DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Monday, June 18

Welcome into the Monday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game breakdown article! We have a nice sized 10 game slate on hand so let’s get rolling.

Sunday brought us a decent slate where we cashed in all our 50/50s but didn’t sniff anything in tournaments. I must have been a weird day because the cash lines were very low. It didn’t help that Dylan Bundy and Aaron Nola both had very average starts. We don’t always get a bigger slate on Mondays but we’ll certainly take this one for tonight.

MILWAUKEE, WI – JULY 02: Eric Thames #7 and Ryan Braunn #8 of the Milwaukee Brewers celebrate after Thames hit a home run in the third inning against the Miami Marlins at Miller Park on July 2, 2017 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

DFS MLB – Brewers at Pirates

Brewers Probable Starter – Jhoulys Chacin, RHP 

3.32 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 18.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .255 average, .327 wOBA, 35.4 fly ball rate and 38.9 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .189 average, .249 wOBA, 43.0 fly ball rate and 40.9 hard contact rate

Chacin continues to be a volatile pitcher on a per start basis. He’s either given up zero or more than four earned in runs in his last five starts. The issue with Chacin for fantasy is he isn’t striking out a lot of hitters. If you catch him on a day when he’s giving up runs, the ceiling is likely about 25-30 points. The Pirates strikeout against righties at just an 18.3 percent rate, second best in all of baseball. I don’t think Chacin would be someone I’d go with but I’m not heavily attacking him either. If anything, I’d side with the lefties much like the past couple days. Colin Moran keeps producing in the four hole and is firmly in play again. Gregory Polanco has started to come back to life but his price shot back up. I want to love Austin Meadows and Corey Dickerson but they haven’t looked good lately.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options -Colin Moran

Secondary Options – Gregory Polanco, Austin Meadows, Corey Dickerson

Pirates Probable Starter – Trevor Williams, RHP 

4.38 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 16.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .271 average, .335 wOBA, 37.2 fly ball rate and 25.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .226 average, .297 wOBA, 38.4 fly ball rate and 32.5 hard contact rate

My goodness has Trevor Williams been awful lately. He’s given up four or five earned runs in five of his last seven starts and you shouldn’t think about playing him today. It’s odd that some of his metrics don’t look all that bad but the Brewers are in a solid spot tonight and you could be looking at a Brewers stack. I’m leaning more towards the lefties but there’s a couple righties that would be totally fine as well. Travis Shaw and Eric Thames are both super attractive and Shaw brings a little more safety from a strikeout perspective. Christian Yelich is back under $4,000 on FanDuel and that’s a more comfortable price range for him. Jesus Aguilar and Lorenzo Cain are also fine plays though I’m not sure I’m forcing Cain into any lineups. Another great factor for Brewers hitters is the Pirates bullpen is awful.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Travis Shaw, Christian Yelich, Eric Thames

Secondary Options -Jesus Aguilar, Lorenzo Cain

Home Run Pick – Jesus Aguilar

DSF MLB – Cardinals at Phillies

Cardinals Probable Starter – Miles Mikolas, RHP 

2.43 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 18.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .270 average, .303 wOBA, 30.1 fly ball rate and 39.7 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .172 average, .199 wOBA, 23.5 fly ball rate and 28.5 hard contact rate

The metrics still look really good for Mikolas but he’s been a touch more vulnerable his past few starts. That doesn’t mean he’s been a gas can by any stretch but I’m hesitant to play him because his strikeouts have been very low in his last four starts. I flat out will not play righties against Mikolas because he has owned that side of the split. Maybe Rhys Hoskins can get to him because he’s been super hot since returning from his broken jaw but I won’t be playing him. The two hitters that are on my radar are Carlos Santana and Odubel Herrera. Both are reasonably priced and Herrera especially enjoyed his trip to Milwaukee. If you’re in need of a cheap flier, Nick Williams is your man.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Odubel Herrera

Secondary Options – Carlos Santana, Nick Williams

Phillies Probable Starter – Nick Pivetta, RHP 

4.25 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 26.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .252 average, .316 wOBA, 41.9 fly ball rate and 31.6 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .240 average, .288 wOBA, 34.0 fly ball rate and 27.0 hard contact rate

