FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups: Sunday June 17

Welcome back to the FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups column. This is the Father’s Day 2018 edition, for June 17th. We’re a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you build a DFS MLB optimal lineup for each slate.

Boy was yesterday a frustrating set of FanDuel MLB slates. In the Early Only, Max Scherzer effectively did as expected. With ten strikeouts in six innings, Max only gave up two runs and earned the quality start. But the Nats offense did nothing at all, forcing us to give up the win points, and earning just 46 FanDuel MLB points.

The Pirates and Orioles stack was solid, with Corey Dickerson and Adam Jones posting a combined 30 FanDuel MLB points, and Josh Harrison smashing a bomb for 28.4 FanDuel MLB points. But Max’s just-short of 50 points with any Nationals offensive player means you landed just short of winning money in either Cash or GPP. Hopefully you had the right set of Pirates for a better day than we had.

Then, even though Patrick Corbin had seven strikeouts in six innings, the Mets bats suddenly came along against the left-handed pitcher. That’s right, the Mets who have an incredibly low run production against left-handed pitchers, suddenly put up five earned in just six innings against on of the better lefties in the game this season.

The Boston Red Sox made Wade LeBlanc look like a Cy Young award winner, and the Mets somehow only gave up one run to the Diamondbacks. Although, Nick Amed still produced 15.2 FanDuel MLB points, which was about as expected. Also, Marcell Ozuna crushed a two-run home run for 22.2 FanDuel MLB points. Still, we expected MUCH better from that lineup.

Typically for a Sunday, the vast majority of our games start around 1pm EDT, followed by the balance of the schedule starting after 4pm EDT. Only one game, the Sunday Night game on ESPN, isn’t included in the Main FanDuel MLB slate. So we’re going to fade the Cubs and Cardinals in our set of lineup options today.

Before we get there, a reminder to never take a DFS MLB optimal lineup as ‘bible’ for your personal lineup each day. Use the suggestions as guidance. Also, make sure you follow final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR or me @mattymcmatt17 look for late breaking lineup news.

Weather Note: Almost verbatim from yesterday, we have fantastic weather across the country, for baseball today, with the exception of some showers risk in the Atlanta area. So the Padres and Braves have the only risk of delay. However, that risk is minor, and it’s only at the early part of the game.

With weather-related considerations addressed, let’s get to the top pitching options…

FanDuel MLB: Top Pitcher Main Slate

As a father, I’m offended by the list of pitchers in today’s Father’s Day FanDuel MLB Main slate. When you’re looking at a list of pitcher options and notice Shane Bieber ($6,000) or Anthony DeSclafani ($5,700) have one of the top five highest K-rates among the options, you know it’s an ugly list.

No offense to either Bieber or DeSclafani. But neither has done much so far this season, and we don’t even have much data on them to feel confident with their metrics. But also, their match ups aren’t ideal.

Fortunately, the baseball gods gave us two solid picks to consider, but they’re also the most expensive in the slate, and obvious so chalky. Aaron Nola ($9,800) tossed two ten-K games in his last four starts. Nola’s K-rate climbed to 25.9% for the season, and he’s facing a Brewers offense who’s fanning 24.7% of the time against RHP’s, seventh worst in baseball.

But, the Brewers offense is dangerous. Even though they have a high K-rate against right-handed pitchers, they’re still producing at a solid level compared to other MLB teams this season. Nola is unlikely to give up three or four runs, but that’s also possible.

For that reason, we’re leaning more toward Dylan Bundy ($9,200) against the Marlins. If you look at Bundy’s game log over the last month, he hasn’t been as hot as Nola. However, Bundy faced the Red Sox twice and the Nats once over that period of time. Also, he absolutely crushed the White Sox in a 14-K nine inning complete game with 70 FanDuel MLB points, recently.

Dylan has the highest K-rate of this slate, 27.3%. Also, the Marlins are fanning 23.6% of the time against RHP’s, 11th worst in baseball. The risk with Bundy is that he tends to give up big home runs in a start, which can impact his win or quality start status. You could pick either for your lineup today. Nola is the safe low-ERA guy, and Bundy is the riskier high K results guy.

