DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Tuesday, June 19

Welcome into the Tuesday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have our normal monster 15 game slate on hand for tonight so let’s dig in.

For the second time in three days, we just missed the DFS MLB cash line on a slate that I had a three run bomb in the sample lineup that didn’t make my final roster. I may not play any big stakes, but that’s highly annoying to see that happen again. I’m not going to waste a ton of time breaking down yesterday with the amount of work ahead of us. Let’s get to work.

DFS MLB – Orioles at Nationals

Orioles Probable Starter – David Hess, RHP 

4.13 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 13.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .295 average, .401 wOBA, 49.0 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .219 average, .301 wOBA, 50.0 fly ball rate and 34.5 hard contact rate

Through six starts, Hess has been getting mauled by lefty hitters. There’s a number of those types of hitters for the Nationals and players like Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Adam Eaton and Matt Adams should be on your radar this evening. Hopefully Adams gets back in the lineup because he is the cheapest played he has a .412 wOBA against righty pitching so far in 2018. Soto and Eaton are kind right in the range where it’s getting a little uncomfortable to play them but the talent level is certainly there for both guys. I don’t understand Daniel Murphy‘s price on FanDuel. Maybe I’m going to miss out on a big game, but he’s a hard pass for me at $3,600 until he shows some life. I will continue to hesitate paying for Harper right now since he’s not having the typical Bryce Harper season. Hess hasn’t been a total gas can so I won’t be targeting righties this evening.

Nationals Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Juan Soto, Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, Matt Adams

Secondary Options – Trea Turner

Nationals Probable Starter – Jefry Rodriguez, RHP

*First career start*

I rarely go to a pitcher making his debut unless thee is some high pedigree so I’m going to pass on Rodriguez tonight. This will only be his second appearance above AA ball. What we do know is he’s been a solid ground ball pitcher and carries a solid strikeout rate. I guess you could argue he’s in play at minimum price and against the Orioles offense. It’s just not a spot for me. I’d just go with Manny Machado and a guy like Mark Trumbo but this is far from my favorite spot of the night.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Optons – Manny Machado

Secondary Options – Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones

Home Run Pick – Bryce Harper shows up

DFS MLB – Brewers at Pirates

Brewers Probable Starter – Freddy Peralta, RHP 

3.72 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 45.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .158 average, .302 wOBA, 11.1 fly ball rate and 22.2 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .077 average, .207 wOBA, 40.0 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard contact rate

Peralta will only be making his third start in the majors and he’s had a mixed bag in his previous two. In his first, he struck out 13 Colorado hitters in Coors Field. His second one was where the issues came as he walked six Twins. He’s probably a risk/reward option but not one I’m jamming into my lineups. His price is certainly right on FanDuel at just $6,700 if you want to take the shot because the Pirates offense has the tendency to not show up some games. If you want Bucco hitters, I’d lean towards hoping the fly ball rate and hard contact rate come back to bite Peralta. The Pirates don’t really have any elite hitters if the matchup isn’t right. Jordy Mercer could be a cheap punt at shortstop, hitting .313 the past 14 days. This side of the game is GPP only.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Josh Harrison, Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli, Austin Meadows

Pirates Probable Starter – Jameson Taillon, RHP 

3.94 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 22.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .275 average, .352 wOBA, 30.9 fly ball rate and 33.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .210 average, .236 wOBA, 33.0 fly ball rate and 25.7 hard contact rate

Milwaukee has a high strikeout rate against righties that could be appealing and one thing that should be noted is Taillon has added a slider to his repertoire and seen very positive results. The first appearance over five percent was on May 22nd. That game was rough for Taillon but since then, he’s made four starts and thrown the slider at least 26 percent of the time. Since then, he’s logged 26.1 innings, stuck out 23 batters and given up eight earned runs. I’m not saying he’s been crazy dominant but his results have shown noticeable improvement with the pitch. If you’re going against Taillon, you’re on the same lefties you were yesterday. Christian Yelich and Eric Thames are a hair pricey with aces and Coors Field on the slate, as is Travis Shaw with a banged up wrist. Jonathan Villar is a solid play because he can steal a base just like he did last night.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eric Thames, Jonathan Villar