Pivetta has seen his season take a very poor turn lately as he hasn’t logged a win or quality start since the 21st of last month. There’s three Cardinals that really stand out for me this evening and the number one option would be Jose Martinez. He’ll be coming off the paternity list tonight so his price has dropped a little bit since he hasn’t played for a bit. Plus, you have the new dad narrative the day after Father’s Day narrative going. Marcell Ozuna is hit but you’re paying a monster premium for him. He’s got the seventh highest price of any hitter on the slate tonight and it doesn’t feel right paying that price. Matt Carpenter is on the better side of the splits and his price has come down after he was on a tear during the past few weeks. Pivetta has the talent to stop his skid at any point so I think it’s better to be selective with the Cardinals you play.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Martinez

Secondary Options – Matt Carpenter, Marcell Ozuna

Home Run Pick – Nick Williams

DFS MLB – Yankees at Nationals

Yankees Probable Starter – Sonny Gray, RHP 

4.98 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 19.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .242 average, .313 wOBA, 23.9 fly ball rate and 37.9 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .278 average, .354 wOBA, 35.1 fly ball rate and 30.7 hard contact rate

I always have an issue with playing pitchers against the same offense on consecutive starts and that’s even more of a policy when they got roughed up in the first start. Gray isn’t in consideration for me tonight as he put up a tiny six points in his last start in New York against these Nationals. Juan Soto got to Gray last time and I can’t blame you if you want to go back to the well. The 19-year-old phenom has been amazing since joining the majors. Bryce Harper continues to really struggle this season and his price just won’t budge. Trea Turner, Adam Eaton and Anthony Rendon could all be used but there’s nobody that really stands out as a one-off play. The Nats are a fine stacking option this evening if Gray has another poor start.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Juan Soto, Trea Turner

Secondary Options -Bryce Harper, Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon

Nationals Probable Starter – Erick Fedde, RHP 

5.91 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 20.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .238 average, .318 wOBA, 18.8 fly ball rate and 43.8 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .333 average, .384 wOBA, 47.1 fly ball rate and 47.1 hard contact rate

Fedde has under 11 IP in his short career so the splits aren’t totally settled into what they may look like in a bigger sample. It’s still hard to not notice the difference in the fly ball rate and the Yankees will certainly be popular. I’m not usually one to put a lot of stock into home/road splits unless we’re talking about the Rockies but it’s hard to ignore Aaron Judge being terrible on the road. He’s not even hitting .175 away from Yankee Stadium and that gives me some pause before sinking almost $5,000 into him on FanDuel. I might be a little more inclined to spend on Giancarlo Stanton or Gary Sanchez tonight. None of this is to say the Yanks are a bad play against an inexperienced pitcher. Fedde didn’t do well in Yankee Stadium and tonight shouldn’t be much different.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Options – Aaron Judge, Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres

Home Run Pick – Giancarlo Stanton

DFS MLB – White Sox at Indians

White Sox Probable Starter – Dylan Covey, RHP 

2.29 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 22.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .273 average, .299 wOBA, 26.8 fly ball rate and 26.8 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .230 average, .229 wOBA, 20.4 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard contact rate

Some players might see Covey’s name on the docket and go running towards it but there should be some hesitation there. Covey has not allowed more than two earned runs in his past five and they’ve come against Cleveland(twice), Boston, Milwaukee and Baltimore. Maybe the Indians can crack him this time since it will be their third go around but Covey has been legitimately good. His ground ball rate has to be a concern if you’re playing Indians bats. He’s also not getting hit hard from either side of the plate. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if Covey finally gave up some runs here but don’t be shocked if he’s much better than the perception is around him. Stick with the best Indians hitters or steer clear of this one.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Options- Michael Brantley

Indians Probable Starter – Trevor Bauer, RHP 

2.69 average, 1.12 WHIP and 31.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .209 average, .263 wOBA, 35.8 fly ball rate and 37.4 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .209 average, .270 wOBA, 35.5 fly ball rate and 38.4 hard contact rate

Bauer is the highest salaried player on a slate with Gerrit Cole and that’s not something I thought I would type this season. Granted, it’s not by much but it’s still facts. Even though Bauer gave up three runs in his last start against the White Sox, I won’t be playing any Chicago hitters. If you wanted a deep tournament play, Yoan Moncada is under $3,000 and could potentially run into a ball for a homer. I wouldn’t expect that but I suppose it’s possible. Bauer is an elite play in all formats.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Yoan Moncada

