DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Sunday, June 17

Welcome into the Sunday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have nine games on the main slate so let dig in!

I’m not sure what’s more frustrating in DFS MLB – when you just get owned and finish way back in your contests or you finish under 10 points back from the money line, looking at a zero and knowing a player you almost played hit a three run homer. I lean towards the second scenario and that happened yesterday. I highlighted Chris Young from the Angels in this space but then he wasn’t in the lineup. Once Justin Upton got scratched and Young entered the lineup, I thought about playing him but didn’t want to tinker. Unfortunately, it was a loss on that slate but we’re back and ready to go on Sunday.

DFS MLB – Marlins at Orioles

Marlins Probable Starter – Trevor Richards, RHP 

4.41 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 20.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .213 average, .306 wOBA, 33.3 fly ball rate and 38.1 hard contact rate 

Vs RHH – .261 average, .342 wOBA,  35.1 fly ball rate and 48.3 hard contact rate 

If these splits are going to be accurate for Richards, it could be a long day for the righty. However, it’s hard to have the most faith in the Baltimore offense right now. They drew Wei-Yen Chen and let him log a quality start despite being in a terrible matchup. Baltimore has just been so poor lately it’s hard to get excited for any matchup. Usually I would just default to saying Manny Machado is a great play but he’s not even hitting .175 in the past two weeks. I’m not brave enough to play Richards but there are so many other offenses in smash spots I also don’t want to take the risk of playing Orioles hitters. They’re only a GPP option.

Orioles Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Manny Machado, Adam Jones

Orioles Probable Starter – Dylan Bundy, RHP

3.66 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 27.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .290 average, .358 wOBA, 46.6 fly ball rate and 34.5 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .182 average, .279 wOBA, 47.6 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard contact rate

There is another pitcher who is more talented than Bundy but I think the Baltimore righty might be my favorite pitcher. He’s got a dynamite strikeout rate that can help make up for any runs he gives up and he’s in the better matchup. I’ve had terrible luck with pitchers against Miami so far this year and if you want to take a swing at Bundy, Justin Bour has to be someone you look at. Power hitting lefties are a serious weakness and I could definitely see Bour going yard today. The other lefties shouldn’t be too much of a concern and I think Bundy has the edge in this spot. Ever since he got pummeled by the Royals last month, he’s been a lot better. I want every dollar I can to build offense today so Bundy will likely get the nod over the highest priced option on this slate.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Justin Bour

Secondary Options – Derek Dietrich

Home Run Pick – Justin Bour

DFS MLB – Nationals at Blue Jays

Nationals Probable Starter – Tanner Roark, RHP 

3.63 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 20.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .247 average, .328 wOBA, 37.3 fly ball rate and 31.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .181 average, .252 wOBA, 36.3 fly ball rate and 30.7 hard contact rate

Roark is always a weird pitcher when he’s on the slate. There’s almost nothing you can do with his side of the game because he’s typically not worth playing. He’s a good pitcher that doesn’t have a high strikeout rate so it’s not like he’s racking up a ton of points. On the flip side, he’s not someone we want to target hitters against precisely because he’s a good pitcher in real life. While I won’t be using this side of the game personally, I think the only route you can go is using the Blue Jays lefties. Curtis Granderson has been smoking the ball lately and is only $3,000 on FanDuel. The same logic goes for Yangervis Solarte. I’d be surprised if the Jays were highly owned so it could be a solid against the grain play.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Curtis Granderson

Secondary Options -Yangervis Solarte, Justin Smoak

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Sam Gaviglio, RHP 

3.66 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 21.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .283 average, .340 wOBA, 37.0 fly ball rate and 30.4 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .186 average, .272 wOBA, 34.0 fly ball rate and 22.9 hard contact rate

I was on Gaviglio the last time he pitched against the Rays and he got waxed. I’m really not that interested today because his splits would indicate this is not a good one for the Blu Jays righty. Almost all of the Nationals best hitters are on the left side of the plate. I’m kind of struggling to pay up for Bryce Harper when he’s hitting just .221 in June. Both of Adam Eaton and Juan Soto are a little bit cheaper than Harper but probably aren’t any worse of a play. Daniel Murphy just doesn’t look quite right and I’m not sure he should be on the major league roster. It appears that his knee is still really bugging him and he’s off of my radar. I can’t blame you if you play any lefty but Soto would be my number one on the board for this team.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Juan Soto, Bryce Harper

Secondary Options – Adam Eaton

Home Run Pick – Curtis Granderson

DFS MLB – Twins at Indians

Twins Probable Starter – Jake Odorizzi, RHP 

4.19 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 22.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .226 average, .346 wOBA, 52.1 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .263 average, .348 wOBA, 52.3 fly ball rate and 31.9 hard contact rate

