in any build tonight as this is basically a Coors Field lite spot and the price for Arenado is way lower than what we would normally pay for him if the game was in Colorado. You could roll out a four man Rockies stack at the top of the order here with Arenado, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon and DJ LeMahieu here as all four guys have a .200+ ISO against LHP over the last two seasons and you could even extend it to Ian Desmond who has a .261 ISO against LHP this season with a 43% HC rate.
If I am ranking the Rockies here – I would go Arenado, Story, Desmond as each player has a 43% or higher HC rate against southpaws this season with all three having 91 MPH or higher EV’s on balls in play – and against a pitcher that relies almost entirely on a low 90’s fastball that he throws 60-70% of the time, this could be a spot for multiple home runs for the Rockies right-handed power bats.
Another night and another slate I want to stack the Dodgers! With LHP Derek Holland on the mound this is going to be a spot I attack heavily tonight as Holland is giving up a .233 ISO and 43% HC rate to right-handed hitters this season. Matt Kemp ($8.4K) is obliterating LHP this season with a .292 ISO and 51% HC rate and can be easily stack with Chris Taylor and Justin Turner, two bats that have a .200+ ISO against left-handed pitching over the last two seasons. If the last week has proven anything to me it is that the Dodgers go completely ignored in these late games in LA and if this stack will be single digit owned on a slate this large, I want to ensure I at least have a 2-3 man stack as my late night hammer.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
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SP: Ross Stripling ($18.7K)
SP: Zack Godley ($16.1K)
IF: Nolan Arenado ($9.3K)
IF: Adrian Beltre ($7.4K)
IF: Joey Gallo ($7.4K)
OF: Ian Desmond ($7.4K)
OF: Matt Kemp ($8.4K)
OF: Chris Taylor ($8.4K)
UTIL: Trevor Story ($9K)
UTIL: Justin Turner ($7.5K)
Slate Overview: At first glance this looks like a slate to go high-low at SP to ensure you get one of the high K arms and you cna use someone like Godley as your SP2 to free up the salary to stack the bats you want. Personally, I think getting exposure to the Rockies/Rangers here is a must as the prices are not reflective of the hitting environment and the poor pitching and pairing them with a late night Dodgers stack puts you in position to attack some of the worst arms on the slate.
One quick note – I will be taking the weekend off from MLB DFS and Picks and Pivots but do not worry – the rest of the crew at Fantasy CPR will be here to cover all your DFS needs! Have a great weekend and Happy Father’s Day to all the Dad’s out there!
Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and sty tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!