DraftKings MLB Picks June 18: Another Bauer-Covey duel?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks June 18: Another Bauer-Covey duel?
We have a pretty busy Monday with ten games going on. The Yankees and Nationals game is out of all of the tournaments due to them playing the end of the suspended game before the start of this one. This isn’t available in any mode, which takes quite a few bats off the table. We have a couple of stud pitchers going though. Which one should we build around? We also have a stacked middle tier here, which means we could completely go out of the upper tier. That was the way to go on Friday. What about tonight?
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There is a high chance of rain in Cleveland in the later innings, but it shouldn’t really threaten the starting pitchers. At any rate, this game should be official before they have to take the players off the field. Just keep an eye on this. Watch out for a delay in start time at Wrigley, but the game should play.
We do have a little bit of wind out there. tonight. The wind is blowing out to left at 12 mph in Pittsburgh and to center at the same speed in Philadelphia. It is also the same speed out to right in Cleveland. There is a bit of a cross breeze in Wrigley but we know that could turn at any moment. There is a 14 mph wind out to left in Kansas City, which could help the power in that game. The wind is blowing out to center at the same speed in San Francisco, but that’s nothing new.
We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. Stacking against a bad pitcher is always a good idea!
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Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays
Top Tier:
Gerrit Cole ($13,000): The price is high on Cole, but it should be. The Rays are only hitting .209 off of Cole with one homer and three runs in 43 at bats. Interestingly enough, Cole only has eight strikeouts against them so far. That’s going to change tonight. Cole is having a breakout season in Houston, and he is going to pad those stats here tonight against a weak Rays offense.
Trevor Bauer ($12,400): This looks like another duel between Bauer and Covey, but the price difference is a staggering $5,400. Covey is much more prone to a blow up because Bauer has dominated the White Sox both this year and over his career. Bauer picked up 31.7 DraftKings points in the loss to them last week. The Sox are only hitting .196 in 112 at bats against Bauer now with just one homer and eight runs with a monstrous 38 strikeouts. The upside is huge for Bauer, and he should be the high scorer of the night.
Middle Tier:
Miles Mikolas ($8,300): Mikolas seems to have struggled against the teams he should succeed against, like the Padres last week. He wasn’t hit hard. Mikolas really hasn’t been all season. That’s why I still like him here against Philly. The Phillies’ offense is all or nothing, and Mikolas is far more likely to have a solid game than a clunker. The price is right here on Mikolas with adequate potential.
Jaime Barria ($8,100): Barria continues to pitch well in his rookie season. I know Arizona is catching fire right now, but Barria has only given up more than two earned runs once. That was against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium. Barria has a 2.14 ERA in four home starts. I expect another solid outing here tonight.
Jhoulys Chacin ($7,500): The Pirates are only hitting .211 off of Chacin in 38 at bats with no homers and just one run. Chacin is not a big strikeout guy, so that does limit his upside. However, a date with Trevor Williams virtually assures Chacin a win. Chacin picked up 16.5 DraftKings points in a solid performance against Pittsburgh earlier this season. Expect him around that mark once again.
Bargain Pitchers:
Dylan Covey ($7,000): It’s hard not to take notice of what Covey has done this year. Covey is 3-1 with a 2.29 ERA in six starts this season. Half of those have come against Cleveland, so he has proven that he can hold his own against the Tribe. That said, Covey’s worst start was in Cleveland three weeks ago. That puts the added risk back in here, but Covey outdueled Bauer, tonight’s opponent, in his last start. Covey has given up only three runs (two earned) in his three starts since that start in Cleveland. Can he keep it up here?
Andrew Suarez ($6,800): The Marlins didn’t do that well against Suarez in Miami, and Suarez averages double the DraftKings points at home as on the road. Suarez could be overlooked on the left coast tonight, but I really like the value potential here. Covey has a higher ceiling, but Suarez has the least risk attached in this price range.