Home Run Pick – Francisco Lindor

DFS MLB – Dodgers at Cubs

Dodgers Probable Starter – Kenta Maeda, RHP 

3.61 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 28.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .287 average, .356 wOBA, 35.8 fly ball rate and 36.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .194 average, .261 wOBA, 35.7 fly ball rate and 32.4 hard contact rate

I virtually never play Maeda because he’s one of the highest risk pitchers in baseball. He’s really good but you’ve got a solid chance of him leaving mid-start with an injury. Going in on him in Wrigley Field against a good offense doesn’t seem like the best idea either. If the wind is blowing out in Wrigley tonight, the lefties for Chicago look pretty appealing. The fly ball and hard hit rates aren’t that good and the average is higher than Maeda would like as well. It’s hard not to like Kyle Schwarber at $3,400 even though he is the poster boy for risk/reward with his strikeout rate. Anthony Rizzo might be a bit safe but is more expensive. Ben Zobrist is under $3,000 but I’m not sure how high the ceiling is for him. If you play cash games, Tommy La Stella is likely to be the free square at minimum price. Javier Baez was hit with a pitch Sunday night and may or may not play.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Tommy La Stella(if active)

Secondary Options – Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist

Cubs Probable Starter – Tyler Chatwood, RHP 

4.12 ERA, 1.75 WHIP and 19.9 strikeout rate (19.9 BB rate)

Vs LHH – .276 average, .372 wOBA, 26.8 fly ball rate and 33.7 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .173 average, .285 wOBA, 23.9 fly ball rate and 23.6 hard contact rate

It’s always a bit of a conundrum when Chatwood pitches. He is not a good pitcher and I always want to really target him with hitters. The issue is he walks so many people and he gives up such little hard contact that he’s actually only surrendered three home runs all season. The Dodgers have a top 10 walk rate against righties so maybe the lack of homers just won’t matter. I wouldn’t have any issues stacking the Dodgers in this spot but if you just want to roll with one or two hitters, it’s Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson or Max Muncy. Pederson might lead off and is under $3,000. Both Bellinger and Muncy can get a hold of a ball in a hurry. This is a bad spot for Chatwood and he may not be long for this game.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Joc Pederson(especially if leading off), Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger

Secondary Options – Matt Kemp, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner

Home Run Pick – Cody Bellinger

DFS MLB – Rays at Astros

Rays Probable Starter – Ryne Stanek, RHP 

Stanek is the “opener” for the Rays and the rest of the Tampa bullpen might be playing rock, paper scissor to not enter this game. Houston is just scoring runs at will right now and I don’t think any Rays pitcher is up to the task of cooling them off. We’ll see who is supposed to get the majority of the innings through the day but it really doesn’t matter all that much. If an Astros hitter is in the lineup, he’s good to go. If we find out that the Rays are hoping to pitch a lefty for the bulk of the game, don’t overlook Max Stassi at $2,500 on FanDuel. He’s a lefty masher and is actually in play even if a righty is on the hill. He’s coming for Brian McCann‘s job right now.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, George Springer

Secondary Options – Max Stassi, Evan Gattis, Josh Reddick

Astros Probable Starter – Gerrit Cole, RHP 

2.40 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 36.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .174 average, .242 wOBA, 49.4 fly ball rate and 29.9 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .176 average, .252 wOBA, 45.8 fly ball rate and 36.7 hard contact rate

We’ve arrived at who will likely be my choice of pitcher for cash games. He’s been a little bit more hittable lately but he’s also been pitching against good offenses like Cleveland, Boston and Oakland. The Rays can’t match those offenses and Cole at home against an offense with little power is an easy call for me. There probably won’t be much of a difference in points between Bauer and Cole so I’ll take the slight savings and pitch Cole tonight. I won’t play any hitters against the big righty tonight.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – George Springer

ARLINGTON, TX – SEPTEMBER 26: Elvis Andrus #1 of the Texas Rangers hits an RBI single in the first inning of a baseball game against the Houston Astros at Globe Life Park in Arlington on September 26, 2017 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard W. Rodriguez/Getty Images)

