MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Saturday, June 16th Late Afternoon and Evening Slates

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tout Transparency Report for Friday, June 15th

Before we get to today’s MLB DFS Bargain Bin recommendations, we’ll look back at how Friday’s MLB DFS Bargain Bin play suggestions did in the MLB DFS Bargain Bin Tout Transparency Report.

In the interest of transparency and tracking trends, I’ll do a quick review after each day in which I suggest value plays to see what went right, and what didn’t exactly work out as planned.

The mammoth 15-game slate naturally presented us with plenty of options in terms of finding value, but some better-than-expected performances from a couple of pitchers that have had a rough go of it for the most part neutralized a couple of the value stacks I’d suggested.

Derek Holland was one such hurler. Holland finished with a fairly strong performance in which he struck out seven over five innings, but suggested bargain bat Kike Hernandez was still able to maintain his career-long success versus left-handed pitching by crushing a first-inning homer, instantly paying off his minuscule price and then some. The other cheaper Dodger bats I’d highlighted were mostly quiet, however.

Over in Pittsburgh, Matt Harvey was serviceable over five innings in his own right, which put somewhat of a damper on our trio of Pirates bats (Colin Moran was a Twitter-suggested pivot off Austin Meadows, who was out of the lineup). Moran did end up with strong night relative to his price across the industry, however, as he singled, walked, scored and drove in a run with a sacrifice fly.

In the Windy City, the Tigers’ Mike Fiers also held his own through five-plus frames, although suggested bargain bat Daniel Palka did come through with a two-hit night. My other pair of value White Sox hitters, Yoan Moncada and Yolmer Sanchez, had a walk and a hit, respectively.

In yesterday’s piece, I listed Brewers starter Brent Suter‘s vulnerability to right-handed batters, especially in his hitter-friendly home park. As such, I thought a few Phillies righty bargain bats could be in play as a sneaky stack. However, Suter was highly effective over seven innings, and it was instead the Brewers hitters who teed off on Jake Arrieta and reliever Mark Leiter, Jr. in particular. Of the suggested Philly value plays, Scott Kingery was the only one to really do anything of note by lacing a pair of hits.

But at least one game went according to script. The Rockies unsurprisingly put a hurting on Triple-A callup Yohander Mendez of the Rangers, whose extensive troubles with right-handed hitters I’d highlighted yesterday in his metrics to target. Suggested bargain bat Ian Desmond tagged Mendez for a solo home run in the second and then gave Matt Moore the same treatment in the fifth. Desmond ultimately added a single as well for a stellar night in which he provided massive returns on his affordable prices across the industry.

And finally, on the pitching side of things, suggested bargain arm Reynaldo Lopez was a mixed bag. A rocky pair of frames early seemed to have him on pace for an early exit, but Lopez settled down and actually squeezed a quality start bonus out on FanDuel by hanging in for six innings overall. It was a solid effort overall, but Lopez did surrender a solo home run to John Hicks as one of the three runs he gave up, even though, as I’d alluded to yesterday, the long ball had been exceedingly rare for the right-hander this season.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Best Value(s):

Desmond, Hernandez combine for three bombs– It’s been a mostly miserable season for Ian Desmond, but being back in one of his old home parks seemed to rejuvenate him for at least one night. The veteran slugger launched a pair of solo blasts in hitter-friendly Globe Life Park against some subpar arms. Kike Hernandez also squared up on Derek Holland in the first inning, unsurprising given the amount of hard contact that Holland typically allows to righty bats and that we were trying to target.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Biggest Dud(s):

Hoskins, Alfaro blanked- As mentioned earlier, Brent Suter dealt for seven strong innings, and Hoskins and Alfaro were two frequent victims. The two went a combined 0-for-8, and while neither Aaron Altherr nor Maikel Franco started, they both eventually entered the game and went a combined 0-for-3.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Saturday, June 16th Late Afternoon and Evening Slates

With our look back now complete, time to turn our attention to finding bargains for today’s slates!

Welcome to the Saturday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the night’s 15-game ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about both format and content:

• The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
• Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
• Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft).  However, there are certainly occasions, particularly with Yahoo, where one site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as a “XYZ site-only special”.
• This version of the Bargain Bin isn’t a position-by-position breakdown. Rather, I try to identify where there is a particular vulnerability in terms of pitchers on the slate. Naturally, the amount of pitchers I suggest to target and the corresponding amount of value hitters to target them with will vary by slate.
• The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s take a look at where there’s cash to be saved on Saturday’s Late Afternoon and Evening MLB Slates!:

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Saturday, June 16th Late Afternoon and Evening Slates

Bargain Pitching Spots to Consider

Wade LeBlanc, SEA vs. BOS– Yahoo ($34)/ FanDuel ($6,600)/ DraftKings ($4,900)/ FantasyDraft ($9,100)

It always feels a bit counterintuitive to roster a pitcher against the Red Sox, but southpaws can be a real X-factor sometimes. The Red Sox have been downright bad the majority of the time against southpaws this season, last night’s effort against James Paxton notwithstanding.  Even factoring in last night’s success, they still sport a 28.4 percent strikeout rate, .271 wOBA and 69 wRC+ versus lefties outside of Fenway over the last two months. They’ve been even worse over the last month, with a .249 wOBA and MLB-high 33.3 percent strikeout rate against lefties on the road.

