MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tuesday, June 19th Main Slate
MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tout Transparency Report for Monday, June 18th
Before we get to today’s MLB DFS Bargain Bin recommendations, we’ll look back at how Monday’s MLB DFS Bargain Bin play suggestions did in the MLB DFS Bargain Bin Tout Transparency Report.
In the interest of transparency and tracking trends, I’ll do a quick review after each day in which I suggest value plays to see what went right, and what didn’t exactly work out as planned.
In yesterday’s Bargain Bin, I focused on three hitting spots, but they were concentrated over two games. One was the Rangers-Royals tilt, where I liked both offenses against Ian Kennedy and Bartolo Colon, respectively. I’d cited Kennedy’s issues with left-handed hitters at home in particular, as well as the Royals bullpen’s troubles against both handedness of hitter over the last month. Ironically, it was a right-handed bargain bat suggestion, Adrian Beltre, that delivered a big three-run blast off Kennedy, although lefty bat (but not a value suggestion due to price) Shin-Soo Choo did lead off the game with a homer against him. Bargain lefty bat Nomar Mazara did come through with three hits, an RBI and a run overall against a combination of Kennedy and the bullpen. DeIino DeShields enjoyed a multi-hit effort as well, showcasing his elite speed with an RBI bunt single late. Remaining suggestions Jurickson Profar, Joey Gallo and Ronald Guzman came up empty in terms of hits, while Rougned Odor was not in the lineup.
On the Royals side, their four suggested value bats — Hunter Dozier, Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield and Alcides Escobar — were each able to put something on the board, but it was only a single in each case. Colon had been allowing plenty of hard contact to right-handed hitters on the road throughout the season, and had been especially been blasted by either handedness over his first three starts of June. He had a handful of stumbles Monday, but limited the damage and was ultimately was able to escape by giving up only three earned runs on nine hits over six innings.
Things were much more exciting over in Colorado, where our Mets bargain bats came through with flying colors. Their success was a byproduct of the weaknesses we’d cited yesterday for both starter Tyler Anderson and the Rockies bullpen. Brandon Nimmo, who didn’t quite qualify as a value play due to his price, stole the show with a pair of homers, but bargain bat Wilmer Flores also took Anderson deep in the fourth inning for a solo home run. Meanwhile, Devin Mesoraco came through against reliever Jake McGee in the eighth with a two-run shot. The Mets ultimately pounded the Rockies ‘pen for nine runs overall, with bargain suggestion Amed Rosario (3-for-5, two doubles, two RBI, one run) playing a big part in exerting that punishment. Todd Frazier also came through in the late stages of the game with a single and a run, while Jose Bautista showed an especially discerning eye at the plate with three walks on the night.
One the pitching front, bargain arm Andrew Suarez turned in a rock-solid quality start that nevertheless failed to result in a win. Suarez was three outs away from a victory when reliever Hunter Strickland faltered in the ninth, blowing a 4-2 lead by giving up three runs. Irrespective of the no-decision, Suarez came through with seven strikeouts over 6.1 innings and only slipped up in the fifth by allowing a two-run single to Miguel Rojas. The extra win bonus would have been nice, but Suarez still provided a very strong return on his extremely affordable prices and became the latest southpaw to give the Marlins fits.
MLB DFS Bargain Bin Best Value(s):
Mesoraco, Rosario, Beltre deliver big numbers–Birthday boy Mesoraco celebrated in fine fashion with his aforementioned two-run shot at Coors, and he also added an RBI from a bases-loaded walk while scoring twice overall. Rosario was part of the late-inning decimation of the Rockies bullpen with his two-run double, while Beltre made his one hit count by sending it over the fence with two aboard.
MLB DFS Bargain Bin Biggest Dud(s):
Several Rangers bats quiet- The Royals bargain hitters weren’t spectacular by any means, either, but they at least each put a hit on the stat sheet. That wasn’t the case with a trio of Rangers, however, as Joey Gallo, Ronald Guzman and Jurickson Profar went a combined 0-for-12, although Profar was able to draw a walk and score.
MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tuesday, June 19th Main Slate
With our look back now complete, time to turn our attention to finding bargains for today’s slates!
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the day’s ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.
Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about both format and content:
- The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
- Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
- Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). However, there are certainly occasions, particularly with Yahoo, where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as a “XYZ site(s) special”.
- This version of the Bargain Bin isn’t a position-by-position breakdown. Rather, I try to identify where there is a particular vulnerability in terms of pitchers on the slate. Naturally, the amount of pitchers I suggest to target and the corresponding amount of value hitters to target them with will vary by slate.
- The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.
With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s take a look at where there’s cash to be saved Tuesday!
MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tuesday June 19th Main Slate
Three Bargain Pitching Spots to Consider
Matthew Boyd, DET at CIN– Yahoo ($37)/ FanDuel ($7,000)/ DraftKings ($7,600)/ FantasyDraft ($14,700)
The Reds sport a measly .200 average, .268 wOBA, MLB-low 0.71 ISO and 67 wRC+ against southpaws at home over the last month of play. They’ve had issues all season against that handedness at Great American Ballpark, as evidenced by a 24.5 percent strikeout rate and .222 average overall against lefties there. Meanwhile, Boyd has significantly improved his metrics across the board over last season, and he’s impressively allowing just a .199 average against him overall. That includes an impressive .220 BAA over 34 road innings, along with a .293 wOBA. Moreover, he’s been especially impressive away from Comerica Park recently, posting quality starts against none other than the Mariners and Red Sox in his last two of his last three road outings.
Mike Montgomery, CHC vs. LAD- Yahoo ($36)/ FanDuel ($6,800)/ DraftKings ($7,000)/ FantasyDraft ($13,900)
Speaking of quality starts, Montgomery has rattled off three straight and has allowed just three earned runs over his last four starts overall. Admittedly, his overall numbers at Wrigley don’t look pretty this season, but a large part of that is due to a rough start against the powerful Indians lineup on May 22 when he gave up six earned runs. He was impressive against the Pirates in Chicago in his last home start, and his price is such that he’s worth the risk as cheap SP2 on such a big slate.
Dereck Rodriguez, SF vs. MIA- Yahoo ($27)/ FanDuel ($6,300)/ DraftKings ($6,700)/ FantasyDraft ($12,700)
Rodriguez was effective against the Marlins down in South Florida his last time on the mound, churning out a quality start over 6.2 innings last Thursday. He gets another crack at them Tuesday in his pitcher-friendly home park, where he excelled in his one previous start (six strikeouts over six innings against the Phillies on June 3). The Marlins haven’t been awful against righties on the road over the last month, but they’ve struck out an elevated 22.9 percent clip over that stretch. They’ve been even worse over the entirety of the season, as they boast just a .286 wOBA and 25.0 percent strikeout rate overall against right-handed pitching on the road since Opening Day.
ALSO CONSIDER: Jameson Taillon, PIT vs. MIL– Yahoo ($37)/ FanDuel ($7,700)/ DraftKings ($8,400)/ FantasyDraft ($16,000)
MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tuesday June 19th Main Slate
Four Bargain Hitting Spots to Consider
Diamondbacks at Angels
Target: Angels SP Felix Pena and Angels bullpen
Metric(s) to Target:
Pena: .351 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters in two-plus MLB seasons/ .346 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters in two-plus MLB seasons/ 5.53 xFIP allowed to left-handed hitters in two-plus MLB seasons/2.42 HR/9 allowed to right-handed hitters in two-plus MLB seasons/47.4 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters in in two-plus MLB seasons.
Angels bullpen: .327 wOBA and 41.7 percent hard contact rate allowed to left-handed hitters at home over last month of play.
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Diamondbacks Bargain Bats to Consider:
Daniel Descalso-Yahoo ($18)/ FanDuel ($3,400)/ DraftKings ($3,700)/ FantasyDraft ($7,200)
Jon Jay-Yahoo ($17)/ FanDuel ($3,200)/ DraftKings ($3,900)/ FantasyDraft ($7,600)
Jake Lamb-Yahoo ($15)/ FanDuel ($3,500)/ DraftKings ($4,300)/ FantasyDraft ($8,100)
Ketel Marte-Yahoo ($15)/ FanDuel ($3,200)/ DraftKings ($3,900)/ FantasyDraft ($7,200)
Nick Ahmed– Yahoo ($9)/ FanDuel ($3,000)/ DraftKings ($3,400)/ FantasyDraft ($6,800)
Chris Owings–Yahoo ($7)/ FanDuel ($2,300)/ DraftKings ($3,000)/ FantasyDraft ($5,900)
Yahoo-FanDuel special:
David Peralta-Yahoo ($17)/ FanDuel ($3,600)
Rockies vs. Mets
Target: Mets SP Jason Vargas and Mets bullpen
Metric(s) to Target:
Vargas: .308 BAA and .433 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters/.312 BAA and .378 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters, including a .426 wOBA on the road/6.78 xFIP and 2.89 HR/9 allowed to left-handed hitters/ 28.0 percent line drive rate and 32.0 percent hard contact rate allowed to left-handed hitters on road/27.3 percent line drive rate and 52.3 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters on road
Mets bullpen: 8.22 ERA, .340 BAA and .446 wOBA (including six homers) allowed to left-handed hitters on road over last month of play/ 34.6 percent line drive rate and 43.0 percent hard contact rate allowed to left-handed hitters on road over last month of play.
