This Week in Stats: Ronaldo’s hat-trick kick started World Cup

The 2018 World Cup is underway. Cristiano Ronaldo got things going with a hat-trick, and there have been plenty more set piece goals too.

With 11 games played in the first four days of the tournament, the World Cup has started in fine style. The hosts hit the ground running, while Portugal and Spain served up a classic. It’s fair to say no team has been stunningly good so far, but are there ever any amazing performances this early in a tournament?

Dead balls and own goals

As we often mention in this column, anything can happen in a small sample of games. While it will almost certainly cool off, the World Cup has begun with a glut of set-piece goals.

In the Premier League, for instance, around a fifth of goals come from set-piece situations, yet in Russia that number is over a quarter. That isn’t that big a leap, but the proportion of penalty goals has been 16 percent, when it’s usually around five percent in domestic soccer.

There have also been three costly own goals. France and Iran both won games thanks to a defender putting the ball in his own net, and Croatia broke the deadlock in their win over Nigeria that way too.

There have also been three direct free-kick goals already. This equals the total from the entire 2014 World Cup, and they have proved to be valuable too. Aleksandar Kolarov got the winner against Costa Rica this way, and Cristiano Ronaldo completed a hat-trick with a free-kick against Spain.

With VAR seeming to ensure more penalties are given, will there be more challenges outside the box to try to prevent the concession of spot kicks? Only time will tell, but keep an eye on the free-kick goals count.

Ronaldo lit the World Cup touchpaper

Cristiano Ronaldo hasn’t previously had the best time of it at World Cups. For all he has achieved in the game, he had only scored three goals in his previous 14 games at the tournament, and never more than one per edition.

That all changed on Friday, when his hat-trick ensured Portugal and Spain shared the spoils in the Iberian derby. It also meant there was a neat symmetry in the hat-trick stakes too; it was the 51st treble of Ronaldo’s career, and the 51st in World Cup history.

He sealed it with a fabulous direct free-kick two minutes from time. Such shots are converted around five percent of the time, yet it was the Portuguese legend’s first free-kick goal from 45 attempts at major international tournaments. Perhaps he is human after all.

Ronaldo didn’t contribute much aside from his goals either. He completed eight final third passes (for context, Gerard Pique completed seven) and attempted just one dribble, which was unsuccessful.

The Real Madrid man only created one chance (and that was from inside Portugal’s half), and he attempted no crosses or tackles, while making no interceptions. But when you score three goals, does it really matter? It might for Portugal’s long-term hopes in the competition, but on Friday it was just what Ronaldo’s team needed against their fiercest rivals.

Next: The best player on every team at the World Cup

Parking the bus or playing to strengths?

There are three teams who have had over 20 shots at the World Cup, but none of them won. Argentina had 27 in their 1-1 draw with Iceland, before Germany had 26 while losing to Mexico. Brazil completed the set with 21 attempts at goal in their draw with the Swiss.

But as we know in these parts, shot quality is everything. The average shot is worth 0.1 expected goals, and Brazil’s attempts matched that figure.

However, Germany’s were worth just 0.06. Mexico may have had a lead to protect for 55 minutes, but they did so superbly. The Germans were unable to create many high quality chances.

Argentina’s average shot value was 0.08, but they had a penalty. Lionel Messi missed it; perhaps he’s human after all, etc., etc. They were prevented from having many good opportunities, though, thanks to Iceland parking the bus.

But is there anything wrong with that? When your team is composed of film makers, doctors and salt makers, why would you play openly against perhaps the greatest player of all time?

Besides, Iceland reached the quarterfinals of Euro 2016 by playing this way, so it would be foolish to expect them to change now. They had two clear-cut chances to Argentina’s one too, so it’s not as if it didn’t work.

Even if Messi had converted his penalty, Iceland would have had reason to be confident in their approach. It will be interesting to see how they play against Nigeria, when they won’t be such underdogs.