Whoo buddy this game could see some serious fireworks. We have two fly balls pitchers on the mound against offense that can rake. Odorizzi is absolutely not playable here as he’s faced the Indians twice so far. He’s given up 11 earned runs in 8.2 innings of work. Today might not be any different and there’s almost not a bad play from Cleveland. Edwin Encarnacion is the only one of the big guns from Cleveland that is under $4,000 on FanDuel and that is mighty attractive. Both Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor are great plays but anytime players are over $5,000 it can be tough o build a good enough offense around them. Encarnacion and Brantley are the better plays from a salary perspective. This whole game stack looks like a great way to score up plenty of points today.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley

Secondary Options – Erik Gonzalez, Jason Kipnis, whichever catcher plays

Indians Probable Starter – Shane Beiber, RHP 

6.35 ERA, 1.59 WHIP and 25.0 strikeout rate

I’m still extremely upset that Adam Plutko isn’t starting for the Indians today because he is dreadful against lefties and the Twins are very lefty heavy. Since Plutko had to pitch yesterday after Carlos Carrasco was injured, Bieber will draw the start. I’m not too worried about the splits here because he’s only got 5.2 innings under his belt. This will actually be the second time he’s seen the Twins and I think one player that I will have in every lineup is Eddie Rosario. He’s been so good this year and for some reason, he’s back below $4,000 on FanDuel. Eduardo Escobar is also highly affordable and while I might not be quite as heavy on Twins as I would have been had Plutko pitched, there’s still a solid chance I’ll have some exposure. Joe Mauer doesn’t have a high ceiling but is relatively safe. Ehire Adrianza is a nice play at shortstop given his price point as well.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar

Secondary Options -Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer, Logan Morrison, Eire Adrianza

Home Run Pick – Edwin Encarnacion

DFS MLB – Reds at Pirates

Reds Probable Starter – Anthony DeSclafani, RHP 

5.40 ERA, 1.90 WHIP and 24.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .353 average, .395 wOBA, 36.4 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .400 average, .429 wOBA, 31.6 fly ball rate and 68.4 hard contact rate

DeSclafani owns some pretty hideous metrics through his first two starts and some of the Pirate bats could help afford more of the big name bats we really want today. The Reds pitcher really scuffled against lefties his entire career and one Pirate that looks lit a plug and play option is Colin Moran. He’s been moved to the cleanup spot the past couple games and has responded by stringing some good games together. FanDuel hasn’t adjusted yet and he’s still just $2,500. I would consider some righties here as well and Josh Harrison would be my favorite from that side of the plate. A mini two man stack of Harrison and Moran could give you the leadoff and cleanup man of an offense in a pretty nice spot today for just a total of $5,700.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Colin Moran, Josh Harrison

Secondary Options – Francisco Cervelli, Austin Meadows, Corey Dickerson, Starling Marte

Pirates Probable Starter – Joe Musgrove, RHP 

2.16 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 21.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .205 average, .254 wOBA, 40.0 fly ball rate and 43.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .259 average, .289 wOBA, 29.5 fly ball rate and 29.6 hard contact rate

If you’re not paying up for one of the top options today, Musgrove looks like a very solid play. I’ve been wrong about him so far as I kind of assumed that leaving Houston wouldn’t help him get any better. He’s been excellent through his first four starts and he’s in line for another solid day today. I don’t know how high the ceiling is going to go as the Reds don’t strikeout a lot against righty pitching. I think he gets the better of the Reds lineup but if you want to go after Musgrove, it’s likely with the lefties. That fly ball and hard hit rate would lead me to believe that there’s some regression coming for Musgrove and the strength of the Reds lineup is lefty hitting. I would imagine Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett will not carry a ton of ownership today.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Home Run Pick – Starling Marte

DFS MLB – Padres at Braves

Padres Probable Starter – Matt Strahm, LHP 

2.55 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 16.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .267 average, .472 wOBA, 42.9 fly ball rate and 42.9 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .128 average, .175 wOBA, 45.7 fly ball rate and 27.8 hard contact rate

Strahm can likely go a bit deeper into the game than the three innings he pitched in his last start but I’m still not interested. He’s been a reverse splits lefty so far this season and that’s a bad thing to be when you’re dealing with Freddie Freeman. I think that Freeman and youngster Ozzie Albies are more of luxury picks in cash since they are so pricey and there are hitters in just as good of spots. Both Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki are in excellent spots as well and are way more affordable. It’s just a matter of which player is in the lineup. I don’t think the Braves will be that popular today and I’ll be lighter than normal when they face a lefty.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Freddie Freeman, one of the catchers, Nick Markakis