Rockies Bargain Bats to Consider:
Carlos Gonzalez-Yahoo ($17)/ FanDuel ($3,700)/ DraftKings ($4,200)/ FantasyDraft ($8,400)
Chris Iannetta-Yahoo ($16)/ FanDuel ($3,300)/ DraftKings ($3,800)/ FantasyDraft ($7,600)
Gerardo Parra-Yahoo ($16)/ FanDuel ($3,400)/ DraftKings ($4,000)/ FantasyDraft ($7,400)
Tom Murphy-Yahoo ($9)/ FanDuel ($3,400)/ DraftKings ($3,700)/ FantasyDraft (7,500)
Mets at Rockies
Target: Rockies SP German Marquez and Rockies bullpen
Metric(s) to Target:
Marquez: .348 wOBA (including nine homers) allowed to left-handed hitters, including a .351 BAA and .435 wOBA allowed at home/ .348 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters, including .394 wOBA allowed at home/5.45 xFIP and 2.76 HR/9 allowed to left-handed hitters at home/24.2 percent line drive rate allowed to left-handed hitters at home/42.6 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters at home.
Rockies bullpen: MLB-high 12.58 ERA, .389 BAA and .499 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters at home over last month of play/26.0 percent line drive rate and 45.0 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters at home over last month of play.
Mets Bargain Bats to Consider:
Amed Rosario-Yahoo ($13)/ FanDuel ($3,000)/ DraftKings ($3,600)/ FantasyDraft ($7,500)
Jose Bautista-Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($3,100)/ DraftKings ($3,900)/ FantasyDraft ($7,300)
Wilmer Flores-Yahoo ($11)/ FanDuel ($3,000)/ DraftKings ($3,800)/ FantasyDraft ($7,700)
Yahoo/FanDuel/FantasyDraft specials:
Devin Mesoraco-Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($3,200)/ FantasyDraft ($7,200)
Asdrubal Cabrera-Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($3,800)/ FantasyDraft (8,000)
Yahoo/FanDuel special:
Todd Frazier-Yahoo ($16)/ FanDuel ($3,800)
Rangers at Royals
Target: Royals SP Jason Hammel and Royals bullpen
Metric(s) to Target:
Hammel: .324 BAA and .351 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters/4.85 xFIP allowed to right-handed hitters at home/5.04 xFIP allowed to left-handed hitters at home/27.3 percent line drive rate and 48.2 percent hard contact rate to left-handed hitters at home/25.9 percent line drive rate and 45.9 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters at home.
Royals bullpen: .365 wOBA (including nine homers) allowed to right-handed hitters at home over last month of play/MLB-high 51.3 percent hard contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters at home over last month of play/ MLB-high 9.68 ERA and .454 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters at home over last month of play/ 29.5 percent line drive rate and 53.1 percent hard contact rate allowed to left-handed hitters at home over last month of play.
Rangers Bargain Bats to Consider:
Joey Gallo-Yahoo ($17)/ FanDuel ($2,900)/ DraftKings ($3,900)/ FantasyDraft ($7,500)
Adrian Beltre-Yahoo ($16)/ FanDuel ($3,100)/ DraftKings ($3,700)/ FantasyDraft ($7,300)
Elvis Andrus– Yahoo ($16)/ FanDuel ($3,300)/ DraftKings ($3,600)/ FantasyDraft ($7,500)
Nomar Mazara-Yahoo ($14)/ FanDuel ($3,700)/ DraftKings ($4,100)/ FantasyDraft ($8,500)
Delino DeShields-Yahoo ($11)/ FanDuel ($3,100)/ DraftKings ($3,900)/ FantasyDraft ($7,200)
Rougned Odor-Yahoo ($11)/ FanDuel ($2,400)/ DraftKings ($3,400)/ FantasyDraft ($6,300)
Ronald Guzman–Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($2,600)/ DraftKings ($3,300)/ FantasyDraft ($6,500)
FanDuel/DraftKings/FantasyDraft special:
Jurickson Profar- FanDuel ($3,700)/ DraftKings ($4,000)/ FantasyDraft ($7,400)
Large-Field GPP Consideration: Value right-handed Astros bats vs. Rays SP Blake Snell
*Note: I would reserve this only for large-field tournaments where you’re looking to differentiate, but Snell might have some vulnerability against Astros righty bats in Minute Maid Park. He’s allowed eight homers to right-handed hitters on the road, along with a 36.3 percent hard contact rate. The likes of Yuli Gurriel and Max Stassi are therefore worthy of consideration, as they’re cheap and likely to be low-owned due to the matchup.
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