DFS MLB – Rangers at Royals

Rangers Probable Starter – Bartolo Colon, RHP 

4.94 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 15.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .254 average, .326 wOBA, 35.0 fly ball rate and 43.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .254 average, .342 wOBA, 31.3 fly ball rate and 46.3 hard contact rate

Big Sexy is always a pitcher we like to target but it’s getting hard to find a Royals hitter that I want to roster. Jorge Soler is on the disabled list with a broken toe. Whit Merrifield might not be active after having to leave Sunday’s game because he fouled a ball off his knee. That leaves us with Salvador Perez and Mike Moustakas as the main plays and Alex Gordon and Paulo Orland as fliers. The first two hitters are definitely a good notch above the second pair. Colon himself still isn’t someone I’d look to play but I also won’t have a huge piece of the Royals offense since they are so beat up right now.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield(if he plays)

Secondary Options – Alex Gordon, Paulo Orlando

Royals Probable Starter – Ian Kennedy, RHP 

5.13 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 20.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .276 average, .357 wOBA, 44.9 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .290 average, .357 wOBA, 38.9 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard contact rate

I targeted Kennedy his last time out and he owned the Reds but I don’t think he’s going to repeat that effort tonight. There appears to be a good chance that Elvis Andrus will make his return and I do have some interest since he’s just $3,200 on FanDuel. Before his injury, he had a .415 wOBA against righties and Kennedy shouldn’t present that much of a challenge. The Rangers being lefty heavy isn’t exactly a good thing for Kennedy either and my nemesis Joey Gallo sure is attractive at just $2,900. Even Rougned Odor could be in play tonight if you want a cheap part of the Rangers offense. Texas can be risky since they strike out so much but they are in a great spot.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Joey Gallo, Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre

Secondary Options – Elvis Andrus, Rougned Odor

Home Run Pick – Mike Moustakas

DFS MLB – Mets at Rockies

Mets Probable Starter – Jacob deGrom, RHP 

1.55 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 32.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .228 average, .271 wOBA, 27.6 fly ball rate and 21.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .178 average, .207 wOBA, 30.2 fly ball rate and 27.6 hard contact rate

This side of the game is one of the trickier ones on the slate. deGrom has been dominant so far this year but I almost never pitch anyone in Coors, no matter how good they’ve been. The Rockies hitters also haven’t seen the normal Coors Field pricing bump, which makes me want to play them and hope for a deGrom implosion. I just can’t decide which way to go at this point. The metrics for deGrom obviously wouldn’t lead us to play Rockies hitters but lefties are slightly better off. Charlie Blackmon is about as cheap as he’ll ever be at home and Carlos Gonzalez is also affordable. I think this side of the game is better left alone for cash games and then you pick a side in tournaments.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Charlie Blackmon

Secondary Options – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Carlos Gonzalez

Rockies Probable Starter – Tyler Anderson, LHP 

4.48 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 20.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .308 average, .407 wOBA, 35.1 fly ball rate and 29.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .235 average, .314 wOBA, 42.0 fly ball rate and 33.7 hard contact rate

If you like living dangerously, Tyler Anderson could be a great tournament play. Yes, I don’t normally play pitchers in Coors Field. It’s just not profitable in the long run. However, Anderson draws the best matchup for lefty pitchers in baseball. The Mets are dead last in average, OPS, slugging, ISO and wOBA against lefty pitching this year. Most of those categories aren’t even close either. They have the secondary highest strikeout rate as well. Since it’s Coors Field, there’s still some interest in Mets but not as much as I would normally have in Denver. I might even take a shot at Brandon Nimmo since Anderson has reverse splits but the Mets have a tough road to overcome their deficiencies  abasing lefty pitching.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Asdrubal Cabrera, Todd Frazier

Secondary Options – Brandon Nimmo

Home Run Pick – Trevor Story

DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Angels

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Zack Greinke, RHP 

3.87 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 26.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .244 average, .313 wOBA, 31.0 fly ball rate and 43.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .242 average, .309 wOBA, 40.0 fly ball rate and 45.9 hard contact rate

