DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Saturday, June 16
Welcome into the Saturday edition of the DFS MLB game by game breakdown! We’re focusing on the eight game afternoon slate today.
Last night was another success even though we had a zero from Rhys Hoskins, one of the most expensive hitters in our lineup. We cruised in cash and got to dip our toes in tournaments for an extra couple of bucks. Nolan Arenado may have been fairly chalky but made up for that with almost 50 FanDuel points. Let’s get into this afternoon.!
DFS MLB – Reds at Pirates
Reds Probable Starter – Luis Castillo, RHP
5.79 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 23.4 strike rate
Vs LHH – .275 average, .366 wOBA, 40.4 fly ball rate and 43.4 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .248 average, .322 wOBA, 29.0 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard contact rate
Castillo is certainly a risky DFS MLB proposition today because he just can’t seem to stop other teams from scoring runs. His strikeouts are keeping him fantasy relevant as his last start highlighted. He gave up five runs across across six innings but he also struck out 10 so he still put up a respectable 33 points on FanDuel. One pitcher on the slate is likely to be over 75 percent owned in cash games but in tournaments, Castillo is worth a look. The Pirates as a team don’t strike out a whole lot against righty pitching at just 19.3 percent of the time. Gregory Polanco is the teams best changeup hitter but he has been dreadful for a long period of time and is $3,200 on FanDuel. I’d likely take the chance on Austin Meadows. This side of the game is GPP only as there’s not a ton of safety to be had.
Pirates Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Austin Meadows, Francisco Cervelli, Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson, Colin Moran
Pirates Probable Starter – Ivan Nova, RHP
4.68 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 19.0 strikeout rate
VS LHH – .336 average, .384 wOBA, 34.5 fly ball rate and 32.8 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – 228 average, .288 wOBA, 21.6 fly ball rate and 36.2 hard contact rate
I want nothing to do with Nova today and think the aReds offense could beat up on him. Struggling against lefties isn’t exactly where you want to be with this Reds offense, who should have at least four lefties that could do some damage. Jesse Winker is the cheapest of the four and we may need that savings. All four of Winker, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, and Scott Schebler have hard contact rates over 45 percent in the last two weeks. They’re also hitting at least .297 in that span and this appears to be a terrible spot for Nova. I don’t think there’s really any need to try and jam righty hitters into your lineup today. There’s also the fear that Nova could have his ground ball game working and ruin the day if you play a bunch of Reds.
Reds Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Jesse Winker, Scott Schebler
Secondary Options – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett (only because they’re over $4,000 and there’s an ace today)
Home Run Pick – Jesse Winker
DFS MLB – Rockies at Rangers
Rockies Probable Starter – Kyle Freeland, LHP
3.68 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 21.5 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .200 average, .267 wOBA, 34.1 fly ball rate and 26.2 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .250 average, .314 wOBA, 35.2 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard contact rate
I don’t think I’m playing him but Freeland really isn’t that bad of a pitcher so far this year. The Rangers also strikeout against lefties at the sixth highest rate in baseball so even if Freeland gave up a couple of runs, he can make up for it with strikeouts. I definitely will not play lefties against him with that wOBA and hard contact rate given up. Adrian Beltre is the hitter that I’d have the most interest in for the game today because the Rangers aren’t loaded with righties that can leave the yard. The other two hitters I would give some though to are Delino DeShields for and Jurickson Profar. DeShields has very little power upside and Profar is the better play even though he’s more expensive.
Rangers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Adrian Beltre, Jurickson Profar
Secondary Options – Delino DeShields, Shin-soo Choo(GPP only)
Rangers Probable Starter – Mike Minor, LHP
5.65 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 19.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .244 average, .321 wOBA, 28.1 fly ball rate and 38.2 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .282 average, .374 wOBA, 48.2 fly ball rate and 42.1 hard contact rate
If there’s a reason to not play the clear number one pitcher, it’s because you’re planning on stacking the same Colorado bats you did yesterday. They came through in monstrous fashion and could be in line for another big day this afternoon. Minor may not be as bad as the jabroni the Rangers threw yesterday but he’s not good either. He’s getting smashed by righties and even though he’s hard to trust, Ian Desmond is only $3,200. That seems way too good to pass up coming off a two homer game. Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story remain super expensive but they score 45+ and 20+ points last night, resepctively. Those hitters destroy lefty pitching and you could finish off a four man stack with DJ LeMahieu as well.
