MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Monday, June 18th Main Slate

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tout Transparency Report for Sunday, June 17th

Before we get to today’s MLB DFS Bargain Bin recommendations, we’ll look back at how Sunday’s MLB DFS Bargain Bin play suggestions did in the MLB DFS Bargain Bin Tout Transparency Report.

In the interest of transparency and tracking trends, I’ll do a quick review after each day in which I suggest value plays to see what went right, and what didn’t exactly work out as planned.

Father’s Day turned out to be an exciting day of baseball overall, with a few surprises thrown in for good measure. One of those was certainly how effective Rays “bullpen day” starter Wilmer Font was against the Yankees in their own home park. Font went a strong 4.2 innings and surrendered just one run, but fortunately, that came from one of the many suggested Yankees bargain bats in Aaron Hicks, who tagged him for a solo home run in the fifth. Additionally, even though the Yankees surprisingly scored just one run all afternoon, bargain bat Didi Gregorius (2-for-3, triple, walk) and Yahoo-only selection Giancarlo Stanton (1-for-3, one walk) also made contributions.

In the Steel City, the Pirates got off to a slow start against Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani, but the two hitters that did get to him during his five inning-stint were both suggested bargain bats. Colin Moran came through with a home run for a second straight Bargain Bin appearance, while Gregory Polanco also launched a blast against DeSclafani in the fifth. I’d cited DeScalfani’s well-established struggles against left-handed hitters in yesterday’s Bargain Bin, and both players helped bear that out with their round trippers. Polanco later added a double off Raisel Iglesias and went 3-for-3 overall, while other suggested Pirates bargain bats Josh Bell, Austin Meadows and Corey Dickerson contributed a single each. Meadows knocked in a run with his, while Dickerson also scored a run.

However, the best was definitely saved for last in terms of Sunday’s three bargain hitting spots, as the Rockies and Rangers played one of the wildest games of the season. I’d suggested considering three Rockies bargain bats against Rangers starter Yovani Gallardo and a bullpen that had been hit hard by both handedness  at home over the last month. One, Noel Cuevas, wasn’t in the lineup Sunday, and another, Tom Murphy, only had an RBI on the afternoon. However, the third suggestion, Gerardo Parra, came up with enough production for all three players. Parra’s breakout afternoon included  an RBI single and a pair of doubles, one of the bases-clearing variety. The four RBI-day led to a massive return for a player that was modestly priced across the industry.

The pitching front proved to be more of a mixed bag.

Marlins starter Trevor Richards was definitely a dud, giving up runs in the second, third and fourth innings before getting the hook after 75 pitches. The Orioles, who’d struggled mightily against right-handed pitchers at home, got good wood on the ball against Richards, racking up four doubles early.

Our second Bargain arm, the Yankees’ C.C. Sabathia, looked to be on his way to a troublesome outing as well by allowing three runs in the second. However, he righted the ship and ultimately finished with a season-high 10 strikeouts, validating the Rays’ documented issues making contact against left-handed pitching. Sabathia hung in for a season-high 7.2 innings despite allowing 10 hits, and he finished with a very strong return on an afternoon where it looked like things were heading south for him early.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Best Value(s):

Parra torments the Rangers, Polanco and Moran go deep–Parra was responsible for 33 percent of the Rockies’ 12-run output with a red-hot day, while Polanco had one of his best performances of what has been a mostly underwhelming season. Moran joined him in going deep against DeSclafani, his second straight game with a round tripper.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin Biggest Dud(s):

Multiple Yankees bats fall flat- It wasn’t a total washout for the Yankees thanks to Hicks’ homer and Gregorius’ two-hit day that included a triple. However, other bargain bats like Gary Sanchez, Neil Walker and Greg Bird didn’t make any contributions of note in what appeared to be a solid matchup, particularly in the early innings against Font.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Monday, June 18th Main Slate

With our look back now complete, time to turn our attention to finding bargains for today’s slates!

Welcome to the Monday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the day’s ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about both format and content:

• The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
• Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
• Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft).  However, there are certainly occasions, particularly with Yahoo, where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as a “XYZ site(s) special”.
• This version of the Bargain Bin isn’t a position-by-position breakdown. Rather, I try to identify where there is a particular vulnerability in terms of pitchers on the slate. Naturally, the amount of pitchers I suggest to target and the corresponding amount of value hitters to target them with will vary by slate.
• The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s take a look at where there’s cash to be saved Monday!

Bargain Pitching Spot to Consider

Andrew Suarez, SFG vs. MIA– Yahoo ($28)/ FanDuel ($6,600)/ DraftKings ($6,800)/ FantasyDraft ($13,800)

On the surface, Suarez’s numbers don’t necessarily inspire confidence. However, this spot against the Marlins is a potentially rewarding one for the young lefty, who held his own in a road start against them his last time out (5 IN, 2 ER). Suarez has been a much different pitcher in his cavernous home park, where he’s generated a solid 3.55 ERA, .207 BAA and .268 wOBA. Suarez also has a minuscule 0.83 WHIP and sparkling 22:2 K:BB over his 25.1 home frames, along with a pair of quality starts in four trips to the mound there.