LeBlanc has been very steady during his starting stint in place of Erasmo Ramirez, and although he hasn’t gone overly deep in games, he’s given up two earned runs or less in six of seven starts. While expectations should be held in check in terms of the size of return he can deliver, his very affordable price (especially on DK and FantasyDraft) don’t require him to be Cy Young to reward your investment.

Sean Manaea, OAK vs. LAA- Yahoo ($36)/ FanDuel ($7,300)/ DraftKings ($6,800)/ FantasyDraft ($13,500)

Manaea’s price has come down from the earlier part of the season, when he started out like a house afire. He’s had his rough spots since then, but he finds himself in a potentially favorable situation Saturday. To begin with, he’ll be in the best pitcher’s park in baseball, one in which he boasts a .191 BAA, 0.84 WHIP and .253 wOBA in over 46.1 innings in 2018.

The Angels have also struggled against lefties on the road over the last month of play, as evidenced by a .258 wOBA, 23.0 percent strikeout rate and 63 wRC+ versus that handedness over that span. What’s more, they were already stymied by Manaea in the Coliseum in his first start of the season, only managing one earned run on four hits over 7.2 innings against him.

Athletics vs. Angels

Target: Angels SP John Lamb and Angels bullpen

Metric(s) to Target:

Lamb: .389 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters over two-year MLB career/.371 wOBA (including 40 extra-base hits) allowed to right-handed hitters over two-year MLB career/ 36.1 percent hard contact rate allowed to left-handed hitters over two-year MLB career/22.7 percent line drive rate allowed to right-handed hitters over two-year MLB career.

Angels bullpen: 13 extra-base hits, including six homers, and 34.7 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters on the road over last month of play/ .382 wOBA, 32.3 percent line drive rate and 42.4 percent hard contact rate allowed to left-handed hitters on road over last month of play.

Athletics Bargain Bats to Consider:

Dustin Fowler-Yahoo ($14)/ FanDuel ($2,200)/ DraftKings ($3,900)/ FantasyDraft ($7,400)

Marcus Semien-Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($2,800)/ DraftKings ($3,900)/ FantasyDraft ($7,300)

Jed Lowrie-Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($3,000)/ DraftKings ($3,700)/ FantasyDraft ($7,400)

Mark Canha-Yahoo ($9)/ FanDuel ($2,600)/ DraftKings ($3,300)/ FantasyDraft ($6,600)

Stephen Piscotty-Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($2,300)/ DraftKings ($3,000)/ FantasyDraft ($5,400)

Jonathan Lucroy-Yahoo ($8)/ FanDuel ($2,000)/ DraftKings ($2,800)/ FantasyDraft ($5,900)

Braves vs. Padres

Target: Padres SP Jordan Lyles

Metric(s) to Target:

.377 wOBA (including seven homers) allowed to right-handed hitters, including .407 BAA and .502 on the road/.524 wOBA (including four homers) and 10.45 ERA over first two starts of June/ .524 xFIP, 2.27 WHIP allowed to right-handed hitters on the road/40.8 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters, including 42.0 percent on the road.

Braves Bargain Bats to Consider:

Tyler Flowers-Yahoo ($15)/ FanDuel ($3,100)/ DraftKings ($3,600)/ FantasyDraft ($7,700)

Dansby Swanson-Yahoo ($15)/ FanDuel ($3,000)/ DraftKings ($4,000)/ FantasyDraft ($7,200)

Kurt Suzuki-Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($2,700)/ DraftKings ($3,400)/ FantasyDraft ($6,400)

Yahoo-only special:

Ozzie Albies-($14)

Pirates vs. Reds

Target: Reds SP Luis Castillo

Metric(s) to Target:

.366 wOBA (including eight homers) allowed to left-handed hitters, including .300 BAA and .408 wOBA on the road/.343 wOBA (including three homers) and 7.59 ERA over first two starts of June/ .562 xFIP allowed to left-handed hitters on the road/43.4 percent hard contact rate allowed to left-handed hitters, including 45.5 percent on the road.

Pirates Bargain Bats to Consider:

Austin Meadows-Yahoo ($15)/ FanDuel ($3,100)/ DraftKings ($4,300)/ FantasyDraft ($8,500)

Corey Dickerson-Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($2,800)/ DraftKings ($3,800)/ FantasyDraft ($7,300)

Gregory Polanco-Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($3,200)/ DraftKings ($3,700)/ FantasyDraft ($7,200)

Colin Moran-Yahoo ($11)/ FanDuel ($2,500)/ DraftKings ($3,200)/ FantasyDraft ($6,800)

Nationals at Blue Jays

Target: Blue Jays SP Marco Estrada

Metric(s) to Target:

.373 wOBA (including 10 homers and 23 extra-base hits overall) allowed to right-handed hitters,/34.3 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters.

Nationals Bargain Bats to Consider:

Anthony Rendon-Yahoo ($15)/ FanDuel ($3,400)/ DraftKings ($3,600)/ FantasyDraft ($7,300)

Mark Reynolds-Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($2,900)/ DraftKings ($4,000)/ FantasyDraft ($7,300)

Yahoo/Fantasy Draft-only special:

Trea Turner-Yahoo ($16)/ FantasyDraft ($8,100)

Next: FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups

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