Rockies Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, DJ LeMahieu, Ian Desmond
Secondary Options –Charlie Blackmon, Tom Murphy/Chris Iannetta(only one might be in the lineup)
Home Run Pick – Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado
DFS MLB – Angels at A’s
Angels Probable Starter – John Lamb, LHP
Frankly, I’m surprised that the Angels were even able to find a starting pitcher for today since half their rotation went on the D.L. yesterday. I’m not goin to dive too deeply into Lamb because he hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2016. He’s going into this game as a total unknown quantity. If you’re going to try to stack Rockies and play the ace, the lefty specialists for the A’s could be one of the best ways to do it. Chad Pinder is near minimum price on FanDuel and Mark Canha is also extremely affordable. Marcus Semien also is about as low as we ever see him in salary. Some may run to Khris Davis and that’s a fine play. Just be aware that his wOBA is actually better against righties. Oakland has gobs of potential today.
A’s Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Mark Canha, Chad Pinder, Khris Davis
Secondary Options – Jed Lowrie, Marcus Semien
A’s Probable Starter – Sean Manaea, LHP
3.49 ERA, 0.99 WHIIP and 17.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .215 average, .276 wOBA, 31.6 fly ball rate and 22.6 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .205 average, .280 wOBA, 36.3 fly ball rate and 44.4 hard contact rate
The average against righties looks really good for Manaea but that fly ball rate and hard contact rate are a little scary going against a righty heavy team. If we find a cheap pitcher, I want to figure out a way to include Mike Trout in my lineup today. He’s been scorching lately and has three home runs in 14 at-bats against Manaea in their careers. The only other hitter that I really want is Justin Upton but a cheap bat that might be a necessary evil is Chris Young. He’s more expensive than I like paying but he is coming off a big game in his last start and maybe his bat is awaking up a bit. How heavy I go on this game just depends on roster construction because there’s plenty of good spots to choose from .
Home Run Pick – Mike Trout
DFS MLB – Marlins at Orioles
Marlins Probable Starter – Wei-Yen Chen, LHP
6.13 ERA, 1.64 WHIP and 16.9 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .222 average, .281 wOBA, 40.0 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .282 average, .389 wOBA, 49.0 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard contact rate
Chen has been miserable in his past three starts and we’re going to see which ineptitude wins out – Chen or the Baltimore offense lately. I’m leaning towards the Orioles offense snapping out of it’s funk at least for a game. Manny Machado is on the radar for sure but there are other elite hitters that I value more on this slate. The name of the game is value and Craig Gentry could fit the bill nicely. He’s near minimum price and he’s hit well lately. Now, it’s going to likely be just hoping for a single and a run or two. He’s got very little power but if he makes lineup work, it could be worse. Joey Rickard would also be squarely in the running if he leads off.
Orioles Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Manny Machado, Danny Valencia
Secondary Options –Craig Gentry, Joey Rickard
Orioles Probable Starter – Alex Cobb, RHP
7.23 ERA, 1.77 WHIP and 14.2 strikeout rate
VS LHH – .383 average, .453 wOBA, 34.1 fly ball rate and 34.8 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .317 average, .376 wOBA, 27.5 fly ball rate and 32.5 hard contact rate
Speaking of things not going well for pitchers, we arrive at Alex Cobb. He got smoked last time out against the Blue Jays when he gave up nine runs. The Marlins represent some excellent value to make the big guns work and they draw a very positive matchup. Derek Dietrich and Lewis Brinson are two of the better value pieces we’ve found to this point. They’re both super affordable and Dietrich bats lefty which makes him super appealing. If you’ve read this article frequently, you know that I have a policy of almost never playing Marlins hitters. The combo of going up against Alex Cobb and needing cheap lineup fillers can’t be ignored today.