Meanwhile, the Marlins check in sporting a .275 wOBA, 21.3 percent strikeout rate and 71 wRC+ over 169 plate appearances against southpaws on the road over the last month, and a .287 wOBA and 79 wRC+ when looked at over a larger sample of 241 plate appearances that dates back to May 1st. It’s been a struggle against lefties all season for them regardless of where they’ve faced them, as only the Mets sport a lower wOBA than the Marlins .290 figure versus that handedness since Opening Day.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Monday, June 18th Main Slate

Three Bargain Hitting Spots to Consider

Rangers at Royals

Target: Royals SP Ian Kennedy and Royals bullpen

Metric(s) to Target:

Kennedy: .357 wOBA (including five homers, four at home) allowed to left-handed hitters overall, .362 wOBA at home/3.60 BB/9 and 4.95 xFIP allowed to left-handed hitters at home/30.6 percent line drive rate (including 31.7 percent at home) and 40.0 percent hard contact rate allowed to left-handed hitters.

Royals bullpen: .446 wOBA, including 10 extra-base hits (five doubles, one triple, four home runs), allowed to left-handed hitters at home over last month of play/ 29.8 percent line drive rate and 50.0 percent hard contact rate allowed to left-handed hitters at home over last month of play./ .371 wOBA, including 19 extra-base hits (nine doubles, one triple, nine home runs) allowed to right-handed hitters at home over last month of play/ 50.0 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters at home over last month of play.

Rangers Bargain Bats to Consider:

Joey Gallo-Yahoo ($19)/ FanDuel ($2,900)/ DraftKings ($3,900)/ FantasyDraft ($7,500)

Nomar Mazara-Yahoo ($18)/ FanDuel ($3,500)/ DraftKings ($4,000)/ FantasyDraft ($7,700)

Adrian Beltre-Yahoo ($18)/ FanDuel ($3,500)/ DraftKings ($3,700)/ FantasyDraft ($7,300)

Delino DeShields-Yahoo ($13)/ FanDuel ($2,900)/ DraftKings ($3,500)/ FantasyDraft ($6,300)

Rougned Odor-Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($2,300)/ DraftKings ($3,200)/ FantasyDraft ($6,300)

Ronald Guzman–Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($2,400)/ DraftKings ($3,400)/ FantasyDraft ($6,500)

Royals vs. Rangers

Target: Rangers SP Bartolo Colon

Metric(s) to Target:

.342 wOBA (including 14 homers) /23.1 percent line drive rate and 46.3 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters, including 52.2 percent on the road/ 14.04 ERA, .449 wOBA (including three homers), 28.1 percent line drive rate and 62.5 percent hard contact rate allowed to 39 right-handed batters faced in three June starts.

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Royals Bargain Bats to Consider:

Whit Merrifield (*keep an eye on status of knee)-Yahoo ($18)/ FanDuel ($3,700)/ DraftKings ($3,800)/ FantasyDraft ($7,200)

Salvador Perez-Yahoo ($11)/ FanDuel ($3,200)/ DraftKings ($3,800)/ FantasyDraft ($7,600)

Hunter Dozier-Yahoo ($9)/ FanDuel ($2,600)/ DraftKings ($2,800)/ FantasyDraft ($5,800)

Alcides Escobar-Yahoo ($7)/ FanDuel ($2,500)/ DraftKings ($2,700)/ FantasyDraft ($5,400)

Mets at Rockies

Target: Rockies SP Tyler Anderson and Rockies bullpen

Metric(s) to Target:

Anderson: .294 BAA and .384 wOBA (including five homers) allowed to right-handed hitters at home /3.13 BB/9 and 5.01 xFIP allowed to right-handed hitters at home/36.1 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters at home.

*Note: Anderson also has very exploitable metrics against left-handed hitters, however, it’s difficult to determine which lefty Mets hitters will be allowed to face him. I suggest keeping an eye out for final lineups and consider deploying any cheap lefty bats that may have decent metrics against southpaws against him as well.

Rockies bullpen: MLB-high 11.28 ERA and .492 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters at home over last month of play/ 25.0 percent line drive rate and 44.6 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters at home over last month of play/ NL-high 2.0 HR/9 and MLB-high 6.66 xFIP allowed to right-handed hitters at home over last month of play.

Mets Bargain Bats to Consider:

Amed Rosario-Yahoo ($13)/ FanDuel ($3,100)/ DraftKings ($2,800)/ FantasyDraft ($5,800)

Jose Bautista-Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($3,000)/ DraftKings ($3,300)/ FantasyDraft ($6,400)

Wilmer Flores-Yahoo ($11)/ FanDuel ($3,400)/ DraftKings ($3,600)/ FantasyDraft ($7,400)

Yahoo/FanDuel/FantasyDraft specials:

Todd Frazier-Yahoo ($16)/ FanDuel ($3,600)/ FantasyDraft ($7,300)

Devin Mesoraco-Yahoo ($13)/ FanDuel ($3,000)/ FantasyDraft ($7,200)

Asdrubal Cabrera-Yahoo ($13)/ FanDuel ($3,300)/ FantasyDraft (8,000)

Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots

Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!