Secondary Options -Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Charlie Culberson

Braves Probable Starter – Julio Teheran, RHP 

4.31 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 18.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .234 average, .353 wOBA, 47.0 fly ball rate and 42.7 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .203 average, .308 wOBA, 42.6 fly ball rate and 35.3 hard contact rate

Teheran is back off the disabled list with a thumb injury and the last time we saw him, he was getting housed by this same Padres team in San Diego. I’m not going to risk him and the lefties form the Padres would likely be where I would attack Teheran. While Eric Hosmer is the premier option today from San Diego, they have a couple of great salary savers to utilize as well. Corey Spangenberg and Travis Jankowski could really be great plays if you need some cheap lineup fillers. The Padres are basically never owned because they’re the Padres and they’re not “fun” to play. Points count the same no matter what and there’s some solid value plays in Atlanta today.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eric Hosmer

Secondary Options – Travis Jankowski, Corey Spangenberg

Home Run Pick – Eric Hosmer

DFS MLB – Rays at Yankees

Rays Probable Starter – Wilmer Font, RHP 

8.48 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and 17.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .354 average, .453 wOBA, 42.5 fly ball rate and 47.5 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .284 average, .391 wOBA, 46.6 fly ball rate and 43.1 hard contact rate

As of this writing, we’re not sure if Font will be asked to go much more than one or two innings and that will be something we’ll evaluate that as we get closer to lock. No matter what the plan is, Font won’t be sticking around long given some of these metrics in Yankee Stadium. There’s not an offense in a much better spot if Font is supposed to be a true starter in the traditional sense. Greg Bird is the cheapest of the regulars and is on the better side of the splits. Gleyber Torres is an amazing young player but I have issues paying the high price for him if he’s hitting ninth. Gary Sanchez went yard yesterday and is still at about the lowest salary we ever see him at.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird, Brett Gardner

Secondary Options – Gleyber Torres(just spot in the order related), Didi Gregorius,  Miguel Andujar

Yankees Probable Starter – CC Sabathia, LHP 

3.27 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 17.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .222 average, .337 wOBA, 33.3 fly ball rate and 18.2 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .230 average, .290 wOBA, 40.8 fly ball rate and 31.4 hard contact rate

I feel fairly confident in saying that Sabathia isn’t anything but average across the board but I don’t really see a path to really attack here with one glaring exception and that’s C.J. Cron. He’s been very solid against lefties and Sabathia is giving up a healthy amount of fly balls to the handedness. Matt Duffy is fine but I would rather play Colin Moran at the cheaper price. I just don’t see much of a reason to invest in this side of the game on this style of slate. This would be deep GPP plays only for me.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – C.J. Cron, Matt Duffy, Wily Adames

Home Run Pick – Miguel Andujar

DENVER, CO – AUGUST 06: Starting pitcher Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws in the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on August 6, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

DFS MLB – Phillies at Brewers

Phillies Probable Starter – Aaron Nola, RHP 

2.27 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 25.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .195 average, .236 wOBA, 24.6 fly ball rate and 22.2 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .194 average, .232 wOBA, 31.1 fly ball rate and 31.5 hard contact rate

This spot is one that is risky to me for paying very near elite ace pricing for Nola. The Brewers carry a high strikeout rate which might be what most people focus on. I do believe that Nola strikes out his fair share of Brewers hitters today but he could give up some runs too. Milwaukee is top 10 in baseball against righties in average, OPS, slugging, OBP and wOBA. They’re also at home and this is no easy road for Nola. That’s the main reason I’m probably going to side with Bundy as my pitcher of choice. A Brewers stack would be a great leverage play in case Nola has a bad game. Other than that, it’s Nola or bust. I’m not going to play a one-off in this spot.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Brewers stack 1-4 in the lineup

Brewers Probable Starter – Chase Anderson, RHP 

4.13 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 16.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .199 average, .298 wOBA, 45.7 fly ball rate and 36.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .234 average, .324 wOBA, 43.4 fly ball rate and 33.0 hard contact rate

Anderson has been someone we usually want to target but his last start deserves a bit of a deeper look. One factor that jumps out is his fastball was suddenly almost a full two MPH faster than it had been averaging so far this season. If those gains are here to stay, he becomes much harder to hit. Throwing seven innings of one hit ball against the Cubs speaks to that for sure. Anderson is giving up plenty of fly balls which isn’t the greatest thing in Miller Park. I think you go with the power in the Phillies lineup like Rhys Hoskins or Carlos Santana or you leave this side of the game alone. I want to see what Anderson does in this start before trying to play him.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Options – Carlos Santana

