How will England line up at the World Cup, and how should they?

LEEDS, ENGLAND - JUNE 07: Gareth Southgate the manager of England looks on during the International friendly match between England and Costa Rica at Elland Road on June 7, 2018 in Leeds, England. (Photo by Alex Livesey/Getty Images)
LEEDS, ENGLAND - JUNE 07: Gareth Southgate the manager of England looks on during the International friendly match between England and Costa Rica at Elland Road on June 7, 2018 in Leeds, England. (Photo by Alex Livesey/Getty Images) /
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England’s World Cup campaign kicks off on Saturday. How will they line up in the opener against Tunisia, and how should they? 

England head to Russia with one of the youngest squads they’ve ever taken to a World Cup. There are a few established stars, but for the most part Gareth Southgate will be picking his starting XI from a team of relatively evenly-matched players. He seems set on playing with three at the back (either in a 3-4-3 or a 3-5-2, depending on the opponent), but who will he pick for England’s  tournament opener against Tunisia on Saturday?

Jordan Pickford is probably the slight favorite to start in goal. The Everton keeper played against Nigeria in England’s first pre-World Cup friendly, as part of a team that also included Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling and Dele Alli, which suggests he’s the first choice. Jack Butland, who started the friendly against Costa Rica, will be his deputy.

The three centre-backs Southgate is leaning toward seem to be Kyle Walker, Gary Cahill and John Stone. Stones and Walker appear to be certain starters, but Cahill’s position is more precarious after such a disappointing season with Chelsea. If Cahill doesn’t start, Phil Jones or Harry Maguire are likely to take his place.

The wing-back roles are harder to call. Kieran Trippier and Trent Alexander-Arnold are battling for a spot on the right (though if Southgate decides to move Walker out there, neither will start), while Ashley Young and Danny Rose are both in contention to start on the left. Tippier’s experience will likely win out against Alexander-Arnold. Rose hasn’t played much this season, but he’s a more natural fit in the position than Young.

The central midfield spots will go to some combination of Jordan Henderson, Eric Dier, Dele Alli and Jesse Lingard. Southgate didn’t use Henderson and Dier together in England’s warm-up matches, but he may want to keep the option available for the final group match against Belgium. Against Tunisia, it’s likely going to be Henderson behind Alli and Lingard.

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If Southgate persists with the 3-5-2 he’s used in England’s recent friendlies, the front two is almost certain to be Harry Kane and Raheem Sterling. However, given England’s relative riches in attack — Marcus Rashford, Jamie Vardy and Danny Welbeck are all in the squad — there’s room for flexibility here. Southgate could move Sterling deeper and play Vardy alongside Kane, or switch to more of a 3-4-3 and play Sterling and Rashford out wide.

Which of these combinations Southgate settles on will likely depend on the opponent and the form of his players through the first two games, against Tunisia and Panama. Unlike previous England sides, there are really no guaranteed starters, with the possible exceptions of Kane and Walker. That gives Southgate a freedom his recent predecessors have lacked, and one that could see the Three Lions put together their best World Cup campaign since the Sven-Goran Eriksson years.