Secondary Options -Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw

Home Run Pick – Jonathan Villar

DFS MLB – Mariners at Yankees

Mariners Probable Starter – Marco Gonzales, LHP 

3.42 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 21.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .233 average, .261 wOBA, 25.0 fly ball rate and 31.6 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .276 average, .321 wOBA, 25.4 fly ball rate and 33.5 hard contact rate

It’s never an easy task to pitch against the Yankees in New York. It’s even harder as a lefty since at least six Yankee regulars have an ISO of over .200 against lefty pitching. The two that lead the pack are actually at reasonable price points(for them) in Gary Sanchez and Giancarlo Stanton. The other four everyday players with that ISO rating are Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks. It’s going to be interesting to see how the day goes as far as which offense will be more popular. The Rockies have a dream matchup which we’ll get to in a bit but the Yankees are  in a smash spot. Gonzales hasn’t been a pitcher I’ve gone against a lot this year but this could be the exception.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge

Secondary Options – Aaron Hicks, Miguel Andujar

Yankees Probable Starter – Domingo German, RHP 

5.23 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 27.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .198 average, .282 wOBA, 41.3 fly ball rate and 32.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .255 average, .339 wOBA, 33.8 fly ball rate and 43.1 hard contact rate

I’m extremely torn on what to do with German tonight. Seattle is a very solid offense against righty pitching and German I pitching at home. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t give up at least two or three runs but man, those strikeouts sure are appealing. You have to understand you’re walking the razor’s edge here but his swinging strike rate is off the charts. It’s sitting at 15.9 percent which is higher than Jacob deGrom, Chris Sale and Gerrit Cole, among many others. If you play him, you’re hoping for double-digit strikeouts or a quality start and a win(preferably both, but not the likeliest scenario). Since we think German will give up runs, I want the righty hitters with power on the high-end. Nelson Cruz and Mitch Haniger fit that bill and if you want the players that could have some runs/stolen bases potential, Dee Gordon and Denard Span would be it. Jean Segura is far too expensive for my tastes.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mitch Haniger, Nelson Cruz

Secondary Options – Denard Span, Dee Gordon

Home Run Pick – Mitch Haniger and Miguel Andujar

DFS MLB – Cardinals at Phillies

Cardinals Probable Starter – Luke Weaver, RHP 

4.52 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 20.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .294 average, .340 wOBA, 31.9 fly ball rate and 33.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .219 average, .281 wOBA, 36.5 fly ball rate and 35.5 hard contact rate

Weaver hasn’t quite fulfilled his praise yet this season and we’re going right towards the lefties in this matchup. Odubel Herrera has started to hit again and his salary hasn’t quite caught up yet. Cesar Hernandez and Carlos Santana are also ver close to the same salary and are quite. interesting this evening. The middle of the Philly offense is too good to be quiet for too long and they’re hitting once again. Tonight could be one of the last chances to get on some of them before the price goes back up again. I can’t really see a reason to play Weaver since there are enough lefties to do damage to him. He’s averaging under 20 FanDuel points on the season.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana

Secondary Options – Rhys Hoskins

Phillies Probable Starter – Vince Velasquez, RHP 

4.74 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 28.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .267 average, .362 wOBA, 46.2 fly ball rate and 31.4 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .217 average, .271 wOBA,  36.4 fly ball rate and 33.0 hard contact rate

I was on Vince Velasquez last start and he paid off handsomely since he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning. He would up giving up a couple runs in that Fram but still was over 40 FanDuel points. The thing with Velasquez is he can handle righties while lefties are what hurts him. Tonight, he draws a Cardinals offense that is very righty heavy. The same scenario played out last night with Nick Pivetta, who I should have paid more attention to. Pivetta had his way with double-digit strikeouts. You know what kind of night you’re signing up for if Velasquez is your man. It could end with 50 points or you could be sitting at -7. Matt Carpenter is the only Cardinals bat I would pay for tonight.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Options – Jose Martinez