Marlins Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Justin Bour, J.T. Realmuto, Derek Dietrich
Secondary Options – J.T. Riddle, Lewis Brinson
Home Run Pick – Derek Dietrich
DFS MLB – Nationals at Blue Jays
Nationals Probable Starter – Max Scherzer, RHP
2.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 38.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .197 average, .281 wOBA, 54.0 fly ball rate and 30.2 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .140 average, .184 wOBA, 37.8 fly ball rate and 34.2 hard contact rate
Now we have finally arrived at the ace of the slate and I’m assuming that he’s going to be highly owned(although I could be wrong). Scherzer is quite simply one of the best pitchers on the planet and my mission is Scherzer and at least two Rockies bats in cash games. That’s not going to be the easiest but it just might be feasible with the right punts. I’d rather take my chances with Scherzer than trying to find out if I can win without him. I don’t play hitters against pitchers this good but there’s always merit to having a couple like Yangervis Solarte or Justin Smoak would be incredible leverage plays.
Blue Jays Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options -None, Yangervis Solarte, Justin Smoak(GPP only)
Blue Jays Probable Starter – Marco Estrada, RHP
5.09 ERA, 1.37 average, 19.0 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .262 average, .351 wOBA, 49.0 fly ball rate and 26.0 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .294 average, .373 wOBA, 58.1 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard contact rate
The Nationals should be able to take advantage of the amount of fly balls that Estrada gives up and I wouldn’t be surprised if most players flock to the other smash spots on this slate. I likely will be one of the players going to the more popular spots because I think they are flat out better. If you do decide to head towards the Nationals, I think the top three options are Adam Eaton, Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon, in that order. Turner is under $4,000 on FanDuel and that isn’t going to happen very often. I also wouldn’t talk you out of any Nationals hitter because Estrada is not a good pitcher at all and attacking him is going to work more often than it doesn’t. All of the major suspects from leadoff to the six slot in this lineup are very interesting.
Nationals Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper
Secondary Options – Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon
Home Run Pick – Trea Turner
DFS MLB – Twins at Indians
Twins Probable Starter – Fernando Romero, RHP
3.92 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 21.4 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .242 average, .306 wOBA, 33.3 fly ball rate and 39.6 hard contact rate
vs RHH – .255 average, .323 wOBA, 30.6 fly ball rate and 41.1 hard contact rate
Romero has been very up and down so far this season and that’s not surprising for the young man. I certainly have no interest in playing him today but I also don’t think I’ll be too heavy on Cleveland either. When you’re spending in that $4,000-$4,500 range for a hitter, you better feel very comfortable about the matchup and what the likeliest outcome is. Romero is capable of pitching well or totally falling apart. If you want to go the Indians best hitters route, I’d rank them Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley and Francisco Lindor. To me, the decision between Nolan Arenado and a hitter like Brantley isn’t even close. With Scherzer, you can truly only afford one. Both Lindor and Ramirez are more expensive than Arenado.
Indians Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley
Secondary Options – Edwin Encarnacion, Jason Kipnis
Indians Probable Starter – Carlos Carrasco, RHP
3.90 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 25.8 strikeout rat e
Vs LHH – .226 average, .279 wOBA, 35.4 fly ball rate and 33.0 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .246 average, .295 wOBA, 36.3 fly ball rate and 38.8 hard contact rate
Carrasco is going to go largely ignored today with the combo of Corey Kluber getting beat up a little bit by this offense and being five digits. There’s no way I’m not finding the $1,700 more needed to play Scherzer because the ceiling is roughly 30-35 points higher. I’m not falling that fat behind Scherzer and paying $10,300 on FanDuel. The splits are fairly even for Carrasco so I would stick to the bespatters against righties if you’re playing any Twins. Eduardo Escobar and Eddie Rosario are excellent options and Joe Mauer is in the running as a “safe” play. This game as a whole is largely a pass for me. There could be a lot of pitching or a whole lot of offense coming from this on this after noon
Twins Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Ecobar, Joe Mauer
Home Run Pick – Michael Brantley
DFS MLB – Phillies at Brewers
Phillies Probable Starter – Zach Eflin, RHP
3.63 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 23.8 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .254 average, .340 wOBA, 45.8 fly ball rate and 32.0 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .225 average, .267 wOBA, 35.9 fly ball rate and 24.2 hard contact rate
I’m going to go out on the limb and say it – I think that Eflin gives up at least five earned runs today. The Brewers offense utterly destroyed the Phillies last night and Eflin is due some regression. The names most players know are Christian Yelich and Travis Shaw, who are great plays for sure. One that I think might fly under the radar is Eric Thames. If he finds his way into the lineup, I think he takes Eflin deep. $3,300 on FanDuel is pretty reasonable as well. I don’t want Brewers righty bats in cash but I’m perfectly fine with a full bore Milwaukee stack. Elfin just pitched against hem last start and pitchers typically struggle in that second time in five days against the same offense.