Home Run Pick – Carlos Santana

DFS MLB – Tigers at White Sox

Tigers Probable Starter – Blaine Hardy, LHP 

3.55 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 17.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .195 average, .278 wOBA, 44.1 fly ball rate and 32.4 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .253 average, .291 wOBA, 39.5 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard contact rate

If you don’t know who Tim Anderson is for the White Sox, you’re going to today. The shortstop for the White Sox is surely to be chalk throughout the industry since he’s cheap and he kills lefties in his career. Anderson also carries a strikeout rate under 20 percent so that’s a big help to his floor today. Jose Abreu is also a great play against a lefty but he’s more fairly priced so it’s more about lineup construction if I play Abreu today. hardy might have a hard time keeping those two bats under control today.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Time Anderson, Jose Abreu

Secondary Options – Daniel Palka

White Sox Probable Starter – James Shields, RHP

4.63 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 15.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .196 average, .290 wOBA, 43.8 fly ball rate and 28.2 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .259 average, .309 wOBA, 45.1 fly ball rate and 36.7 hard contact rate

The last time that Shields pitched, players loaded up on Indians and he trolled everyone by going seven innings and only giving up one run. The gas can starts haven’t been as frequent form Shields this year and the Tigers aren’t as good against righties as they are against lefties. Maybe Shields pitches poorly today but it’s not the given many assumed at the start of the year. I’m going to be skipping Tigers but one man you could play coming off a monster game is Nicholas Castellanos. He hit two home runs yesterday and Shields has actually been leaning towards being reverse splits so far in 2018. I won’t be forcing many Tigers into my lineups today.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Nicholas Castellanos

Home Run Pick – Tim Anderson

DFS MLB – Astros at Royals

Astros Probable Starter – Lance McCullers, RHP 

3.83 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 24.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .171 average, .264 wOBA, 32.0 fly ball rate and 33.7 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .269 average, .326 wOBA, 24.1 fly ball rate and 36.2 hard contact rate

McCullers is always best treated as a GPP options on a bigger slate because the range of outcomes is typically pretty wide. Either he dominates or he gets touched up a bit. I don’t think this Royals offense will score a lot but they also don’t strike out nearly as much as I’d want when playing McCullers. If he doesn’t have the strikeout ceiling and he gives up a couple runs to the Royals, you might just have a very expensive 25 points in your lineup. The only hitter that I think you could go with is Whit Merrifield, and even then the odds of a home run are pretty low. McCullers is in a weird salary range. I’m either finding the salary for Nola or Bundy or I’ll drop down to Musgove.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options -Whit Merrifield

Royals Probable Starter – Brad Keller, RHP

2.31 ERA, 1.23 WHIP ad 16.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .163 average, .227 wOBA, 21.6 fly ball rate and 24.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .264 average, .294 wOBA, 27.1 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard contact rate

The Royals are throwing an inexperienced righty who carries a low strikeout rate and and is reverse splits against a righty heavy lineup that is about as hot as any team in baseball. Good luck, Brad Keller. You’re going to need it.  During the Astros win streak, here’s the run totals – 7, 5, 7, 4, 8, 6, 13, 7, 7 and 10. That’s 74 for those counting at home. The only positive thing I can say for Keller is through his 35 innings pitched, he carries at least a 55 percent ground ball rate to both sides of the plate.  I still don’t think that’s goin to be what cools down the Astros offense and I’m doing something I’ve not done before  – any Astros starter is in play. Josh Reddick stands out as a salary saver at just $2,800. Other than that, you can play anyone you want, especially in the top six or seven in the lineup.

Home Run Pick – Jose Altuve

DSF MLB Sample FanDuel Lineup

P – Dylan Bundy 

C/1B – Gary Sanchez

2B – Jose Altuve 

3B – Colin Moran 

SS – Tim Anderson

OF – Josh Reddick, Eddie Rosario, Travis Jankowski

Utility – Jose Abreu 

The biggest issue I’m having when building a lineup is deciding which offense to not have a bigger piece of. There’s so many on good spots on paper it’s hard to narrow it down. Bundy is close to a lock for me today so it leaves us a lot of money to play with. We kick it off with Sanchez who is simply too cheap, even though he’s had a poor season so far. Altuve is self explanatory and then we take some value in Moran and Anderson. Reddick might go overlooked and he hits righties pretty well. Rosario is locked in. The only way he won’t be in my lineup is if he’s not playing for the Twins. We polish things off with Jankowski as a leadoff man with stolen base potential and a power hitter in Jose Abreu in a positive split.

The Core – Eddie Rosario, Tim Anderson

Stacks to Consider – Astros(at Kansas City), Indians and Twins game stack, Yankees(vs Tampa Bay) and Pirates(vs Cincinnati)

Next: Fantasy Baseball Impact: Longoria Injury

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.