MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, June 17th Slates

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tout Transparency Report for Saturday, June 16th

Before we get to today’s MLB DFS Bargain Bin recommendations, we’ll look back at how Friday’s MLB DFS Bargain Bin play suggestions did in the MLB DFS Bargain Bin Tout Transparency Report.

In the interest of transparency and tracking trends, I’ll do a quick review after each day in which I suggest value plays to see what went right, and what didn’t exactly work out as planned.

Saturday turned out to be a very positive day in terms of recommended plays coming through. What it made it all the more interesting is that there weren’t necessarily any truly big run totals in any of the games there were suggested value bats involved, but many found a way to come through.

We’ll start over in Oakland, where Angels starter John Lamb actually turned in a much better performance than expected. However, late Twitter suggestion Chad Pinder made plenty of noise with a home run and triple among his efforts. Additionally, Marcus Semien went deep in his own right, and Stephen Piscotty came through in the latter stages of the game with a two-run single. Lamb’s metrics were such that I suggested nearly every cheap A’s bat of either handedness against him, so not every one of them came through. The ones that did against him (Pinder, Semien) or against an Angels bullpen that we wanted to target with right-handed hitters (Piscotty) did provide very nice returns, however.

Over in Pittsburgh, Reds starter Luis Castillo‘s vulnerability to left-handed hitters on the road surfaced again when suggested bargain bat Colin Moran took him deep in the third inning and also drew a walk against him. Another suggested play, Austin Meadows, also laced a double off Castillo, and Corey Dickerson had a pair of two-baggers of his own, although they came off relievers.

The other two pitchers that the numbers led me to, Marco Estrada and Jordan Lyles, actually threw a wrench in our plans by being as brilliant as they’ve been all season, but there was still some production to be had. In the Nationals-Blue Jays tilt, suggested bargain plays Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner were able to get on the board, the former with a pair of walks and the latter with a walk and double.

However, Lyles proved to be a much tougher nut to crack. The significant trouble that Lyles had experienced against right-handed hitters on the road that I’d highlighted yesterday never materialized, and only a Dansby Swanson single kept the suggested bargain bats from a full blanking. The other, Tyler Flowers, went hitless, and since Flowers was in the lineup, Kurt Suzuki was not. The Yahoo-only special of the bunch, Ozzie Albies, also put up a zero.

Things went very well on the pitching side also. It started with Sean Manaea‘s strong matinee performance, one that was really only blemished by a sole pitch. Manaea made a mistake with renowned lefty-masher Chris Young, who tapped him for a three-run home run in the fifth inning. The southpaw was highly effective otherwise and earned both a quality start and victory.

Wade LeBlanc then provided us with a masterpiece to close out the night. The veteran lefty went deeper than he had in any game this season while also setting a new high-water mark in strikeouts on his way to befuddling the lefty-challenged Red Sox for 7.2 innings. LeBlanc’s price had been relatively minuscule across the industry — he was just $4,900 on DK, for example — so he provided massive returns for anyone who heeded the call!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Best Value(s):

Moran,Pinder, Semien, LeBlanc lead the way– As I like to say, it’s always a happy occasion when we have multiple players to talk about in this section. Moran, Pinder and Semien provided the muscle with a homer each, while LeBlanc was brilliant. Pinder in particular proved an unsolvable puzzle for the Angels, which also saw him touch them up for a single and triple and score three times overall.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Biggest Dud(s):

Braves bats go silent- Atlanta right-handed hitters were surprisingly no match for Jordan Lyles, who channeled his inner Cy Young in a pitcher’s duel with Sean Newcomb. Suggested plays Tyler Flowers, Dansby Swanson and Yahoo special Ozzie Albies went a combined 1-for-11.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, June 17th All Slates

With our look back now complete, time to turn our attention to finding bargains for today’s slates!

Welcome to the Sunday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the day’s ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about both format and content:

• The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
• Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
• Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft).  However, there are certainly occasions, particularly with Yahoo, where one site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as a “XYZ site-only special”.
• This version of the Bargain Bin isn’t a position-by-position breakdown. Rather, I try to identify where there is a particular vulnerability in terms of pitchers on the slate. Naturally, the amount of pitchers I suggest to target and the corresponding amount of value hitters to target them with will vary by slate.
• The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s take a look at where there’s cash to be saved on Sunday’s various slates!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, June 17th All Slates

Bargain Pitching Spots to Consider

C.C. Sabathia, NYY vs. TAM– Yahoo ($35)/ FanDuel ($6,600)/ DraftKings ($7,600)/ FantasyDraft ($14,800)

Sabathia is once again mostly defying Father Time this season, as he boasts a 4-1 record and is  giving up sub-30-percent hard contact. He’s even boasting his highest swinging strike rate (10.3 percent) since 2014, lending credence to the notion that he still has plenty left in the tank. Sabathia is also boasting a 2.57 ERA at Yankee Stadium over 35 home innings, and he’s facing a Rays squad that’s had a rough go of it against lefties over the last month of play. The Rays sport an anemic .206 average, .278 wOBA and 76 wRC+ versus that handedness during that span, along with a 25.0 percent strikeout rate. Sabathia has allowed three earned runs or less in four of his last five trips to the mound, and with the Rays rolling out another “bullpen day” Sunday, he stands to get plenty of run support from his teammates as well.