Brewers Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Travis Shaw, Christain Yelich
Secondary Options – Eric Thames
Brewers Probable Starter – Junior Guerra, RHP
2.71 average, 1.15 WHIP and 22.2 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .222 average, .302 wOBA, 37.6 fly ball rate and 39.4 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .212 average, .262 wOBA, 43.0 fly ball rate and 41.6 hard contact rate
One of the reasons that I want Scherzer so badly other than he’s just a monster is Guerra might be the best other option on this slate. While he’s having a super solid year it hasn’t been a major boon for fantasy. He averages about 30 points a game and Scherzer averages around 47. That’s a significant gap even though the salaries are fairly different as well. If you play Guerra,that’s a spot where I want Rockies, Trout and some Brewers and/or Reds all in my lineup. I really don’t have a lot of interest in the Phillies because Guerra has been a very effective pitcher so far. Philly has been hitting very poorly the past two weeks on top of that.
Phillies Hitters to Target
Elite Options – None
Secondary Options – Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera
Home Run Pick – Eric Thames
DFS MLB – Padres at Braves
Padres Probable Starter – Jordan Lyles, RHP
4.83 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 19.6 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .196 average, .276 wOBA, 40.2 fly ball rate and 36.1 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .313 average, .377 wOBA, 34.7 fly ball rate and 40.8 hard contact rate
The splits for Lyles are pretty significant which means the only lefty hitter I’d consider is Freddie Freeman because he’s incredible at baseball. The righties are very interesting here. Dansby Swanson has been hitting higher in the order and is fine against righty pitching. A value pick that I played last night and could go right back is Charlie Culberson. He’s dirt cheap on FanDuel and could come through being in the middle of a good offense. I’m not going to be playing Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis or Ender Inciarte today and this side of the game is value picks, Freddie Freeman or bust.
Braves Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Charlie Culberson, Dansby Swanson, Freddie Freeman
Secondary Options – The catcher duo of Kurt Suzuki or Tyler Flowers, Ozzie Albies
Braves Probable Starter – Sean Newcomb, LHP
2.92 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 24.3 strikeout rate
Vs LHH – .174 average, .324 wOBA, 40.6 fly ball rate and 40.6 hard contact rate
Vs RHH – .214 average, .266 wOBA, 32.9 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard contact rate
Depending on how long you’ve read this article, you know that I’m usually first in line to play Newcomb. I love the Atlanta lefty but there’s a disturbing trend that has appeared over his last few starts. He hasn’t had more than six strikeouts in a game since May 2. That’s not enough for his price tag unless he gives up no runs and gets the quality start and win bonus. His buffer for mistakes is non-existent as he’s pitching right now. If you’re not worried about the Padres striking out all that much, players like Hunter Renfroe and Christian Villanueva are the two that standout between their salary and performance. Both of those players are significantly better against lefties but they do carry a high chance of striking out if Newcomb has his arsenal working for him. This side of the game its GPP for sure. No outcome of this Newcomb start would surprise me at all.
Padres Hitters to Target
Elite Options – Christian Villanueva
Secondary Options – Hunter Renfroe, Jose Pirela, Freddy Galvis
Home Run Pick – Dansby Swanson
DFS MLB Sample FanDuel Lineup
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P – Max Scherzer
C/1B – Eric Thames
2B – Erik Gonzales
3B – Nolan Arenado
SS – Charlie Culberson
OF – Chris Young, Jesse Winker, Derek Dietrich
Utility – Marcus Semien
I’m not sure how much I like this lineup, if I’m being frank. Yes, it does have Scherzer and Arenado in it but there’s a hefty amount of risk here. We’d be relying on six players under $3,000 to come through for us which is a little sketchy. Deciding on the value guys is going to be crucial today and Thames should be at lest one spot that is different than most. You also never know what a lineup card will look like so we’ll see if something changes before lock. I do like the outfield a good bit considering what we spent to get it. If Erick Gonzalez isn’t in the starting lineup, I think Semien would be the first man out while we found a 2B replacement.
The Core – Jesse Winker, Derek Dietrich
Stacks to Consider – Reds(at Pittsburgh), Rangers and Rockies game stack, Indians(Minnesota) and A’s(vs Angels)
As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.