Home Run Pick – Odubel Herrera stays hot

DFS MLB – Braves at Blue Jays

Braves Probable Starter – Mike Soroka, RHP 

2.57 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 21.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .200 average, .220 wOBA, 15.6 fly ball rate and 24.2 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .333 average, .368 wOBA, 25.0 fly ball rate and 31.3 hard contact rate

It must be nice to be the Braves and be so loaded with young and promising talent. Soroka can’t even legally drink yet but he’s already performing as a quality pitcher in his short time in the majors. He’s displayed some pretty drastic reverse splits to this point but I’m not sure how much I want to chase the average righties are putting up so far. The fly ball and hard hit rates don’t speak to much upside for the Blue Jays. He’s been lights out to lefties, which probably takes Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak and Yangervis Solarte off the table. Tesocar Hernandez and Randall Grichuk are righties with power but they just don’t feel like a bet you need to take on this slate. If you only have $2,400 left to spend, Devon Travis could be a good fit on FanDuel.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Teoscar Hernandez, Randall Grichuk, Devon Travis

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Jaime Garcia, LHP

5.71 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 20.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .228 average, .339 wOBA, 48.8 fly ball rate and 41.9 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .286 average, .372 wOBA, 37.3 fly ball rate and 40.7 hard contact rate

Now we’re talking about an offense I want a piece of. The Braves public perception seems to have fallen off a bit which means they could be great against the grain plays. I bet you wouldn’t guess the team leader in wOBA against lefty pitching without Google because it’s none other than Tyler Flowers. He’s pretty expensive on FanDuel but his wOBA is an insanely high .571. The next highest belongs to Freddie Freeman at .472. Nick Markakis is a fine option and I still want to play one of my man crushes, Ozzie Albies regardless of his recent track record. He is expensive and may not be the best play in cash with a Coors game and two super aces still to go, but we’ll see. I have exactly zero faith Garcia can come though in this spot so you know how to be mad at if he throws six shutout innings.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, Ozzie Albies, Tyler Flowers

Secondary Options – Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte

Home Run Pick – Ozzie Albies

DFS MLB – White Sox at Indians

White Sox Probable Starter – Carlos Rodon, LHP 

3.60 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 23.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .222 average, .361 wOBA, 33.3 fly ball rate and 50.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .194 average, .319 wOBA, 47.8 fly ball rate and 26.1 hard contact rate

It’s been a tough schedule for Rodon in his first three starts since returning from injury because this will be the second straight time he has to face the Indians. His first start came against Boston in Fenway. The metrics actually look mostly promising for him and he’ll be a pitcher that we play at some point this season but it won’t be this evening. Cleveland is just too good and the fly ball rate to righty hitter has to be something to pay attention to. By the wOBA against lefties measure, we have one high-priced play and one salary saver. Francisco Lindor leads Cleveland in that metric and he took Rodon deep in the last start. One player that is almost never owned is Yan Gomes. He’s posted a .420 wOBA against southpaws so far and is just $2,900 on FanDuel. The big names for the Indians are all in play here but I’m unsure how heavy I would go. Rodon is a quality big leaguer but pitching against the Indians twice in a row is not a recipe for success.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Francisco Lindor, Yan Gomes, Jose Ramirez

Secondary Options – Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Jason Kipnis

Indians Probable Starter – Mike Clevinger, RHP 

3.15 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 21.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .216 average, .281 wOBA, 33.9 fly ball rate and 31.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .246 average, .299 wOBA, 37.3 fly ball rate and 32.6 hard contact rate

I readily admit I’m not always the best at predicting these things, but my hunch is the Clevinger/Rockies combo will be the most popular build in cash games on FanDuel tonight.  There’s a $2,000+ discount to Clevinger to the aces which can help build a better offense and Clevinger will be buoyed by the fact he destroyed this same lineup last time out. The White Sox are just striking out at such an absurd clip lately(28.8 percent over the past 14 days) it’s going to be hard to not gravitate to Clevinger. I don’t expect him to match his 11 strikeouts from last time but he’s still in position to have a dynamite start. The only two White Sox hitters I would take a shot at are their best two, Yoan Moncada and Jose Abreu. The latter did take Clevinger out of the yard in the last game.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu

Home Run Pick – Yan Gomes

DFS MLB – Tigers at Reds

Tigers Probable Starter – Matt Boyd, LHP 

3.23 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 19.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .194 average, .248 wOBA, 46.8 fly ball rate and 42.6 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .200 average, .277 wOBA, 47.0 fly ball rate and 32.5 hard contact rate

Is Matt Boyd a good pitcher? Some of the metrics would say no but his results haven’t been super terrible so far this year. Lefty hitters have a great fly ball and hard contact rate but don’t have an average and wOBA to show for it. This could be a spot where the chickens come home to roost, so to speak. You give up that amount of lay balls in Cincinnati and you’re begging for trouble. I’ll say I usually don’t get the Reds right but this should be a really good spot for him. Scooter Gennett is the best lefty on lefty hitter in their lineup and the flip side of the plate leader is Eugenio Suarez. Gennett and Suarez are expensive but Tucker Barnhart and his .445 wOBA against lefties is surely going to be totally unowned. I won’t play a pitcher like Boyd in a great ballpark against an offense that can rough him up.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Scooter Gennett, Tucker Barnhart, Eugenio Suarez

Secondary Options – Joey Votto(his price is high with little power), Scott Schebler, Adam Duvall

Reds Probable Starter – Sal Romano, RHP 

5.67 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 15.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .303 average, .371 wOBA, 31.9 fly ball rate and 38.7 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .225 average, .323 wOBA, 34.4 fly ball rate and 35.8 hard contact rate

The Tigers are worse off against righty pithing this year which narrows my interest in them to just a few hitters. Keeping in mind that Romano is simply not a good pitcher and is in danger of getting lit up by any lineup, I really am only looking at three hitters from Detroit. Jeimer Candelario and Nicholas Castellanos are just $3,200 and I can’t believe that Castellanos is that cheap coming off three home runs in two days. Candelario is better against lefties but Romano isn’t a pitcher to fear and struggles more against lefty hitters. Leonys Martin is about the only lefty that you can trust in the Detroit lineup and some might go towards Niko Goodrum. I don’t think he’s given us much evidence he’s a good hitter but I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if he did damage against Romano.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nicholas Castellanos, Jeimer Candelario, Leonys Martin

Secondary Options – Niko Goordum

Home Run Pick – Leonys Martin

DFS MLB – Dodgers at Cubs

Dodgers Probable Starter – Rich Hill, LHP 

6.20 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and 21.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .227 average, .304 wOBA, 29.4 fly ball rate and 35.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .313 average, .431 wOBA, 48.2 fly ball rate and 50.0 hard contact rate

These teams play a split double-header, so double-check lineups when using hitters tonight. That should always be the case, but just a heads up for this slate. I will basically never play Rich Hill like another Dodgers pitcher because the injury risk is abnormally high. This is an even stronger policy when Hill hasn’t pitched in about a month. There’s a report that you can see on FanDuel that he changed his mechanics during his rehab that could bring some better results. I’ll need to see prove of that before I totally buy in. Albert Almora might be my favorite play from this side of the game because he smashes lefties and he’s just $2,600. Kris Bryant also hits lefties extremely well but is over $4,000 and likely isn’t the best big spend on the slate. I wouldn’t go chasing the Cubs all that much because when his is on, he’s really good. He just hasn’t been on his game too often yet this year.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Albert Almora

Secondary Options – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras

Cubs Probable Starter – Mike Montgomery, LHP 

3.31 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 14.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .284 wOBA, 20.8 fly ball rate and 22.5 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .205 average, .257 wOBA, 30.4 fly ball rate and 27.9 hard contact rate

If you thought the ISO for some of the Yankees was good against lefties, you have to love the Dodgers as well because they also have six hitters with an ISO over .200 against lefties. Matt Kemp leads the pack at .347.  Yes, the metrics for Montgomery look pretty good but Kemp has a .347 ISO against southpaws. My one concern is if he plays the early game, I’m going to bet the Dodgers make me angry and sit him in the evening game. Regardless of whether Kemp is active, Kike Hernandez has to be a lock at $2,600 tonight. Montgomery is not this good and he’s got to have some regression coming. If you believe in the reverse splits, Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger carry a ton of upside. Muncy has seen his salary reach sky high heights and I’m hard pressed to invest over $4,000 in him this evening. Justin Turner and Chris Taylor could polish off any Dodgers stack .