Note: Do NOT start Wilmer Font ($5,500) in your lineup today. The Rays continue to experiment with relief pitchers to start games, and Font won’t last more than two or three innings before they replace him with another long-relief man.

FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks Main Slate

There is going to be a lot of offense in baseball today. One game, in particular, jumps off the MLB schedule when you look at the pitching metrics. Jake Odorizzi has an insanely high 52.5% FB%, and is giving up 1.73 home runs per nine innings. He’s also getting a high Hard Contact rate from his pitches.

The Indians have Odorizzi pitching to them in Cleveland this afternoon. He’s cooled off a bit recently, but this game is screaming for us to play Edwin Encarnacion ($3,900). After a slow start, Encarnacion quickly piled up 16 home runs for the season by early June.

With value plays like Jason Kipnis ($2,900) and Lonnie Chisenhall ($2,700), it’s easy to stack the Indians with Encarnacion and Jose Ramirez ($5,300) in our lineup today. And with the fly-ball and hard contact rate from the pitching, this is a juicy stack.

In the same game, the Indians are throwing Bieber onto the mound to start the game. Not Justin, Shane (who’s actually younger than Justin). We have little population of data to feel comfortable with the metrics. So don’t get too excited when you hear Shane Bieber has given up 3.18 home runs per nine innings.

There are some interesting metrics to consider with Bieber though. Shane’s HB% is 52.9%, one of the highest on the slate. While he has a low 23.5% FB rate, when he does have a fly-ball hit off of his pitch, there’s currently a 50% chance it lands on the other side of the wall. Even with a small population of data, that’s incredibly high.

So, with that in mind, one of our favorite stacks of the day is grabbing four Twins and four players from the Tribe, with Bundy or Nola at pitcher. The Twins have tons of value in their lineup, with potential options like Robbie Grossman ($2,100), Max Kepler ($2,500), and Ehire Adrianza ($2,600). That makes playing Eddie Rosario ($3,700) easy today.

We think the Twins and Indians are likely to have the most fireworks today, but there are plenty of other great offensive stacking options, if you want to provide a greater mix of players, or mix up the stacks.

The Yankees are likely to take advantage of the train of pitchers the Rays trout out to the mound today. Also, the Nationals bats should come back alive this afternoon. Finally, in a similar situation to our top stacks today, the Braves and Padres could see a couple of home runs in Sun Trust Park on a hot and humid day just outside of Atlanta.

FanDuel MLB: Summary and Example Lineup

If you can afford him, one of my favorite random plays today is Juan Soto ($3,800) against Sam Gaviglio. The 19-year-old has become very expensive, after weeks of incredible value. But in this match up, Soto is likely to have a few shots hit toward the wall.

It will be hard to fit Soto into your lineup, though, with Ramirez, Encarnacion, and Rosario. So you likely need to swap one of those three out. Of the three, we’d recommend Ramirez given Edwin and Eddie are each most likely to ‘go yard ‘today.

Again, we can’t avoid playing Bundy or Nola at the pitcher spot today. All other options are too risky. Between the two, Nola is the safer and more expensive pick. But Dylan’s upside is more attractive. And for offensive stacks, we love the Indians and Twins. But you could also consider the Yankees, Nationals, Braves, and Padres.

With that summary in mind, here’s a look at a sample lineup for the MAIN FanDuel MLB slate on Sunday, June 17th 2018:

FanDuel MLB Main Slate Sample Lineup:

P              Dylan Bundy ($9,200)

C/1B       Edwin Encarnacion ($3,900)

2B            Jason Kipnis ($2,900)

3B            Jose Ramirez ($5,300)

SS            Ehire Adrianza ($2,600)

OF           Max Kepler ($2,500)

OF           Robbie Grossman ($2,100)

OF           Eddie Rosario ($3,700)

UTIL        Lonnie Chisenhall ($2,700)

Remaining Salary: $0

Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for today. You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel NHL lineups.  We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.

Next: MLB DFS Game by Game Breakdown

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