I’m not sure why Greinke is still so expensive other than his name value. He’s gone over 40 FanDuel points just three times this season and the Angels lineups might have their way with him tonight. Mike Trout, Justin Upton and Ian Kinsler are all perfectly fine options. Trout is obviously expensive but he should be. Upton and Kinsler are far more affordable and I always like to have a hitter going late if it makes sense. If you’re into BvP data, Luis Valbuena has some good history against Greinke. The veteran Diamondbacks pitcher is giving up too much hard contact for there not be more average or poor starts coming.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mike Trout, Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler

Secondary Options – Luis Valbuena, Andrelton Simmons

Angels Probable Starter – Jamie Barria, RHP 

2.61 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 18.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .234 average, .267 wOBA, 34.5 fly ball rate and 32.2 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .238 average, .328 wOBA, 47.7 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard contact rate

The rookie for the Angels have really only had one bad start and that came against the Yankees in New York. That’s the only time in eight starts he’s given up more than two earned runs and Arizona hasn’t been the best against righties over the course of the season. Now, they have gotten hot over the past couple of weeks. they have six hitters with an average over .300 in that time span led by Paul Goldschmidt. His price is high and there are two outfielders that are much cheaper and just as interesting. David Peralta and Jon Jay are very affordable tonight on the right side of their splits. It’s just going to come down to how much you believe in Barria being able to cool off the Diamondbacks offense.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Paul Goldschmidt, David Peralta, Jon Jay

Secondary Options – Jake Lamb, Daniel Descalso

Home Run Pick – David Peralta

DFS MLB – Marlins at Giants

Marlins Probable Starter – Caleb Smith, LHP 

3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 27.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .291 average, .323 wOBA, 37.5 fly ball rate and 36.7 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .176 average, .277 wOBA, 56.1 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard contact rate

If you guys have been reading Brian Tulloch’s Picks and Pivots column, you know the late games on these kinds of slates typically carry no ownership. I’ve gotten Dodgers in great spots at under five percent ownership recently and this game will be no exception. Nobody is going to play Giants or Marlins on the back-end of the slate tonight. Smith is a talented pitcher but the Giants have good hitters against lefty pitching. The high-end hitter is Andrew McCutchen who has been in the middle of his patented hot streaks. On the cheaper end, Nick Hundley and Mac Williamson both have wOBA’s over .400 and are under $2,900 on FanDuel. I don’t think I’ll have much interest in Smith tonight.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Andrew McCutchen, Nick Hundley

Secondary Options – Mac Williamson, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford

Giants Probable Starter – Andrew Suarez, LHP 

4.92 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 22.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .193 average, .232 wOBA, 35.0 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .300 average, .366 wOBA, 30.1 fly ball rate and 44.4 hard contact rate

Even though Justin Bour is coming off a big game yesterday(I wish I would have played him after I called for a home run), there’s really only one hitter that I would have any interest in tonight and it’s J.T. Realmuto. He has the power to take Suarez out of the park, regardless of it being in San Francisco. Brian Anderson is also in play but he’s more expensive than Realmuto so I can’t go there. You can take a stab at Suarez but it doesn’t seem needed tonight.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – J.T. Realmuto

Secondary Options -Brian Anderson

Home Run Pick – Brandon Belt

DFS MLB FanDuel Sample Lineup

P- Gerrit Cole 

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C/1B – Nick Hundley 

2B – Rougned Odor

3B – Adrian Beltre

SS – Andrelton Simmons 

OF – Jon Jay, Joc Pederson, Kyle Schwarber

Utility – Eric Thames 

Cole is a borderline locked in for me, although it is very hard to turn away from Bauer at home against the White Sox. It certainly wouldn’t be difficult to get to Bauer since we’re already playing Cole. We’ll take a couple of solid punts with Hundley and Odor and that helps get to the bats we want to play. Beltre has a great matchup for his skill set as well. Shortstop is a little difficult to find much past the high-end players but Simmons is perfect for that role. We have a nice outfield set up, especially if the wind is blowing out in Chicago. It would be awesome if it is although that would make the game far more popular. Eric Thames would be a great one-off as long as he’s leading off.

The Core –  Nick Hundley, Joc Pederson, Eric Thames

Stacks to Consider – Yankees(at Washington), Astros(vs Tampa), Cubs and Dodgers game stack, Brewers(at Pittsburgh)

Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.