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Kemp, Kike Hernandez, Justin Turner

Secondary Options – Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger

Home Run Pick – Matt Kemp, Chris Taylor if Kemp is out

DFS MLB – Red Sox at Twins

Red Sox Probable Starter – Chris Sale, LHP 

2.75 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 34.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .220 average, .260 wOBA, 20.7 fly ball rate and 25.8 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .186 average, .260 wOBA, 40.8 fly ball rate and 24.7 hard contact rate

This side of the game is quick and painless because I don’t roster hitters against pitchers like Sale. Now, I’m not a big tournament player so there is merit to taking a stab with one or two of the best Twins hitters against lefty pitching. I’m not going after that path in cash for sure and the only way I’m not playing Sale tonight is salary related. He’s in position to dominate There are a couple hitters that have good BvP data against Chris Sale, including Brian Dozier. He’s nothing more than a deep tournament play with his career three home runs against Sale. I wouldn’t put much weight into the data for Eddie Rosario and Logan Morrison seeing as how it’s 10 and 15 at-bats, respectively.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario

Twins Probable Starter – Jose Berrios, RHP 

3.51 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 25.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .211 average, .273 wOBA, 37.5 fly ball rate and 32.8 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .210 average, .265 wOBA, 39.3 fly ball rate and 28.2 hard contact rate

It’s always possible I regret it but I don’t really want to roster Red Sox hitters tonight. Berrios has logged a quality start in six of his last seven starts and he’s faced good offenses on top of that. The metrics don’t give us much help as far as where to head so if you want Red Sox hitters, I’d stick with the best hitters Boston has to offer. They should not be very highly owned and Mookie Betts would be a pivot off the most popular hitter in his price range. Much like the other side of the game, you can play these guys in a tournament. Berrios won’t be owned when Clevinger is basically the same price and a Red Sox stack likely wouldn’t be on many players radar. Other than that, I’m steering clear of this game.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mookie Betts

Secondary Options – J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi

Home Run Pick – Mitch Moreland

DFS MLB – Rays at Astros

Rays Probable Starter – Blake Snell, LHP 

2.58 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 27.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .130 average, .173 wOBA, 32.0 fly ball rate and 37.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .211 average, .298 wOBA, 39.4 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard contact rate

I have an unreasonable love for Blake Snell and couldn’t tell you why. I live in Pennsylvania and really don’t care about Rays baseball(sorry Tampa fans). Whatever the reason, Blake Snell is my man… but I can’t play him tonight. Houston has won 12 straight and the offense has been rocking through the vast majority of it. They’re at home and they rank very high against lefties so far this season. I won’t have ton of Astros exposure because I respect what Snell is capable of and there are better high-end spends. I’m going to keep pounding the drum for Max Stassi when he’s against a lefty if he plays. As far as a one-off goes, George Springer is he “cheapest” of the big name Astros and he has the highest wOBA of the big four.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Max Stassi, George Springer

Secondary Options – Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa

Astros Probable Starter – Justin Verlander, RHP 

1.61 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and 31.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .134 average, .209 wOBA, 58.1 fly ball rate and 24.7 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .178 average, .226 wOBA, 56.9 fly ball rate and 27.7 hard contact rate

The Rays got to Gerrit Cole last night, tagging him for four runs but I don’t expect that same outcome tonight. Verlander is right there with Max Scherzer as the best pitcher in baseball this season and you won’t see me having any Rays in my lineups. Wilson Ramos and C.J. Cron could potentially take advantage of the fly ball rate to righties but there seems little sense to play them outside of the deepest tournaments possible.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick –  George Springer

DFS MLB – Rangers at Royals

Rangers Probable Starter – Cole Hamels, LHP 

3.69 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 23.2 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .269 average, .336 wOBA, 27.5 fly ball rate and 34.2 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .221 average, .332 wOBA,  37.8 fly ball rate and 47.7 hard contact rate

The Cole Hamels trade chip tour makes a stop in Kansas City tonight and he’s actually a little interesting. The Royals are striking out a little bit more lately and their offense is made up of Whit Merrifield, Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez and a great description from Brian.