Ian Kennedy ($5,600): Kennedy has been slightly less miserable at home this year, but he has turned in two solid starts lately. In fact, Kennedy only gave up two runs in five innings against Texas earlier this year, but still only picked up 10.5 DraftKings points due to the lack of strikeouts. That probably wont change here, but for the price, that’s a decent return. Especially if you pay for the right hitters. The Rangers are only hitting .181 off of Kennedy in 83 at bats with just one homer, four runs, and a solid 20 strikeouts. There is pretty good potential for the price here.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Trevor WIlliams:
Williams has not given up less than four runs in a start in more than a month. PNC Park isn’t going to help Milwaukee’s power, but Williams has been giving up some many hits that it may not matter. I like Lorenzo Cain a lot here, and it’s hard not to be enamored with the power of Shaw and Thames. Ryan Braun and Christian Yelich are certainly worth a look as well.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tyler Chatwood:
The Dodgers have the highest wOBA in the majors in June. Yes, Chatwood has pitched better than expected this year, but the Dodgers are hitting a robust .287 against Chatwood with three homers and 18 runs in just 87 at bats. Some of those numbers are skewed by Coors Field, but not all of them. Grandal, Joc Pederson, and Matt Kemp has all homered off of Chatwood. All three of them are going to find their way into my lineup. Puig and Justin Turner are also worth a look.
Houston Astros vs. the Tampa Bullpen:
The roof will be closed in Houston with rain in the forecast, but there should still be a lot of balls flying for the Astros here. Springer, Altuve, and Correa are the top dogs and a priced like it, but Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel are starting to hit lately. I also am very interested in the red hot Evan Gattis. You can go anywhere 1-9 with the Houston offense here.
Next: Other notes for 6-18
Top Tier:
The Cardinals have actually hit Nick Pivetta pretty hard, but Pivetta has pitched better at home. You are either on one side of this or the other. I think I’m on the side of the Cardinals tonight. Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna, and Gyorko have already homered off of Pivetta. Will it be one of the usual suspects or someone else tonight?
If you are one of those that think Chacin is heading for a blowup at any moment, Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson are worth a look, though PNC Park goes a long ways towards oppressing power.
Michael Brantley is definitely worth a look against Covey with the way he has been hitting, but I’m not looking to stack Cleveland here. I see most of them as overpriced. Covey looks like he can keep this up. If I’m attacking Covey, it would be with Brantley and cheaper options like Kipnis or Yan Gomes.
Surprisingly, the Cubs have never faced Kenta Maeda. However, the Dodgers limited his pitches in his last outing, and could here as well. I really like Rizzo here, and Kris Bryant is worth a look as well. I will hold off of a full stack since the Dodgers bullpen is likely better than the starter today, but I want some exposure to this.
The Angels have hit Greinke hard from his days in the American League. They are hitting .291 with four homers and 23 runs in 151 at bats. Mike Trout is 5-13 with four RBI, but doesn’t have a homer against Greinke yet. Justin Upton is 10-29(.345) with a homer and three RBI. Valbuena is 11-26(.423) with a homer and two RBI. You can build a solid stack against Zack here, but Greinke is 5-3 with a 2.93 ERA in ten career starts in Anaheim.
Yes, Barria has been good, but I still want Paul Goldschmidt here. I wont go deeper than that, but Goldy is coming around after a slow start.
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Middle Tier:
I’m not a big fan of any Phillies, but Odubel Herrera is still worth a look if you are looking at a one off.
The wind is blowing out to left in KC, there is a pitcher older than I am facing the home team, and I still wont stack against him. This offense doesn’t have nearly enough promise. I am interested in Moose and Salvador Perez tonight though, just in case.
The Giants hit Caleb Smith pretty well in Miami. Andrew McCutchen did a bulk of the damage with a two run homer. He is also the only Giant that I really trust right now. Smith could still have a good start here, but his strikeout numbers are down, making him far less attractive.
Adrian Beltre is the only current Ranger to home off of Ian Kennedy. I also like Profar and Joey Gallo here.
i don’t like the price on deGrom in Coors, despite his good stats against the Rockies. If there weren’t other great options, I would be on deGrom. But I would also be on Ian Desmond, who is 5-16 with a homer and five RBI off of deGrom. CarGo is worth a look as well, but beyond that, I’m not interested in any other Rockies.
Bargain Shoppers:
Lefty killer Wilmer Flores it too cheap in Coors Field against the left handed Tyler Anderson. I don’t trust much more of the Mets offense, but Dominic Smith is an interesting pick as well. If you are looking to spend more, Nimmo and Asdrubal Cabrera could be worth a look.
The Sanchez formerly known as Carlos is the only current Chicago player to hit a homer against Trevor Bauer. It is his only hit in 22 at bats. Good luck with that!
Lewis Brinson is heating up, and could be worth a look against the lefty Suarez.
Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns
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