Trevor Richards, MIA at BAL- Yahoo ($31)/ FanDuel ($5,900)/ DraftKings ($7,900)/ FantasyDraft ($15,000)

Pricing on DK and FantasyDraft is actually starting to catch up to Richards a bit, but he still represents solid value there and is especially bargain-priced on the other two sites. His won-loss record may not be pretty, but the young right-hander has shown nice flashes and gets an appealing matchup versus the strikeout-prone Orioles on Sunday.

Baltimore checks in with an AL-low .184 average and .254 wOBA versus right-handed pitching at home over the last month, along with an MLB-worst 56 wRC+. They’re also striking out at a 27.8 percent clip against righties during that stretch, the highest figure in the majors. Richards has shown some decent strikeout numbers (30 over 34.2 innings) and has done a very good job keeping the ball in the park (four homers given up, 1.04 HR/9). He’s had a couple of rough starts on the road, but he also posted a whopping 10 strikeouts of the Dodgers over just 4.2 innings in their home park as well, the tournament upside is there.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, June 17th All Slates

Yankees vs. Rays

Target: Rays “bullpen day”opening pitcher Wilmer Font and Rays bullpen

Metric(s) to Target:

Font: .453 wOBA (including five homers) allowed to left-handed hitters/.391 wOBA (including six homers) allowed to right-handed hitters, including .415 on the road/ 29.4 percent HR/FB rate and 47.5 percent hard contact rate allowed to left-handed hitters, including 52.4 percent on the road/ 28.6 percent HR/FB rate allowed to right-handed hitters on the road, 43.1 percent hard contact rate allowed to them overall.

Rays bullpen: Most bullpen innings pitched thus far in June (67.1)

Yankees Bargain Bats to Consider:

*Literally any Yankee bat in the lineup today of either handedness that is priced reasonably is in play. With respect to value pricing, that would naturally leave out the likes of Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar. Stanton is also naturally priced high on most sites, but take note of his Yahoo price directly below, which represents a nice discount. There are also some other slight price variances on some of the other players between sites, but most everyone not named in this paragraph is priced at least moderately reasonably on a couple of the four sites at minimum.

Yahoo-only special:

Giancarlo Stanton ($16)

Pirates vs. Reds

Target: Reds SP Anthony DeSclafani 

Metric(s) to Target:

.400 average and .429 wOBA  allowed to left-handed hitters (28 batter-sample)/36.4 percent line drive rate and 33.3 percent hard contact rate allowed to left-handed hitters/.300 average and .353 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters in career.

Pirates Bargain Bats to Consider:

Austin Meadows-Yahoo ($15)/ FanDuel ($3,100)/ DraftKings ($3,900)/ FantasyDraft ($7,600)

Corey Dickerson-Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($2,800)/ DraftKings ($4,000)/ FantasyDraft ($7,200)

Josh Bell-Yahoo ($11)/ FanDuel ($3,100)/ DraftKings ($3,500)/ FantasyDraft ($6,500)

Gregory Polanco-Yahoo ($11)/ FanDuel ($3,200)/ DraftKings ($3,700)/ FantasyDraft ($7,700)

Colin Moran-Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($2,500)/ DraftKings ($3,100)/ FantasyDraft ($5,900)

Rockies at Rangers

Target: Rangers SP Yovani Gallardo and Rangers bullpen

Metric(s) to Target:

Gallardo: .338 wOBA (including 10 homers) allowed to left-handed hitters in 2017/1.51 WHIP and 5.33 xFIP allowed to left-handed hitters in 2017/ .359 wOBA (including 14 homers) allowed to right-handed hitters in 2017/1.92 HR/9 and 5.07 xFIP allowed to right-handed hitters in 2017/ 35.9 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters in 2017.

Rangers bullpen: 15 extra-base hits, including six homers, 22.3 percent line drive rate and 49.5 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters at home over last month of play/ 39.2 percent hard contact allowed to left-handed hitters at home over last month of play.

Rockies Bargain Bats to Consider:

Gerardo Parra-Yahoo ($16)/ FanDuel ($2,800)/ DraftKings ($3,400)/ FantasyDraft ($6,600)

Tom Murphy-Yahoo ($9)/ FanDuel ($2,800)/ DraftKings ($3,300)/ FantasyDraft ($6,700)

Noel Cuevas-Yahoo ($8)/ FanDuel ($2,000)/ DraftKings ($3,300)/ FantasyDraft ($6,700)

Next: FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups

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