Yes, that was when we thought Merrifield might miss some time due to injury but the Royals are still beat up a little bit right now. Coincidentally, Merrifield is about the only hitter that I’d want to consider tonight. He’s only $3,100 and could fit nicely with some other high-end bats. The Royals couldn’t even hit Big Sexy Bartolo last night so that should tell you where the offense is right now. Don’t be shocked if Hamels score around 35 points on FanDuel tonight.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Whit Merrifield

Secondary Options – Salvador Perez, Mike Moustakas

Royals Probable Starter – Jason Hammel, RHP 

5.00 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 14.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .230 average, .304 wOBA, 48.5 fly ball rate and 48.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .324 average, .351 wOBA, 33.1 fly ball rate and 43.7 hard contact rate

I had Adrian Beltre in my sample lineup last night and wound up not using him only to see him hit a three run bomb. I might go right back to him because Hammel has been getting wrecked by righties and the price is definitely right for him tonight at $3,100. Elvis Andrus is fine once again as is Delino DeShields has really been hitting well lately and he can swipe a base when he gets on. I don’t think Hammel is any good and there’s not metric to support otherwise. Even the average and wOBA against lefties will increase if he keeps up the fly ball and hard hit rates he’s carrying right now. The Rangers are a great stacking option once again this evening especially after they came through last night.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, Delino DeShields

Secondary Options – Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara

Home Run Pick – Elvis Andrus

DFS MLB – Mets at Rockies

Mets Probable Starter – Jason Vargas, LHP 

7.39 ERA, 1.70 WHIP and 19.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .308 average, .433 wOBA, 46.9 fly ball rate and 31.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .312 average, .378 wOBA, 37.0 fly ball rate and 39.3 hard contact rate

I try not to really come down on one side or the other in this article I try to present the side of each game so it can help you guys build lineups based off stats and trends. Baseball is a fickle beast and even if a hitter has a good day at the plate with a hit and a walk, that’s not great for fantasy. Mike Trout can go 0-5 any night of the week. We can’t predict that. This spot is one of the best we have seen all season long and the Rockies have to come through. They just have to. If Vargas goes into Coors and throws a good game, it will break fantasy baseball. Nolan Arenado is $5,000 and Trevor Story is $4,800 and I want to play both of them in every single lineup I make. Arenado seems almost underpriced given the factors tonight.  Through their careers in Coors against lefties, Arenado has a .358 average and a 1.140 OPS while Story has a .292 average and a 1.005 OPS. I have no issue building a four man stack with DJ LeMahieu and Ian Desmond even in cash games. Vargas is going to get crushed.

Rockies Hitters to Target – ALL OF THEM 

Elite Options -Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, DJ LeMahieu, Ian Desmond

Secondary Options – Tom Murphy, Charlie Blackmon

Rockies Probable Starter – German Marquez, RHP 

5.13 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 22.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .276 average, .348 wOBA, 38.3 fly ball rate and 31.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .256 average, .348 wOBA, 28.6 fly ball rate and 36.2 hard contact rate

It’s an everyone in the pool kinda night for Coors Field because the Mets finally broke out for 12 runs last night and draw a mediocre pitcher tonight. The bad thing for Marquez is he’s worse against lefties and that’s where some of the best hitters are for the Mets. Brandon Nimmo seems like a borderline lock with his .456 wOBA and two home runs last night. Michael Conforto is right there as well, along with Asdrubal Cabrera and Todd Frazier. I don’t even have an issue with Wilmer Flores at just $3,000 which is the lowest hitters go in Denver. Many players don’t realize that Flores has a .379 wOBA against righty pitching.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brandon Nimmo, Wilmer Flores, Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera

Secondary Options – Todd Frazier

Home Run Pick – Any hitter in the top six in batting order from either team is on red alert to hit a home run. Seriously, this game might go bananas tonight.

DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Angels

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Matt Koch, RHP 

4.09 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 14.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .187 average, .271 wOBA, 36.4 fly ball rate and 46.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .310 average, .403 wOBA, 35.8 fly ball rate and 46.9 hard contact rate

I hate Matt Koch. There, I said it. Every time I pick a lane with this guy, he winds up doing the opposite of what I’m hoping for. Given his splits, we want righty bats which isn’t an issue with the Angels lineup. Obviously, Mike Trout is incredible and worth every penny tonight even though I won’t be playing him. Justin Upton is coming off a home run and is also a very solid play, along with Andrelton Simmons. Upton likely has the higher ceiling while Simmons is the safer floor play and the pricing reflects that. I’m not on Koch whatsoever tonight as he should get mauled in this spot. Even old man Albert Pujols is an option, but not one that I’m totally in love with.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mike Trout, Justin Upton, Andrelton Simmons

Secondary Options – Albert Pujols

Angels Probable Starter – Felix Pena, RHP 

*Career stats* 5.28 ERA, 1.88 WHIP and 15.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH -.233 average, .351 wOBA, 42.3 fly ball rate and 32.7 strikeout rate

Vs RHH -.262 average, .346 wOBA, 56.0 fly ball rate and 47.4 hard contact rate

We went with the career marks for Pena since he’s only pitched 2.2 innings this season. My two favorite plays are Jon Jay due to his salary and recent form and Paul Goldschmidt. Goldy has been ridiculous lately and it’s hard to figure Pena would be the man to stop him. I absolutely won’t use Pena for any reason and wouldn’t talk you out of other Diamondbacks hitters either. David Peralta is a hair overpriced for me but he’s still a solid play and I’m always interested in Jake Lamb when he’s got a mediocre righty on the mound. Arizona could be an interesting late night stack that could fly you up leaderboards.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Paul Goldschmidt, Jon Jay, David Peralta

Secondary Options – Jake Lamb

Home Run Pick – Mike Trout

DFS MLB – A’s at Padres

A’s Probable Starter – Paul Blackburn, RHP 

11.05 ERA, 1.77 WHIP and 8.8 strikeout rate (2 starts, 7.1 IP)

Vs LHH – .333 average, .334 wOBA, 22.2 fly ball rate and 22.2 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .348 average, .426 wOBA, 20.0 fly ball rate and 15.0 hard contact rate

It’s going to be interesting to see what’s going to give tonight. Can Blackburn prove he’s not a disaster at the major league level or could the Padres offense rise up and take advantage of a bad pitcher? What’s really weird is the fly balls and hard contact rates. I expected them to be through the roof but they’re actually really low. Seeing as how the Padres aren’t a good offense to start with, I think this is a spot that doesn’t require much attention. Blackburn isn’t this bad given some of his metrics and I’m not trusting the Padres on a slate this big. Eric Hosmer is the best bet but Travis Jankowski can always come through as well.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eric Homer

Secondary Options – Travis Jankowski, Corey Spangenberg

Padres Probable Starter –  Eric Lauer, LHP 

6.20 ERA, 1.98 WHIP and 18.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .342 average, .408 wOBA, 42.4 fly ball rate and 35.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .331 average, .404 wOBA,  35.0 fly ball rate and 43.0 hard contact rate

Chad Pinder should be total chalk after his monster outing on Saturday and I don’t really care. He’s far too cheap and makes life so much easier to fit in everyone you want to. He is listed as a third baseman which is fine because you can just slot him into the utility spot and still play Arenado in Coors. Marcus Semien would be my other favorite play but a guy like Khris Davis is too expensive tonight given the construction of this slate. There’s many other hitters in that salary range that I like better. It’s also wise to not that Davis has a .313 wOBA against lefties this season which isn’t all that great.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Chad Pinder, Mark Canha, Marcus Semien

Secondary Options – Khris Davis, Jed Lowrie, Stephen Piscotty

Home Run Pick – Marcus Semien

DFS MLB – Marlins at Giants

Marlins Probable Starter – Dan Straily, RHP 

4.23 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 19.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .269 average, .379 wOBA, 30.9 fly ball rate and 46.5 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .200 average, .298 wOBA, 42.1 fly ball rate and 49.2 hard contact rate

Straily has been up and down so far this season and while he is pitching in a massive ball park, I don’t think I’ll have a ton of interest. I also can’t pay for Giants hitters given the spots some offenses are in tonight. I mean, how can you play Brandon Crawford at $3,900 when you can find a couple hundred more and play a Coors bat? Heck, there’s cheaper options in that game, not to mention at the shortstop position. Andrew McCutchen is doing his thing but I won’t go there, although he did hit a home run off of Straily last week. This should be one of the lower owned games on the slate and I’ll have a hand in lowering that ownership.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Andrew McCutchen

Giants Probable Starter – Dereck Rodriguez, RHP 

4.34 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 18.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .275 average, .352 wOBA, 34.4 fly ball rate and 36.4 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .300 average, .346 wOBA, 43.3 fly ball rate and 38.7 hard contact rate

If you want to go against the grain, a Marlins stack could be the play late that pays off big. To be clear, I’m not trusting my fate on a 15 game slate to the Miami Marlins in one of the best pitchers parks in baseball. If you absolutely want to jam in a one-off play, it has to be J.T. Realmuto against lefty. I’m not going there even though the price is affordable. Rodriguez carries the same concerns we always have when a pitcher sees an offense in short order but he was serviceable in his start against the Marlins last week. I cannot bring myself to play anyone form this game, as no play is really a cut above any other game that I have interest in.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – J.T. Realmuto

Home Run Pick – None, I think pitching rules on the coast once again

DFS MLB FanDuel Sample Lineup – With an Ace

P- Mike Clevinger  

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C/1B – Victor Martinez

2B – Whit Merrifield

3B – Nolan Arenado

SS – Trevor Story

OF – Leonys Martin, Kike Hernandez, Stephen Piscotty

Utility – Chad Pinder 

As is always the case, thank you for reading. That goes for everyday but it’s especially true on the monster slates. It’s borderline impossible to play either Sale or Verlander and pair him with Arenado and Story. At least as of writing this, I tend to side with the Colorado hitters over an ace since Cleveinger has the same style of upside. Martinez isn’t my favorite play but Romano is susceptible to lefty hitters. Maybe the crafty vet can get a cheapie in Great American Ballpark. I think Merrifield will fly under that radar but Hamels has given up gobs of home runs. Usually against a lefty, Merrifield is a good bit more expensive. The outfield is one of the better plays tonight in Martin, a lefty specialist in Hernandez and Piscotty is a total punt option. Pinder is priced as a punt but he doesn’t hit lefties like it.

DFS MLB FanDuel Sample Lineup – Coors Field version 

P – Freddy Peralta

C/1B – Wilmer Flores

2B – Kolten Wong 

3B – Nolan Arenado

SS – Trevor Story 

OF – Brandon Nimmo, Charlie Blackmon, Kike Hernandez

Utility – Chad Pinder

Peralta is definitely not without risk but if you want all the bats, he’s got the upside to make it worth your while. This lineup is pretty self-explanatory. It’s Coors all the way with Pinder and Kike as salary savers. Wong is minimum price and lefties against Velasquez have some success. If Coors Field goes off and Peralta just gives you 25-30 points, this lineup could do some damage.

The Core – Chad Pinder, Coors Bats, Leonys Martin

Stacks To Consider – Coors Field, Nationals(at Baltimore), A’s(vs San Diego), Angels(vs Arizona), Yankees(vs Seattle), Dodgers(at Chicago) and Rangers(at Kansas City)

Next: DFS MLB Player Ranking and Slate Strategy for Tuesday

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.